WR Situation, Passing More, Recruiting and More
This week Sam Webb has been banging the drum about how little we're using the WRs. Perhaps that's because we're planning on passing all over Piscataway and he knows it, and he wants to look like a genius :) Perhaps it's because he has legitimate concerns about our ability to recruit and keep on the roster top WRs and QBs, as he's indicated, because of our run heavy offense. He's indicated it's a factor in the Jaydn Davis's recruitment and has mentioned it enough times to make me think there's some concern internally about keeping WRs on the roster.
Coming into the season we thought the offense would carry us, Corum would be good, and the deep and talented WR room would show out if McCarthy won the starting job.
So far this year, our main WRs are at:
- Ronnie Bell > 482 yards > 39 catches > 1 TD
- Roman Wilson > 250 yards > 17 catches > 2 TD
- Cornelius Johnson > 232 yards > 16 catches > 3 TD
- Andrel Anthony > 73 yards > 6 catches > 0 TD
- AJ Henning > 60 yards >. 6 catches > 0TD
Our trio of freshman look to be headed for redshirts? Or if not aren't getting any run, combining for 3 catches.
At this point in the season, we've thrown for 1,790 yards vs running for 1968 yards.
About 60% of our offensive plays have been runs, vs 40 % of our plays are passes.
A lot of these WR stats came in the first three games as well (except for Ronnie Bell).
Looking around the top teams, Ohio State has thrown for 2,542 yards (+752 yards), Tennessee is at 2827 yards (+1037), Georgia has thrown for 2625 yards (+835 yards). OSU has two WRs with nearly 50 catches each, Tennessee has one nearing 50 catches and their top 5 pass catchers are all WRs, and Georgia's top receiver is TE Brock Bowers, and they have two other non-WRs in their top 5 with another TE and RB getting many catches.
Overall is looks like top teams give the ball to their best players - Bowers for UGA, the WR duo at OSU, Blake Corum at UM,
So - is this a real problem? Are we just maturing into a "Wisconsin But Talented" offense? Will we see WRs show out the last few games of the season? Will we just keep taking what the defense is giving us? How would feel if we settle into this identity and end up with game manager QBs and above average but not elite WRs? What's your prediction for this week in Piscataway - any WRs have a 100 yard game?
November 4th, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
On balance you can expect that dude knows a lot less than you give him credit for.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
Of course we play to win the game, and we are doing just that....But I am surprised by the lack of passing downfield. It also seems like we're scared to throw into the end zone when were' in the red zone. Run, run, throw in the flat....field goal.
I always felt bad for DPJ and Nico because they deserved an offense that aired it out to them with over 100 targets a season. I thought we'd clear that hurdle with Weiss/McCarthy, but it doesn't seem like that is in the cards. I hate to say it, but why would a prominent WR come to Michigan until we show that we can put them in a position to go to the NFL? I get that DPJ and Nico are there, but it is because they are just too good....
November 4th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
My personal opinion on this is it's an issue of the last 5 games:
-MSU - Played with a light box presumably in an effort not get boat raced ("not in the face strategy" as Brian called it)
-PSU - Had great athletes in the secondary and didn't load the box very much either. We were having huge success on the ground, and it was as close to a "win at all costs" game as we've had, so take what makes you efficient.
-IU - Did stack the box and was the passing game's best day in Big Ten play. 18 WR receptions and 227 WR yds.
-Iowa - As we know, a very good defense that makes their living off of turnovers. This was definitely a day to play it safe with the first road game for a young starter, and the O was efficient with only 8 WR receptions.
-Maryland - Can't really explain away this one, as MD does not necessarily have a great pass D, but it was our first real game of the season, and more of a pass oriented team, so their D might reflect that. Still 243 yards for Corum is hard to deny when you're playing your first real competition.
I mention this, but I also think you combine it with our WRs not getting great separation, and McCarthy "game managing" (which is a skill, especially for a gunslinger like him) and throwing to the open receiver, which has most often been Schoonmaker and Bell.
