Vegas odds shifting towards Alabama for the 4th playoff spot

Submitted by Blue in Paradise on December 3rd, 2023 at 11:40 AM

As others have posted earlier, Florida State has been the heavy favorite for the final spot in the CFP with odds of -350 to -400 vs +125 for Bama (Georgia was and remains a long shot) on FanDuel and DraftKings.

In the last couple of hours, the odds are shifting towards Bama.  FSU is now approx -160 and Bama is now approx -115 and they are tweaking by the minute.

Have to think that either the sites or folks putting money down are getting fed some info from someone for it to move that much.

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MGlobules

December 3rd, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^

I thought there might be some hope in the fact that FSU has a huge viewership, too. But maybe the SEC overall has a bigger one than the ACC's. There is no justice in this world, but I would be sad for FSU; their strong defensive showing last night felt like a statement that they could be competitive in a championship series game.

This also sets up the prospect that a number one Michigan faces a number four AL in the opener.

 

Joined: 11/17/2008

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BlueMk1690

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^

I used to be friends with a guy working for one of the major betting firms. From what he explained, humans don't make these calls anymore. It's all algorithms based solely on the best possible financial outcomes for the bookmaker.

After FOX and ESPN proclaimed Bama as essentially in last night, watched by millions of people, there would have been a huge rush toward Bama in the action. The computers would have by default had to move the odds Bama's way to protect the company's financials (remember the worst nightmare for a bookie is a popular winning bet on an underdog).

This just means Vegas 'knows' what we all know - the national media is pushing for Bama hard. And the media usually gets what it wants.

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Mike Damone

December 3rd, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^

Vegas/betting now just moving odds based on $, and if they are doing it right, are putting in plenty of cushion to hedge themselves either way to make money.  Otherwise, how can both be favorites to make it?

Joined: 09/02/2017

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BlueMk1690

December 3rd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^

After the free Bama campaign ads the FOX and ESPN crews ran last night that's hardly surprising.

Let's be real here - the media has always crowned the college football champions. But that's why it's actually infuriating to see the likes of Johnson and Klatt shit on Michigan for no good reason in the last minutes of that game last night. You're the Big Ten broadcasters..you should be singing hagiographic odes to your conference champions, not downplaying them while singing the praises of the SEC.

The 12 team playoff will not reduce the impact of this at all unfortunately because there will be a ton of pressure to have at least four SEC teams in it on a yearly basis.

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NotADuck

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^

I actually prefer Michigan playing Bama in the first round just so nobody can say Michigan got an easy road to the Championship.  I can hear Old Pete now, "Congratulations to Michigan.  They're very lucky not to have to play an SEC team on the way to their National Championship.  Well done."  Definitely don't want to listen to that.  Bleh.

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NateVolk

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^

Would feel bad for FSU. 

But also point out, they knew this was possible as the season was closing. Last night with a chance for important style points, they needed a bad quarterback decision by Louisville to hold on. The Louisville that lost to Pitt. 

Knowing they needed something convincing on the big stage, they gave the world drama against a decent to middling team. 

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MacaroniParty

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^

4 best teams is a stupid argument because if record doesn't matter then we all know Washington isn't one of the 4 best. Might as well kick them out for Georgia or Ohio. 

Joined: 07/28/2012

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CompleteLunacy

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^

If your name is Bama or Ohio State, the powers that be will bend over backwards to make sure typical logic doesn’t apply to you negatively. 
 

This year is top heavy but the final 4 *should* be straightforward. And yet, Gid forbid the SEC is the conference locked out, so we gotta bend logic to make sure that don’t happen. It’s “FSU is on their 3rd string QB, thus not one of the best”…yet when it’s OSU they don’t care. They hold Louisville - a good offense - to a season low 6 points yet it’s apparently not enough. You must appease the “eye test” gods or else Bama gets in. 

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MacaroniParty

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

I don't think you have to bend logic to understand that whoever wins the SEC is probably the best team in the country and will win the CFB playoffs. We have nearly 20 years of evidence showing this to be true. 

Texas needs booted. If they can ignore records then they can choose to ignore OOC games. They can ignore whatever they want. Texas wants to be in the SEC so congratulations. This is your first taste of being a also ran to Bama. They should get used to it.

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swalburn

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^

No matter what happens it is a cluster****.  I think Alabama is clearly better but FSU is undefeated and an undefeated conference champ doesn't get left out.  They even beat LSU in non-league portion of their schedule.  I looked at ESPN power rankings and 12 of the top 13 are from the future SEC/Big 10.  Times they are a changing.   

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dosleches

December 3rd, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^

Incredible Bama can lose at home by 10 to Texas and then make it in to the playoff.

By the same logic, OSU should be ranked 2 or 3, given their only loss was by 6 in an away game to the #1 team in all the land. SEC bias is crazy.

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