Who would be your CFP Top 6? And, what will it really be?
The first CFP ranking comes out tonight. I don't know exactly who will be in it, other than the obvious two that will be in the Top 4. And I don't think it will be exactly like like the AP or coaches polls. These are the teams I think should be in the Top 6:
But what do I think they will do? They will probably take out one team that I have in the Top 6, probably Oklahoma, and put in Cincinnati. But to me, Cincinnati had games that were way too close with Indiana and Navy---both teams outgained them--and that shouldn't happen with a Top 6 team. They also were in close struggles with Murray St and Tulane for 3 qtrs, before pulling away in the 4th. That's too many close games with inferior teams. And again, that shouldn't happen to a Top 6 team. But they're "undefeated", so the committee will probably have them in the Top 6.
I have Oklahoma in the playoffs because since they made the QB change they have quickly evolved into a team that should be in the playoffs. QB Caleb Williams could win the Heisman if he keeps going like he's going.
So who's your Top 6? And who do you think the committee will make the Top 6. Are they the same?
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:00 AM ^
I'd go:
1 - Georgia
2 - Oklahoma
3 - Alabama
4 - Cincinnati
5 - Ohio State
6 - Michigan State
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:28 AM ^
This is how I’d rank them.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
Just on resume, you have to put Sparty ahead of Ohio State. Undefeated with a top ten win >> one loss with a win over a barely-ranked three-loss team.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
Fortunately they play yet, so it's a moot point. I think OSU is better than MSU, and I expect we'll see that when they play.
If not, well, then I'll be wrong and MSU will be Top 4 no argument.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
This seems right but the committee will elevate MSU into the top four. I have no doubt every team ahead of them here would win on neutral field. They would be blown out by a few of them. The closest contest would likely be versus the Bearcats.
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
Not how I would rank them but how I predict the committee will rank them:
1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. Oklahoma
4. MSU
5. Oregon
6. Cincinnati
7. Ohio State
8. Notre Dame
9+. A big ole wad of teams
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:09 AM ^
1, Georgia
2. Alabama.
3.Ohio State
4. Oklahoma.
5 through 10 may all be over ranked and are not complete teams in my book. MSU weak secondary. Michigan weak over all defense. Cincinnati lucky to beat ND and has not looked that great against lesser competition.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:39 AM ^
How was Cincinnati "lucky" to beat Notre Dame??? They never trailed, missed 2 field goals of less than 40 yards (which is luck on Notre Dame's side) and won by 2 touchdowns, on the road!
Is "they were lucky, so we can't count that Notre Dame win, just completely ignore that game" the newest anti-Bearcat talking point???
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:25 AM ^
I believe that the core problem here is that having an AAC team that, at present, has a non-zero chance of being in the CFP discussion if things continue as they have (perhaps not the best chance, but not an entirely laughable one) is something a lot of football fans cannot easily process apparently. Yeah, it's the AAC, it's Group Of Five, it's not cream of the crop stuff, but here we are all the same.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^
Yeah... not so much lucky to beat Indiana or Navy... rather, lucky that they weren't playing one of the thirty or forty schools that they would have lost to on that day.
It's just difficult for us to watch a team with middling talent play low-to-middling quality football and think, "based on won-lost numbers they should definitely be in the CFP"
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
so do you like teams 11-15 better or are you just saying that 5-10 are down compared to teams historically in that range. If the former, ok you think they're over ranked, but if the latter, they're not over ranked. You just think it's a down year.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:34 AM ^
Setting aside the fact that 65% of the OP's rationale in making his post was to yet again rag on Cincinnati (he's the only person on Earth who cares about UC vs Navy yardage) ..............
------------
If it was up to be, there would be NO committee rankings until the ONLY one that matters (the last one).
TCU was #3 in the next-to-last rankings of 2014. Then they walloped ISU by 7 touchdowns, and they fell to #6. There remains no rational explanation for that, and there never will be one.
