What are you realistic expectations for the season now?

10-2, steadily improve throughout yr, defense lights out when not facing mobile qbs, offense figures it out quick, smashes weaker opponents, and hangs with stronger ones without being able to throw it deep due to protection.

11-1.

Initially after the game I was thinking we could still go maybe 9-3 with a win against MSU or OSU. Now after rewatching the game and really breaking it down I’m thinking more like 7-5 with a bowl win, so 8-5 overall. 

We just don’t really stand out in any area - we’re average. Even this “once in a lifetime” D line has a weak interior (Solomon may make up for it in the future though). Constant issues with the defense are - not keeping outside contain, over pursuing false keys, and taking terrible pursuit angles. In an ideal world I’d say these are easily coachable, but shit... if they couldn’t clearly see and identify these in the game I don’t know. I’m still not sure whether the 2nd half was us getting better or ND getting conservative. 

I think Don Brown also needs to cut this man to man all game shit too. I know this will be an unpopular opinion but you cannot play this style unless you are pound for pound better than the opponent... and against good teams we are not. This is why you guys have a circle jerk when we dominate Akron on D but we can’t get a stop against a good team on 3rd when an average QB just heaves it up on a fade. You got DE sized LBs in guys like Furbush guarding slot receivers and tight ends. You’re setting him up to fail for God’s sake. This isn’t Alabama... we don’t have freaks. Teams see the mismatches and attack them. It doesn’t help that the safeties don’t provide any help over the top... and where was our “ballhawk” when we needed him the most.

I didn’t even realize how repulsive the run game was until I tuned into Cowherd. Joel Klatt said “Michigan averaged 1.76 yards per carry in week 1... only 1 other power 5 team averaged less - Louisville against Alabama.” This put it into perspective, but this isn’t all on the OL. There were running lanes that were just missed. Some were admittedly narrow but some you could drive a truck through. For whatever reason Higdon and occasionally Chris Evans love to run into guards backs like it’s a hobby. The backs may be a little better if we had a real running back coach and Jim wasn’t practicing nepotism.

IDK where to go from here. I guess like the “rational” fans say, “It was just one game... we’re young... Notre Dame is the best ever, playing shitty is expected and a given... everything is ok with the team... next season is the real season of improvement...”, blah blah blah.

I just want to see us be a great team or even just a good team. I try to temper my expectations but I can’t help but hope for the best, only to get crushed repeatedly. And this gets old living in Columbus with everyone constantly talking shit. I’d rather lose every other game and whip OSU’s ass than go 7-5 with losses to ND, Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and OSU. But if you think ND has a DL go watch OSU this Saturday. They will literally run laps around Runyan if he’s still playing by then.

For anyone else who want to rewatch the game, below is a link that breaks it down to under 40 minutes. 

https://youtu.be/RtUrFij_HaY

We beat the cupcakes, we pull 1 of msu osu wisc psu out of our asses, we beat some shitty team in the bowl game (maybe) and end 9-4.

Originally I predicted 9-3 with losses to ND, WI and OSU. I think it is still possible but I now have to throw in MSU, PSU and NU as being toss ups. Nebraska at home may be tougher than I had thought. I guess I'm more down on our D. ND is not a good offensive team and our D may not be elite the way I had thought. But only time will tell. So 9-3 will be our high bar and 6-6 may be our low bar now.

It's a tough slate, and at this point in time it's tough to say where this team stands in overall competition. After an opening loss it's easy to see it all too negatively.

But from where I stand now there's only 5 wins I'd pencil in on the schedule. There's 2 more where I'd like to say we ought to win. Then there's 4 toss-ups.

I'd personally say, it's

5-7      3%   - possible but a lot would have to go wrong

6-6     10%  - more plausible, you just need to lose at NW or to Nebraska as well

7-5     23%  - quite plausible and not that unlikely, win the obvious ones but drop the toss-ups

8-4     33% -  perhaps most likely, win what's obvious and win one of the harder games

9-3     20% -  still quite possible, win an additional toss-up.

10-2   10% -  less likely but still not implausible, win the next 10 but then drop the OSU game.

11-1     1% - quite unlikely, a whole lot would have to go our way to win out

That looks like math but really is just a quantification of my gut instinct. And yes, I know that 5-7 and 6-6 are below even what a lot of negative posters say, but that doesn't mean it's not possible. Always be prepared for a range of outcomes.

I not only "penciled" it as a loss, I figured the most likely path to the CFP is with an early loss that tempers expectations and gives the team space to grow. And, since an "on the road against a ranked rival in the first game of the season" loss is the most quality one there is, it actually opens up a chance for a "special" season.

That being said, the performance sat. leads me to believe at least one more loss on the horizon but that they will be peaking at the right time if they get it turned around.

Since the Oline and blocking in general are a group exercise, it is the one aspect of football were lack of talent can be mitigated with strong leadership and the group mentality, that gives a better chance of shoring up their achilles heel this year than years past.

Champ                           3%

CFP                               7%

B1G Champ Game W  12%

B1G champ L               18%

10-2                              18%

9-3                                21%

8-4                                11%

7-5                                  6%

6 or less                          4%

Beat shitty teams. Lose to good ones. Pretty much par for the course for this program as long as I can remember. 

Predicted 10-2 before the season, but after seeing last weeks game i'm changing it to 7-5 maybe 6-6... i could see losing another to someone like Indiana or Northwestern. 

Losses: Wisc, PSU, MSU, and OSU. 

10-2 loss to Ohio State