You cannot have a lame duck coach and expect a decent recruiting class

Submitted by DesHow21 on

Most people here seem to be resigned to AT BEST a 6-7 win season this year. Virtually everybody is in agreement that RR deserves to at least finish out 2011 (albeit with a new DC).

The problem this creates though is that regardless of what happens in 2011, our recruiting class will go down the toilet. No top recruit is going to sign on to a program that is either

1. on the verge on firing the HC

2. or not confident enough to give him an extension. 

So therefore, unlike the popular opinion that DB should wait out through 2011 before canning RR or singing him to an extension, I say it needs to be done now. IF you believe in him give him a four year extension (with a zero dollar buyout clause if you need) or can him right now and lets overpay Harbaugh.

I am personally fine with both options. I think if we hire Harbaugh, he is going to be very successful coach here not because he is phenomenally better than RR but because:

1. He has the pedigree that will keep the freep type wolves at bay.

2. He has a VERY decent set of talent on offense to build.

3. He is smart enough to go get top flight defensive coordinator talent to shore up our weakness. 

 

ChiliDog

November 1st, 2010 at 10:02 AM ^

Before the Harbaugh dream starts he would have to be hired. Did Harbaugh already say if the position is available at Michigan he'd shit on whatever current program he's with in order to coach here? Is this an automatic assumption amongst most Michigan fans?

NoVaWolverine

November 1st, 2010 at 10:14 AM ^

Doesn't everyone know that lots of NFL teams will be talking to Harbaugh about a head-coaching job after this season? Teams don't want retreads like Cowher or Gruden (has anyone like that ever come back and actually won a title?) -- they want the next up-and-coming young guy, the next Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh.

If Jim Harbaugh is going to leave Stanford, why wouldn't he leave for the chance to coach at the highest level in the NFL and make enormous amounts of money? Particularly when two of the most storied and glamorous franchises in the league, the 49ers and the Cowboys, will almost certainly make him a serious candidate?

Quail2theVict0r

November 1st, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^

I think it's just an assumptioin. He did grow up a Michigan fan and he did play for Michigan - so it's not a huge stretch to think that his dream job would be the Michigan job; despite what the NFL offers him. It isn't always about money. Brandon took a serious pay cut to come perform his presumed dream job as the Michigan AD. And it isn't like the pay as a Michigan HC is chump change.

NoVaWolverine

November 1st, 2010 at 11:15 AM ^

Hasty comment on my part.  Now that I look into this a little more,  I guess Tom Coughlin would be another good counterexample -- took Jacksonville to two AFC title games, then came back and led the Giants to a Super Bowl win.  And Dan Reeves led the Falcons to a Super Bowl loss after taking the Broncos to 4 SB losses. And the biggest retread of all, Dick Vermeil, won a Super Bowl with the Rams after losing one with the Eagles two decades before.

I should've been more specific -- when I cited Gruden and Cowher, I was thinking of ex-coaches who have Super Bowl rings coming back with another team. (Belichick only had one winning season out of five in Cleveland, and of course Coughlin, Reeves, and Vermeil hadn't won titles.)  Think of Mike Holmgren in Seattle; Joe Gibbs in his second tour with the Redskins; Ditka with the Saints.  None of those guys won another ring, and I think despite all the speculation about guys like Gruden and Cowher, most NFL teams looking for a new coach now would rather find one of these young rising stars, and Jim Harbaugh is certainly among that group.

Hannibal.

November 1st, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^

He has supposedly said that Michigan is his dream job, so basically, yes.  And it wouldn't be "shitting" on Stanford for him to take the job.  Probably 99% of all coaching hires are of somebody who is already under contract somewhere else.

Don

November 1st, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^

I've been making this argument for weeks and weeks now. There is an abundant amount of information provided by Jim Harbaugh's pie hole itself that Stanford is indeed where he wants to be, but it seems as though the large majority of the Michigan fan base is convinced that all David Brandon has to do is waggle his finger in the direction of Palo Alto and Harbaugh will drop everything he's doing and come back east. It's just like all the confident predictions before the season started that we'd be 9-3 or 10-2: the triumph of hope over reality.

DesHow21

November 1st, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^

"his vote of confidence" then he is a goner. If a coach says "He is where he wants to be", then you might as well book the movers. 

You are correct in stating that JH isn't sitting beside the phone holding his breath. DB will have to ask nicely and pay him 5 million minimum to get him. I think he is worth every penny. 

readyourguard

November 1st, 2010 at 11:06 AM ^

I have said the same thing to everyone who has brought up his name to me.  I am not convinced Harbs would pack up and leave Stanford just because we come calling.  I think he's on a mission to own the Pac10.  Palo Alto is a beautiful and familiar place to him.  I'd venture to say that every smart kid in America would consider playing for him at Stanford.