I'm hopeful that Rutgers and Nebraska are opportunities to make something happen here. Rutgers, I believe, will stack the box and their offense isn't much to be concerned about from a strategy perspective, and Nebraska's secondary is woeful.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^
I agree that the next 2 games provide opportunities to open up the passing game. I would expect either of these games should still be a "comfortable win" even with a interception or 3 so M can air it out without sweating a potential loss. MSU, PSU, and (maybe even) Iowa did NOT fit in that category.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^
I regularly see people on the board mention surprise and frustration about a lack of throws above intermediate routes. Could it be the coaches have less confidence in the accuracy of the QB throwing beyond 20 yards? The long ball has not been even okay. If his accuracy is in question, why risk it when it isn't needed? Will they need it? Probably but, until then, the return on risk seems low. I am hoping they are working on it in practice, of course, but he may not be there yet.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
"My personal opinion on this is it's an issue of the last 5 games"
Harbaugh has never had a WR or TE in college with a 1000 yard season.
Not at Michigan. Not at Stanford.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
The real.issue is that our OL and run game is so good that it becomes silly not to pound it over and over, and this might be the fallout. I expect a few to leave, and it sucks.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^
Well let's not just look at OSU, GA and TN, let's also look at e.g. Clemson. Clemson has thrown for 1,889 in 8 games, less than 100 yards more than Michigan (on 5 more attempts per game). Michigan is also averaging more points per game. So while we have not let it loose, we are not dramatically lower than some other top schools. Does this mean that Clemson is not going to recruit any good WRs?
November 4th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
The NFL is going to find talented receivers if they are playing at Michigan.
November 4th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
I like to win boring vs Rich Rod 67-65 games
November 4th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
Look. It's the middle of the game and you are calling the play. There are certain exigencies. How would you prioritize:
1. get the first down as efficiently as possible given everything on the field right now.
2. do what some recruit may or may not want to see.
You don't call a play based upon some future hypothetical. The criticism is way overblown when Corum keeps advancing the ball. These decisions are made in real time. It's similar to "how can we recruit another world class punter if we don't punt?"
November 4th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
I have noticed the last few games that there are plenty of open receivers that are more downfield than the ones that JJ throws to. It makes me think that JH is keeping things as vanilla as possible to create this mindset of “Michigan can’t throw deep” then we will see it open up in Columbus and then more in the playoffs. And yes, we are going to the playoffs
November 4th, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^
Sure, and like I said, we play to win the game. It would also be amazing publicity to see Blake at the Heisman presentation.
We can't have it both ways though. If Michigan is at the 10 yard line, I expect us to run and throw a short pass near the LOS or slightly beyond, and we almost always prove me right. There is an obvious cause and effect. If I'm a prominent WR, I would hesitate considering Michigan since NFL teams do throw into the end zone in the red zone almost every series.
I'm not saying we just air it out, but I'm also saying we are one of the least attractive programs in CFB for WR stats and opportunities for film that the NFL wants to see. That is the reality.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
I'm not saying we just air it out, but I'm also saying we are one of the least attractive programs in CFB for WR stats and opportunities for film that the NFL wants to see. That is the reality.
we're also one of the most attractive for OL, DL, DB, TE and RB so .... go with your strengths i guess.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
Exactly. We have some of the best RB’s in the nation behind a great line. We are 8-0 right now doing what we do best.
As a coach don’t out think it. Keep winning and do what you do best
November 4th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
It is hard to complain about things when we are undefeated. Sometimes, I wish we were more explosive but it has also been fun winning games and hanging banners. I still think we will open it up more. JJ has only started 6 or 7 games in his career. Harbaugh believes the first way to win a game is by not losing it. The more trust they gain in JJ, the more they will open it up. The coaches have a plan and it has worked.
November 4th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
I don’t think it’s complaining to acknowledge that the offense is one-dimensional. That will work against 90% of college football, but it often gets you beat once you face the Ohio States, Georgias, and Alabamas of the world. Even Devin Gardner has said as much on MMQB.
Eventually we’re going to face a team that can shut down our run and when we do we’ll have to pass. Not having rep’d it very much all season doesn’t prepare you for executing when the pressure is on.
November 4th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Agree. But a Michigan tradition is never being more concerned than when things go surprisingly well.
The redzone and overall offensive style raise a lot of questions and potentially point to issues since the point output don’t match the yardage output. The issues are either 1) just a function of a very efficient but not explosive team, 2) questionable play-calling when the field shrinks, 3) saving plays to surprise OSU, 4) poor execution by the offense in the toughest area.
