blue in dc

June 18th, 2020 at 8:41 PM ^

We’re talking about the risk to an individual person.   The assumption is based on 200,000 people in the US getting Covid and Ann Arbor being around the US average.  If you think those assumptions are wrong, you can adjust them.  It will be hard to fond a set of assumptions that make A Covid death more likely than dying in a car crash for a healthy 15 to 24 year old.

maznblu

June 19th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

I have no major issues with the notion that the risk of death from car crashes for college-aged individuals is higher than the risk of death from Covid-19. If you isolate just that variable, then those conclusions seem reasonable.

But I'm simply suggesting that it's an "apples to oranges" comparison.

A societal response should not be based on just this one isolated variable (individual risk). Because viruses are contagious, unlike car crashes, there is the potential for exponential growth in infections and some of those will lead to deaths. I believe the public response should be taking that exponential growth risk into consideration as well.

That's why the societal response to a car crash risk will probably be different than the response to a virus risk.

Watching From Afar

June 18th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^

Bid deal? Not really.

Absolute 0 chance of serious symptoms and/or death? No.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

The fatality rate in that age group was ~0.2%. Of those a lot are due to pre-existing conditions. NY data shows fatalities among people without pre-existing conditions between 2% and 20% of that age group. The high end of that is due to "unknown" status of pre-existing conditions in that data set so it's probably closer to 2% than it is 20%.

That all being said, young people who experience serious symptoms is higher than the fatality rate so it wouldn't be surprising to see a team of 100 guys have a couple that are out of commission for at least a few days.

While players are generally in good health, that doesn't mean they don't have pre-existing conditions. Hurst had that heart thing. Players have asthma or are overweight (DTs, OL) and some may be pre-diabetic or have colitis like Thomas (don't know if that's a risk factor but it's a relatively serious chronic condition).

Watching From Afar

June 18th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^

I'm struggling to find fatality rates by age group. Didn't see it on the Johns Hopkins or NYT sites.

Probably lower than the 0.2% originally provided but it's not 0 and if there are 13,000 FBS players it's safe to say at least a non-zero number of players will develop relatively serious symptoms. Death? I don't know.

MileHighWolverine

June 18th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^

Because we are totally fine with these guys risking their lives for our entertainment almost any other year but this time it's different.....for "reasons". If you think these guys shouldn't play due to Covid, they probably shouldn't play at all given the very serious risk of permanent injury related to football.

Look at Newsome, look at the PSU and UM players in the 97 game who were lucky not to be paralyzed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0jMWdL4ZR8

...endless examples. 

DonBrownsMustache

June 18th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^

It’s going to be crazy to see how football navigates this.  It could keep players out of a lot of practice before the season starts.  And then in season, there will be a potential for key players to sit every week if they get it.  An illness or two (or more) could derail a season for almost every team at any time.

kyeblue

June 18th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^

Living in a hotspot on long island and working for the largest medical system in the Bronx, i know a lot of people that got inflected and recovered in no time, including the entire girl's lacrosse team in my daughter's high schools, among them a Michigan commit. Those athletes should not worry all.It is very likely that they will have only minor symptoms and recover in a few days. 

bronxblue

June 18th, 2020 at 10:17 PM ^

People testing positive again after recovering was apparently due to bad testing.  There's also some speculation that some of the people who were believed to be infected weren't actually, so that might also contribute to this misconception.  The second point is true, though, and oftentimes people don't realize they are more susceptible until specific testing occurs; witness Mo Hurst not realizing he had a heart condition until the combine.  So it's a pretty safe assumption that out of the 1000+ athletes at UM a couple of them could have unknown conditions that might put them at a higher risk of contracting this disease and having negative effects.

MGoBlue96

June 18th, 2020 at 3:55 PM ^

As much as I love college football I  am sorry to say this season if it happens is going to a sham of season. A circus sideshow where a champion is crowned based on which teams get lucky enough to avoid Covid the best. The team that wins the title should have an asterisks in the record book honestly.

CoverZero

June 18th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^

And??? Will they die??? Will they go home and "kill grandma"?  OMG!!! What are we going to do?

This lockdown is the biggest FRAUD pushed on the American People in history.  It is proven that the virus is weakening as it morphs in to new strains, has less than 1% death rate, is only a threat to the very elderly and people with pre-existing conditions (like asthma).  IN addition....the case numbers are skewed and public officials have gone on record stating that anyone who dies who was Covid-19 positive has a death classified as due to Covid-19. 

These 2 players will be just fine.  They should avoid contact with any elderly family or friends, particularly those who are overweight, have hypertension, have asthma, cancer, etc.

LV Sports Bettor

June 18th, 2020 at 8:42 PM ^

It's possible to be totally against what the cop did and not support how the organization BLM operates. I've heard tons of people who feel that way. They are two totally different things. 

Don't think I've also heard a single person make excuses for the actions of cop.