Underdogs to start the season? Not so fast my friend!
Michigan opened up at +2.5 last week on betonline.ag they are currently at -3.5 at DraftKings and BetRivers IL. I have no idea if this means a positive uptick for the season at large or if this is due to something specific with Minnesota, but I found it interesting either way.
October 18th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
How much money has come in for Michigan to move the spread that much?
October 18th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^
This is a crazy amount of movement in one day (Michigan was +1.5 at BetRivers IL yesterday at least) so I wouldn't be surprised if this was more of a COVID induced flip than money coming in heavy on Michigan.
October 18th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
Meaning there are Covid sit outs for Minnesota?
October 18th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
HIPAA Violation?
October 18th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Sure, why not.
October 18th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
None of this really matters to anything.
October 18th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
Michigan went from an implied ~45% chance at winning to an implied ~60% chance at winning. Betting lines aren't made on a whim.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
Yeah i have said that before in Vegas. Spoiler alert Vegas is right a lot.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
The line is based on bets once the original line is put out. Vegas makes their money on juice.
October 18th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
Before the Vegas lines came out (Sota by 2.5), ESPN had the winning percentage for Michigan at 55%. It’s a 50/50 given Milton and Sota’s run D.
October 18th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
October 18th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
Sota??! Get. Out.
October 19th, 2020 at 1:11 AM ^
It's a thing. Kevin Garnett may be responsible.
October 18th, 2020 at 7:15 PM ^
Negged for ‘sota
October 18th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
I don’t drink Sota, I drink pop.
October 18th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
I'm sure its been said but it's 100% because materially more money was put on Michigan so Vegas was exposed. So the line moved to mitigate that exposure and let Vegas profit off the juice.
October 18th, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^
Nobody really knows how this will go... which is ok.
Also...
#BRINGBACKOPPONENTWATCH
October 18th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^
If Milton plays well we should win this game pulling away. So nobody knows what the hell to expect.
Let’s hope the guys inside the program are seeing good things.
QB play can be like golf. It’s not necessarily your good shots that help your score as much as minimizing your bad shots.
October 18th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
Too soon for QB and golf to be mentioned together when talking about Michigan?
October 18th, 2020 at 8:51 PM ^
Exactly, just ask Aaron Rodgers.
October 18th, 2020 at 8:51 PM ^
Milton is going to have to play good just to keep it close. The Morgan-Bateman vs raw and unproven CBs matchup is a really bad one.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:30 PM ^
I think Hutchinson and McGrone are a really bad matchup for Minny.
October 19th, 2020 at 12:08 AM ^
Don't forget Paye and Ross and...yes, Morgan and Bateman are going to need time and I don't know that they'll have an abundance of it.
October 19th, 2020 at 12:02 AM ^
I've not felt this unsure about what to expect from a Michigan squad since the Harbaugh era began in Utah.
October 18th, 2020 at 5:31 PM ^
Maybe this is an example of Michigan having a huge fan base with a national reputation and Minnesota being relatively unknown. Money moves the line. That’s a huge move though.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:18 PM ^
Fans don't move lines, gamblers move lines.
October 18th, 2020 at 8:58 PM ^
Agreed, but line movement this large is unusual. Is it possible that a lot big gamblers betting with their hearts and not their heads? Either way the smart money should be on the home dogs.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:23 PM ^
There is a rumor that Dan Faalele is opting out and possibly transferring, Demetrious Douglas has opted out, late, and starting rt guard Curtiss Dunlap tore his ACL. Douglas is a starting wr.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:38 PM ^
Where is this coming from. Not doubting you or anything in 2020. That would be BIG news in every way.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^
Never mind I just google’d it. Looks like there could be some smoke to this one. And basically PJ won’t comment on it.. Me likey. Hopefully true.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
I just spent an hour reading multiple minn blogs trying to find info on why the line may have changed also. Found the same thing about the OTs. Other users on the one site were refusing to believe the Dunlap rumors. They also argued about official word of falaale (I am not looking that up as I type this). So basically rumors but they exist.
October 18th, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
All it means is that a bunch of Michigan fans are betting on Michigan and moving the line.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:24 PM ^
Yeah, must be why the notoriously huge Indiana football fan base has moved the line in Indiana's favor against the tiny Penn State fan base.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:09 PM ^
Moved by maybe 1 point?
Kind of an apples and pickles comparison.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
To all those saying it’s just Michigan fans moving the spread, it doesn’t work like that. If it did, you’d be able to make substantial money betting against the teams with the largest fan bases to cover because the spreads are artificially inflated. In reality, the teams with the top 10 fan bases are 0.503 ATS which means one of two things:
There is no such thing as a long-term public team. If betting sites are trying to get even money on both sides of their lines so that they make money, then we would expect that the most popular teams would have a record under .500, because the sites would shade the lines to account for the flood of loyal/emotional/dumb fan money. This hasn't happened, as the against-the-spread results for these teams are collectively close to coin flips.
Betting sites don't care about moving their lines based on the bets from popular-team fan bases. The second possibility is that betting sites are not trying to get even money on both sides of the line because they are wiling to stake a position on a game, confident that they know more than the general public and make a killing when most of the money is on the losing side. If that's the case, then they would not move the line based on a large number of bets coming in for a popular team.
Vegas isn’t going to move a spread and risk substantial sharp exposure just because a lot of dumb money comes in.
October 18th, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
This is the answer. Vegas reacts when they see pro gambling sharks come in with huge money, not when mgobloggers throw a couple hundred on their favorite team.
This should be a good sign for Michigan fans that pro gamblers jumped all over a Michigan +2.5 line (below a key number of 3) or Michigan ML and Vegas then reacted by moving Michigan all way to -3.5
October 18th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^
A tossup still. Michigan games draw a lot of action so Vegas is adjusting their hedge. Going to be fun. Brady is mid season form. We have a game next week with January bowl implications. Let’s go mayn.
October 18th, 2020 at 7:45 PM ^
It means they needed to even out the money. I'm sure it will move again before Sat.
Or what they^said.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^
If I was aware of any of this kind of stuff, I would have taken Michigan to beat +2.5 for a good chunk of money
October 18th, 2020 at 10:10 PM ^
Classic sucker bet
October 18th, 2020 at 10:33 PM ^
I previously said that Michigan would probably be favored by kickoff and to get your money down early, but I didn’t see this big of a swing coming this fast.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:38 PM ^
I'd rather be the dog in Vegas, give Harbaugh a chance to get that underdog win at Michigan and focus the team on that opening week vs a team not normally much of a threat
October 19th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
Yeah, I was hoping they'd stay underdogs. Harbaugh did get his underdog win last year (they were 1 point dogs against ND), but would've liked to add to it.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:44 PM ^
shit. I was going to take advantage of the sports betting in Michigan being legal too. . .
October 19th, 2020 at 4:57 AM ^
A Jim Harbaugh team on the road against a team with a pulse at night. That's a hell of a lot of stupid money being bet on Michigan
October 19th, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^
Being an underdog is no big deal to me. With a new QB and O-Line, it remains to be seen at our end. our defense need to start crisp and make key stops. The tone will be set during the 1st quarter. We'll get our first clues then.