UM Basketball Remaining Schedule Predictions

Submitted by SharkyRVA on

Thoughts for a slow Sunday.

With the end of the Big Ten season upon us, I thought I would revisit my predictions from an October 1st thread.  UM has 5 games remaining and has gotten themselves in position for an invite to March Madness.  How do you feel about the next 5 games and how many B1G wins will we get?

My predictions below were from October which had UM getting 11 wins.  

at Illinois * W
vs. Penn State * W
at Purdue * L
vs. Maryland * L  
at Iowa * L
vs. Minnesota * W
at Nebraska * W
vs. Rutgers * W
vs. Penn State * W
vs. Indiana * W
vs. Michigan State * L
at Minnesota * W
vs. Purdue * L
at Ohio State * W
at Maryland * L
vs. Northwestern * W
at Wisconsin * L
vs. Iowa * W

I am sticking with my 11 win projection with just a few edits...

UM was able to beat MD and Purdue which I had as losses but lost to Indiana and the end of year Iowa game looks a lot tougher than I thought in October.   My final 5 game prediction is now:

at Ohio State * W
at Maryland * L
vs. Northwestern * W
at Wisconsin * L
vs. Iowa * L

This gets us to 11 B1G wins and 21 total wins.  With no bad losses and wins over MD and Purdue, we should be a tourney team.  What say you?

**LeVert's return may help us steal another win or two assuming he can get back into the flow.

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schreibee

February 14th, 2016 at 5:03 PM ^

i dispute the definition of "Bad Loss" - they may not have lost to any bad teams, but their losses have been BA-A-A-D. Like no excuses out played & outcoached BAD!!!

And based on your own prediction for the remaining games, we pretty much must win at osu to even go 2-3. I've seen nothing to indicate we can beat any team with a pulse on the road.

So...yeah, Caris! Get into game shape pronto, Buddy!

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 21143

UMichStudent2019

February 15th, 2016 at 2:21 AM ^

1. OSU has only one good win all season, and a LOT of bad home losses

2. Winning on the road at Nebraska and NC State, though not super impressive, indicates that we can perform in hostile environments.

We can definitely beat them on the road.

However, I agree that our losses, though to good teams, were pretty bad. At least, the blowout ones were. 

Joined: 11/29/2015

MGoPoints: 655

ijohnb

February 15th, 2016 at 7:40 PM ^

not matter if you lose to good teams by 2 or 20, they are all the same. Just like good wins - we played poorly against Purdue and won. All that matters is that we won. In any case, at 21-11 in the BIG with 3 wins over ranked teams we would be so in that margin of loss would be completely meaningless. With that resume we would be comfortably like an 7-9 seed. We would not even be a bubble team.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

bluebyyou

February 14th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

Maybe....Caris looked completely out of shape and out of rhythm yesterday, which is to be expected.  How long will it take him to get back into game shape?  I'd bet at least two or three weeks and by then, the B1G season will be just about over.

At the moment, I'm almost as concerned that Robinson has been shut down for a couple of weeks now.  Is that a permanent thing against good competition or will he figure out how to free up and start sinking three pointers again?

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: 18566

LSAClassOf2000

February 14th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^

Here are the projected probabilities for Michigan via Massey:

at Ohio State - 45%

at Maryland - 22%

Northwestern - 76%

at Wisconsin - 32%

Iowa - 32%

Conservatively, I would say 2-3 (so more or less what this is saying) - Ohio State and Northwestern being the wins. Part of me thinks Wisconsin is a winnable game too though. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130627

mgofro

February 14th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^

at Ohio State L
at Maryland L
vs. Northwestern W
at Wisconsin L
vs. Iowa W

Northwestern is a must win. So far we've beaten every team that we should beat, let's hope it stays that way.

Joined: 01/18/2016

MGoPoints: 4558

WolverineHistorian

February 14th, 2016 at 3:23 PM ^

Even if Wisconsin was winless, I'd be nervous for that game seeing that when they play us, every thing they throw up goes in; whether it's a miracle half court shot, a miracle backboard shot, a contested shot, or any other stupid thing you can think of. 

They looked pretty damn impressive destroying Maryland on their own court last night.  This one could get very ugly, I'm afraid. 

Joined: 08/10/2009

MGoPoints: 55466

shoes

February 14th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^

They are all winnable but I think the road games are all going to be very tough. Though I just projected one win, my second choice for a win would be that last game against Iowa too.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 9515

San Diego Mick

February 14th, 2016 at 2:57 PM ^

LeVert coming back will help as he builds his minutes and contributes more and more.

Iowa may not need that last game and might not be as motivated, hopefully that would help and we did play them tough without Caris for most of the previous game.

finish 12-6 and 22-9, win one lose one in B1G Tourney and enter the NCAA's as a 23-10, be a 6 or 7 seed is what I'm hoping for.

Joined: 05/11/2011

MGoPoints: 50644

jdon

February 14th, 2016 at 3:03 PM ^

I predict we finish 1-4. Then go 1-1 in big ten tournament...
I still think we make the big dance... And I think we can make the sweet 16.
So I'm optimistic mas o menos



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Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 5905