Week 13 Polls and Ratings - AP #12, Coaches #12
Run down of the advanced stats after Week 12 and MSU win. As usual, FEI won't be out for a couple days so the F/+ (#15 before MSU) and FEI (#15 before MSU) are not updated at this time. Michigan made a slight jump in most of the advanced stats, but I doubt it will be reflected in the CFP rankings on Tuesday.
AP Poll #14: http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches Poll #14: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
F/+ #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
S&P+ #10: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28099946/sp+-rankings-week-12-battle-1-loss-teams
FEI #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Massey Ratings #11 (#12 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
Sagarin Ratings #8 (#10 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI #10: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
SRS #8: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html
538 #11: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/
Michigan's team statistical profile:
ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2019
Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=308075
- Despite dropping out of the Top 25 polls after their loss to PSU, Indiana looks more formidable in the advanced stats and rose in almost all of them despite the loss. Most of the ratings have Indiana rated around #30, but they have risen as high as #20 in S&P+ this week. S&P+ has Indiana almost equal to Notre Dame.
- Ohio State looks like a Death Star. Hopefully, Harbaugh and his band of rebels can find the single massive design vulnerability that will cause its destruction in two weeks. One can dream.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
AP and Coaches Poll should both read #12, not #14.
Michigan also opened up as a -7.5 favorite against @Indiana today.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
When Michigan played Ohio State in ‘69, they were ranked … 12th.?
November 17th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Everyone is fawning over OSU this season, but what exactly is their signature win? Beating a Wisc team that lost to Illinois the prior week? Or an AAC team (cinci) who hasn't really played anyone? Sparty?
They are racking up video-game level points, but against mostly weakened competition. I think they beat psu (since PSU has been lucky to pull off a few of their wins and is vulnerable), but if osu has to go against an actual elite team (which is not us just now, unfortunately)... I think they get an unpleasant surprise.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
It's not like OSU has been playing in the ACC or Pac-12. Big Ten is good this year, and OSU has run roughshod over it so far. Every game they have played has been pretty much over at halftime. Wisconsin gave them a scare for a fleeting moment.
OSU's two toughest games are the next two weeks, but it isn't like they haven't played anybody. Wisconsin is a #10-15 team. Cincinnati and Indiana are decent teams. OSU did have the good fortune of missing Minnesota and Iowa in crossover games this year, but I don't think that would have made much of a difference.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:41 PM ^
Yet their "good" wins aren't even that great. Wisc is the best item on their resume, but that was the same team that couldn't hold a lead against Illinois. Indiana is Indiana - decent but but not really a great team.
Your claim of the Big Ten being strong us a bit misleading - the weakness of many of the lesser Big Ten teams is inflating the numbers of the rest (just like in the SEC). OSU has a resume built almost exclusively on cupcakes and teams performing below expectations. They will still probably win the Big Ten, but these conditions are not mutually exclusive.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Clemson's best win came over Texas A&M at home. And Clemson barely suffered a nick in the polls after escaping at Chapel Hill after Mack Brown went for two and the win instead of a tie. Reputation more than record is the reason Clemson rules nationally, albeit as a team way above the rest of the ACC.
Alabama is willing to play anyone as long as it's in their region of the country. But then none of the SEC teams look to play superior non-conference teams other than Auburn and LSU in recent years.
We've had Florida, Alabama in openers. Saban, as an old Big Ten coach, respects the game played up north and he will compete against anyone. But now he doesn't have to make any bones for his program, he sets the schedule and perpetuates his cycle of championship dominance on his terms. And that means don't put your season in jeopardy in Week 1-3.
Until playoff expansion wipes out the need for seasonal perfection, the bane of college football, even if it creates the anticipation that supercedes the same emotion on the pro level, perfection is a silly standard for any field of competition.
In the closing seconds of yesterday's game beteween Iowa and Minnesota, the play-by-play guy noted that the Gophers dream season was gone in loss, when all of its championship aims remain in front of them. Their performance at Kinnick wasn't perfect hence their loss of perfection in a game that romanticizes perfection as the standard for excellence, makes one lament their loss as even greater than its otherwise wonderful year --which continues.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
OSU won against MSU 34-10? How was M not more impressive ? Whatever. M has a good shot this year.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^
Big Ten is good this year, and OSU has run roughshod over it so far
OSU certainly looks good, but they haven't actually faced most of the teams that make the Big Ten look good. They haven't yet played their top two East opponents (PSU/Michigan) nor have they played Minnesota or Iowa. Wisconsin has basically been it on their league schedule so far.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:06 PM ^
So they’re running roughshod over the teams that they should? Good assessment.
November 18th, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
Ohio St is the 2nd team in the past 100 years to win its first 10 games by at least 24 pts. What they have done so far this season is extraordinary and almost unprecedented, and their schedule has not been as bad as some other teams like 2019 Clemson.
Credit to Chris Vannini at the Athletic for that stat.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:47 PM ^
Its interesting how the seasons play out. At the start of this one, it looked like OSU was at a disadvantage as their three crossovers were the 3 highest preseason ranked West teams; Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. So much for preseason rankings......
November 17th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
That all also describes Clemson and Alabama.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
Completely agree. These teams know how to game a flawed system.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^
They also got UW at home and will get psu at home this weekend. Their first road game against a ranked opponent will be UM.
November 17th, 2019 at 8:37 PM ^
Who qualifies as an "elite" team this year?
November 17th, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^
LSU, for starters.
Has same record as OSU, but (as of today's Sagarin ratings) has played the 13th hardest schedule to date, while OSU has played the 51st. Not only has LSU played better teams than OSU, they played them on the road. The "toughest" games OSU has had this far (Wisc, Cinci) have been at home.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:41 PM ^
OK. That's one. Who are the others?