Hopefully JH is setting up #3. I don’t believe FGs will carry the day in Columbus. Last year was a clear victory with 6 TDs/0FGs essentially from Haskins while the D created tremendous pressure with Hutch and Ojabo. Can we deliver both this year without those 3?
November 4th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
I think we play to win the game. Considering what the defense is giving us, we will run the best offensive gameplan to beat that defense.
Right now our best assets are the OL and RBs. You have to lean on them to win games. JJ is slowly showing growth and confidence at QB. I think we will see more downfield connections over the next few games.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
Running game is too strong. First world problem. I would like to see them air it out a little more in these next three games though. In case they really need it in Columbus.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
PSU would probably vote for more passing, less run blocking/Corum.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
It's almost like you haven't listened to any of the podcasts or read any of the analysis.
Like Seth said on WTKA, the running game is so consistent and efficient, if it's 2nd and 6 and you know you can make it 3rd and 1 or just get the first down, it makes it harder to risk 3rd and 6.
And like Brian said (and wrote in this week's UFR), despite Corum being the Unstoppable Run God that he is, teams are still playing soft, 2 high coverage against us. So the runs continue to be the smarter plays.
At some point someone is going to stack the box and JJ will have a chance to go off. My bet is on Illinois.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
Also this year feels like a Bizarro World version of some of the Borges offenses--instead of us constantly running into 7, 8, 9 man boxes with no success, we just keep running into sparse boxes and the defense refuses to adjust.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
This. It's weird. We were screaming about running into stacked boxes. Now our running game is more lethal than ever and opponents are choosing it.
But it's not just that. As Brian pointed out on the UFR, Michigan State -- worst secondary in the B1G -- blanketed our receivers.
If they want to get thrown at, getting open would help a fair bit.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
That's what I saw as well...no where for JJ to go with the ball.
Are our routes too predictable?
Maybe the WR's are so used to running routes and not getting thrown to that they aren't running them as hard.
The fact that it's JJ's first year is a factor too...freshman mistakes at that position can cost you the game. I hope our stud Freshman WR's stick around until next year because I believe JJ's going to go off.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
I don't have any problem with the playcalling or the results - we're taking what the defense gives us and playing to our strengths. I was just commenting on Sam's assertion that our lack of passing is hurting our recruiting and may be affecting guys not the roster sticking around at the WR position and trying to see how much of a "problem" it really is. Doesn't seem like we are that far off what Tennessee or Georgia is doing. One top WR getting a lot of target (granted Ronnie has less than their top guys) and going the ball to our RB a lot because he's our best player. Also we've missed some big plays in the pass game that could have narrowed the gap if they'd hit. I'm happy with the 8-0, I think I'm mostly in the "just win" camp, but I found it strange that this narrative has come up a ton this week, particularly with Sam.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:10 PM ^
I listened to most of his show this week. He did point out if portal or recruitment will be a problem although he emphasized he does not know of any problems right now. I did not hear him say anything about QB recruiting in that context. I might have missed it.
I am going to throw it out there as a comparison. Mind you I am not saying we are Bama. But Saban ran the ball quite a bit and also had his team great defense a while back before he jumped on to more passing style offense. During those times, he had some great running backs but he also had good WRs. So, the problem projected by Sam, which he said is his opinion, could happen, it is most likely solved if we keep winning. As long as we can throw when we need to and throw it well, we will probably overcome WR recruiting concerns
November 4th, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
The perception is that UGA and UT are willing to sling the ball. Especially UT. Why would the touted WR recruit that just came up (drawing blank on the name atm) choose UM over UT? To block? I think some criticism is warranted for the lack of throwing plays. What if UM needs it in order to beat OSU? Are we, as fans, assuming they’re holding back for OSU to unleash the full potential? I personally do not think so. I think this is UMs identity and not sure WRs are as great as expected. The more jarring aspect, is that Andrel Anthony plays 60% of snaps, yet has been targeted a few times? I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer, but I think showing UM is willing to throw (this is what we expected preseason with JJ) would be more attractive to WR talent. There should be a fine balance, but when WRs can get separated in cover 2, it’s hard not to use BTG as he is just dominate.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^
Georgia is an interesting one. 3 of their top 5 pass catchers are TEs and their RB. And if I had Brock Bowers, I'd sling it to him too. But not exactly wide receiver U, either. My thought was these teams are taking advantage of their best players. OSU has good RBs, but their WRs are elite. Georgia has good WRs, but their TE is elite. Michigan has good WRs, but our RB is elite?