I guess this is my annual rant, but take tomorrow night for what it's worth. Tomorrow night's rankings are not meaningful, the rankings only serve as a ratings grab ginned up by ESPN on an otherwise sleepy Tuesday evening.
And I guess another rant .... it's called the CFP but it's really the CFI (College Football Invitational).
For the Buckeye fans here, remember you only "won" it all in 2014 because some committee (which likely had ESPN subtly influencing them, because ESPN has a vested interest in who makes the playoffs, geez what can be shady there???) invited OSU, not because OSU definitively earned that spot.
November 2nd, 2021 at 5:58 AM ^
Navy would outgain Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio St?
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Oklahoma was outgained by Kansas, who is worse than Navy. OSU gave up 501 yards to Tulsa and only outgained them by 7. Would Cincinnati do either of those things?
I'd say no, but what I say shouldn't matter. We all get predictions wrong every week yet maintain steadfastly what would happen if two teams hypothetically played.
November 2nd, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
Probably not. But beating a service academy while being outgained isn't news. It's the nature of those offenses that they have trouble turning yards into points.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:38 AM ^
TCU was #3 in the next-to-last rankings of 2014. Then they walloped ISU by 7 touchdowns, and they fell to #6. There remains no rational explanation for that, and there never will be one.
TCU beat Iowa State (2-9) by 7 touchdowns. Ohio State beat Wisconsin (10-2) 59-0 in B1G championship. PFF iirc said it was the "best" win in college football that year. That's the rational explanation for Ohio State's 2014 invitation.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:43 AM ^
That’s a poor explanation. You’re #3 and win like you are supposedly to. You shouldn’t drop at all. It’s all about the money.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
You’re #3 and win like you are supposed to. You shouldn’t drop at all.
Imagine this scenario:
If Michigan State wins its next two games, but then loses to Ohio State, then MSU will still be ranked ahead of Michigan (no matter what they do) going into the last game of the season. So what will happen if Michigan State then wins its last game, but one-loss Michigan blows out one-loss Ohio State?
Everyone here will say Michigan should jump Michigan State even though Sparty was ranked higher before the last game, and then won that last game. And Michigan fans would be right. UM would have a more impressive record.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
No, it's a perfectly good and entirely reasonable explanation. The idea that simply winning means a team shouldn't drop in a ranking is completely irrational.
If the team right behind you, who is perhaps thought to be nearly on level footing wins in much more impressive fashion, why wouldn't they move ahead? All data must be considered.
November 2nd, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
the cfp rankings are re-done every week, and only take into account what happened so far. so there is no such thing as "dropping." they re-do the whole list. no one moves up or down. this is expressly stated in the cfp committee protocol. baylor and tcu had better resumes than osu after 11 weeks. they didn't after 12 weeks.
the big 12 boned itself by declaring them co-champs after saying all year that they were gonna crown "one true champion" based on the fact that all 10 teams played each other round robin style. once the big 12 saw tcu was ranked higher than baylor going into week 12--even though baylor beat tcu and was the rightful big 12 champ--the big 12 declared them co-champs so the committee could pick tcu as a conference champion. whoops!
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
good point, and its the right way to think about it
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
If I am understanding you correctly and that is indeed what the cfp committee protocol it is the dumbest possible way to try and fool fans. If Michigan is ranked 3rd and moves up to 1st no ones first thought is that they did not move up, they just got re-ranked. Or the opposite if Michigan is ranked 3rd and DROPS to 5th then the committee wants me to think they did not drop? This is the problem with the NCAA. They make statements all the time as if fans are idiots. It is a rigged organization that benefits teams that will bring them more money. Nothing will ever change their way of thinking. The only thing that will change is maybe a handful of different teams may win here and there that may change those teams money bringing status. It’s all about the Benjamin’s.
