Week 7 B1G projected scores

Submitted by BuckeyeChuck on October 11th, 2022 at 8:28 PM

Minnesota @ Illinois

  • Vegas predicted score: Minnesota 23-17
  • SP+ predicted score: Minnesota 23-19
  • This one is for West Division supremacy! At least it’s this week’s edition. I get the sense that the West Division will feature a different flavor of the week each week as the new frontrunner. There will only be two West Division teams with a winning conference record after Saturday: the winner of this game, and the winner of freaking Nebraska @ Purdue…

Nebraska @ Purdue

  • Vegas predicted score: Purdue 36-22
  • SP+ predicted score: Purdue 34-20
  • The winner of this game will be the other new flavor of the week in B1G West supremacy. A week later it will be totally different, I’m sure. We all saw it coming before the season that Purdue & Illinois would be Leaders of the West™, right?

Maryland @ Indiana

  • Vegas predicted score: Maryland 36-25
  • SP+ predicted score: Maryland 36-21
  • Indiana bad. Maryland not as bad. Fire also bad. But Indiana more bad. If Maryland could’ve kicked an extra point on their 3rd TD last week they would’ve had a chance to beat Purdue in OT and then be 3-1 after beating Indiana, sitting amongst the East Division big boys. But they’re still Maryland.

Wisconsin @ Michigan St

  • Vegas predicted score: Wisconsin 28-21
  • SP+ predicted score: Wisconsin 29-23
  • In preseason schedule analysis I posted that MSU has a 6-game stretch which will define their season, whether they go 4-2 or 2-4. Welp, they’re already 0-4 in that stretch and with the emergence of Illinois it has now become a 7-game stretch. Tuck Goin’. This is college football where the same team doesn’t show up in consecutive weeks which prevents me from saying something like “if the same Wisconsin team that showed up last week shows up this week” …buuut… if the same Wisconsin team that showed up last week shows up this week, this game will get ugly for Sparty.

Penn St @ Michigan

  • Vegas predicted score: Michigan 30-23
  • SP+ predicted score: Michigan 32-20
  • This is the first BIG B1G game of the season. SP+ likes Michigan 5 points better than Vegas does. I can see Penn St’s defense giving Michigan problems. I can see Penn St’s skill players on offense give Michigan problems. We all know Clifford is gonna ball until his arm falls off (on second thought, that probably wouldn’t even prevent him from balling). But man, I just can’t get past Penn St’s dreadful O-line that makes me think Penn St is not a serious threat to beat Michigan. Penn St’s OL is 83rd in line yards.* Michigan is gonna suffocate PSU's offense at the line of scrimmage. PSU will not be able to run between the tackles but will only be able to run by testing Dax on the edge.**

 

 

*Incidentally, lots of poor OLs in the B1G this year; Rutgers is 72nd in offensive line yards, yet are in the top half of the conference! (7th; almost half the conference [six teams] are ranked 97th or worse!)

**yes, I know, I know. Dax isn’t on the defense anymore. He was moved to WR so he could catch the halfback pass from Charbonnet who took the pitch from Joe Milton. Trust me, I stay current.

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unWavering

October 11th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^

I am gonna be a homer and predict another 2016-esque game where we completely blow the doors off of them from the get go.  Franklin is not a good coach for big time away games, PSU never does well at Michigan when we are good.  21-10 at the half, 42-17 at the end of the game.

Joined: 01/13/2011

MGoPoints: 22437

J. Redux

October 11th, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^

Minnesota vs. Illinois is… a good matchup?

I guess now we get to see which is a fraud: Minnesota's offense or Illinois's defense.  I think I'd take the Illini here.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go lie down. 🤣 

Joined: 10/15/2020

MGoPoints: 21473

bighouseinmate

October 11th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^

“(on second thought, that probably wouldn’t even prevent him from balling)”

PSU can go pack sand for all I care, but mad respect to Clifford and how tough he is. I’ve seen the guy get murdered in games yet he’s still there the next week playing his guts out.

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 4969

M Squared

October 12th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^

I hate that fact but you are correct.  I know because I have been betting this since the line opened.  Some shops opened this as -7.5 and I have seen it go as low as -6.5.  Sharps are expecting Penn St to cover.

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 1908

Ezekiels Creatures

October 12th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^

I saw one article say "heavily" i.e. sharps are betting Penn St "heavily".

Not beating 3 unranked teams decisively may be saying something about the team that Michigan fans weren't expecting with JJ McCarthy at QB, and so are having trouble believing it .

