Wins Above Bubble Update
Three weeks ago Brian's Basketbullets column noted WAB is highly correlated to making the tournament, and Michigan was sitting at -1.
Now they are up to -0.5, with 9 games to go. Looking at WAB is a very simple way to get a feel for where the team stands.
So the best possible, realistic scenario is :Michigan wins every home game, loses every road game. Finishing 12-8 in conference. WAB 1.37. Do that and you are in.
Then every additional loss is a -1 on the WAB. So losing tonight to Purdue and then finishing 11-9 is a WAB of 0.37. This is probably the lower limit on making the tournament, without several BTT wins.
If you lose to Purdue and Illinois at home, you're 10-10 with a WAB of -0.63. That's NIT territory.
So the good news is that the path is pretty simple. Just win the home games. The bad news is they already lost at home to Minnesota by 10, and Purdue and Illinois are both favored. So you still need at least 1 upset.
The game tonight is huge. Puts you on the right path, and it would be the biggest possible resume win left.
February 10th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
What’s the formula?
February 10th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
Made more shots , play more zone , and not have Twill in to finish a game
February 10th, 2022 at 2:58 PM ^
All our 4s stink. Best you can do is put the best "energy" guy in there. I really think Jace is close to getting these minutes. He seems to have a high floor and play very solid d.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Torvik gives you the values. But from what I understand:
Figure out the pts per possession on offense and defense for each team.
Figure out what the at large cut off usually is for the tournament. Like say the team ranked 50th.
Win % = (pts for)^14 / (pts for^14 + pts against^14), do that 3 times for each team for home, away, neutral
the Win% of the matchup is = (p1 - p2 * p1) / (p1 + p2 - 2 * p2 * p1)
Then the (1 - Win%) of that matchup for that 50th ranked team is the WAB value of each game.
So if the 50th ranked team has a win% of 0.3, then by winning you get a +0.7 WAB.
Actually when you look at Michigan's WAB values on Torvik, you can see how "on the bubble" they are. They are basically THE bubble team. So they have a win probability of 34% against Purdue at home, and they'd get a WAB of 0.69 for winning.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
He also calculates odds of making tourney which is 45.5% right now. To your point, exactly the definition of bubble. Coin flip.
I don't think the odds are quite that good, but it should be pretty simple: go 5-4 in the last 9 games, don't have a bad loss in the BTT and they're in.
They definitely aren't going to win all their home games, but they could snag a road win out of three tries.
Most likely path, IMO is beating Iowa, OSU, MSU and Rutgers at home (if they could beat Purdue or Illinois that could replace one of the likeliest four) and stealing one on the road between Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU (in each of which Torvik gives them about a 1/3 chance).
But the magic number for wins is 5. Doesn't matter which ones because 8 of 9 remaining games are Q1, just need 5 out of 9.
If they got 4, there's an outside chance that winning two or three in the BTT could get them in but it'd be iffy.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:59 AM ^
Thank you!
February 10th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
It would still be nice to pick off a road game to give a little bit more breathing room. I think they've already played their three hardest road games (Illinois, Purdue, and MSU) so there may be an opportunity to grab another one.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
So NIT it is. LFG! (hope I'm wrong and they can beat Illinois or Purdue.)
February 10th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
If I am understanding this correctly, it sounds like if we win more games, then we have a better chance of making the tournament.
Go blue!
February 10th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
Yup; and if we win them all, our tournament seeding will improve!
February 10th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
I love me some Michigan basketball and think the world of Juwan and what he has accomplished so far in Ann Arbor… but this year’s team stinks; no offensive flow, awful outside shooting and our defense? Ugh, the PnR defense is one of the worst in the entire country.
It would be a minor miracle if we made the NCAA this year, and a major one if we did anything of significance in it.
Regardless, Go Blue, beat Purdue
February 10th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
Although we'd all love the late season exposure and want the players to be able to enjoy the feeling and excitement of making the tournament, I don't think it would be the worse thing in the world to miss the pressure of the big dance and reset.
