Vegas is a believer in Josh Gattis
Michigan the early favorite in every game this year.
GRAVY!!
This has nothing to do with Vegas believing in Gattis. What it does mean is a lot of money out there will bet Michigan despite ridiculous point spreads. It means a lot of fans (otherwise known as uninformed betters) believe in Gattis.
Does anyone out there think the spread the day before the O$U game will be Michigan -6.5? Or Notre Dame at -8.5??
Every time this argument...
If it were an artificial line to lure Michigan fans, it would be pounded by sharps who'd collectively bet billions against Michigan with these lines.
And this argument dismisses an obvious flaw: aren't OSU fans just as stupid and numerous and money'd as Michigan fans? The answer is no, but where they underachieve in money they more than make up for in stupidity and volume. OSU fans would kill this line, betting on OSU. So sharps + OSU fan stupidity more than outweighs Michigan fan stupidity in any equation. Similar for ND, PSU, MSU, etc.
I think these lines are attention grabbers, and you probably can't bet much on any of them. But the same arguments are made on "true" Vegas lines, and they certainly seem false.
It’s an artificial line to lure equal money being bet on both sides.
Nope, the spread will change. Money has come not in yet. Why, would you bet now
Nd will be Michigan -5.5 and osu will be Michigan -2.5.
I see the future.
Michigan, Duke, Houston, Virginia in final 4.
Actually it does. The argument that the lines are set to bring money on both sides and that they do not reflect the bookmakers' best guess is no longer valid. Talk to bookmakers and they will tell you the same thing. That is, there are no biases in the lines they set. There are too many "rational" bettors with deep pockets for them to try to take advantage of a few loyal fans. Any perceived bias is taken advantage by these sophisticated bettors. There are now even a few hedge funds whose primary investments are sport betting. They are mostly in UK and bet on soccer and horses, but they do show up during NCAA and NFL playoffs. There are many academic and industry research that have shown that there are no longer any biases in sports lines. ND football was famous for having biases -- not anymore. I have done a few of these study for NFL and NCAA FB and the lines show no systematic bias. The only sport that shows some bias is NHL, specially during the playoffs.
March 21st, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
Michigan has a very tough schedule. But they also have 2 byes. Which is going to help them.
But a big factor that no on has pointed out, at least not that I've seen, is Pep Hamilton is gone. He was a drag on the offense. How many times did Michigan have to settle for FGs because of unimaginative play calling when the team got past the 50? If they had gotten a good percentage of TDs in those situations things would have been different. Shea Patterson certainly is an able QB to do it. Pep Hamilton was not an able coach.
Also, Ed Warinner is going to be in his second year. The offensive line may come exploding out of the gate this season. Christian Turner may have a very good year because of it.
No. Simply no.
The only thing Vegas cares about is getting equal money on both sides and collecting on the ratio, the larger the total amount of action the better because they collect a larger ratio by volume.
The model has and still is, let the losers 50% cover the winners 50% and we keep the vig. This has not changed.
If they can't get equal action on both sides, and they almost always do because they set the line, they are fine with collecting on a one-sided bet in their favor but it is not the business model. Vegas is not trying to trick certain fan bases into emotional betting anymore than is necessary to get the magical even cash scenario.
Hedge funds investing in large lots on squirrelly lines like these are not an issue because many early lines have bet limits, especially lines this early in the year. If a manager of a HF tried to lay a $5 million bet on UM at -6.5 this early in the year, Vegas would tell them to fuck off.
These lines are teaser lines designed to get action from the degenerate college football gamblers who are stupid and looking for any long odds bet in the offseason because they are addicts. These are an easy way to get the $500 per game guys to lay some cash flow on the casinos in what is a slow period of the year.
Vegas has a brilliant business model and they will survive the apocalypse because they don't need to win to make money. That is the entire point. They let the idiots on each side pay each other while they collect a fee. It hasn't changed and it never will as long as people are willing to continue to donate to their cause.
March 22nd, 2019 at 10:13 PM ^
You are entirely wrong. You are somehow assuming that there are not enough rational deep pocketed bettors. I have done 3 studies using data provided by casinos and the lines are best predictors of the outcomes. The opening lines do move but in random fashion. By the way, in a market with rational bettors the only way you can guarantee to get equal money on both sides is to set line to be the best predictor of the final score.
Is this the "Robbie Moore" hockey player for Michigan from many years ago?
Isn't this the same site referenced in Brian's Unverified Voracity yesterday? MSU line has come down in this one, but others all look the same. How valid is this site, and are these odds really something you can place a bet on?
I wouldn't give MSU 13 points if I thought they were going to have a bad team. And I think they are going to be pretty good, with a potentially extremely good defense.
