What will it take for Michigan to make the tournament?

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

With 4 games remaining in the season, Michigan sits at 7-7 in the Big Ten and 17-10 overall; we are squarely on the bubble, but currently on the right side of it. I'm not a bracketology expert, so I wanted to pose a few scenarios to those who are more well versed in the subject. 

 

I think it seems pretty clear that if we go 3-1 in our final four games, we are in safely (barring a blowout loss in the first round of the BTT). On the other hand, if we go 1-3 or worse we are out (barring a Big Ten Tournament Championship, or maybeeeeee a competitive loss in the finals). 

 

Furthermore, if we go 2-2 AND win 2 or more games in the Big Ten tournament (make it to the semis or finals) we should be in. Conversely, 2-2 with a first round loss in the BTT means we're likely out. 

 

Therefore, there are two scenarios that provide murkier outcomes, both involving Michigan going 2-2 in the rest of the regular season and winning just one game in the Big Ten tournament. This would mean Michigan would finish 20-13 overall, with a 10-10 record in the conference (including the tournament). 

  1. The Most Predictable Outcome: Michigan finishes the Big Ten regular season 9-9 after beating both Rutgers and Nebraska on the road, but falling to Purdue in Crisler and Northwestern in Evanston. Michigan wins their first game in the Big Ten tournament, but loses game 2 in the quarterfinals to one of Wisconsin, Purdue or Maryland. 
  2. One Upset Win and One Bad Loss: Michigan beats Rutgers, then splits its remaining games against tournament teams by picking up a big win against either Purdue or Northwestern, yet the Wolverines end the season on a sour note by dropping a bad loss in Lincoln to the Huskers.  Once again, we win our Thursday game in D.C., but lose on Friday to a ranked team. 

Of the two scenarios above, how likely would we be to make it? Would we have a chance in either? Is one of the scenarios better for our chances than the other?

I personally think it might be better to get another Top 50 win and lose to Nebraska, than just beat the teams we're supposed to beat. 

Tater

February 19th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^

Sorry, but it will take a miracle for Michigan to make the NCAA Tournament now.  This isn't one of Michigan's better teams.  I would rather see them make a deep run in the NIT and get the young guys some tournament experience.

HireWayne

February 19th, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^

A miracle?  Michigan has 9 top RPI wins (5 more than last years tournmant team) and is 17-10 (7-7). 

What bubble teams get in ahead of us?

Clemson 14-12  (4-10)

Texas Tech  17-10  (5-9)

TCU  17-10  (6-8)

Syracuse 16-12  (8-7)

Wake Forest  15-12  (6-9)

Georgia Tech  16-11 (7-7)

Seton Hall  16-10  (6-8)

Providence  16-11 (6-8)

Marquette  16-10  (7-7)  *We blew them out on a neutral court

Michigan St  (16-11)  (8-6) 

***And Michigan has more top 100 RPI than any of these teams and better RPI than most.

 

TrueBlue2003

February 20th, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^

You say this every year.  Nobody wants this.  Ever.  No coach, no player, no recruit, no fan.  This is also a pretty good Michigan team.  Talented (3rd most talented team under Beilien).  Playing hard. Top 30 in kenpom despite a stretch in which we decided not to play defense. Got hosed tonight but that's a road game against a team that's top 25 RPI.  We could definitely make the sweet 16 and we could have last year (were leading eventual elite 8 ND with 5 min left).

NIT tournament experience is stupid because they're home games that no one cares about.  Three of those aren't even as good for a team's experience as preparing for one neutral site game in the Big Dance.

jmblue

February 19th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^

Probably 20 wins, although getting in with 19 isn't out of the question.  Tonight's loss is frustrating because it was a golden opportunity to pretty much seal the deal, with Rutgers coming up next, but we're still in OK shape if we win Wednesday..  

 

Ty Butterfield

February 19th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^

If Michigan is still on the bubble Staee should be out. Zero good nonconference wins and a loss to Northeastern.

MichiganMAN47

February 19th, 2017 at 11:42 PM ^

3 more wins:

1. @Rutgers (Must Win)
2. Purdue (nearly a Must Win)
3. @Northwestern or @Nebraska or BTT

This could seriously go either way. If we do the unthinkable and lose to Rutgers we don't have much of a chance. Beating Purdue at home will not be easy. They are a very tough matchup for us, but a win would be a huge boost to our resume. Then they have to pick up one more tough one on the road.

TrueBlue2003

February 20th, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^

between your two scenarios because like you said - if the tradeoff of losing Nebraska which isn't a "good" loss but it's still top 100, is beating Purdue or NW - it would even it out.

I think 20 wins will be enough, as long as 19 are in the regular season, no matter which games we win.  I'm more concerned with seeding for tourney run which is what hurt so bad about tonight.  Probably cost two seed lines and put a possible 6 seed nearly out of the picture (would have to win next four to have a chance).

drzoidburg

February 20th, 2017 at 2:31 AM ^

If you mean the tournament proper, as in not the play-in / needless expansion round, probably 4 more wins, one less if Purdue. For the play-in, 3 wins should do

I don't think it matters much though. In my lifetime i don't recall lower than a 5 seed make the FF

Rabbit21

February 20th, 2017 at 6:15 AM ^

It's not just the stupid in the last sentence, it's the easily googled stupid that is really something.



Might be better to say you don't think they're playing well enough to make the final four or don't have what one of those lower seeds had to make it, but the lower than a five seed thing is one where you may need to sit in the corner and think about what you did.

pbmd

February 20th, 2017 at 8:51 AM ^

Just being included in a field of 64 is no accomplishment

Much more interesting to follow a competitive team who is trying to be the best

Michigan should not be in the position of hoping for a chance to be Cinderella

The coach is out competed in recruiting

The team is out competed in the paint

smwilliams

February 20th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^

I think 20-21 wins will see them safely in. Ideally, they sweep @ Nebraska and @ Rutgers (avoiding a bad loss), and win either the Purdue game or @ Northwestern. That puts them at 20-11, 10-8 going into the BTT. 1 win and they're in. 2-3 wins and they'll end up in the 7-10 range.

Boner Stabone

February 20th, 2017 at 9:16 AM ^

Bubble is extremely soft this year.  Two wins in the last 4 gets us in.  There are other teams from other conferences that they have pegged into the tournament with losing conference records.  .500 in the B1G will get us in this year.  Just dont lose to Rutgers.

Mgodiscgolfer

February 20th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^

They're on the bubble. Then they win 2 games against Sparty and Wisky, then they're positively in, get your ticket money together your going to "The Dance". Then they lose the next game on the road in heart breaking fashion to Minnesota.  Michigan's back on the bubble, "what will take to get into The Dance"? The sky is falling "Michigan has one of the worst defense in all of college basketball" "It's gonna take a miracle" Were all gonna die. What gives?