What Would It Take - Defensive Line
What Would It Take - Interior Defensive Line
I have been accused of being a bit too verbose in these previews. I could make this one much shorter.
What will it take to make this year’s interior defensive line good? A miracle. If my other posts have been too long, this is an appropriate place to stop reading. If you want more detail, here goes.
In a position group where we need three starters and would ideally have three solid backups, it is hard to name more than 2 players who inspire any real level of confidence. If you include Jessie Speight and Jordan Whitley, you can eke together 11 games of starting experience.
If this line does somehow turn out to be good, it almost certainly starts with Chris Hinton. If I understand Brian’s UFR grading scheme, being around zero for an interior defensive lineman is ok. Himton was -0.5 against Minnesota, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Against Indiana and Rutgers, he was at 4 and 6.5 respectively. I don’t think Brian charted the defense against Penn State. All of this points to Hinton being an ok tackle. The problem is, he very well may be our best interior lineman. On a positive note, he is just going into his third year and it is reasonable to expect continued growth.
The second likely starter is Jeter. He had three ok games with a 0 at Minnesota and an 0.5 at both Michigan State and Indiana. Wisconsin’s big line was a bit of a challenge with a -1.5. He did register a 7 against Rutgers.
Our best hope is that Hinton takes a big jump and that Jeter can also progress. That still leaves us with an open spot and no backups. Mazi Smith is probably the leader for that third slot. Hs got praise from Harbaugh in the spring, but moving from little playing time on a defense to starting is a big jump. While the chances of at least one of these three to make real improvement is realistic, the chances of all three improving significantly is much less realistic.
Unfortunately, Kemp, the guy we are replacing was probably our best interior defensive lineman. While he had a -2.5 against Minnesota, all his other games were positive. He had a low of 2 against Wisconsin and a high of 9.5 against Michigan State.
There are few other obvious candidates for significant time next year. Julius Welschof is the only other player to make an impact. Given how new he is to football, he may also have the most room for significant improvement. The other name that has gotten buzz is Jordan Whittley. Personally I am highly skeptical that he will have much impact. He is recovering from heart issues, is over-weight amd has not practiced in over a year. I found one article that suggested his transfer was driven by the fact that he was not medically cleared.
After that, we are looking at walk-ons, guys who were significantly below DT weight last year, true freshman and players there has been no buzz about. Walkons incude: Jessie Speight, who did start the bowl game against Alabama to end the 2019 season and Joey George who was scout defensive player of the week for Rutgers week. They weighed in at 290 and 287 respectively last year. Kris Jenkins has gotten some buzz, but he was 265 last year and still may be a year away. While we had a solid late recruiting class with 4 stars Rayshaun Benny, and George Rooks, along with late riser Ike Iwunnah and Dominick Giudice, they are probably not the answer this year.
We have dug a deep hole at the interior defensive line position, it is not clear that this is the year we dig our way out of it.
Jordan Whittley Article
You be as verbose as you want. I like these reviews.
This one is pretty depressing. I hope others offer some optimism.
Your candor is the best part. I think any sane fan knows the epic failure that the "build a DT" program was. Hopefully Macdonald can scheme around this until our young guys fill out and become contributors.
I agree 100%
I like these reviews. A lot of thought has gone into them. A great distraction from the nonstop chicken little posts and comments.
Not sure how many other position groups I will get through but this will definitely be the most negative
Thanks for another great post.
I guess my question would be whether being an "ok" d-lineman in Don Brown's defense will necessarily translate to being just "ok" in Macdonald's defense. I'm not much of an X&O guy, but it's my understanding that the new defense simplifies the DL responsibilities significantly. Also, having more size on the field than Brown's defense will prevent double-teams or, if someone is doubled, free up another d-lineman.
i came to post something similar. Bigger guys like mazi, Benny and Whittley might be more serviceable in this defense. Seth mentioned that Macdonald wants to plug the middle and force everything outside by using a one-gap system.
To me, this would be a great deep-dive for Seth. How do DTs in Brown's 4 DL compare to Macdonald's 5 DL setup. In Brown's defense, you needed 2 really good DT's that could hold up to double teams and put pressure on the QB. My understanding of the Macdonald defense is that you need a NT space eater and the other two can be more like 5Ts.
To me the key is do we have a NT. Unfortunately, I think Mazi and Whitley are the only DTs, and my guess is Whitley is more back-up than starter. Mazi stepping up would be a game changer. I see Hinton as a star if he can play on the end instead of NT. I think Jeter will be ok to good if he is an end instead of NT. Weischof and Hutchison should be great as the outside tackles on passing downs. Speight should be ok as a back-up on the outside if he doesn't have to play too much.