Joined: 03/14/2019

MGoPoints: 28664

M Squared

October 12th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^

I've handicapped for a long time, and I think the view among some in the betting market is that Michigan has shown vulnerabilities in the run defense, and Penn St has shown success in its run game including against Auburn, which is a decent run defense (although a horrific offense).  And I think the view is also that Penn St was not going all out in the Northwestern game, knowing that Northwestern was never going to put up that many points on them. 

With that said, I personally think Michigan pulls out a victory but it's much closer than the blowouts that many in this thread seem to be predicting.  I've taken the moneyline and stayed away from the spread. 

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 1908

rs207200

October 11th, 2022 at 10:30 PM ^

How do you get the Vegas predicted score? Do you calculate it yourself?

 

So say a spread is 9 and the over under is 65. Do you then assume the prediction is 37-28?

Joined: 04/26/2011

MGoPoints: 1904

lhglrkwg

October 12th, 2022 at 6:11 AM ^

I kinda like us 35-20ish. Michigan has been really good at home under Harbaugh for years and I wasn't terribly impressed with PSU vs Purdue. The Auburn whoopin is noteworthy but TBD if that says more about PSU or more about Auburn

Joined: 07/03/2008

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MightyMatt13

October 12th, 2022 at 7:33 AM ^

Obviously the Sparty super bowl happens in Ann Arbor, BUT!

This game is hugely significant for defining just how bad this season will be in EL. Is it your average dumpster, or a dumpster engulfed in hellfire? Lose to Wisconsin and the path to a bowl game is near impossible to imagine. But pull this one out and squint some, and you can still see Tuck Comin (to the famous Idaho potato bowl or perhaps the distinguished [insert credit union of your choice] bowl)

Joined: 02/26/2012

MGoPoints: 5791

Amazinblu

October 12th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^

It's October and the NCAA landscape is definitely getting more interesting.

Minny at Illinois - who is going to play?   Are Devito and Ibrahim available?  If so, will they be near 100%?  Minny is my pick - because the loss of Devito will have a bigger impact on the Illini's offense than the loss of Ibrahim will have on Minny.   The winner is the lead horse in the West race.

Nebraska at Purdue.  The Huskers winning streak come to an end, and puts Purdue in a tie for the West with Minny (but, Purdue has the head to head tiebreaker).

Maryland at Indiana.  Taulia lights it up and the Terps win.

Wisconsin at MSU.  Does Jim Leonhard begin his (temporary) head coaching tenure with a  2-0 record?   I certainly hope so - and, if the Badgers play like they did last Saturday, the Spartans will have their hands full

Elsewhere in the country:

Alabama vs Tennessee.  With or without Young, Bama is going to be challenged.  The Vols haven't hosted a game like this at home since most of their players were born.  I like the Vols to cover, and possibly win.

Oklahoma State at TCU - the winner will lead the Big 12.  TCU will surprise the Cowboys.

NC State at Syracuse - we'll see just how real the Orangemen are.  I think Syracuse wins.

Mississippi State at Kentucky. The Wildcats win at home.

USC at Utah.  The Utes take this one.

 

As for the game in Ann Arbor.  42 - 27.

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 41400

Durham Blue

October 12th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^

I think Vegas' predicted scores are pretty spot on with two exceptions.  I have a gut feel that Michigan will win by more than 7 points.  And MSU may steal a win this week at home to Wisconsin.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30026

MRunner73

October 12th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^

Penn Sate @ Mich will be close but the good guys should win. If Michigan can get to 30 pts, they will win but it might be tough to lay the 30 pts.

Badgers win in a close one over in E Lansing. If Mertz is on with his passing and Wisc can torch that aweful spartan secondary then  it could be a blowout for the Red & White vs the green and white.

Purdue can be fickle but they are on a roll plus they are home so Boilers by more than 14.

The Terps disappointed at home last weekend but this will be a good bounce back game so they should cover the SP+ predicition.

MN @ IL: Will Ibrahim play and reports say he'll be in the game. If he can gash the IL DL, the Gophers will score some points. Minny needs to score at 20 to win. This will likely be a very close game. If IL wins, they'll take to B1G West.

Iowa, NW & Buckeyes have a bye.

Joined: 11/11/2018

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WorldwideTJRob

October 12th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^

See that’s the one thing that scares me…we have been pushed around upfront for stretches in games and our LB’s look lost when filling holes. Penn St. has some legit backs that could pose some problems

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