This isn't a case of losing a couple bad beats and close games. We've looked out of sync a lot and at times straight up lost or uninterested out there. I'd love it to make the tournament but I think this team will need and really the coaches need to recalibrate what works and what doesn't.
February 10th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
There really isn't any circumstance in college basketball where making the NCAA tournament is a bad thing.
February 10th, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
MSU has been trying to reach you regarding MTSU.
February 10th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
Ok, maybe there is ONE circumstance in which it is bad.
February 10th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
ok, so start recalibrating three weeks later. cant imagine many circumstances where teams wouldnt/shouldnt want to make the dance. silly stance. this squad has virtually zero chance of making a march run but you still want that experience all around
February 10th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
If there is any time for this team to start figuring out how to defend, hit their shots, and play better basketball, the time is now. Unfortunately, I do not think we'll see this.
Next season will be telling to see how the team grows and how Juwan coaching manifests itself into building a better more polished team sans Hunter.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
That Minnesota game is a killer, especially as the season goes on and the Gophers have skidded. The Rutgers and UCF games also came amidst coronavirus cases and they were shorthanded. But, the Minnesota game was a really poor performance and one they couldn't afford to lose. However, I think the tone of this difficult season was set in that second half against Seton Hall. Michigan let them back in the game and SH stole a game that would've been a good nonconference win for M. I feel like that really messed with this team's mind and they've been hesitant ever since.
And yes, if they want to make the tournament, they'll have to beat someone good. The committee doesn't want any teams who can't beat anyone. And so far, Michigan hasn't beaten anyone good (Indiana is OK).
GO BLUE! BEAT PURDUE! AND OHIO STATE!! AND EVERYONE ELSE!
February 10th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
Spot on comments! I absolutely look back at the same games (UCF, Rutgers, SH, and Minnesota) and think what if. If we can win two of those, the season likely looks pretty different. Instead we're barely above .500 and appear to be a bit of a mess in nearly every facet. Not much time to turn it around, guess we'll see?
February 10th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
Seaton Hall and Minnesota are really the only bad losses. Rutgers on the road is tough, just ask Sparty.
I think it's a tall task for them to beat Purdue at home but the rest of the home games are possible. Then just get one road win from Iowa, Wisconsin or OSU and the resume looks a lot better.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^
Seton Hall isn't that bad of a loss. They're 33rd in NET so that's almost a Q1 game. At Rutgers is also a Q2 game closer to Q1 than Q3.
The Minnesota game is the only "bad" loss as a Q3 game. So that hurts. And Michigan is only 1-5 in Q1 games which isn't quite good enough, especially when you have a Q3 loss and are 500 in Q2 games.
February 10th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
If the team doesn’t make the tournament it’s probably going to be because of that Minnesota game. That is really the only inexcusable loss.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
Bottom line is we need 5 more wins (plus an opening win in BTT) although the most important one is probably Rutgers. That’s a Q3 game and we can’t afford to lose that one as a blemish on the resume. Every other game presents the team with a Q1 opportunity and as long as we aren’t above a certain number of losses won’t hurt us.
Bottom line I agree we need to go at least 11-9 in conference.
February 10th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
The interesting thing with Rutgers is, they have some insane wins at home (as they usually do). They've now beaten OSU and MSU back to back at home. Their ranking on Barttorvik is up to #96 (they were at #110 before those games). They still have Illinois and Wisconsin at home. There's a decent chance that Rutgers gets moved to a Q2.
Totally agree with everything else you say here, just thought I'd add that context.
February 10th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
I think its more likely they do something like steal the game at Iowa than win out at home but as long as they can do something like that they will have a shot
February 10th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
The only issue is that Crisler has been a graveyard - just doesn't seem like there is any juice but for the small contingent of the Maize Rage. For the life of me, I can't understand how we can fill a 110k+ football stadium every week but can't be bothered to even come close to a 1/3 of that for basketball. It's not like the team hasn't been successful recently...
