Who gets the last 1 seed?
Coming into the day, I think everyone has Duke and Virginia as the 1 seeds in the East and South, with Gonzaga the 1 in the West. With Tennessee currently imploding in the SEC championship, the door may be open for the B1G champ to get the 1 seed in the Midwest.
So who gets it? North Carolina played an incredibly tough schedule with an 11-1 road record, but got hammered by Michigan. Even with a potential loss, Tennessee would only have 5 losses, with wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga on neutral courts and no bad losses. The B1G champ would have another top-10 win on their already-strong resume. Michigan would have more quad 1 and 2 wins than either UNC or Tennessee, with the head-to-head win over UNC as well.
So who gets the fourth #1? The committee will likely set up a bracket where the winner of UM-MSU gets the better spot, just as they did for UM-Wisconsin two years ago, so today's game can still have an effect even though it ends just before the selection show. I think if Tennessee comes back and wins they deserve it, but if not it's a tough call.
I'm not 100% convinced that Gonzaga will get a 1 seed after their loss.
I agree, their quad 1 record is very unimpressive especially compared with the other teams in contention
Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, UNC
I can understand the rationale, but the politics of giving three #1 seeds to one conference (and the fourth to a not-exactly-power-conference) just seems too much.
UNC: Beat Duke 2x, Wofford, Gonzaga, VaTech 2x, Florida State 2x, 27-6, shared conference title of best conference in basketball.
Duke: 29-5, won the conference tourney of the best conference in basketball, beat Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech, UNC, Virginia 2x, Florida State 2x, No bad losses.
Virginia: Beat UNC, Shared conference title, 29-3, beat everyone except Duke and Florida state.
If Michigan wanted a one seed, they shouldve beaten penn State, or Michigan State prior to the Big Ten Tourney. The three ACC teams deserve it way more, and I don't mind whatever politics people think they're playing just because the ACC has the best teams.
I say the winner of the BTT, whoever that is. Who's playing in that this year anyway?
If sparty blows us out they will probably get it.
If not, UNC.
I don't see Tennessee, Michigan or Houston moving up that many spots.
I don't see Texas Tech or LSU passing UNC or Kentucy either.
If this happens it's a travesty. If Michigan wins, they would have 1 fewer losses and beat UNC head to head. If MSU wins, they would be Big Ten regular season and tourney champ.
Yeah but nobody thinks Michigan or MSU would beat UNC at neutral site. Their one point loss to Duke on Friday was a win.
Huh?
Fuck you.
We beat them by 17 at home. Home court advantage is not worth 17 points.
Also, even kenpom.com thinks we'd beat them on a neutral court, so once again: fuck you.
I would like to invite you to....simmer down now. Go Blue!
You should consider laying off the 'roids for awhile.
If Tennessee loses it has to be the UM/MSU winner. UNC beat Duke twice without Zion so it's not as impressive and obviously, UM smoked UNC head to head. Having said that, the ACC will probably get 3 number 1 seeds. At least UVA won't see UMBC this year
Think MSU gets it if they win, Tennessee if they win/MSU loses and UNC if both MSU/Tennessee lose.
Probably UNC based on what I'm seeing today. The downside to having the B1G title game on Sunday is that a lot of people have already made up their minds before that outcome. I think that hurts today's winner a bit.
The nonsense bit is Gonzaga as a #1 when they're 4-3 in Tier 1 games and 1-2 vs. ranked opponents. You can only beat who is in front of you but they haven't taken advantage of the few opportunities they've given themselves.
I agree that Gonzaga should probably be a 2. As bad a second their conference is, their non-conference was pretty weak other than Duke and Tennessee. Michigan's wasn't that strong either, but if you add two B1G conference games to our nonconference it looks way better.
Is anyone afraid of having Gonzaga in our bracket?
I'm praying for it.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:38 AM ^
They beat Duke with Zion, that's like ten Q1 wins to the committee. It came down to UNC and MSU and given UNC only lost by 1 to Duke, they got the last 1-seed.
