What We Are Up Against vs. OSU (The Recruiting Data)

sure, and he will probably just kiss your wife on the mouth for extra good measure

Expanding the field at this point may not solve anything, at least in the near term.  Because the idiots running the NCAA created a positive feedback loop, it feels to me that the recruiting cycle has gone through an unprecedented hysteresis. The gap is so huge, recruits won’t suddenly flock to the #6 team for making the playoffs because the 2nd tier has more turmoil and loses to one of the regulars by 35 points anyway. So nothing would have changed.

It’s a problem that will take far more intelligence and leadership to fix than what caused it, which doesn’t bode well.

Aidan Hutchinson was a 4 star and # 112 overall.

Yep, you can see the problem in the title of the OP.

You don't go up against recruiting stats; you go up against a football team.

And you don't go up against them with your recruiting stats; you go up against them with your football team.

Bingo. SEC recruiting & preparation involves far more than bagmen - it’s a system that creates a single focus on football and players entirely committed to “pre NFL” activity.
It all ties to actions and the message of priorities. When Tim Williams gets 1/2 game suspension for carrying a non licensed handgun on campus, that relays a big message to current players and recruits about Bama’s priorities. When Hernandez is repeatedly arrested and assaults guys on campus with no punishment by Urban, that sends a message to players and recruits. When Fields at OSU or Burrows at LSU doesn’t step on campus for classes, that sends a clear message to players and recruits.

This isn’t a statement on morality or academics, just a recognition of the culture to create a top tier football factory.

Don’t hold your breath on the Michigan money cannon BS. I’ve heard it so often here with no positive results in recruiting 

We will never catch them sleeping like they did with Purdue. If you remember that year, we were blasting our opponents and OSU looked TERRIBLE every single week. They scored more points on us (I think we had the #1 def at that point) than any of their other opponents.

Northwestern last beat OSU in 2004. I think perhaps you meant Iowa. Anyway you slice it, OSU has lost a total of 4 Big Ten games during JH’s tenure and Ryan Day has lost….zero. The Big Ten games that OSU has lost during JH’s tenure have been true aberrations. As far as the blueprint for a Big Ten team beating Day’s Buckeyes, there isn’t one. Here’s hoping we can somehow create one on Saturday. OSU is on the verge of winning their 5th straight conference championship. Only Clemson has more consecutive championships (6), and that’s largely because they play in a far weaker conference overall.

Pretty sure it’s safe to assume OSU overlooked Purdue and Iowa (who I assume you meant instead of NW) and that those teams actually AREN’T four touchdowns better. 
 

I’ll also go out on a limb and say Michigan will never be afforded the luxury of being overlooked by OSU. Yes, upsets can happen. Bounces can go your way. You can get a favorable call or two. But “Iowa and Purdue did it, why can’t we?” Isn’t really applicable in a situation where OSU will never play us the way they played them. Those are games OSU can typically sleepwalk through and get away with it, with there being essentially no negative repercussions for losing it. Michigan, again, never has that luxury. 

Freudian slip Ghost? You said OSU has a very smart way of “paying” offense 

Is there any reason to believe that Michigan's 3-4 stars are underrated at a higher rate than OSU's 5/very high 4 stars are overrated?

I would guess it is the opposite.  Variance on 5/very high 4 stars panning out is probably lower than the variance on 3/regular 4 stars panning out.

The point of the stars system is that over the course of a recruiting class, and especially over the course of 3-5 recruiting classes for a roster, is that it balances out. They’re right enough, and their “misses” counteract each other enough that they’re rankings as a whole are “accurate.” 
 

“Starts don’t matter” when evaluating an individual recruit. Chris Olave is good. Being a 3* ranked #399 overall has no bearing on how good he is (or would have been at the time). When you expand that to 25 players in a class and 85 players on a roster, it becomes much more “accurate.” Which is why it’s not worth throwing a hissy fit if Michigan takes a lower ranked guy, but it’s more concerning when the entire class becomes made up of lower ranked guys.  
 

The fact that the hits and misses balances back out in the macro, means that it IS as stark as the analysis indicates.