November 4th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Not worried about what we've done to date as passing/rushing yard are nearly equal. We also don't run a hurry up offense, so likely run fewer plays than most teams. We're also 8-0.
That said, I'd love to see us air it out a bit the next 2 weeks and also give Corum a rest. Don't want him dinged up for OSU. We needed JJ to beat Georgia and he wasn't ready. Would like to see him more ready this year if we need him.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
Could not agree more on resting / saving Corum. Knock on wood , but as much as we use him it’s amazing that he hasn’t run into any injury issues of any kind. Against Rutgers, if we are up by 3-4 scores, I would like to see him on sideline cheering on RB3 , 4 and 5
November 4th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
There’s a lot of non recruiting reasons we should start throwing the ball more even if the coverage calls for a run (especially in games we’re not going to lose; I can understand taking what the defense gives you and pounding the rock vs. PSU). Defenses are not stacking the box against OSU and are playing safeties deep and they’re still able to carve teams up and down the field. JJ has only 5 conference games under his belt so he needs all the live game reps he can get to grow. 3rd & longs are going to be tough to convert in the Shoe if we never let our offense get reps against those coverages on 1st and 2nd down in tune up games. And if OSU forces us to throw the ball, we’re not just going to be able to turn that part of the offense on all of a sudden without live game reps. Giving Corum 30 carries a game isn’t sustainable and he needs a rest the next 2 weeks. And then you bring in the recruiting element as well as trying to keep our WR room intact and it seems screamingly obvious that we should throw the ball more.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
OSU has been putting a lot of points up, but it's a tad deceiving and I wouldn't quite characterize it as "carv(ing) teams up and down the field." They did that vs MSU, yes, a notably bad (and banged up, at the time) back seven. But a lot of their points vs Iowa and Penn State were generated by the defense getting turnovers, pick-sixes, short fields. They were even losing with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter vs Penn State despite a +3 turnover margin at the time. They could not run the ball on a PSU defense we absolutely paved.
OSU has been kinda bad at staying on schedule, in a lot of 3rd and longs because their offensive line is still not great and their running game is very inconsistent. They are able to convert an inordinate amount of 3rd and longs because of their skill position talent, yes, but we will probably present the best pass rush they have seen and it could very well burn them.
Their biggest question on defense is also their secondary, mostly due to injury, so if they aren't healthy by then I don't know if they will force us to throw the ball as much as people keep predicting our opponents will do (which, somewhat surprisingly, they mostly haven't)
November 4th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
Excellent post BTB. +100 if I could. These are my reasons for wanting to see more downfield passing.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
This has been a (minor) concern of mine as well, though it does seem that, other than Indiana, teams are still trying to take away our downfield passing game more than loading the box. Jim is certainly happy to take the yards + TOP in the meantime to slowcook and tenderize teams, and my hope is that we will adjust quickly if our opponents adapt.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
I'd like to see 3 WR each have 100 yds or more and take your pick. Roman Wilson should have had a lot more targets his way. He's been steady at least early in the season. I did miss one game but it near or at 100% healthy now.
My hope is Michigan gets over 350 yds in the air and 250-300 yds on the ground against Rutgers. If JJ McCarthy isn't the great passer we've al been waiting for, then who is? It is well pass the time to air it out. These last 4 games should have an average of 300 yds passing.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
well, keep hoping and wishing because harbaugh has been a coach for a long time and has never had that as a game plan, and most likely never will.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^
Yea thasts not gunna happen, expect to see corum get 30+ carries against Rutgers. Heck id even say that michiga will try to run against OSU all day long. Passing 40 times a game just isnt in this offenses DNA
November 4th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Often in the past we have seen receivers open but have not had a QB who could consistently get them the ball. We have not, especially in recent games, seen receivers running open, at least I don't recall screaming at the TV for the QB to throw the ball. This is how defenses are playing us, as noted in the feature articles, and perhaps, falls a bit on the receivers themselves.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
We didn't pass it that much last year either and we kept all of our WRs and brought in 3 highly touted WR recruits. It's possible 2 straight years being run-dominant matters a lot more than just one year of it. It's also possible that it matters a lot to specific players (Jadyn) and not others. But it's also possible Sam is making more of it than he should (possibly because he's talking a lot to the specific players it matters to?)