February 10th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
Simple answer. Waaaaaayyyyy too many blue haired season ticket holders in the lower bowl.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
But both bowls are half empty most of the time. It's not like the cheaper seats are filled every game, either.
February 10th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
It's been that way forever with a few exceptions.
I think Crisler is a fine place to watch a basketball game and have been driving over from Oakland County for years to almost every game. The problem is the Ann Arbor locals who just don't support Michigan basketball.
I don't think the ramped up professional environment helps either. It is very lame to have adults ridging tricycles as time out entertainment. At the last game the scoreboard implored us to "Crank It up" just before Michigan was shooting free throws!
February 10th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
The Michigan basketball fanbase has been bad for a while, even with a top tier basketball team the games would really only sell out or get even remotely loud for a 2-3 games a year. It’s extremely sad.
on top of the fanbase it’s just a poorly laid out arena. The student section is small, broken up, and weirdly placed, the slope of the stands isn’t steep at all so it’s not visually imposing and the seats feel extremely far from the court, and there is a tunnel behind a basket. It’s honestly the worst designed arena I’ve ever been in for trying to maximize a home environment.
February 10th, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
The statistics may not bear it out (I am not that interested to research it), but it feels like opposing teams shoot incredibly well at Crisler, even when we are very good and very good at defense. Both from deep and in the "circus shot" category. The 2019 game v. Oregon (which the crowd did actually show up and was very loud) was the game in which I just threw my hands in the air and almost stopped watching it. They wouldn't miss.
February 10th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
Yes, very dissapointing since they just did a huge renovation and it's not like there's some new addition coming down the pike in the near future. I would at least love to see a coherently placed student section, but displacing some gray hairs for it doesn't seem like anything M would be willing to do.
It would be nice for JH to speak up - I think he could leverage some positive change the way Harbuagh has done.
February 10th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
Under JH, unlike JB, you need a little more consistency year to year to get people in the seats and stay in the seats. I have yet to see just a bad team against expectations than this year's team and its not helping. It's not like we expected a bad team and we played like a bad team.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
This year reminds me a LOT of the 2009-2010 basketball season. Beilein's 2nd year, coming off our first NCAA tourney bid in 20 years we were ranked #15 in both polls to start the season. That team also had a slow start and ended up a very dissapointing 15-17 for the year.
Not saying we're heading there but expectations have certainly falled short of reality this season (so far) just as it did back then.
Maybe the "sophomore slump" applies to head coaches too.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
But Juwan’s a junior
February 10th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
I don't think Juwan has slumped in terms of preparation or in game management. This season's failings are almost entirely on poor roster construction. Juwan brought in way too many similar type players and left gaping holes at the guard and wing spots as well as a killer lack of shooting ability. And unfortunately, next year's class looks like a lot more of the same.
Juwan needs to take a page out of JB's book with his recruiting, which seems odd to say because we are all so psyched about finally pulling in McDonald's all american types.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
I didnt say his in-game coaching was poor nor do I think we're underprepared but our guard play has been inconsistent at best and we cant hit a three with regularity to save our life and it's been costing us.
isnt roster construction part of coaching too?
February 10th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
I think this nails it. Juwan can get much higher ranked prospects then Beilein just because he's Juwan. He needs to get way smarter about who he targets.
February 10th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Some of it is roster construction but some of it is also guys not quite developing how we all expected. You re-read the Wings preview and the conventional wisdom was that Houstan, Williams, and Howard (plus someone like Bufkin if necessary) could fill that role while they'd be able to roll Johns and Diabate at PF. The problem is Houstan is too slow right now to guard SFs and Johns has fallen off a damn cliff so you have limited options at key spots. I do think they'll try to bring in a SF in the transfer portal in the offseason and the hope is the younger guys can mature with a year of prep and strength training to be more complete.