I just don't get a sense that he's coming to Michigan.

readyourguard

November 1st, 2010 at 11:15 AM ^

Frankly I agree with you.

That's where Bill Martin failed miserably, imo.  There are rules against tampering but there are channels for passing secret notes without getting caught.  I would have expected Martin to be familiar with "back room deals" but maybe I overestimated him.

Note from Brandon to Harbs:

Do you like me?

___ Yes

___ No

"Give to Melissa at lunch and she'll give it to Johnny on the school bus.  He lives next door to me and will give it to me when he gets home."

Yooper

November 1st, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^

he is waiting for the year to play out, which means, despite what Brandon has said, there is probably a magic number in his mind.  Going 1-7 or 2-6 in the Big 10 this year with no meaningful victories, will, I think, make it difficult for Brandon to stay with RichRod, as much as I don't want to go through a transition yet again.

D.C.Blue

November 1st, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^

It all boils down to whether DB can find someone this off season. AND we need to see what happens the rest of the season, this could all be a very different conversation with 2 or 3 more wins.  Anything is possible.

 I gotta admit, after what RR has gone through just trying to get accepted here, I'm not sure many coaches would want to take the chance.  Maybe Harbaugh but that is assuming that he would leave Stanford.  You could throw out chizik but the same applies there. Although I would love Gus' aggressive play calling.  I believe you'll see an entirely different team next year and no I didn't say that this pre-season.  Although they are few and far between, there are some positives if you look hard enough.

Moleskyn

November 1st, 2010 at 10:29 AM ^

Let's not lose sight of the fact that most people (on this board!) at the beginning of the season expected Michigan to be a 7, maybe 8-win team this year. With 4 games left, 7-8 wins is still very feasible, and if it happens, that would be progress. Progress is good.

Whoever was doing the color commentary for Joe Buck on Saturday night during Game 3 of the WS made a comment that stuck with me. It went something like: "Coaches need to coach, but it's the players who need to execute." That's a quite obvious statement of how any team needs to operate in order to succeed and, when applied to Michigan, we need to realize that our players (particularly our defense) are simply not at a place where they can execute at a high level. They are young and inexperienced and I argue that there is no amount of coaching that could have enabled them to execute at a high level this season. The only way to fix the problem of our defense is for the coaches to continue coaching and give the young guys time to develop. You say we've had enough time, but I disagree. We have so many freshman on our defense. If in 4 years Christian, Avery, Talbott, Vinopal, Johnson, Robinson, and Black are still not able to execute at a high level, then I would agree that Rodriguez is not a good coach and it would be detrimental to our program to keep him. Only then could you point to our coaching staff and say "It is completely their fault that our defense sucks." Until then, I will continue to support Rodriguez and this team, and will continue to suffer through the labor pains of a young team.

arod

November 1st, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^

IL looks doubtful, and even Purdue looks like it's going to be challenge.  But even counting those two as wins, I cannot image this team beating Wisconsin or OSU. 

 

Also, I want to ask:  how many of you who picked us to go 7-5 also picked us to win less than 4 conference games?  How many picked us to finish fucking 8th in the conference?  I don't remember a lot of people in pre-season discussing the how only the trainwrecks that are Indiana and Minnesota would keep us from being the worst team in the Big Ten.

bronxblue

November 1st, 2010 at 10:33 AM ^

I totally agree, but unfortunately that is the reality.  Win the next 2 games, and I think DB should make a move either way with goodwill high.  But lose the next few games, and maybe it is time for a change just because of the baggage.  Losing on the road to PSU at night isn't horrible, but losing 7 straight games (or even 6 of 7) will leave a stink on the program that might be hard to expunge even with a contract extension.

jblaze

November 1st, 2010 at 10:35 AM ^

the Weis example shows that you can. Also, 3 other main points:

1) The season isn't over. We can still beat Illinois and Purdue (let's face it, they are average at best).

2) Which existing coach would leave their job and come to Michigan mid-season? None, it hasn't happened before. This may happen before a bowl, but not during the season.

3) Who would be the interim head coach? The staff (except for GERG) are all RR's guys and would presumably stick with him.

jrt336

November 1st, 2010 at 10:46 AM ^

RR isn't magically going to have a defense good enough to win 9 games next year. The D will suck almost as much, and we're going to have a tough schedule.

