Warde's process: an explanatory note to rookie tea leaf readers

Submitted by tah15 on January 4th, 2021 at 3:25 PM

 

Phase 1 ~ Warde Manuel midseason (sometime after Harbaugh's MSU choke job):

  • Option 1 -- Extend Harbaugh
  • Option 2 -- Move on from Harbaugh 

Phase 2 ~ Warde thinks... immediately selects Option 2, and moves forward with:

  • Option 1 -- Fire Harbaugh now and pay $10 million buyout plus $6+ million of final season 
    • AND not be able to hire a new coach until January when bowl season is over
      • In the meantime, fanbase revolts: "Why don't we have a new coach yet, grrrr?" (Hint: Matt Campbell is still coaching you dumbasses)
    • AND lose a good chunk of the current recruiting class.
    • AND piss off and humiliate a former player/legend that many fans still support. 

 

  • Option 2 -- Chat with your friend, Jim; come to the same page about desire to part ways.
    • Buy time and say you're waiting for your end of year talk with Harbaugh on December 16th. Then, formally offer and leak news of contract extension with lower salary BUT with performance incentives.
      • Endure minor fanbase grumbles like, "What's taking so long?",
        "Aren't we losing recruits", etc
      • Gives Harbaugh minimum leverage he needs to negotiate with NFL.
      • Allows Harbaugh to finish up with recruiting class and at the same time lets him be honest about his "commitment" to Michigan when talking to recruits (after all, he can't receive a formal NFL offer until January 4th at the earliest so he'd be telling the truth).
        • (Of note: Donovan Edwards gives interview in which he's asked about interacting with Harbaugh. Edwards chuckles and shakes head. Says nothing more. Clearly, Harbaugh is not the thing that's sold him on Michigan.) 
    • If/when NFL offers Harbaugh, you save the University his buyout and his final contract year. 
      • Fanbase doesn't grumble about how you handled the situation or how we're Texas now or something. 
    • Matt Campbell and Luke Fickell can finish out their bowl season in relative peace. Both are free to consider offer as soon as Harbaugh gets NFL job. 

Phase 3 ~ Warde thinks again... immediately selects Option 2 again, and moves forward with: 

  • Press conference thanking Jim Harbaugh, the former player/legend, for his fine coaching job at Michigan.
  • Keeps friend. Saves Michigan millions of dollars. Gets a fresh, younger coach. Preserves top ten recruiting class. Fanbase is mostly okay to positively delighted with it all, but still thinking you almost botched it. 
  • Sips whiskey; chuckles to self. 

 

Brainstorm93

January 4th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^

For argument's sake, let's say we hire Matt Campbell. By what year is he supposed to win the National Championship? Harbaugh was supposed to do it in Year 2 or 3. How many would Campbell get?

bluesparkhitsy…

January 4th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^

I'm going to go out a limb here and suggest that our fanbase is *more* patient than most.  Until this year -- even with Harbaugh's 0-5 record against Michigan's biggest rival, lack of championships, lack of big road wins, and with the general sense of malaise surrounding the program -- most Michigan fans supported Harbaugh receiving an extension on his contract.  That would not have been true at OSU, Texas, or many other schools, all else being equal.  It was only after we were well into this season that most Michigan fans began to support non-extending Harbaugh.

Sure, there are plenty of bad takes out there, but Michigan fans support Michigan, and I think most would roll out the welcome mat (and keep it out for a while) for a qualified, new coach.

bronxblue

January 4th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^

Oh, the amount of shitting on current and former players based on their effort and how Campbell would need to import "his" guys would be unbearable.

Michigan winning a title relies on a ton of things beyond any coach's power, and so there isn't any real timeline you could predict.  I mean, if OSU and Alabama crumbled under NCAA sanctions following next week's game I'd say the time is a year or two.  But barring that, I don't know if Campbell or anyone else can legitimately coach Michigan into a title contender.

Erik_in_Dayton

January 4th, 2021 at 3:46 PM ^

Nick Saban would not win a national title in two years at Michigan. I don't say that to knock our players, but they simply aren't the collection of early round draft picks that Alabama, Clemson, and OSU are. I hope people are willing to be at least somewhat reasonable if Campbell or whoever else comes on board.

ERdocLSA2004

January 4th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^

We hired Harbaugh, a guy that turned Stanford into a football power, developed Luck into an NFL qb, transformed SF into a super bowl contender.  Our expectations were extremely high, understandably.  From my standpoint, Matt Campbell doesn’t need to win a NC in 6 years, but I think he needs to challenge OSU by year 3, win a BIG in year 5 and be in the playoff conversation by year 5.  Oh, and dominate MSU every single year.  Those would be my expectations.  