November 4th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
This thread is proof Michigan fans cannot ever be happy with the state of their program. 8-0 and we are trying to discover new things to be afraid of in our psycho mind palaces.
November 4th, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^
It's an Ohio State looms thing.
Which is kind of a shame. This has been a nervous undefeated season, more than it has been an enjoyable undefeated season.
The other times when we have been undefeated this late, we were not as paranoid about OSU as we are now. We thought we had an advantage over them (1992, 1997), or at least matched up evenly with them (All of the 1970s, 2006).
November 4th, 2022 at 3:40 PM ^
i disagree. not nervous at all. fully expected to be 11-0 going into the giant toilet in columbus.
but I agree with you on OSU. last year felt like "we have a chance against OSU" and this year is more of a "things need to go well" feeling. Still think we win just because the universe owes us after 2016, 2018 etc.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:07 PM ^
Yes, I have some non-paranoid rational concerns about OSU this year. Their biggest weakness - CJ Stroud under pressure - does not look as exploitable this year. Our organic non-blitz pass rush is just not there.
And their receivers look even better and they have a "Haskins" type of running back if Williams is healthy. He actually scares me the most if he's getting 3-4 yards on first downs.
So, we will have to keep pace with Ohio State on the scoreboard. It's like Men's Tennis. You are only going to have a couple of opportunities to break serve. You better keep up the rest of the time.
Punts and red zone field goals are death, time of possession be damned.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
But here is the thing M-Dog, UM is a better team than last year, OSU looks about the same. At some point it’s ok to let your trauma of the last 15 years go
November 4th, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
oh ffs its the 14th "we need to pass more" thread. look folks, this isn't hard to understand.
harbaugh is the coach. a harbaugh team is built to play football harbaugh's way. a harbaugh coached team will never be a "pass first" team. it will never be a "300 yards passing per game" team. look at all of harbaugh's teams in his past. run first, west coast style short passes. i know the long bombs and throwing 50 times a game looks great on ESPN highlight reels, and make you all jiggly inside, but it's never going to be this way at michigan as long as harbaugh is here.
as much griping and complaining about WR and QB recruiting, you're just going to have to keep complaining. it isn't changing. anyone hoping we "air it out" vs Rutger or anyone else is just going to keep hoping. it isn't changing.
it doesn't matter what you think, or what you believe is necessary to be elite, or what you "want to see" or what you think the effect on recruiting will be.
harbaugh is coaching to win the only way he knows how to win. it's running the ball and stopping the run, and it starts in the trenches. he's not going to completely alter his belief system and change how the team plays because of 18 year old kids (recruits), you, ESPN, or anyone.
his job is to win games. so he's going to do it the best way he knows how.
oh, and he's 20-2 the last 2 years with a B1G title, and knows infinitely more about every aspect of football than everyone else here.
Not winning ... people complain about winning ... win ... people complain about how they win.
I swear if we were 8-0 and JJ was throwing for 400 yards a game people would be bitching about the lack of utilizing Corum.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
It matters because defenses are playing in parking lot due to JJ’s arm and Bell, Wilson, CJ, Edwards ability to burn you deep in the receiving game. When you stop landing elite talent at those positions, teams can stack the box against us and don’t have to respect the pass and you’re no longer pasting good defenses for 5+ YPC.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
it matters because "insert hypothetical thoughts and opinions"
you have no idea if it matters, or how much it matters.
we haven't passed the ball like OSU or Oklahoma in *checks notes* forever and yet we have a good receiving corps, excellent TEs, and a 5* QB at the helm.
EDIT: I also find it hilarious that i said "if you want to complain about recruiting, keep complaining" because it isn't changing, and literally your response to me was to complain about recruiting.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
But we need to fixate on something bad, we can’t just enjoy beating the crap out of PSU or MSU. We are traumatized into requiring something we can fear in order to feel anything at all.
November 4th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
MGoBlog pre-2021: i don't care how we win, i just want to win.
Harbaugh goes 20-2 with a B1G crown.
MGoBlog: we're not winning the way i want us to win. we're clearly doomed to only get 2 star recruits.