Vegas Now Favors Harbaugh Staying...

Submitted by bluesong on January 18th, 2024 at 12:37 PM

Must have flipped recently... I'm so confused...

Odds for Harbaugh's team in 2024 at BetMGM:

+175 @UMichFootball
+225 Chargers
+600 Falcons
+700 Raiders
+1000 Bears
+1400 Titans
+1400 Any other NFL or NCAA team

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mGrowOld

January 18th, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^

Not to rain on the OP's and all the happy upvoters parade but the thread title is very misleading.  Nothing has changed, the OP looked at the odds published from a different book than the one posted earlier.

 And I searched both sites to see if I could place a bet and what the max bet allowed would be (prop bets such as these usually have VERY low limits - like around $50) and could find nothing.  This is also fairly common, they publish the "odds" on a coaching vacancy (thereby generating a lot of free publicity and site traffic) but dont actually provide an avenue to place a bet.

One more thing to note.  Anyone looking at "odds" on their ap from a state that doesnt allow remote betting gets a very different view than those of us in states where you can.  

Joined: 10/04/2010

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Newton Gimmick

January 18th, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^

Link?  Screenshot?  Unable to find these odds on BetMGM.  

Also, while your list would imply that Michigan is the single most likely place Harbaugh would coach next year, +175 odds implies that (vig removed) there is about a 35% chance he returns to Michigan -- so they don't favor him staying (at +175 or any "plus" odds).

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snarling wolverine

January 18th, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^

Or maybe it's just that he had to live through two suspensions this past season and had his reputation thrown in the mud over some trivial bullshit, and now the school he delivered a national championship to is acting petty as hell, insisting on having the right to fire him over NCAA issues when we would never dare do such a thing in reality.

The message we're sending Jim is "We love you, but we don't have your back."   

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mackbru

January 18th, 2024 at 2:12 PM ^

This is such a lazy take. It's pretty obvious that Harbaugh is just buying time and coming up with manufactrured reasons to not sign a very generous contract offer that has been there for weeks or more. Some of his demands are simply nonstarters for any university, and he knows it. No school is gonna give an employee a guarantee that he can't be fired for cause. The precedent would be devastating. Think critically.

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JHumich

January 18th, 2024 at 2:26 PM ^

Nah, he's just looking to be desired and supported.

Nothing that he has said has changed.

It's just takes like yours (which mirrors so many talking heads that I actually get it), that apply most people's mindset to conjecturing about his actions, instead of just taking your interpretations from things he's actually said, and people who actually know him and actually talk to him himself have said.

Vegas have skin in the game and know what they're doing, usually. That's why people watch the lines. 

You're not wrong about things from the school's perspective. That's what's sad. He wants to know that they love him enough to do these things anyway, and they either can't or won't.

But Acker probably speaks for more than just himself, when he says that they're not about to try to have this conversation in the media/social-media.

We just have to wait and hope that he doesn't "get the love" from one of the NFL camps. Today, it looks like he won't. And that's a good thing for us.

I suspect the players (and hopefully key recruits) are being talked to directly by Harbaugh. And, what is going on inside Schembeckler Hall is much more important than what's going on at MGo Board.

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NRK

January 18th, 2024 at 8:37 PM ^

According to the reports it was not an exclusion from for cause firing, it was a contractual requirement that it happen with a  panel. 
 

And reading between the lines it’s likely tied to NCAA rules not other egregious conduct, though of course we haven’t seen the language. I’d be surprised if Harbaugh is trying to do anything more than protect himself from NCAA repercussions. I’m speculating but given his personality I suspect other for cause terms (murder, sexual asssuslt, etc) are not a problem for him, and this is all NCAA driven, so there may be carve outs. 

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Newton Gimmick

January 18th, 2024 at 2:55 PM ^

I also could not find odds at BetMGM.  Draftkings still has the Chargers as -250, i.e. (vig removed) about a 70% chance he'll take that job.

Anyhow, +175 that he'll stay at Michigan does not mean the books favor Harbaugh staying, as +175 translates to about a (vig removed) 35% chance he returns to Michigan.  Again, even if those odds are actually available anywhere 

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Newton Gimmick

January 18th, 2024 at 3:51 PM ^

Thanks.  Still can't find it at MGM itself, though it may be available in some non-Michigan states (which would be strange, but possible).  If you can get +225 for the Chargers, I'd personally bet it.

But I'd also bet that the screenshot is at the very least outdated, as the Bears are supposedly keeping their coach.  

 

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Chaco

January 18th, 2024 at 1:26 PM ^

Very true - “Larks Tongues in Aspic” and “Starless and Bible Black” and “Red” are all pretty compelling albums 

same w Steve Howe - spent the 70s creating one of the most impressive discography’s of any guitarist and then spent the 80s trading it in.  Then he started to resemble Gollum - scientists are unsure if there is a correlation but have their suspicions.

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True Blue Grit

January 18th, 2024 at 2:20 PM ^

I have a lot of doubts about the "Harbaugh would prefer to stay if he gets the immunity contract clause" theory.  I've come to believe that's more of a ploy by his agent to buy time with Michigan while the NFL job pursuit plays itself out.  He knows Michigan won't give him that, so he has a "reasonable" reason for not signing now.  I believe the NFL is where he really wants to coach right now.

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daveheal

January 18th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^

i could tell brian was a bit annoyed by the people who are like "i'd rather he just leave if he's gonna do this every year" but that's how i feel. harbaugh brought me the greatest years in my michigan fandom (probably true for most of us) but if he truly wants to be back in the NFL, as he seems to, i'd rather he just rip off the band-aid after the national championship, which probably gives us the best chance to move forward with some year-over-year stability.

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Buy Bushwood

January 18th, 2024 at 12:43 PM ^

What says he "truly wants to be back in the NFL".  I don't feel that way.  He has plenty of opportunity.  But he's given 9 years to UM.  He clearly loves being in Ann Arbor.  What is also clear, is that he's somewhat torn, because a failed pass interference call led to him coming up short against his brother in the Super Bowl, and it clearly itches at him.  That something like that remains a goal for him is one of his strengths.  

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BananaRepublic

January 18th, 2024 at 2:26 PM ^

I think he might leave if he finds a very particular type of situation in the NFL but it's also very clear that he loves it at Michigan. He's conflicted; it's not that hard to understand and people who think he just would rather be in the NFL don't seem to understand that. If he just wanted to be in the NFL, he would have left by now. 

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