Montana41GoBlue

January 4th, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^

With a 5 yr deal, the expectation would be the same as it was for JH.  At min. one victory over OSU, and min. one B1G Championship.  The CFP appearance would take care of itself if you do that.  

If Jim was honest with himself and the fanbase he would admit he didn't get the job done and didn't deserve retention/extension. 

snarling wolverine

January 4th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^

 Harbaugh was supposed to do it in Year 2 or 3. 

Let's be clear: no one was expecting our 5-7 2014 team, which lost to Rutgers and Maryland, to be a couple of years away from a national title.  

Harbaugh overperformed expectations in year one and that caused them to go sky-high.  Problem is, he's been unable to improve upon that performance.

Wendyk5

January 4th, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^

I don't expect a national championship. But I do expect a coach to be able to recruit and coach a really good quarterback at this level. That seems to be the one position that is a question mark every year, and one that the team has to have to be successful at the level of an Ohio State. And yeah, I know that Ohio State, and Alabama for that matter, don't put out a lot of NFL QB's. That's not the point; the point is that their qb's make their teams better, even if they're not Heisman candidates. There should be no weekly griping about the quarterback position anymore. 

MDwolverine

January 4th, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^

I don’t recall a lot of people saying Harbaugh needed to win a championship in 2-3 years. Maybe be trending towards competing for one but most people recognized there was a lot to rebuild. The issue, at least in my opinion, is that trend peaked in year 2 and doesn’t show any signs of being able to regain momentum.

Hail to the Vi…

January 4th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^

Depends on what faction of the fan base you ask. The ones that think Michigan should go undefeated and beat Ohio State every season or the head coach is a total failure will probably say by year 2.

Realistically, if Matt Campbell or whoever the next coach would be in this hypothetical-for-now scenario we're to have them competing for championships by the time the players from their first recruiting cycle have exhausted their eligibility, so 4-5 years.

Michigan is not a complete rebuild, but does require some cultural changes, time to absorb their new playbook and adapt to the new philosophy of the program. I think by the end of year 3, you will have your answer as to whether or not the program is headed in the right direction. 

lawlright

January 4th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^

The expectations would just to field a competent team in all aspects. 

An offense that has some sort of identity. 

A defense that doesn't break down 10/10 times to simple concepts taught in HS football. 

And for God sakes a team with desire, enthusiasm, and a collective team that gives it their all on every play.

OSU, Bama, Clemson are professional football teams under the guise of an educational institution - Michigan will never be this. The best Michigan can do is somewhere in that of the Notre Dame levels - make the playoffs once or twice a decade and be reminded that they are an educational institution and not a football program as they get stomped out. 

So national championships? Be real, not happening. How about just a competent program year after year? That's the best Michigan is going to do. 

tah15

January 4th, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^

Then I think the extension he offered would not have been for a lower, incentive-laden salary (as rumored), but rather for the same one, and it would have gotten done long prior to the Dec. 16 timeframe. I think we all assumed too readily that an extension was the most likely scenario (in spite of the MSU debacle) and we were scratching our heads as to what was taking so long. When Warde mentioned the "we'll talk after the season" stuff, that's when it seemed like option 2 was more likely. Of course, Harbaugh himself may have said, "I'd like to test the NFL waters this time, but let's play it this way to finish out the recruiting class and buy all of us time." Most assume Warde has been incompetent. If things play out the way I've laid out, and so far it has, he may be a pretty smooth operator. 

mlax27

January 4th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^

It's a plausible explanation.  Some other explanations:

-Harbaugh is using the NFL as leverage.  

-Harbaugh's salary is too high for his performance, so Warde is negotiating a lower salary to match his performance.  He can earn more if his performance improves.  Negotiations take time.

-It might be very difficult to sell a large contract like this during COVID to university leadership while you are laying off other staff.  There could legitimately be a lot of red tape to get through.    

snarling wolverine

January 4th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^

Where does firing Don Brown fit into this narrative?  

If Manuel wants to let Harbaugh go, there logically would not be any assistants getting fired, as it would be up to the next coach to decide that.

The most logical conclusion is that Manuel chose Option 1 but there is something happening preventing the two from agreeing, whether it is contract terms, NFL interest, or something else.

ERdocLSA2004

January 4th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^

Warde is putting us in the tight spot.  Harbaugh is trying to identify the best option for him.  He’s dragging his feet and I don’t blame him for looking out for old number 1.  Warde can easily end this situation by having an expiration on the extension, followed by firing Harbaugh the next day.  Warde has all the control, he just chooses to leave it all up to Harbaugh.