If Mazi (or Whitley) is starter quality and can play a high percentage of non-passing downs, the DTs could be fine. Most likely he's a year away from starting and playing well but maybe he'll get there as the year goes along.
Unless Hinton actually plays like a 5-star, we're fucked.
Totally agree. The DL is gonna be hard to watch perform. Great teams have great DL's. Year seven in Jim's regime and we put this DL on the field.... no excuse......
I think Mazi will be better than Hinton.
If that happens, we could be pretty good. Little evidence so far since Hinton has gotten significantly more play.
Yep, just a guess on my part.
How can a 300+lb lineman with the last name Smith not be a world beater? It's in the Smith DNA.
Unless Hinton actually plays like a 5-star, we're fucked.
You can say that again.
Do not underestimate the man beast Sasquatch Mazi Smith. It’s his time to shine.
If he plays like the estimate man beast he is, we may just be in luck.
It’s an estimate.
Any team with a powerful offensive line is going to be a significant problem for Michigan, even if Michigan has no DL injuries.
Let's see -
Washington has 5 returning upperclass starters.
Wisconsin is Wisconsin.
Indiana has 5 upperclass starters (including Zach Carpenter).
Sparty has 5 upperclass starters.
Ohio State is Ohio State.
We all learned in 2009 and 2010 that if your defensive line can't stop anything, nothing else really matters. Hopefully that's not what's coming this fall.
I agree that we are a bit on the thin side here, and are in need of a couple players that haven't played significantly to transition into solid rotation places. However, if I squint, I can see a solid Defensive line here that may have enough weight to not get shoved around as bad as you are anticipating. Based on situation, the pieces will shift. For instance, on a passing down, Jeter could be removed for Hinton or Smith. On a running down, Welschof may be replaced by Hinton or Smith. Hutchinson may also flip over to the other (Uncovered) DE spot as needed. Again, there are holes where we need someone we haven't seen to step up and take some snaps.
DE (Uncovered by Rush LB)
Welschof (286 los)
NT
Jeter (318 lbs)
DE/T (Covered by Rush LB)
Hinton (305 lbs)
Smith (305lbs)
Rush LB
Hutchinson (269 lbs)
Ojabo (250 lbs)
To think the DTs are any good in 2021 you have to believe one of two things. Maybe these are 3 things? One Hinton and/or Mazi are finally going to live up to their recruiting rankings or Whittley can perform up to his ability. None of those things have ever happened before. I am hopeful, but I don't have high expectations. I think Mazi is the best hope.
Are they strong enough?
Is anyone ever?
Are you saying they need more MGoStrength?
Exactly hahahaha
If Hinton significantly improves, but Mazi and Jeter only marginally improve, is that enough?
If Mazi somewhat magically turns into a dominant 5 star lineman and Hinton and and Jeter marginally improve, that may be enough, but is it likely? Mazi got very scattered backup minutes behind Hinton and Jeter, neither of whom were particularly good. Is it likely that he not only surpasses them, but somehow becomes a dominant lineman?
Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith stepping up to their recruiting ranking potential. One or two guys in addition playing above their recruiting ranking. And at least one freshman doing what highly-touted freshman do at other schools being an instant impact player. That is what it takes on the defensive line. If Donovan Jeter and Jess speight play with Grit and moxie and Smith and Hinton play like five stars... and someone like George Rooks or rayshaun benny play up to their billing early then that's how you have success.
The question is, which of those things are likely to happen?
Hinton is probably more likely to be that guy given that he was able to contribute as a freshman and start as a sophomore. He had 10 total tackles in his freshman year and 13 in a Covid shortened second year. You can see flashes if potential there and hope he busts out this year. Mazi, on the other hand has all of 3 tackles in his career and his path to more playing time has not been blocked by great players in front of him. What is there to suggest that he us all if a sudden going to be playing like a 4 star lineman?
Welschof may have the opportunity to be a solid contributor, but what other guy do you suggest is going to play above his recruiting rankings.
I love great walk on stories as much as the next guy, Jessie Speight is a fifth year senior. Is there anything to suggest that he is the next Ryan Glasgow?
Hinton stepping up and being a plus player, I could buy. Jeter, a returning starter improving a bit and playing with moxie, I can buy. A third player is going to have to step up big time even to have three quality starters.
If they can plug up the middle and force the offenses to the edge then they might be successful, the second part of the equation is do we have the horses to catch them there? At any rate for the interior of the DL the starters are likely serviceable if not great, the problem will be in that there is little depth and these guys need to be rotated just to stay fresh not to mention injuries. Any major injuries in this group will spell doom.
I'll tell you what it would take--a Festivus miracle.
