Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson no longer in hospital
Keep in mind that Hanks is in his 60s and is a type 2 diabetic, conditions which work against him in this case. And yet, he's doing much better.
Just a polite reminder that CO-VID19 is not an automatic death sentence. I wish people would remember that.
Again: if you're going to be honest about the news on this, make sure you read ALL SIDES of it.
Wait, I'm confused. I thought when people said 3% or .6% or 21%, they meant 100%.
No but a much higher percent of people who are self employed or with unstable income are going to see their lives go to shit if this continues.
I saw some data today where they plotted cases and deaths on log scale. The trend is a straight upward line over three decades. In other words, 1, 10, 100, 1000 deaths and the exponential model is still holding. At some point, the graph has to level off - there’s only so many people in the world - but to someone who deals with exponentials on a daily basis, the graphs were chilling. If anything, they were showing signs of accelerating. What’s worse than exponential growth? Hell if I know.
Factorial growth
More people are recovering then dying,so your "path graph" cant continue .Thousands of people already had this virus and fully recovered (thinking they were just sick) and these thousands of people are even counted as people that beat the virus ...
What these graphs don't take into account are undocumented cases. They can guess, but scientific "guesses" have been wrong more often than not in the past. A huge number of infected people never go to the doctor or their doctor doesn't test for it because they go and, well, it presents clinically as a bad cold. Maybe they test for influenza (which comes back negative) or they simply send them home and tell them to call back if their fever doesn't resolve after 72 hours.
March 19th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
This literally happened with my new born. I had a co-worker fly domestically and literally everyone started getting sick days after in my family and at work. The baby started running a fever and they had us bring him in for influenza testing. (Which he tested positive for Influenza A) But at the time they told us to take him home and don't bring him in to a hospital unless his temp. hits 104*. Which is crazy to me. I soon became sick the next day. Lasted all of 24 hours. But I never thought I would be happy to have the flu. The crazy thing to me is my employer still wants me to come to work tomorrow. Literally does not care. Which I work with my boss' mom who has Leukemia. I would honestly quit if it wasn't my best friend.
One of the challenges is separating out growth related to increased testing vs actual growth.
March 20th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
So, how much of that growth is new infections and how much is new discovery of existing infections?
If you're negging an honest observation that legitimately can clarify the data you're being a schmuck. I'm not saying this isn't serious, doesn't exist, and we shouldn't be constantly updating our information. But bad data and bad interpretations make for bad policy, which makes things worse, not better.
March 20th, 2020 at 12:11 AM ^
And the rules requiring people to close their businesses are being made by people who, as governmental workers, are going to get paid, no matter what. They’re eliminating 100% of the income of others while being guaranteed to receive 100% of their own.
March 20th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
My sister's family just got off the unemployment train, after more than a year on it. She has a child at home who is healthy but has some mental special needs.
Losing the job they just got could mean losing their home. Period.
I'm exhausted by the fear mongering and the rapid dissemination of early results as solid fact. We have to deal with facts, and *proper interpretation of those facts*. And yes, we do have to factor in the economy in our plans; because massive recessions kill people too.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
Let's stop reading Slate and Fox for updates.
Good for them. David Pumpkins is getting tired of cleaning up after Hooch
That's David S. Pumpkins to you.
A Bosom Buddies meme (for those of us old enough to remember it) or gif would be nice about now...
Especially with Donna Dixon.
Look I understand your efforts to say it isn’t so bad, I really do. But let me ask you a question.
Do you really think the NBA, NHL, NCAA and MLB all just turned on the news, saw a few stories on CO-VID19, and said “Gosh, this looks kind of worrisome. We’d better suspend/cancel the season and lose hundreds of millions, if not billions, in revenue.”
We’re talking about leagues that have played, almost uninterrupted ,through wars, natural disasters, economic hardship, disease outbreaks, and anything else you can think of.
There is zero chance that Adam Silver, Gary Bettman, Rob Manfred, and Mark Emmert didn’t consult with a boatload of the top medical professionals in the entire world for their expertise how bad this could get and advice on what action to take.
If what those men heard was alarming enough for them to take the unheard of step to immediately suspend everything and either end the season, or put it in serious doubt, all while losing a huge amount of money. Then that’s good enough for me to believe this whole thing is going to be pretty damn bad.
Who said this was a harmless virus to everybody? I certainly did not.
In fact, I've said before that I know numerous people who WOULD be at a serious risk due to age and/or medical history. And it's for their sakes more than mine that I take the necessary precautions.
BUT... the truth remains that a vast majority of people who have caught this have recovered from it as well. And the truth also remains that, for a vast majority of people, the symptoms are mild (94% of current cases).
It's one thing to exercise caution for the sake of the vulnerable; I have no issue with that. It's another thing (and a dishonest and unhelpful one) to scream that we're all gonna die like some people I've seen are doing.
Since you are unfamiliar with the rhetorical device of hyperbole, I thought I might suggest some reading. Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole
Just do the math.
There are 327 million people in US.
About 60% of them are expected to get infected = 196 million
6% of the infected will be serious enough to require hospitalization = 12 million
Total number of hospital beds in US = 931 thousand
Even if the infection happens over three months, 3 out of 4 people who needs to be hospitalized will not be able to get the help they need (and that is just for COVID, not counting every other "normal" diseases like cancer) and the death rate will boost way above 1%. Everyone who is over 70 years old and need hospitalization for ANY REASON will be told to go home and wait to die.
