Warm, fuzzy offensive stats heading into the cold PSU night game
We are so going to lose by double digits in Happy Valley. (The line has moved to +9 BTW.)
But, these stats may give you warm fuzzy feelings about the potential of the offense before kickoff:
- The Illinois game was Michigan's best offensive road performance since 2016 @ Rutgers (78-0). Michigan gained 6.99 yards per play and scored 42 points. (The nearest since then was a road Rutgers game last year. Illinois is bad, but not fire Chris Ash at Rutgers bad.)
- Michigan's offense did about a half yard per play better against Iowa than PSU's offense the next week. Granted, that was home vs. away. (Our defense also did better in ypp.)
- Michigan's offense has 3 passes over 50 yards already this year. They had 4 of those passes all last year.
- Not a stat, but it seems Iowa's offense mainly struggled against PSU due to the interior DL. Our interior OL should hold up better.
- The offense is averaging almost one less penalty per game than last year and that stat seems to progress throughout the year for past teams.
Back to reality, the biggest stat is that we can't beat a top team on the road in the Harbaugh era. So, yeah. Not expecting much.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
I think you throw the stats out for this Michigan team. Looking at them play you can see it's just not working for whatever reason(s).
October 15th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
"Our interior OL should hold up better."
The word "should" is doing a lot of work there.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Come on. Of all the criticisms that could be leveled at the offense, you think Bredeson, Ruiz, and Onwenu aren't better than the sieves Iowa is putting out there?
October 15th, 2019 at 11:02 AM ^
PSU is second in the country in sacks with 27; only OSU has more with 28. PSU is third in the country in rushing yds allowed per game with 53; we're allowing more than double that with 122.
Is our OL better than Iowa's? It sure was in our game with the Hawkeyes. We're giving up a sack every 16 pass attempts, while Iowa is giving up a sack every 13, so we're better in that respect, to whatever extent sacks reflect the quality of an OL. We ran the ball better against Iowa than they did against us—133 yds vs 67 (not including sack yardage) but for the entire season our running game is virtually identical to Iowa's in yds per carry and yards per game: we're both currently at 4.1/carry and 156 yds/game.
The source of my skepticism is the venue—if the game was in A2, I'd be more inclined to give our OL the benefit of the doubt against one of the better front 7's in the country. Based on recent experience against good teams on the road? At night? No.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
PSU sacks:
Idaho - 0
Buffalo - 3
Pitt - 3
Maryland - 4
Purdue - 10
Iowa - 2
Until last Saturday PSU really hadn't played anybody, they padded their stats against Purdue (Why couldn't we play Purdue this year!). Against a team with a pulse they had 2 sacks and 0 against Idaho???
EDIT: Buffalo put up 184 rushing yards and 245 receiving yards on the PSU defense. Yes, Buffalo.
October 15th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Yeah, I've seen this stat thrown around about PSU's front 4 and it is mostly based on them pantsing an overmatched Purdue team down Sindelar and Moore.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:20 PM ^
I believe you are supposed to nuthug the Nittany Lions vaunted defense.
You know we can't have nice things.
October 15th, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
PSU has played 3 teams that are offensively worse than Rutgers this year (per SP+). They also played the injury ridden shell of Purdue. I'm not guaranteeing we'll do well, given our own offensive struggles, but their stats are extremely misleading.
October 17th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
Michigan played Wisconsin and Army so...
October 15th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
Ruiz this year is a real WTF, so yeah I could see someone making that argument.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
After watching the Iowa-PSU game, I can honestly say their QB looks average but can move. Have McGrone watch him like a hawk all game and bring the heat. Limit the turnovers and get 1 or 2 of our own and we have a shot. Just being cautiously optimistic on this one.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
Nothing in the last XX years of watching Michigan football gives me confidence that we will implement a strategy to mitigate the effectiveness of even a moderately mobile QB.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
He doesn't have the break away speed that those other QB's did though.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
Neither did haskins, but all he had to do was complete a crossing route to skull fuck our defense.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
They’ve actually been pretty good at stopping mobile QBs since brown came. Problem has been accurate pocket passers hitting crossing routes/slot fades. Haskins wasn’t mobile last year or when he came in for JT and beat them in 17. Indiana last year didn’t have s mobile QB last year either. Wisconsin also hasn’t had a mobile QB when they’ve beaten UM.
He can be criticized but Brown was brought in to stop mobile QBs and he’s done that.
October 15th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Yes, selection bias works heavily into the "Michigan never stops a mobile QB" thinking.
It was very unfortunate that JT Barrett got injured twice against us (2014 and 2017). Both games were very winnable when he was in there.
October 15th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
I agree with this. Also, why can't Patterson run at least 6-10 times per game? I see many top tier QB's at other programs (Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida etc) running their QB's with the same injury risk as Michigan's QB. I still say that is a coaching decision. There have been too many times the end crashes down and the QB has a wide open edge only to hand off. Some of the those reads are so obvious it must be a coaches decision.