I think we have a tendency to over value conference tournament performance, especially late into the weekend. Then without fail the committee spokesperson talks about how they were basically locked in on Saturday morning etc.
I expect no different from the committee this year. Take conventional wisdom going into the weekend and expect It to hold up.
1 seeds:
South: Duke
East: Virginia
Midwest: UNC
West: Tennessee if they win, otherwise Gonzaga
2 seeds:
Midwest: MSU
South: Tennessee if they lose, Michigan if Tennessee wins
East: Kentucky
West: Gonzaga if Tennessee wins, Michigan if Tennessee loses
I don’t think the Big Ten game today will have any impact on seeding.
Go Auburn!!!
Bruce Pearl is a scummy dude but he plays a fun style. He's getting his Tennessee revenge in Nashville today.
I really hate how coaches are basically incentivized to cheat, given how minimal penalties against them are. Pearl has cheated at every school he has been at and his punishment...rewarded with million dollar contracts to coach again.
Coaches get punished with a 1 year suspension, while schools and students get the brunt of the sanctions. There should be a progressive system against coaches, something like 10 year ban, 20 year ban, lifetime ban.
I think the incentive structure taught Pearl to do things the wrong way.
When he was an Iowa assistant a player he was recruiting got paid to go to Illinois and Pearl went to the NCAA with a taped conversation with the recruit. Illinois received no penalties from the NCAA and the fallout set Pearl's career back a decade.
That seems like an instructional moment for a young coach.
We have no shot. Sparty could definitely get it if they beat us.
While it would be nice to avoid Duke til Final Four we’d have to beat them to win it all anyway, most likely. Unless this is one of those years they lose early.
I hope after this likely loss Tennessee gets put with Duke.
It’s all BS TV window dressing on No.1 seeds you can make the final four being a 2,3,4 or whatever I’d rather win the BTT could careless on the TV drama, may the tournament begin and the talking heads could bitching!
Teams that are 2,3, or 4 details have a decent shot.
The numbers show that seeding does matter though. 1 seeds are roughly twice as likely to make the Final Four and roughly four times as likely to win it all.
I agree Joe, those bias ACC talking heads just piss me off that’s why I watch a lot of games muted, there’s no chance Blue is getting a one seed though, hope I’m wrong but Duke can finish 3rd in the ACC and get a one seed, but nobody in the Big Ten could do that
I agree- I think we’re unlikely to get a 1, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if we do. My guess would be the top 2 seed if we win, which wouldn’t be bad.
MSU I think probably gets the last 1 if they win.
That argument is kind of missing the point.
The #1 seeds win more often because they are the best teams in the aggregate. That they were also given #1 seeds is a very small factor. There's a difference between a consensus #1 seed like Duke and the teams people argue about deserving the final #1 seed. Whoever gets it doesn't really profit from it.
I don't know how much the tournament committee listens to/cares about "Joey Brackets" and the lot.
Media has a very strong east coast/ACC bias, for sure. To me it makes no sense.
B1G and ACC are mirrors of each other. Split B1G/ACC challenge, both conferences deep and strong, with teams at the top that could win the whole tournament.
IMO it would be ridiculous to give 3 ACC teams #1 and shut out the B1G. Beyond ridiculous.
Hope the committee feels the same.
Tennessee getting whooped right now.
I think we'd have to really handle Sparty today to move to a 1.
I tend to agree - if we play the type of game that Auburn is currently playing against Tennessee, then perhaps we sneak onto the 1-line. That might be the only scenario where I think it is possible.
That said, Tennessee football doesn't see the problem with being down several possessions late.
I'm not so sure on Gonzaga. Only being 4-3 for quad 1 is weak compared to the other teams. But they'll get a lot of credit for being the only team to beat a fully healthy Duke.
I doubt we can move to the 1 line as our SOS is not as strong and not as many Q1 wins but MSU probably could.
North Carolina would also be pretty hard to deny but we should discount their two wins over Duke a bit since Zion didn't play.