Yes, it is mild for most of us. That still does not mean that it is not a disaster.
You summed it up quicker and much better than I did. This is the whole point, right here.
While these numbers aren’t off, I do caution using projections as facts.
while the projections may come close to being facts, there’s an opportunity for the great problem solvers of America to do what they do.
The projections don't have to be true, but we likely have to make sacrifices like these current shutdowns. What we can't realistically expect is to live our normal lives right now and not have to deal with the virus. No country has been able to do that. China's lockdown is ongoing.
We are not a similar culture to China. They don’t share the same freedoms Americans have for hundreds of years. We do have to make sacrifices, very significant ones, but the emotional beat down that people are experiencing right now is going to be too much the handle. The changes have to be commiserate with the threat. You cannot literally turnoff a culture like this. There needs to be opportunities for civil gatherings. Libraries need to function with limited hours and occupancy limits. Places of worship need to be available. Too much has been taken away too fast. People are not going to accept having their entire lives essentially stripped of meaning because they could infect somebody else even if the virus is not a particular threat to them. Neighbors are already behaving suspicious of each other. People are going to start killing themselves man, and other people. The virus is a threat. What is transpiring in our culture right now will be even more fatal.
Read this and you'll feel better:
I believe you are the chief panicker and fear mongerer around these parts.
He absolutely is. Nothing and I mean nothing that trolling buffoon writes is ever measured. Our society is over and blah blah blah. I really hope for his sake it's an act he does on here because going through life like that must be damn near impossible.
March 19th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
Do you remember when Shaq referred to Stan VanGundy as Captain Panic? I thought that was pretty funny. Get a grip man!
March 19th, 2020 at 11:44 PM ^
my god you are such a whiny bitch
Why 60%?
Imperial College Paper says 81%. Spanish flu infected 27% of people. The Diamond Princess, the best we have for a controlled experiment? 712 out of 3711. Thats 19.2%.
People locked on a ship together for days and less than 20% infected. But yes, 60%.
March 19th, 2020 at 11:14 PM ^
You mean people who were quarantined in their own rooms? That is exactly why they are telling people to stay home. Because even with that you will see high infection rate.
March 19th, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^
They were all interacting with one another for 11 days in a close environment and it reached 20%
We are saying 60 to 81% based on nothing in an environment nowhere close to that level of proximity with a younger demographic. When our worst pandemic reached 30%. When we have zero idea of what the actual CFR is.
But please, go on about how shutting down the world makes sense because of a model.
Ok, so even if it only gets to 30%, that's almost 100 million people with the virus, 6 million requiring hospitalization, and you still only have 160k ventilators available in the US. That likely means that over 5 million people could die just from the coronvavirus by the time it's all said and done.
March 20th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
You can use a ventilator more than once so not 5 million deaths in your scenario
March 20th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
yes, that's why I estimated 5 million instead of 5.84 million deaths.
Then why have these leagues, and countless other organizations, taken these extraordinary steps as opposed to past outbreaks?
Again do you really think they just gave into mass fear mongering and said “Let’s lose billions just to be on the safe side”?
Or do you think, with all their resources available to them, they got some pretty damn solid expert information that told them “Yep, this thing is bad and could be extremely terrible if appropriate actions aren’t taken immediately”?
These men did not get to the positions they have by being a bunch of panicky idiots who make rash decisions.
The thing is, they were supposedly taking the steps to prevent it from being the worse case scenario, but from what I understand or from most of the information I am hearing, it’s going to be that anyway. Are we just proceeding with the assumption that all of these measures are simply not going to work?
Because when panic and hysteria take hold you make rash decisions that don't necessarily make sense.
For instance, according to the experts behind the paper everyone is losing their minds over, cancelling large gatherings would have little effect on slowing the spread of the virus. So if we're going to take their warnings seriously, why not follow all their advice?
According to these guys, 2 million Americans will die in 6 months, 81% of the population will be infected and at the peak, 69000 people per day will be dying from the disease if we do nothing. But...
"Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants." p8 below.
So we are in the middle of the super Spanish Flu, but actually mass gatherings are fine.
All news outlets are saying that the vast majority will recover from mild cases and quoting the same exact mortality statistics that you are (~15% mortality above age 80, etc.). You are seriously mischaracterizing how this is being portrayed. It sounds almost delusional.
Dude look right above in this thread.
The only one doing that is you and you're trolling on purpose at this point. Just two things said by you above "life is being stripped of all meaning" and "people are gonna start killing themselves" get an actual grip on yourself. Find an activity that doesn't consist of hysterical trolling and then claiming everyone else is out of control with panic.
Keep trolling brother, you're expert level at this point.
March 20th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
These people (scooter, western and ijohnb, jdean) are paid political trolls, they literally have to argue against facts. Watch how they argue the same talking points in every thread, and quote the same fake news souces and twitter accounts.
Who is screaming that? Show/link one example.
It’s part liability and part PR why those leagues did it.
The NBA was faced with a dilemma when a couple of their players tested positive. With the info at the time, they wanted to avoid the liability (ie. getting sued, etc) or PR hit if there was even 1 death (or hospitalization) of a fan that may or may have not got infected at a game. The other leagues had to follow suit. Imagine if say, the NCAA, decided to still have the tourney and someone dies/gets seriously sick from the coronavirus? Overall, it was probably a prudent financial decision for all leagues.