Preview: Tennessee
The Essentials
WHAT | 8 Michigan v. 9 Tennessee |
---|---|
WHERE | Charlotte, NC |
WHEN | 12:40PM |
THE LINE |
Michigan +1.5 KenPom: Michigan -2 (57% win) |
TELEVISION | TruTV. |
Do I need to explain the stakes? The winner gets to continue working toward a national championship (probably against Duke), while the loser fires Bruce Pearl.
Let's get it.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy:
Michigan v. Tennessee: National Ranks | |||
---|---|---|---|
Category | Michigan Rank | Tennessee Rank | Advantage |
Mich eFG% v. UT Def eFG% | 56 | 100 | M |
Mich Def eFG% v. UT eFG% | 158 | 226 | M |
Mich TO% v. UT Def TO% | 14 | 116 | MM |
Mich Def TO% v. UT TO% | 255 | 131 | TT |
Mich OReb% v. UT DReb% | 327 | 128 | TT |
Mich DReb% v. UT OReb% | 67 | 12 | T |
Mich FTR v. UT Opp FTR | 327 | 193 | TT |
Mich Opp FTR v. UT FTR | 34 | 118 | M |
Mich AdjO v. UT AdjD | 46 | 49 | - |
Mich AdjD v. UT AdjO | 48 | 71 | M |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
This is by FAR the least skewed matchup against Michigan in a long time. Considering Michigan has won most of those games despite their faults, that is a good thing, and the upward trend Michigan has been showing late in the season is no reason to doubt it. That said, there are still some areas in which Tennessee has a serious advantage.
I think of most SEC basketball teams as horrifically unskilled but very athletic squads. This means bad at shooting, but great at both types of rebounding. Tennessee fits the stereotype to a T. They are a great offensive rebounding team, a decent defensive team, but awful, awful, awful at shooting the ball (and not great at defending shots). Michigan must take advantage of this while simultaneously preventing Tennessee from capitalizing on their rebounding advantage. Fortunately rebounding can be improved with effort, whereas a team does or does not have good shooters.
Considering most of Tennessee's success was against the poor SEC (Michigan would be the second best defensive rebounding team in the conference!), maybe the Volunteers are good-not-great even in their strongest categories.
Keys for Michigan will include good defense on Scotty Hopson all over the court, and crashing the defensive boards to neutralize a lot of the Volunteers' other opportunities. Of course the age-old "big men stay out of foul trouble" rule applies.
Elsewhere
All sorts of stuff for NCAA Tournament game #1, most of it from UMHoops. Tennessee's players react to finding out Michigan is the opponent. Scouting report of the Volunteers, and Dylan's preview of the game.
Predictions
Barring crazy circumstances, this doesn't seem like a bad matchup for Michigan. The Volunteers are like a version of Michigan State or Minnesota that absolutely can't shoot the ball, which tips the court heavily in Michigan's favor. Darius Morris recordss a double-double as Tim Hardaway scores more than 25 points in a 68-61 Michigan win.
March 17th, 2011 at 10:36 PM ^
Bring 'em on. Meanwhile, the Spartans are getting crushed by UCLA.
March 17th, 2011 at 10:50 PM ^
The only thing holding them together down the stretch has been Lucas.
13 mins. left? 0 points on 0/8 shooting.
March 17th, 2011 at 10:44 PM ^
Most important game of the season until next game?
Cause we all know there will be a next game...
March 18th, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^
(and you know they do), a Michigan - Duke matchup will somehow be engineered for Sunday so that the Fab Five / Duke controversy can be hyped to supernova status.
Televisions will melt.
March 17th, 2011 at 10:48 PM ^
We need to key on Hopson and Tobias Harris. We should be able to keep them off of the boards and we should be able to score. Stop them, and we'll cruise to victory.
March 17th, 2011 at 11:06 PM ^
Wow, I am surprised at how unimpressive all of their numbers are (besides offensive rebounding), especially considering almost every national "expert" that I have seen has Tennesse winning. I like this matchup. So they have two stud players and not much else offensively? That sounds awfully similar to our team last year.
March 17th, 2011 at 11:07 PM ^
We'll all look at this tomorrow mid day and say, they can't shoot? WTF? :( arghh. Things like that.
March 17th, 2011 at 11:08 PM ^
Philip Fulmer will come out and say that Peyton Manning deserved to win this game
March 18th, 2011 at 12:36 AM ^
That the Tennessee checkered flag logo will confuse my brain with Purina's checkered logo:
Damn you Smokey:
What in the world is TruTV, anyway, and where can I find it?!?!
Heck, Wofford made a national network last night, and we're stuck on a station I've never heard of. What's with that? Is anybody worthwhile rebroadcasting later?
It used to be called CourtTV. Not sure if that helps or not
Please tell me there is?!
Not sure if you mean outside Michigan or not. The game is being broadcast on WTKA and I would assume the other usual stations on the network.
Outside Michigan, Westwood One is the national network. Go to this page to find a Westwood One station (which game each station will broadcast is unclear). You can also go to this page for a link to an online stream of the Westwood One radio broadcast.
March 18th, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
Or you can download the iheart radio app and listen to it on Wood 1300 AM out of GR (assuming you have an iPhone or iPad)
please?
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