Really don't care much if we're a 1 or a 2. But I'd rather not be in the same bracket with Duke or Gonzaga. I do think Gonzaga is beatable, but not sure if we can keep up offensively with their scoring and not a great matchup given their length and shooting. Would much rather see TN, KY, UNC or Virginia, with the latter two being 1s I guess. Though consensus does seem to be we get sent to the West as the 2 against Gonzaga.
Will also bet $1 that they set up a rematch with Houston as the 3 in our bracket.
St Mary’s beat Gonzaga by slowing the pace down and hitting a few tough shots. But it was mostly defense that got them the win.
We can definitely beat Gonzaga following our normal blue print, especially if we hit a few shots.
Gonzaga beat St. Mary's by almost 50 points in February.
I watched that game, and St. Mary's didn't belong on the court with them - or with anyone for that matter. They stink. No athleticism AT ALL.
It's a travesty if the 'zags get a 1 seed after a loss so embarrassing.
Yeah, I mean, I think we can beat them, but I still think they are not a good matchup, even relative to the other teams. Also remember that the St. Mary's game is probably their worst game of the year so you can say yeah, if they play like that then we can definitely beat them but that's dwelling on the most favorable outcome. Like saying that if we play like we did against Penn State then yeah lots of teams can beat us, if Duke plays like they did against Syracuse, MSU vs Indiana, etc etc.
It would be important to dictate the pace in a game with Gonzaga. They would probably win a track meet while we would do better in the slower paced, walk it up the court game.
Out of all the ones I’d probably want the Zags even though they are a great team that can certainly make the Final Four.
As you probably know living in Seattle, west coast basketball is horrifically bad this year.
Gonzaga is really the only decent team in the whole west; Nevada was badly overrated.
No question Gonzaga has some good players, but jeebus, St. Mary's really sucks. I didn't watch the game, but I just can't imagine how the zags didn't just crush them at the rim like they did in their earlier matchups (which I did see).
I'm not saying Gonzaga couldn't beat us - but there's no way we would have ever gotten beat by St. Mary's. No team that loses a game like that deserves a #1.
Wow, that Pac 12 final was ugly last night.
I mean it's certainly true the PAC 12 is terrible but to what extent is that at all relevant to Gonzaga? They did play UW and Arizona and obviously Arizona turned out to be a dud that hurt their SOS. And UW looks like an 9 seed or so. The WCC is probably in line with where it usually is, if not a little better. Aside from the AAC, it might be the best of the non-power conferences but still quite a ways behind the best.
That's a harsh take on Saint Mary's. Kenpom has them 31st which is ahead of 9 of the 14 B1G teams including Iowa and PSU whom we both lost to. It's not that bad of a loss.
Also, stuff happens over the course of a season. Duke lost at home to #30 Syracuse. UNC lost to a .500 Texas team. MSU has 3 losses to teams ranked worse than St. Mary's including a home loss to Indiana and a loss to 12-21 #83 Illinois. Kentucky lost to Seton Hall and Alabama. Tennessee just got worked by Auburn. Bad games happen to good teams.
Penn State is WAY WAY better than St. Mary's, and that game wasn't on a neutral floor.
The only comparison I can think of with Michigan is when we lost to NJIT - and that game was a really low-stakes early season affair.
You don't seem to be very familiar with St. Mary's. They've averaged about 25 wins over the past dozen years, made the tourney 6 times in that span, and under the advanced stats they are more often a top 50ish type team by all of the advanced stats (worst performance is 67th in the last 12 years per kenpom with 9 of 12 years in top 50). To compare them to NJIT is a stretch. Torvik has them as #35, kenpom as #31 this year. This isn't like losing to Chaminade.
I guess Auburn is doing its best Michigan Classic impression. Although they’re playing pretty good D also.
They would be a tough team to play when they’re playing like this.
MSU.If they win.
UNC if we win.
Three ACC one seeds is ridiculous.
It will be Staee after they win in a blowout. Fuck Izzo.
I see what you’re doing. Jinxing Izzo and co instead of us.