UM by 2 TD's.
They are going to probably be anemic on offense again. Unless Lewerke loses the yips. They lose Scott which is a major addition by subtraction. Their D will keep them in games but they had something like 4 or 5 games where they scored one touchdown or less.
I don't think Scott matters, he wasn't a positive or negative for them last season. His numbers were terrible and maybe his attitude was too, but no one was going to run well behind that OL. If they fix the latter, they'll be better, whether Scott left or not.
What will matter is they lost Felton Davis. No exaggeration to say they don't go bowling last year without him, even missing the last 5 games of the regular season. He saved them against Utah State, and nearly single-handedly beat Penn State. Cody White looks like a good player, but everyone's got good players. Davis was a difference maker, and they were anemic even with him on the team.
They are hoping their BIG changes to the coaching staff will kick start their offense lol
A helluva lot of offensive talent on the team but play calling has been anemic under Harbaugh. Bringing in a modern offense might actually bring these sorts of rewards.
Lewwrke might not start, and they lose a few key pieces, but hey, its March.
Vegas is also a believer in home field advantage.
In Michigan's case, you'd be crazy not to.
the last 4 UM/MSU games have been won by the road team. Just read that today and was surprised by it. Last victory in AA was Denard’s 12-10 game in 2012.
Yeah. I realized that. We're on a weird suck/good cycle with MSU, where they suck ass when we play them at home.
This year should preserve the cycle, since I think they will probably be better than terrible. Maybe we finally beat a decent MSU at home.
Iowa, Notre Dame, Michigan St, and Ohio St, all in Ann Arbor. Still tough. Fans need to be the 12th man in all four games.
If only the odds posted 6 months before the season were a guarantee of actual performance. They are not, however, and so this means nothing to me and my fandom...
UM was favored at OSU last year too.
I don't know what you're talking about. We didn't play OSU in 2018.
When is the 2018 team bus slated to arrive in C-bus?
March 20th, 2019 at 10:45 PM ^
November 2020
March 20th, 2019 at 11:17 PM ^
Too soon, bruh. Too fucking soon.
I think Haskins just completed another 6 yard crossing route for a 50+ yard TD....
Vegas knows Michigan fans are suckers for parting ways with their money.
This is dumb. If this tired theory was true why are you not betting big against Michigan’s opening lines? If they are so distorted by a big fan base, wouldn’t it be simple to bet against the Michigan’s, OSU of the world and make an easy living? It’s not. Why won’t this dumb narrative die?
I don't bet.
There is a smart reason for that. It’s not as simple as betting against big fan bases teams.
I never claimed that betting against big fanbase teams was the strategy. I claimed betting against Michigan was a good strategy because they have a huge knack for choking whenever anything is one the line.
No it’s not. If it is true as you say, what would prevent someone to bet on opening lines and making a killing. The sharps who bet enormous sums would absolutely destroy intentionally distorted opening lines in that scenario. You don’t have any idea what you’re talking about.
March 21st, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
I think it's hard for some people to admit Jim Harbaugh is a very good coach. I mean just look at the fantastic job he did at U of SD, and Stanford, and with coaching Andrew Luck---he's never been the same without Harbaugh. And, Jim Harbaugh was one fumbled punt away from getting a previously bad 49er team into the Super Bowl in his first year there. The 49ers have been bad since he left. I will continue to think that 3 things have changed the progress he was making here at Michigan, 1) Jedd Fisch left, 2) He mistakenly thou Greg Frey was a great coach, 3) same with Pep Hamilton.
I'm hoping Josh Gattis was better vetted before he was hired. Dan Enos, Ed Warinner, and Jim McElwain were.
No, it's not. But I'll give you the chance to explain your self.
Agreed.
Jim Harbaugh is a bad coach?
Simplistic, lazy, and inaccurate statement.
A lot can happen but UW is replacing their QB and doesn’t seem to be as daunting as UW of the past. ND is gonna be replacing a ton of production, Sparty is sparty and Frames is still coaching PSU. Could we win all those games? Absolutely. Should we ever be favored over OSU regardless of placed bets and coaching turnover and their entire starting lineup being replaced the day before the game? Absolutely not. Win and we will talk about letting us be the favorite next year, Vegas.
And we're replacing our best DL players, our best LB, and our best DB and 3rd DB.
March 20th, 2019 at 11:11 PM ^
PSU could be downright bad. They're losing McSorley and Sanders and have three OL transferring while also losing two to early NFL departures. Couple this with the fact that they'll be two years away from Moorhead and we may be looking at a bad offense.
Did you hear Keith Jackson passed?
Oh no!!!!
not only that, the visigoths took rome.
Yeah, but he promised he'd stop in on the way back.