MGoShorts

August 6th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^

I'll only begin to question Speight's starting status if multiple "insider" reports claim Peters is just plain better. Right now it feels like the coaches know it's Speight but they want to keep the pressure on him.

Anyone know if that offshore book is still offering odds on this race?

Sten Carlson

August 6th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^

Personally, I'm VERY pleased to hear that Wilton is ahead of Peters. I don't want Peters to start yet, and believe that WS is going to have a fantastic season this year, and an even better one next year! Further, I'd prefer that every starting QB for Michigan going forward is at least in his 4th year in the program (maybe, in special circumstances, his third). Perhaps that's unrealistic, but two years starting (4th and 5th year) is plenty to get drafted. The depth and development Harbaugh & Co. are setting up should facilitate this. WS starts in '17 & '18, Peters gets '19 & '20. This might leave McCaffrey with only one year starting, who knows. Then there's Milton, and whomever else is recruited. But, to me, starting young QB's is a recipe for trouble. Yes, there occasionally are phenoms who come along, but like we're apparently seeing this year, unless they're so unbelievably good (or there is an unfortunate injury/attrition situation) we should all want our QB's to be seasoned and have multiple years within the system.

Sten Carlson

August 6th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^

No, he didn't. He was a RS freshman when he started, and he would fall under my "phenom" caveat. Again, this is an ideal and it's a similar to the ideal with the OL. It doesn't always work out, but it should be the goal of a program with a properly functioning developmental pipeline.

Sten Carlson

August 6th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^

Do you believe that experience is a criterion of being the best QB on the team? Obviously, it's not the only factor, but it is a big one, IMO. For an inexperienced QB to unseat a decent/good experienced one -- barring injury -- the physical disparity would have to be massive. Johnny Football's case is one of those -- he was just too good to keep on the sides lines (however, I don't recall the depth chart situation at A&M at the time, and it may well have been that there was nobody ahead of him). If Peters is better, so be it. But, I doubt he'll ever pass WS and, IMO, that's a great thing for the program going forward.

Mongo

August 6th, 2017 at 9:39 PM ^

best news in the UMBig11 post is Kemp is killing it and our frosh DL are awesome ... DL depth may be just as important as who starts at QB. Speight winning the job, though, is awesome news as a veteran guy at that position is usually gold for a young offense. Peters will have his day in ths sun.

SpaghettiPolicy

August 7th, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^

Love that Karan is stepping up. I think he'll be our best back, although he and Evans are both gamebreakers(shoutout to Gambreaker 98).

 

Higdon is my #1, Evans a close #2 then after that I'm hoping for a Samuels to step up. Looking like I may have been unfortunately correct on my instinct that Walker won't pan out. Not encouraging that he seems to not have developed at all physically from his HS days. 

 

Go Blue!

Don

August 7th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^

Chad Henne first full season 2004 pure freshman:

240/399  60.2%   2743 yds  11.4 yds/completion  25 TDs/12 INTs

 

Brian Griese senior year 1997:

193/307  62.9%   2293 yds  11.9 yds/completion  17 TDs/6 INTs

 

John Navarre first full year 2001 sophomore:

207/385  53.8%   2435 yds  11.8 yds/completion  19 TDs/13 INTs

 

Wilton Speight first full year 2016 sophomore:

204/331  61.6%   2538 yds  12.4 yds/completion  18 TDs/7 INTs

 

I know that raw numbers by themselves don't give the fullest picture of how effective a QB is, but Speight's statistics are better than Navarre's, pretty equal with Griese's '97 numbers, and only lag Henne's in terms of attempts/completions totals and total yards.

This doesn't mean that Peters isn't more talented, but the notion that Speight falls notably short of recent UM standards is essentially bunk.

pescadero

August 7th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^

I think you have to take into account the changes in offensive football over that time.

 

Griese stats amounted to the #22 QB rate in the country in 1997, Speight was #40 last year.

 

In 1997 there was one guy over 160 QB rate, last year there were 9 .

 

1997 #1 was 166.0 (Cade McNown) last years was 196.4 (Baker Mayfield).

 

 

LKLIII

August 7th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^

Plus those stats don't account for the nature of the wins. We obliterated the lesser opponents, which would inflate those statistics.  I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'd be interested to see how their adjusted stats would look when playing opposing defenses that were in the top 20 in the nation, for example.  

Maybe Speight's stats would hold up under that scenario, but I think it's also possible that what you'd see is him fattening up on the weaker opponents in blowout games.  IIRC, Harbaugh kind of kept Speight in some of those blowout games longer than what one might normally see for a regular starter.

That's not to say Speight can't get the job done this year--he might be able to do it.  But I think before he gets compared to those other QBs, it'd be important to make sure we truly got an apples-to-apples comparison.

rice4114

August 7th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^

In a season where we played Colorado, Iowa and 4 top ten teams. All with a first year Qb and an offensive line we all agreed had "issues". 

 

 

First world College football problems.

bamf16

August 7th, 2017 at 6:03 PM ^

Once again, more generic descriptors that dodge real conversation about the offense. 

Michigan scored more points against Rutgers and Penn State than OSU did. Does that make you happy?

Again, in Michigan's 3 losses and best 3 wins, Wilton Speight averaged double digit yards per completion in 2/6 games.

He threw for multiple touchdowns in 1/6 (the OSU game, where one of the TD throws was in Overtime).

This isn't "First world College football problems" to me. There is necessary improvement to be made along the OL and more visibly at the QB position. Personally, I think we're going to see first if that improvement can come in the form of an improved Wilton Speight from year 1 to year 2, others think it may come from the more talented Brandon Peters.  We'll see.