JonSobel

November 1st, 2010 at 11:00 AM ^

Talk about lame duck... if someone with a coaching record like Bump Elliot gets 10 years, why is everyone pulling the trigger so early on Rodriguez?  Sometimes, the right set of circumstances comes together and everything falls apart for a while.  Sometimes it's because someone isn't good at coaching, and sometimes, Angry Michigan Every Position Hating God strikes with fury and not only hurts but sends people packing.

Rodriguez has a track record of winning wherever he goes.  Not just some places... everywhere.  We have an offense that is absolutely electric, and isn't just doing that against crap defenses.  We're lighting up the "best" defenses in the Big Ten, a conference known for defenses.  If we can manage to get even a mediocre defense in place, the wins won't just come quickly, they'll be decisive.  If we're dropping 28 points and 500 yards on a good Iowa defense, AND we're dropping 17 points, 350 yards on Sparty with two end zone interceptions, AND we're running around Penn State like they aren't even on the field most of the night, how can you not see this turning out well when the defense gets to mediocre?  And it will get to mediocre with time.

And the scariest part is that when the defense gets to mediocre, and TOP balances out more like it should, the points we will score will continue to go up from where we are now.  Think about that.  We dropped 31 on Penn State this past weekend, made it look easy, and had the ball for a full quarter less than they did.

Just stop panicking.  It will turn around.  I'm sorry, but as it stands, Harbaugh just is not the answer.  And to bring him in now blasts another nuclear bomb in the program as it will take years to get Harbaugh-type players in here (one of which is NOT Denard).  And those who are complaining now might not be complaining or making things miserable then, but there's always plenty of people who will take your place.  It won't get any easier, and people only get less patient.  To throw in the towel after year three or four is Notre Dame to a tee.  To let coaches develop and be given ample time to prove themselves is Michigan.  Need I remind you that we're the same school that kept Tommy Amaker for SIX years.  SIX!

Our coach deserves our support.  He isn't Dantonio.  He isn't Tressel.  He isn't Hope, or Bielema, or Zook, or Saban, or any other number of villainous coaches you complain about on here incessantly.  He deserves your support and mine.  And he should be given enough time to recruit without the axe swinging above his head so that we can see what this system can really be and how far it can take us.

bringthewood

November 1st, 2010 at 11:40 AM ^

Grasping at straws.  Despite the awful performance at M RR has a much better track record and has won more big games than Harbaugh.  As much as we suck I think a change would bring on another 2-4 year decline unless the HC runs a similar offense to RR.  I'm as unhappy as anyone but I say let's give him more time.  We're crying like a bunch of idiot talk radio callers.

jmblue

November 1st, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^

I have some misgivings about Harbaugh as a person, but I have none as a football coach.  Every data point suggests that he's very, very good.  He went 29-6 at the University of San Diego.  At Stanford he inherited a 1-11 team and has gone 4-8, 5-7, 8-5 and now 7-1.  He's gone 3-1 against USC.  This year they have a good chance of going to a BCS bowl, which is a remarkable achievement given their academic restrictions.  The only questions about the man have nothing to do with football.

dahblue

November 1st, 2010 at 4:11 PM ^

RR has a much better track record and has won more big games than Harbaugh

RR is 0-5 against his two biggest rivals (MSU and OSU).  He took the winningest program in history to its worst two seasons ever and garnered NCAA sanctions.  Harbaugh has turned a garbage team to a powerhouse and is recruiting in the top 10.  Ummm...?  They are the opposite of each other.

Also, let's dispense with the "change would bring another 2-4 year decline" talk.  Just because RR brought failure doesn't mean other coaches would.  Further, even a pro-style coach like Harbaugh would be able to have a smooth transition.  Just look at our recruits, more than half have offers from Stanford!  Even Tate was a Harbaugh recruit.  Besides, RR has set the bar pretty low.

Daytona Blue

November 1st, 2010 at 11:43 AM ^

Not sure what people mean when they say they have seen great progess.  Our defense is worse, our special teams are worse and decision makeing is worse.  Granted offense is much better, but only one thing getting better while all others are worse is not progress, that is regress.

psychomatt

November 1st, 2010 at 12:41 PM ^

IF you believe in him give him a four year extension (with a zero dollar buyout clause if you need) ...

(bold & italics added)

My brain is beginning to hurt.

jmblue

November 1st, 2010 at 3:04 PM ^

Virtually everybody is in agreement that RR deserves to at least finish out 2011

Virtually everybody?  What posts are you reading?  I think I speak for a fair number of fans when I say that RR has the next four games to earn another year.  If we lose out, he needs to go.  If he wins one more, he's on the bubble.