Also, what elite teams has UM beaten this year? Any of them on the road?
November 17th, 2019 at 10:13 PM ^
I like where your mind is at, crg. Very much so. Tell me more about this unpleasant surprise you speak of. Does it have anything to do with a game on Nov 30th?
November 17th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
I was thinking it would be between 9 and 12 point spread. This seems a little light to me.
Indiana has only played 2 teams with winning records in 10 games. They are 0-2 against teams with winning records and 7-1 against teams with losing records. The only team with a losing record to beat them was MSU.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^
I think the spread may get smaller. Indiana is a good team. They are at home and will be sky high to play Michigan. Michigan could be a little flat footed at first after an emotional victory over MSU. I really am concerned about this game.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
Will they be sky high? This is as much a trap game for them as it is for us. They're coming off an emotional loss to PSU, and have their archrival (Purdue) next week. We might not get their A game.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:43 PM ^
This game is circled by Mike Hart... trust me, they will be jacked.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
He's not playing though.
It's obviously a big game for them, but not necessarily bigger than the one they just played or the one next week. It's tough to get up for them all.
November 17th, 2019 at 8:18 PM ^
I’m totally fine with Jay on staff at this point, but damn I’d love it if Hart got to coach at UM against Mork.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:02 PM ^
Michigan is IU's bowl game. Comparatively they don't give a crap about Purdue, IMHO. I am expecting IU's very best shot this week.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^
S&P+ has Indiana almost equal to Notre Dame.
Praying for rain.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
Their best win is Nebraska, and they lost to MSU. If we get anything close to current form Shea then we win comfortably. If not......still not in the top 4 scariest games on the schedule.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
Why the arbitrary cutoff at top 4? I would argue that @Indiana on the road would be #5 right now, and that would have been laughed at before the season started. Indiana may not have the marquee win, but their play on the field has been around the #30 team in the country. That is nothing to sneeze at.
And I am not sure ranking the toughest games on the Michigan schedule means that much this year. Michigan is going to end up with a regular season SOS in the top 5. The schedule ended up being tougher than it even looked before the season.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
Agreed, Michigan has played a tough schedule. These last two games will make it more tough. Win both and our ranking will change by a lot. We'd not only be the best two loss team in the country but leap over most of the one loss teams.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
If we win both we'll be ranked 5 or 6, further enraging those of us calling for a playoff expansion.
I'm just glad OSU has a team to prepare for this week instead of a cupcake. Maybe PSU will wear them down a bit.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
Al gore needs to be here on Saturday, stat. Sat. Stat on sat. Just all of the weather, stat. Please stop/start normal activity.
rib tips, rib sandwiches, and chicken wings!!!!
November 17th, 2019 at 3:43 PM ^
Ohio is going to be our super bowl this year. . . .
Prepare as best we can for Indiana obviously, but the season comes down to those cheating fuckheads in Columbus . .
November 17th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Beating osu and either going to the rose bowl or winning a matchup against a team like Georgia or Alabama in a different bowl game would be a wonderful season.
November 17th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
Beating OSU would make this a very productive year
November 17th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
dammit, if only the hoosiers could have pulled it out against the Pedos
November 17th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
If that had happened, then we'd have about a 3% chance.
- Michigan over @Indiana 77.0%
- Michigan over OSU 22.2%
- PSU over @OSU 15.7%
(My earlier post stating we'd win a three-way tiebreaker was wrong. PSU would win via
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
https://btn.com/big-ten-football-division-tiebreakers/
November 17th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
Watched that game closely. IU almost did it (and quite frankly should have). PSU has gotten many breaks to go their way thus far this season - home field advantage saved them more than once. Sadly, I don't see them pulling it off in Columbus.
November 17th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
Phrasing...
November 17th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
Michigan probably leads the nation with next week opponent being the top “also received votes”
that #25 helps a lot. Although winning is all that matters from here on out.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
If only Harbaugh got that elusive but oh so crucial 2nd top 25 road win the media would lay off the Harbaugh on the hot seat narrative.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^
Or the media just moves the hot-seat bar (again).
November 17th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^
Jim still hasn't found a way to win a game in which his team has been outscored.
He's got to get over that hump.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
Ah, the craziness of CFB. Mich has been playing well since the 2nd half of PSU and has a lot of talent. But I was at the Wisconsin game and the interior of our D line just got caved in by the Badgers. Maybe we've fixed that problem? Please? Don Brown? But I think being ranked 2 spots ahead of a Wisconsin who has the same record is so ... College Football. And I love it.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:48 PM ^
Wisconsin lost to Illinois. Seems like they have been struggling since steam rolling Michigan. Whereas, Michigan has been ascending. Right now, I would take Michigan on the road vs Wisconsin and PSU.
November 17th, 2019 at 8:21 PM ^
We were down two DL and had to start Mason. The problem got “fixed” as soon as those guys got game ready.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^
Death Stars are meant to be blown up
November 17th, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
November 17th, 2019 at 8:12 PM ^
well, maybe psu's quick little shit will perform like purdue's quick little shit last year.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:47 PM ^
Is anybody else annoyed that UF is ahead of us in the polls? Both teams have 2 losses, and both teams losses are against top 15 teams.
UF beat Auburn at home, Auburn is ranked 1 spot behind Notre Dame. Our 2nd best win is against number 19 Iowa. UFs 2nd best win? That ugly ass opening week game again Miami, who is 6-4.
Also their only game remaining is against FSU, so they will probably finish 10-2
November 17th, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^
When everyone beats everyone else up in the Big Ten, we all end up in the 12-18 range
When everyone beats everyone else up in the SEC, they all end up in the 5-10 range