Jeter has received varying degrees of hype since he decommitted from Notre Dame. 14 total tackles, 0 sacks, 0 TFL’s. I’d be happy to be wrong, but odds are we shouldn’t count on much. We have to hope this staff can get B- performances up front from Hinton/Smith/back-ups, just to tread water, and hope for creating lots of turnovers.
It does seem thin. Any word on Jack Stewart, who moved to defense? I think he’s around 315.
Jeter is so puzzling to me; more than an D-lineman recently. He has great size for a nose, his base is great, he gets off the ball pretty well, and has good pad level. He has everything you want from a space eating 0 or 1 tech.
Yet somehow he gets single blocked and blown off the ball more than anyone I have seen with those tools than I have ever seen.
Jeter makes me think that a big part of the problem is Shaun Nua.
It could be. It could also be that his processing of what's in front of him in Don Brown's defense wasn't quick enough and so he played tentative.
DL is very important every year but THIS season they need to be extra good to make up for deficiencies in the back 7. We need multiple disruptors that can shed blocks and get to the QB without having to blitz. If the DL can take a big leap this year then my worry drops from DEFCON 1/2 to 4.
Yeah, talk all you want. These are good posts.
But yes, a miracle. DT development was awful prior to this year, and those chickens are coming home to roost.
Next year looks more promising. My eyes are on 2022 overall.
Our collective eyes have been on "next year" for far too long. Good defensive play, in every sport, is deeply grounded in effort. Perhaps Macdonald and staff can flip enough switches to make this affair a pleasant surprise. That the NFL keeps drafting Michigan players in goodly numbers informs one that talent is not the greatest deficiency of this program.
If you're implying they're not trying hard enough, I can get on-board with that after last year, though I think that pre-2020, effort wasn't a huge problem.
But development across the board (and, specific to this post, questionable DT recruiting and development) has been a problem lately. The NFL knows this -- they draft our players knowing they can develop them.
There was an article posted yesterday at Rivals about the d-line.
“First of all, he completely changed his body into a power pack,” Harbaugh said.
If you click the text it will take you through to the story. But it sounds like hype going into fall has Mazi Smith contributing a lot more this coming season. We will see how it plays out. Maybe this defense is a better fit for him!
IIRC, no one was talking about Messner or Hammerstein in 1984 (unless you were on the receiving end of a Hammerstein "drive" to the basket at the CCRB), and then the next year they led the best UM defense until 1997. It could happen ...
The best thing imo is switching the defensive scheme starting up front to what these guys do well or better. Next, pushing gap control over just pressure over and over with guys who couldn't get it done. Also, Hinton and Mazi are third year, Jeter I can't recall 5, 6 or 7th year.. So we now have upper class line again. And we are hoping one of the three tr fr can give snaps and is ready to play 10-20 snaps a game... Hoping...
This has been the weakest part of the defense going on a few years now. Corner now a close second... ugh.
Conclusion: We better score a lot of points.
Harbaugh has absolutely no clue how to score a lot of points. He is entirely incapable of getting an offense to even line up fast enough, to have a chance to score a lot of points.
If Don Brown was still around, I'd agree we are likely in for a very bad year without massive leaps from Hinton and Smith. Switching to the new 3 DT front - who the hell knows. If their jobs truly have been simplified and they pick things up quickly - diagnosing and playing "fast", we have more than enough talent there to be decent. I'd say it's equally possible we suffer a transition year. There should be some leaps from a few players at this point with the sheer number of guys we have with years of experience.
Realistically, I say they are good enough to put a hurting on bad OL's, struggle early in the season with good OL's, and are good enough not to be a glaring weak point by the OSU game. Just the likelihood that the offense should be better is going to help out the DL and the D as a whole compared to last year.
One nitpick. Julius Welscof cannot be considered new to football or young. As a senior, he is in his 4th year now. He played some high school too. He has had plenty of time to develop mentally, technically, and physically.
I'm honestly still confused by this defense. I don't fully understand all the determining factors that separate someone from being a non-nose DT vs being an Edge. I mean, if the defense is going to be mostly a 3-4 with some 4-3, where does someone like Aiden Hutchinson line up? Is he on the line for one of those but off the line for the other?
If you watch the Baltimore Ravens defense you will get a better understanding of how they use their DLine. True definition of multiple when a DC says they want to be multiple. Many say it, but don't do it .
That said, it's the first time iv'e been confident since 2017 regarding the defense! 2018 had moments but I knew we didn't have the dline needed to dominate like 2016! Sad thing is, if we had Mo Hurst and a couple players from the 2016 dline it would have been the most devastating defense Michigan had since 97.