Vaccine Optimism
Since everyone will likely be arguing and rending garments in the other recent threads, I thought I'd post this that I saw today
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
You may need to create or log in to an account to see it, but you likely don't have to pay for it. I don't have too much to say about it because I'm not that knowledgeable about vaccines. However, there are 6 vaccines currently in phase 3, which is large-scale testing. Apparently then government agencies need to look at the results and see if they're satisfactory. They want at least 50% efficacy to be approved. A vaccine is almost surely coming in the near future. Don't ask me what "near" means, again, not an expert. It does say one has been approved but apparently it was made for the Chinese military and it's really only cleared for emergency use in China or something? So we can probably pass on that one. Anyway, I just thought I'd share some promising news.
Spring football or bust.
Spring football is not happening.
even if a vaccine is proven effective by New Year, college students would be last in line to get doses
August 9th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
"Proven" has a much higher threshold with this administration.
When you lie about how many people attended a speech on a tarmac, they will have zero problem lying about the efficacy of any rushed vaccine.
That's horrifying to think about. A fake vaccine a week or so before the election in order to take a fake victory lap.... I have to think that even if there were politically motivated rubber stamps in the CDC/HHS/FDA that there would be some scientific hurdles that would still have to be cleared making something like that impossible.
August 9th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^
College football players have thus far been toward the front of the line for testing. Not sure why the same would not hold true for vaccination.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
Plus the masses demand football, right? These kids owe us!
/s, just in case
August 9th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^
If everyone else got an effective vaccine you wouldn't even need college students to get one. I mentioned spring football but that wasn't really my point. There are reasons things COULD be better in spring.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^
1/3rd of the country won’t get vaccinated at minimum
August 9th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
The difference is, that now becomes their problem.
Then it will become an IQ test.
Reading a bunch of articles today on immunity and t-cells and what they are seeing. From what I’ve read you don’t need everyone to be vaccinated, just enough to create a herd immunity with the factors above. Plenty of articles out there on it.
i suspect it will be a much larger percentage than 33% that will opt out for quite a while. i dont know a single physician, APP, or RN that has any intent of being vaccinated any time in the near future. Reasonable PPE used correctly has shown near zero transmission rate in my area....as a result the potential risk of an unsafe product outweighs the perceived benefit when transmission can be near zero properly utilizing masks, distancing, and hand washing. That being said...most people utilizing masks in the community are not using them properly....a vaccine when safe and effective will be welcome.
FINALLY!
Natural selection.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^
Do you seriously think people who refused to wear a mask will stand in line to get vaccine?
Yes, because it's quick, immediate, and nearly effortless.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
Billions of dollars have been provided to the companies developing CV19 vaccines so that adequate quantities of the vaccines under development will be made available in short order.
To give some perspective, for the '18-'19 flu season we had 170 million doses of influenza vaccine available. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm
August 9th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
I work for one of the companies developing a vaccine. It's in Phase 3 trials in Europe and US. It's my understanding that doses are being made in advance with the expectation that the vaccine will be approved early next year. The goal is to have 1B doses by the end of 2021. I don't think supply will be a major issue......but distribution could be another story.
I know they're working on the distribution aspect too, the US government currently has massive bid out to source hundreds of millions of syringes
August 9th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
This is going to be a major issue. When an effective vaccine is announced, everyone is going to let their guard down and there's going to be huge spike despite the fact that no has gotten the vaccine and it will take many months for everyone to get the vaccine
It probably is. They already are working on mass production,
To vaccinate players you need a few thousand shots which is a pittance.I am not sure why you think they couldn’t or wouldn’t get vaccines to all athletes ASAP when a relative small amount is needed.
What makes me skeptical is that only a handful (I think 7) effective vaccines have been developed over the last four decades.
The vaccine this whole time will be Doritos flavored Mountain Dew.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
My money is on Brawndo.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
If I were in position to do so, I would totally name the vaccine "Brawndo". It is such a fitting name, given circumstances.
I would sign up for this to be an early adopter.
so much hate
Herd immunity is still our best hope. A vaccine of greater than 60% effectiveness, is a long shot, in my opinion. Mask up, wash hands and space out is going to be with us for a long, long while.
August 9th, 2020 at 10:06 AM ^
That’s based on...?
We have plenty of other vaccines that are near 100% effective, why would you think one for COVID would only be 60%?
August 9th, 2020 at 10:37 AM ^
well, from what i hear, flu vaccines are hit or miss; approx 40-50% effective this year. covid, like the flu, is mutating so a new vaccine is needed each year. so getting anywhere close to 100% seems unlikely to me.
for this reason, treatments for covid are every bit, if not more, important.