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^
i'm just telling you, that's how they do it. they re-rank it each time. clean slate. idk if that part is dumb. i actually think that part is good. how often do we complain about poll inertia? they are trying to avoid that.
what is dumb, and is a total cash grab, is releasing rankings now. in week 8. just release an end of season cfp ranking before championship week. and then release the final ones after conference championship week.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:46 AM ^
That’s a poor explanation. You’re #3 and win like you are supposedly to. You shouldn’t drop at all. It’s all about the money.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
EC has a legit beef about cincy. they have a charmin-soft schedule and have struggled to squeeze some of that charmin. not a bad team, but a middle of the road B10 or SEC team, 4-3 type of record if they played in a real conference.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:23 AM ^
I would argue that Ohio State's schedule, to this point, has been only slightly more difficult than Cincinnati's. @Notre Dame is a tougher game than home vs. Oregon. Ohio State's games against Penn State and @Minnesota make their overall schedule tougher, but it's hard to call Cincinnati's schedule "Charmin soft" by comparison when OSU has played Akron, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, and Tulsa. Also, keep in mind that the Tulsa game was 27-20 with under 4 minutes to play, so not that different from Cincinnati's game against Navy.
I also think Cincinnati's resume is WAY better than Oklahoma's right now. Oklahoma has no wins over currently-ranked teams. Five of their wins were by one score. They have played exactly one road game, a 6-point win over Kansas State. Their nonconference opponents were Missouri State, Tulane (who had the ball down 5 at the end), Western Carolina, and Nebraska, all at home. Talk about Charmin soft.
I don't know if Cincinnati deserves to be in the CFP or not, and the teams around them have a lot of opportunities down the stretch to bolster their own resumes that Cincinnati won't have. But they have lost one game in the last two seasons (by 3 in the Peach Bowl to Georgia), and they scheduled road games against two ranked (to start the season) teams in Notre Dame and Indiana, one of which is now in the top ten. They have pretty much done everything that a Group of 5 team could possibly do to get into the CFP. If they can't get in this year, why are they even an FBS team? Why would they compete if it's impossible for them to ever win a championship no matter how many games they win?
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:35 PM ^
Well, the committee certainly agreed with you on Oklahoma.
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
The problem is we don't know what their record would be. We can predict, but there are enough wrong predictions to fill all the tall buildings in Vegas.
I think about this: if Notre Dame *hadn't* played Cincinnati -- but instead hosted another random mediocre ACC ('major conference') team, like Clemson did for years -- they'd have a better chance of being undefeated and in the Top 4. In other words, Cincinnati is capable of beating a playoff team because they already went on the road and beat one who'd be there if they hadn't beaten them. (I wish there was a less wordy way to say that, but I think you guys get it :) )
I also think we really need to compare schedules and not just conferences. The SEC has pulled this trick for years. They have such uneven schedules and teams can sometimes avoid many or most of the major powers despite being in that conference.
November 2nd, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^
i come here to drink the tears of michigan fans but this was a nice change of pace.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:47 AM ^
1. GA
2. MSU
3. OU
4. Alabama
5. Oregon
6. OSU
GA is clearly the cream of the crop. MSU has the best win of undefeated teams (vs top 10 Michigan). Oregon has the best win in the entire country this year and the committee will consider H2H with OSU with both being 1 loss teams. Bama's loss isn't as bad as Oregon's, so despite their best wins not being super impressive - close game they eeked out @ 4-4 FL, win over 6-2 Ole Miss, or their neutral site win over 4-4 Miami - they will get the nod at #4 for now.
I will be shocked if GA/OU/MSU aren't the top 3 and will be equally shocked if Cincinnati is in the top 5. Unfortunately (for them) their win over IU has lost all it's weight. At this point they need to win big and they need ND to win out otherwise any 1 loss P5 champ is getting in over them.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:13 AM ^
Flip Oregon and OSU, and drop Oregon in place of Cincinnati, and I'm with you...