October 17th, 2019 at 2:29 AM ^
Hurts and Tua have wheels and Florida is running 6’5 235 Emory Jones in their zone read packages.
patterson is a garbage read option QB. He doesn’t make good reads and he has no ability to sell a fake to the RB by riding the mesh point. DEs know he isn’t pulling it out last second, if he is running he makes a weak fake and the DE won’t crash.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
Fuck james franklin. We got this!
October 15th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
Some responses to each of your points:
- The Illinois game was Michigan's best offensive road performance since 2016 @ Rutgers (78-0). Michigan gained 6.99 yards per play and scored 42 points. (The nearest since then was a road Rutgers game last year. Illinois is bad, but not fire Chris Ash at Rutgers bad.)
ILLINOIS IS REALLY BAD AT FOOTBALL. THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CORRELATION BETWEEN RESULTS AGAINST COMPLETE TIRE FIRE TEAMS AND RESULTS AGAINST TALENTED TEAMS. WE HAVE PROVEN OVER THE PAST 4-5 YEARS TO BE REALLY GOOD AT PLAYING AGAINST REALLY BAD TEAMS AND THEN STRUGGLING MIGHTILY AGAINST GOOD TEAMS (ESPECIALLY ON THE ROAD)
- Michigan's offense did about a half yard per play better against Iowa than PSU's offense the next week. Granted, that was home vs. away. (Our defense also did better in ypp.)
YOU ARE NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDIT TO IOWA ROAD VS. IOWA KINNICK AT NIGHT. THAT'S WORTH AT LEAST A HALF A YARD.
- Michigan's offense has 3 passes over 50 yards already this year. They had 4 of those passes all last year.
I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER, BUT WHO ARE THOSE 50 YARD PASSES AGAINST. I KNOW THAT ONE WAS BELL LAST WEEK, BUT IF THE OTHERS WERE ALL AGAINST CRAP COMPETITION, DON'T PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN THIS
- Not a stat, but it seems Iowa's offense mainly struggled against PSU due to the interior DL. Our interior OL should hold up better.
NOT NECESSARILY DISAGREEING, BUT RUIZ HAS BEEN A MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT THIS YEAR AND OUR INTERIOR OL AS A WHOLE HAS NOT LOOKED GREAT AT ALL.
- The offense is averaging almost one less penalty per game than last year and that stat seems to progress throughout the year for past teams.
YES, AGREE - THIS HAS BEEN A POSITIVE. OF COURSE THE OFFENSE IS ALSO AVERAGING MANY MORE TURNOVERS PER GAME THAN LAST YEAR, SO THERE IS THAT.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
I know everyone is down on the team, but I’m pretty even on this game. Penn state should be favored, but they aren’t a juggernaut. If Michigan plays a turnover free game or at least stays even I think they will be in the game going into the fourth quarter. From there, go blue!
October 15th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
I like our chances if we score first and have two fewer turnovers than PSU.
Anyone look up the last time we had a come from behind win against a ranked team? It feels like 2015 since that happened.
October 15th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Look no further than last year vs Northwestern.
October 15th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
NW was ranked at the time. my bad.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
I'm actually not that down on this game. I have this as a toss-up. I was merely giving counter-points to some of the warm and fuzzy state. If we win, I don't necessarily think that it will be because of the stats presented in the OP. It will be because we will finally allow Shea to consistently keep on the reads, because without swirling wind, Shea will regain his former accuracy, and because we will finally come out for a big game with some energy and a coherent game plan.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
ah yes, just what this fanbase needs - counterpoints to warm and fuzzy points.
October 15th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Because actual discussion and context is a bad thing? Better to just list a bunch of cherry-picked stats that really don't make the case that the OP was presenting?
Look, I don't necessarily think that things are all gloom and doom - we have a real shot to win this game. But, the stats listed by the OP don't really make the case.
October 17th, 2019 at 6:39 PM ^
True. Shea is very accurate throwing on the run and it drives me crazy when play calls called are for him to sit in the pocket for 4-5seconds waiting for the play to develop while all year the oline has been shaky & Rb’s have whiffed in pass pro. No wonder Shea has no confidence this year. At the very least, all plays designed to change Shea’s trajectory in the pocket so the dline won’t key in on where he sets to throw every play. Whenever teams like OU have shaky oline performances they always change the qb trajectory and get him out of the pocket and OU is very good at this hence the success their offense puts up every year. It’s like our coaches no longer coach with common sense. Idk .. sorry had to vent there. I just hope for the sake of the program that we don’t get pummeled in happy predator valley. We’ve been disappointed enough, too many have taken shots at Michigan, so please let it be at least a closer game than expected?
