weekly bracketology - M a 4 seed
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
according to joe lunardi. no movement from last week. still has 8 B1G teams in.
February 6th, 2012 at 2:39 PM ^
Except we moved from the South region to the West. Does anyone know how they pick which region your in?
February 6th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^
I think they keep the best of the same # seed closest to home.
For example, if Michigan and Illinois were both #4 seeds, but the committee thought M was a better #4 seed, we would be in the midwest, and Illinois would be in another region.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:10 PM ^
Despite their names, the regions are not really geography-based anymore. Only the Sweet 16/regional final are actually in those regions. The opening rounds can be anywhere. You could play an "East" region game in Oregon.
February 6th, 2012 at 6:49 PM ^
On the long shot these hold up, Michigan is in the "West" region but would be playing the first few games in Nashville
February 6th, 2012 at 8:59 PM ^
to catch a game in Nashville.
February 6th, 2012 at 6:40 PM ^
lunardi never gets the locations right. I remember someone looked at it one year and he had like 64 of 65 teams but like 10 of them in the right place, you can pretty much ignore the matchups he comes up with, he isn't even that great on seed lines.
February 6th, 2012 at 6:53 PM ^
The other thing about Lunardi is that his "great record" is based on what he predicts on Selection Sunday itself - not what he predicts earlier in the season. It's really not all that hard to figure out which bubble teams are going to get in by the time you get to that final weekend. And the other 55 or so teams are either automatically in or are obvious at-large teams.
February 6th, 2012 at 2:41 PM ^
and then realized it was about basketball and not hockey.
February 6th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
I would take that draw in a heart beat. Oral Roberts followed by Creighton. We would have a very good chance of making the 2nd week of the tourney. Not to mention we would face the weakest of the 1 seeds in Mizzou. Unfortunately, everything will change.
February 6th, 2012 at 2:49 PM ^
I think a little high, but close. This team doesn't feel like a top-16 team right now, but a top-20/25 team surely. I'd honestly rather be a 5 seed just because as a 4 seed you tend to get the really good mid-major from a small conference; with a 5 seed, you might get a "bigger name" opponent but they tend to be floundering BCS teams with more defined issues.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:33 PM ^
according to statistic, you'd be better off as a #4 seed than #5 seed. #5 seed has a higher chance of losing in 1st round by a wide margin compared to #4 seed. #5 seed always play against a really good underrated teams that is severely underseeded.
I've seen several projected #12 seeds teams like Xavier, Long Beach State. No thanks!
February 6th, 2012 at 2:55 PM ^
Are these bracket projections made assuming the season ended today, or does Lunardi consider how a team will do through the rest of the regular season? I clicked around all over that page and couldn't find the answer, but I just got back from class and the gym so I'm not functioning at 100%.
Thanks in advance if someone answers this.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:30 PM ^
I believe it is based on the season ending today.
February 6th, 2012 at 3:19 PM ^
I would be pretty dissapointed if they didn't make it into the 2nd weekend with this draw. Michgian matches up perfectly against these teams.
February 6th, 2012 at 3:26 PM ^
needs to be a 2-win week for us. we've been alternating in the tough part of our schedule, and that's fine. but we need to win both games this week against a bad team on the road and a decent team at home.
February 6th, 2012 at 3:29 PM ^
I will streak the quad. We are just averager than most other teams. If we can somehow play tourney games at home, we have a chance. Otherwise, let's just continue to dribble around aimlessly and lose unspectacularly.
I love this team, but let's be honest, by the time this is all said and done we probably will be and we probably deserve to be an 8 or 9 seed again.
February 6th, 2012 at 3:36 PM ^
I don't mind a healthy dose of skepticism, but an 8 or 9 seed? That assumes Michigan is barely a top 30-35 team. I could see UM as low as a 6 seed, but 8-9 seems way low, even with Hardaway's and Metrics' struggles. Get those guys back on track and this team could easily be a 4-5 seed. They'd have to really play some mediocre ball over the last few weeks of the season to fall that far, imo.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:19 PM ^
Fortunately it doesn't matter what you "feel" about how good this team is with respect to seeding in the NCAA tourney. Look at the wins UM has in terms of RPI: MSU(6), Indiana(18), Memphis(19) ,ISU(35) Wisconsin(30), Nwestern(37), Minnesota(48). No team with that slew of wins deserves to be an 8/9 seed. Now if UM completely crumbles down the stretch, then we'll talk, but based on how we usually bounce back and the pelts already on our wall, I would seriously doubt a collapse.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:35 PM ^
Michigan RPI is top 15 and their SOS is apparently #1. They got quality wins of MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa State. Their only bad loss is Iowa. Pretty sure that the lowest Michigan will be seeded if the season ends today is #6.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:45 PM ^
We do have the most losses out of any team in the AP or Coaches top 25. Seems to me that a lot of people with some sort of say think a lot about us and the quality of our wins and losses. This leads me to believe the Tourney Committee will probably overvalue us.
Essentially, with the slate of games we have coming up, as long as we win most of the games we're supposed to, we're not dropping to an 8 seed.
February 6th, 2012 at 3:41 PM ^
Ya I think a 4 seed may be a little high but we do have a good RPI and SOS. I am hoping we get a 4 or 5 seed and actually have the potential to play Mizzou in the sweet 16. I think this draw would be very favorable for us. I think we end up being a 6 seed though, maybe a 5. We will see more once we play this week, but we have to win both of these games this week. We can’t keep splitting wins/losses like some have already mentioned…Let’s hope we have a good week and that THJ finally gets out of his funk…Also, it would be nice if Smotz finally showed up
February 6th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^
The AP says Michigan is 22nd and the coaches say 25th, but Lunardi sees Michigan as one of the best 16 teams. I hope there are more like him on the committee. I really don't want to see the Wolverines get a 7-10 slot again. They need to take that "next step" and get to the second weekend. A four seed would really help, though they would have to play a one seed in the round of 16.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:46 PM ^
He's probably basing it a lot on rpi. Projections I've seen have Michigan around the 15-16 range, which is a solid 4 seed.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:49 PM ^
There's seven games left and I sincerely think we win five or six of them. Four / five seems about right.
February 6th, 2012 at 4:52 PM ^
with this draw an elite 8 would be realistic. Mizzou is good but i'd love them in my bracket for what they would be seeded