Updated Post; Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
Early in the week, I posted all 32 possibilities based on the CCG outcomes. There are now 16 possibilities. Here are my projected outcomes for each scenario. Biggest controversy is the 1-loss Alabama vs 1-loss Texas debate. I think Alabama unseating 2-time defending national champion with a 29 game win streak should and will outweigh a head to head loss from September. Talk amongst yourselves.
For a Michigan win:
G win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
G win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St
G loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) Georgia
Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes for a Michigan loss anyways:
G win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Texas
G win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Mich
G loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Texas 4) Mich
G loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Georgia
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Are you employed?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
Yes.
You spend 3.5 hours watching Michigan football each week and participate regularly in a Michigan football blog, yet think it's above and beyond to spend 20 minutes on it? You're welcome.
December 2nd, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Nice retort.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
My head went straight to The Big Lebowski as well.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
I’m not and I find your comment hurtful….
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
https://mgoblog.com/diaries/communist-football%27s-rooting-guide-championship-weekend-2023
Pretty good visual in the dairy
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
Top it with a dollop of sour cream.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
That graphic is pretty awesome. A couple outcomes show FSU out even if they beat Louisville. Strongly disagree. CFP was designed to give every undefeated P5 team a shot at the national championship. Arguments about SOS, close wins, injuries only come into play for deciding between 1 or 2 loss teams.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
I agree.I don’t see much likelihood of FSU being jumped if they win today
The smallest chance would be if they won ugly or were super lucky and that was combined super close/OT loss by Georgia. Don’t see how Texas would ever pass an undefeated P5 conf champ but can see the SEC/Georgia hype keeping them in it in the right situation
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
Michigan outcomes (not adjusted for odds of each specfiic scenario):
9/16: Washington in Rose Bowl
2/16: FSU in Rose Bowl
2/16: DNQ
1/16: Alabama in Sugar Bowl
1/16: Georgia in Rose Bowl
1/16: Texas in Rose Bowl
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
What is this, a goddamn Punnett square?
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
Hook ‘‘em Horns , that is all … oh wait FUCK OIHO
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
Nope. The head-to-head (Texas beating Bama by 10 at Tuscaloosa), plus Auburn nearly beating the Tide last week means advantage: Longhorns.
And don't be surprised to see Texas go for "style points" vs Oklahoma State by running up the score in the Big 12 Championship game.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
Could care less who gets in as long as it’s not the hairless nuts … btw you have a lot of faith in the committee not sucking up to the eSECpn
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
Obligatory: How much less?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
I am with OP on this one. I kind of want to see UT pummel osu (ntosu) and then GA win a close but well played game over GA. The committee (and even AP voters previously) always seemed to allow teams to "recover" after and early season loss if they can really show they have recovered. Every week that passes, the head to head result meets less and they playoff committee (and as well as AP voters) always seemed to put stock in the "the team that played in week 3 isn't the same as the one that exists in week 12".
Hell who knows who would happen but I just don't see them beating the team that has been #1 all year (outside of one week) and then not being top 4. I do think it gets interesting if UT beats the crap out of osu.
But even comparing resumes that would mean AL loss would be to a top 5 (assuming UT beats osu) team and Texas loss is to a team that isn't very good. When you look at best wins, GA beating AL would be the best of the year.
as long as osu is out (ytosu) I want chaos.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
Yes, if you have paid attention the entire CFP era, the CFP committee has a fetish for a "good loss." They talk about it all the time. They would almost rather see a good loss versus a regular win.
I don't agree, but they may look at Texas vs Alabama in terms of who had the better loss (Oklahoma for Texas, Texas for Alabama) over who won the head to head.
That puts Texas in a bizzarre circular logic box. They may be deemed not good enough for the CFP . . . because they are so good that Alabama's loss to them is forgivable!
This is how the CFP does whatever the fuck it wants and then makes up some stuff to base it on.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
"This is how the CFP does whatever the fuck it wants and then makes up some stuff to base it on."
Kind of like the big10's suspension of Harbaugh.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
I believe you nailed it here. Texas, knowing that the BIG12 is openly rooting against them, have gone out of their way to pummel teams. Latest example... Texas Tech, which the Commissioner openly campaigned for Tech to send of the 'traitors' with an 'L'...
That obviously didn't go that way...
So given the current rankings, I fully expect Ewers to Worthy 50+ yard bombs, even in the 4th quarter when they are up by 30.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
Kind of odd that UM would still be in the playoffs in four of the eight scenarios where they lose to Iowa but Georgia is only in the playoffs in two of the eight scenarios where they lose to Alabama.
EDIT: Correction UM would still make the playoffs in six of the eight scenarios where they lose to Iowa. Weird.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Michigan would have two top ten wins. Georgia would have -- zero, right?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Michigan ain't making the CFP with a loss. Forget about it.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
They wouldn't deserve it, but they could...
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
If either Texas or FSU lose, who are the 4 that get in ahead of Michigan? Assuming it's not a blowout loss at least, which truly stretches the imagination.