August 9th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
"covid, like the flu, is mutating so a new vaccine is needed each year."
I haven't read that anywhere. How would we know we need a new vaccine next year before getting one in the first place? Gotta love these armchair virologists. Complaining about the doom and gloomers and then just denying a vaccine is going to help things.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
Influenza has a unique method of mutation by having two distinct rna codes that can reassort amongst each other, making effective vaccination impossible
but this is unique to influenza viruses, so it’s a bad comparison
August 9th, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^
All viruses mutate to survive. They’ve said the coronavirus is mutating much slower because it is effectively spreading itself.
By the same measure, what makes you think treatments will be anymore effective against this theoretically mutating virus?
Not only will we have to rely on vaccine and therapeutics, but we will have to maintain social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing practices for at least the next few years. We need to take all these actions and also hope the virus mutates into something weaker—but we cannot count on this or just one of the above.The sooner a large majority realizes that, the faster we can heel the virus and heal society.
August 9th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Why would you think it would be more effective? There was never any commerical SARS or MERS vaccine, the dengue vaccine isn't even good for people who haven't already had the disease once, the malaria "vaccine" is quite low efficacy, the flu vaccine is famously unreliable, the HIV/AIDS vaccine never materialized, the hepatitis E vaccine isn't even available in our country, and on and on. The real question is why would you think there would be a sars-cov-2 vaccine that's highly effective? There might be, but the evidence doesn't point strongly in either direction.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
You’re a moron, in my opinion
Morons are the ones who resort to name calling.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:23 AM ^
If you still think heard immunity is "our best hope" then you're an idiot and a lost cause
See above.
Attack the person, not the subject at hand, the classic mgogroupthink argument.
herd, not heard
August 9th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
The flu vaccine, which we've been constantly updating for damn near a century now, has an efficacy between 40-60%. From all I've read, C19 doesn't appear to evolve as quickly and the common flu but it's still unlikely a single vaccine, or even a combo, would be much more effective. And even the most optimistic prognostications recognize access to a vaccine won't be generally available for months later.
I have my doubts spring football will happen anyway, and I wouldn't bank of a vaccine demonstrably changing that.
The flu vaccines are far more effective than that. However there are lots of strains of the flu and each year hospitals try to predict which strains will be most prevalent and they provide a vaccine for that/those ones. Anyone who gets a different strain of flu will be less likely to be protected the less their vaccine matches the strain they contract.
That doesnt apply to covid which so far is not mutating much and as far as i know not in ways that would require different vaccines for different mutations.
August 9th, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
Both the Oxford and Moderna vaccines in phase 3 right now are currently being mass produced, and we should have millions of doses ready sometime in the fall after the results come out. Fingers crossed!
August 9th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
Maybe I’m reading too much into your statement but do you actually think the current occupant of the White House is going to get any credit for a coronavirus vaccine? The only people who will give him credit are those who’ve already downed the koolaid...the rest of us know he had nothing to do with it.
August 9th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
Nailed it. If it works he’ll take the credit for himself and his base will shower him with it on their own. F&F will coronate him as the savior that the rest of the world and half this country doesn’t deserve, but one we all need anyway. If it doesn’t work he’ll lash out at his enemies about how it’s all their fault and he’s getting a raw deal from the MSM.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
AND Donald Trump could cure cancer and CNN MNBC NYT WAPO et all and Liberals would find fault.. They are so consumed by hatred.....Point counter point
August 9th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Except he won’t because he’s an idiot like you, but thanks for contributing absolutely nothing meaningful to this discussion.
edit: LMAO thanks for all of the downvotes from your burner accounts, like it somehow makes my post any less true.
The irony of somebody saying nothing except calling him an idiot thanking him for contributing nothing to the conversation.
He is technically right. All the libs I know are proud that the MSM is always all over Trump. If he personally found a cure for cancer the coverage would absolutely be negative. I think that is a good thing. The press should be antagonistic towards the government. They should not be so unabashedly biased.
As pragmatic as that sounds, I have to admit if I knew a democrat was stuck in a burning house I would throw gasoline on it before I would call the firemen.
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.
I heard injecting yourself with bleach works. Can you try it and report back?
This fan base is the worst. MSU has more recent big ten championships than us and osu will continue to kick our ass. Find a new hobby
August 9th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
Are you reading a little bit too much into my statement? Definitely. I wasn’t making any political talking point, I simply want a working vaccine for the sake of humanity.
Do I think the idiot in chief will try and take credit for it while his cult showers him with completely undeserved praise? Yes, I think you’re completely right about that too.
August 9th, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
I guarantee a vaccine will be ready and available by mid-October.
Trust me on that one.