The bigger concern for me is the shooting, which again is part roster construction but also guys probably being a bit over their heads in their first years. I do think Houstan and Bufkin can be plus shooters, we'll have to see about Barnes, but I'm not sold Collins is going to quite get there and so they'll be back to having an offensive liability at PG. Of course, Beilein took Simpson and that never quite turned into what it could be.
This just feels like a really young team at key spots that didn't develop on the curve we expected plus upperclassmen regressing/hitting ceilings and not quite picking up the slack.
February 10th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Yep, this is it here. I have held off on criticism of Juwan, since I think he's an amazing face of the program and it's early in his tenure. But I just don't understand his recruiting....it seems like he's not building a roster/team. Rather he's targeting highly-rated guys -- and landing some -- but it seems like most everything is a miss.
That said, there hasn't been much development, and I think a great deal of it has to do with COVID ravaging through the team, maybe even more than once (or maybe it was a wave of flu and a wave of COVID??) this season. They seem completely disjointed and un-developed, and that has to be due to a lack of quality practice time together. There's no way that the staff is this bad at developing talent, right?
TL;DR - Juwan needs to improve his roster construction, but I don't think the lack of development during the season is his fault.
February 10th, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
This is just what happens in college basketball. I haven't loved how Juwan recruits the PG position but its not like he doesn't know shooting is important. Houstan, Barnes, and Bufkin all have shown the talent to be solid to plus outside shooters. The hoped for starting lineup should have included a 40% 3 pt guy in Johns, the best high school spot up shooter in the country in Houstan, and a 40% catch and shoot guy in Brooks. Factor in the outside shot from Dickinson and that is totally fine. It obviously hasn't worked out but once again, that happens sometimes.
I feel the need to remind people that this even happened to everyone's perfect coach in Beilein. In year eight he had a guy that struggled as a 5 star freshman in Chatman, a solidly ranked 4 star who wasn't ready to help yet in DJ Wilson, and was starting Mark Donnal at center with a true freshman 3 star ricky doyle as his primary backup. That is also poor roster construction because a couple things didn't break right.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Bottom line is that Michigan needs to beat someone of some kind of significance, and they need to do it fast. Their best win right now is....Indiana? Which is a team that is probably better than what people expected, and winning in Assembly Hall is not easy for anyone to do, but there are currently no wins on Michigan's resume that an objective observer would look at and say "Now THAT was impressive."
Fortunately they have plenty of chances to change that narrative, and that potentially starts today against a top-5 Purdue team they played extremely tough on the road. Win that game and you're absolutely moving in the right direction.
All I know for sure is that whether Michigan makes the tournament or not, I will be plopping my ass down on the couch all day on Friday, March 18th, and watching me some basketball. First weekend of March Madness is the best weekend in American sports.
February 10th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
Yeah @Indiana is easily their best win
February 10th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Great, and easy way of looking at our tourney chances. Thanks for posting!
February 10th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Wins Above Buplacement?
February 10th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
Who's going to step up and be the emotional leader of the squad? The Spike A or Stu Douglass or D Walt, who steps up and inspires the best efforts from his teammates? A little extra juice from Eli or Hunter the next two weeks will go a LONG way. Let's go boys!
February 10th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
1000% this! I was actually watching old clips of Hunter from the run last year and he was juiced, yelling at folks and slamming with authority. I think one of the major things we're missing this season is some of that dog mentality. Charles Matthews, Chaundee Brown, Franz, etc. had the chippy kind of attitude that this team needs desperately (among other things).
February 10th, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
Austin Davis had it too. College basketball is meant to be played with attitude and emotion but we're not seeing much of it at the right times this season.
February 10th, 2022 at 1:31 PM ^
This team is more than talented enough such that if it just plays good basketball, the wins and the tournament take care of themselves.