Washington, Texas or FSU w/win, winner of Georgia/Alabama and... 2-loss Texas? No way. Ohio St? No (right?). 1-Loss FSU? No. Loser of Georgia Alabama? Unlikely. A 2nd SEC team with 1-loss vs a 1st B10 team with 1-loss.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
"G win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St"
So let's say this happens, and Michigan and OSU win. Man it would be weird to see THAT team in the Finals. Although it's tough to beat a team twice, a UM victory would be the most epic win in the entire series between UM/OSU, which is saying something.
Edit: I do wonder if Texas still gets in, in this scenario. OSU has the better loss, but Texas would be getting penalized for playing in a championship game. Could go either way I think?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
No thanks. I don't want to see them in the playoff. I'd rather have the next whole year to gloat and right now we will likely have three consecutive playoff appearances whereas they will have 0.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Nah (unfortunately) on Texas getting in with a loss in that scenario. USC got knocked out in the same way last year. Not commenting on what is right, just precedent.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
Ohio making the playoffs wouldn't be bad at all. If Georgia stays at one, they'll give each other a run for their money. I'd love another shot against Ohio in a championship game with Harbaugh finally being able to coach. It's hard to imagine Michigan not playing out of their minds under that set of circumstances.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
i get that, but i want ohio to be tied together with sparty, wandering the football wilderness for 40 yrs. lonely, unloved, cold, hungry, forsaken, hated. being in the CFP again would not be the desert, although in your scenario it would still be a very cool outcome.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to complain if OSU gets left out, but I think we're built to beat them and we would have an advantage in any rematch.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
This may not be a popular opinion, but I would be fine with never playing OSU again. Fuck them. After what transpired the last month and it seems like they are behind it, I am over this rivalry. Let us go play ND.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Same. Looking forward to new ones. It's become stale and as Harbaugh said, it's mostly manufactured at this point.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
I have been debating this scenario with my boys. It might be my fandom bias but I feel that Texas would deserve to in and OSU out. Here are my points for Texas...
1) Texas is the BIG12 champ...OSU is not...
2) Texas has the best win (@ Alabama), while OSU would be home against Penn State or @ND (with 10 guys on the field for the last 2 plays)...
3) You note that OSU has the better loss, but by how much? Texas only loss is to a rival, ranked #12, at a neutral site, in the last 20 seconds of the game...
4) Putting in OSU over anyone would mean a 2nd BIG TEN team and just as most people get bent out of shape about the SEC getting 2 teams in, the uproar over 2 BIG TEN teams would be significantly higher...
The committee has stated that they value conference champions and quality wins. That is 2 points in favor for Texas while OSU ONLY point of contention against Texas is that they have a "better" loss...
Honestly, I do not think it is even that much of a debate...
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
You're responding to a post looking at a scenario in which Texas loses today, so they would have 2 losses and not be a conference champion.
You're correct that if Texas wins today, they are ahead of OSU in the pecking order.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:53 AM ^
SEC doesn’t NEED representation. Texas won head to head, they’re in ahead of Bama. Lest we forget Bama was a hop skip and jump away from losing to freaking USF. Hate the argument that games now matter more than games from Sep. Screw that, they all matter equally. It’s a full resume throughout the year, not just the current “hottest” team.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Bama would have lost to Auburn if that dumb mother fucker had not decided to rush two fucking guys….I would have fired him before he left the field.
Two guys won’t get home if you give them eternity to get home. It’s beyond insane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7SnQYEjtTg
Watch this highlight and ask yourself what possibly makes sense. You might as well drop 11 DBs.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
And a miracle TD on 4th and forever against Auburn.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
MGoHillbilly beat me with his response by a split second :) so Harbaugh gif it is!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Head to head should trump other factors. So Texas should clearly be in over Bama if they both finish with one loss. If Bama gets in over Texas, it would be a travesty, typical SEC bias.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
Agreed. Results on the field should always come first over whether some people think one team has looked better lately.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
Games will be played. Teams will be selected
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
I will be pulling for a UM win!
and also an UGA loss and an FSU win.
Bet.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Looks like a Georgia loss and an FSU win would be the best case scenario.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
As long as Texas wins today (and Michigan of course), all I care to see are great games. Would love to see a great nail-biter of a game between Georgia and Alabama. I do think Georgia is the better team and probably should win, but it’s really hard to bet against Nick Saban in a do or die kind of game.
Won’t be surprised to see Texas try to go for style points today, if given the opportunity. And I say go for it. Whatever keeps OSU that much further out of the CFP.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Absolutely the Horns should go for style points , each point will be shoved down the throats of the eSECpn loving committee members !!! Hang 50 on them
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
Oklahoma St in not a good football team. Texas should handle their business effectively ending the other OSU’s sliver of hope.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
only problem is Texas has a bad habit of playing down to their opponents levels in big games over the years and Sark is not a great coach imo
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
I'm sorry, man. I'd agree with you on the Alabama thing if they didn't lose a head to head at home with the team they're trying to supplant. That's literally the one loss to the one team that they couldn't afford to have.
I see no issue with telling FSU that they just don't have what it takes to prove they're better than Texas or bama though.