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
Oregon was missing two of their best players and won in Columbus. They deserve to be ahead of OSU.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
I so want MSU to be #2 when they play Purdue.... Make it happen the #2 curse prevail.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
Curses do not exist.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
I graduated in 1987 and every single game I attended at Michigan Stadium between 1987 and 2011, we lost. These included games we should've won, like Toledo. The game that finally broke "the curse" was us beating Ohio State in 2011. I'd like to say it was the triple OT game against Illinois the previous year -- we were at that game -- but I was so stressed out, I left the stadium after the first OT and stood outside so technically I wasn't "at" the game.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
That's called a coincidence.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Repeated coincidences are then converted to curses. It is written in the logs.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
The logs of nonsense.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
Logs of crap.
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:11 PM ^
Wow. That's a long time, and of mostly winning seasons. How many games did you attend?
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:05 AM ^
Georgia, Bama, OSU, Cinci. MSU fans would call me salty but they were clearly worse than us Saturday and I don't think we are CFP level, so they absolutely aren't.
Prediction- MSU finishes out with 3 or 4 losses, no one major is actually interested in Tucker, and he ends up being a flash in a pan. Personally, I don't even care whether he leaves or stays, I don't think he's anything special whatsoever and he doesn't scare me if he isn't playing a team with massive and obvious holes or getting handed points by officials.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
You may be salty but you are not necessarily wrong. MSU has flipped a coin and for various reasons has come up heads 10 times in a row. Kudos to them for being present when other teams shoot themselves in the foot and the refs hand out gifts like Halloween candy. If they come up against a team with a quality run defense, they could be in real trouble.
Also, Walker is likely gone after this year, and has been the key to their entire offense/season so Tucker is going to face some new challenges next year. Does he bail because he knows that he caught lightning in a bottle for this year?
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
I think he bails because LSU is going to give him a raise to the $9M / yr that they were paying Orgeron from the current $5.6M he's making now.
The LSU President wants him. He'd be crazy not to cash in his winning lotto ticket.
Who's talking about Matt Campbell this year?
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Interesting take on Tucker. If I were you, id pray he leaves for a better offer.
Just about every indicator you can use will point to him building a powerhouse program at MSU. This lightning in a bottle is wishful thinking. He compiled his current roster off zoom calls during a Covid period when the team had no on field success to point to.
He's now top 10, 8-0, featuring dynamic playmakers all over the field with innovative play calling. This would suggest his recruiting is going to improve, not fade.
They just received 32 mil donation to continue the upgrade of football facilities and the AD is a former player.
MSU football is as strong as ever and it's the first real season for Tucker. That's conference and national coach of the year material. Compare what Tucker inherited to what Jesus Harbaugh inherited.
'nuff said.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
you were doing great right up until you hit the harbaugh comment.
i do think tucker is definitely in the running for COY honors. he's done a great job under just about any possible metric. hat tip to him and his staff.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
I didn't need to include the Jesus dig, so I apologize for that. I'm working on being less of a troll and more civil.
I was trying to state that Harbaugh had a lot more talent on his roster when he came in as a counter point to "Harbaugh started 8-0 in earlier years too, it means nothing".
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
i agree completely about harbaugh not coming into a bare cupboard, so to speak, when hoke was let go. it wasn't perfect, but it also wasn't the train wreck many coaches inherit. tucker does have the significant benefit of a much more lax entrance policy for transfers - our admissions office is exceptionally difficult to deal with in that regard. for instance, i believe shea patterson gave up close to a year of classes to transfer to michigan. nevertheless, tucker hit the 10 ring on transfers and again, hat tip to him.
and we're just dudes (and dudettes) on a message board, but rival fans really are welcome when not trolling. i'm not the only one here that enjoys informed, civil input from folks like you. keep posting in that light.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
Pride comes before the fall. Don't forget. Tucker is doing a good job this year but the jury is still out. I just saw a guy get fired two years from championship. Your great Izzo has been down for years. So, don't be going around pumping your chest.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
I'm not sure what bringing Izzo to this argument does during a football discussion, but I'll humor you.
How has Izzy been down for years? He has won 3 of the last 4 big ten championships, including two years ago when he won the season title and the BTT. This also includes a trip to the final four in that time period and team that was poised to make a deep run in the year they canceled the NCAA tournament.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
double post.