Go Blue
October 15th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Penn State has looked pretty assy in their games against real opponents. They'll definitely have a good defense, but I'm not sure we can say too much about their offense at this point. I would feel pretty good about this game if it was at home. Because it's a night game in Happy Valley, I'm feeling a loss in a really ugly slog.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Well, one of those 50+ yard passes was a 68-yard catch-and-run to Ronnie Bell in Madison in the first quarter.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
Another was a 51 yard reception by Nico Collins vs Iowa.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
And another was the 71 yard catch-and-run this week. We're not throwing deep so much as Eubanks is blocking, and Ronnie is getting loose. Our lack of balls that get thrown at least 20 yards in the air is criminal negligence.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
These are good stats. Objective information always has value. I know this information won’t get anyone out of the BPONE, but for the few, naive hangers on, like myself, it is life blood...
October 15th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
I don't think you are naïve, it is just that any positive stats are immediately countered by just thinking about Michigan's play on the road, particularly at night, under Harbaugh. I will note that there are a few "intangibles" that I think kind of give this game a bit of a different dynamic that may favor Michigan. I like that the ND game is right after it, because it kind of prevents Michigan from really focusing too much on the conference race and kind of just makes this a "standalone" football game for Michigan. I also think that Michigan facing a bit of adversity against Illinois on the road before this game and responding well will serve their confidence well. It is also worth noting that in 2017, which is in fact going into the calculus of most fans entering this game, Penn State was super loaded with Barkley, two or three game breaking receivers and huge tight ends, and Joe Moorhead. There is no question this Penn State team is good but this is not that.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
We're playing an away game, against a higher ranked team, at night... fear level =
October 15th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
How is that the face of fear? It looks Bruce is about to kick out a guy's Adam's apple.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
It looks Bruce is about to kick out a guy's Adam's apple.
It looks like Bruce just zipped his nut sack.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
This staff has given us no reason to believe we can win this game, any belief that we will is just a huge leap of faith.
A leap that I am definitely going to be taking by 7:30 on Saturday.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
Let's just hope this goes better than the last time in Happy Valley. I foresee us having issues containing Clifford on QB runs and Hamler giving us fits.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I don't foresee either of those potential issues. Clifford isn't all that, but he'll get some yards - that's inevitable. But he won't get soul-crushing yards whenever he needs them. And Hamler was a non-factor the previous two games because Hill has covered him like a blanket since their high school days. And Ambry was involved in that high school coverage, too. Also, he's their only weapon that's a real threat in the open field.
Again, I think the defense will play well enough. My only question is which offense will show up, and for how long.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
I see PSU winning this game by using tempo to freak our defense out. For some reason they cannot process info without going through all of their presnap rituals. It is like they never played football before and the calls coming in are in Chinese. Combine this with the crowd noise of a white out night game and it will be difficult.
When Harbaugh was asked by Jon Jansen on the podcast, "How do you create that environment and get them ready to play in that environment?" Harbaugh responded, "Guys that are playing in it for the first time really just have to experience it. But you still tell them...The environment has actually very little to do with the play (of the players)." "Lock in with a laser focus and do your job is the best advice I can give."
Is this what Harbaugh believes or is this just coach speak to not give a nod to PSU fans and their enthusiasm? As I put in another post last week, players say that it is so loud that you cannot talk normally while standing next to each other. When you add noise, tempo and the lack of preparation for it we are in for an uphill battle.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
So instead of dumbass penalties, we have replaced them with dumbass fumbles. Great!
October 15th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
We probably average less penalties on offense as we have likely run far less plays than last year.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
Fewer.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Michigan wins with Gattis uncorking the offensive game plan and calls of a lifetime. Shea runs for 100 and passes for 200 and 3TDs - one each to DPJ, Collins and Black. Charbonnet adds another 100 yards and 2 TDS while Haskins puts up 50 yards on 4 carries and 1 TD. That's 6 TDS, people! On the other side of the ball Brown coaches his ass off holding PSU to 80 yards rushing and 1 TD, 3 interceptions and 6 sacks. A new era is born and Michigan rallies into the playoffs and wins the national championship.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
I'll have whatever you're smoking/snorting.
October 16th, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
please pass to me next
October 15th, 2019 at 8:42 PM ^
God Bless, I like your spirit. Miracles happen, maybe some day to us.
October 15th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
Nearly a 10 point road dog to a ranked team, with Harbaugh as our coach? Its going to be a loss my man. Might as well accept it.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
Curious what the point of your post was? You have been here for 8 years and accumulated quite a few points so I will assume you are a real fan of the team.
Do losses hurt less when you act like you hate the team and don't care?
Do you feel better if we lose to say you were right?
Do you like shitting on people that have a positive outlook to make them feel like you do?
I just don't understand what is going on with this fanbase.
Why is being optimistic and having hope a bad thing? We follow this team for 365 days and for the better part of the last 5 years they have generally been successful and in fact have a 3-1 record vs Franklin. Tough game. If your not looking forward to games like this I don't understand how you can follow this team. You only get 4-5 games a year that generate any juice. I can't understand dreading it every day.