Today's Rooting Guide
Well, shitting the bed sure wasn't fun yesterday. It does seem it was the perfect microcosm of the season. Nothing we can do about that now.
Let's talk rooting interests for today and there are some HUGE ones! Let's look at our info first:
- First with us, Bracket Matrix did an update last night and we were in 130 of 133 brackets. I would expect that number to drop a bit with today's update.
- Interestingly enough, we didn't move at all on Torvik. We came in at 25 and are still at 25. He has us as the 9th team above the cut line and the second to last 10 seed.
- Our NET ranking took a small dip. We were 31, we're now 34.
- Lunardi at ESPN still has us as the 6th last team in the tournament. That Notre Dame lost helped A TON! As predicted, Palm with CBS has us as the 2nd team out.
So, what helps us today (in order of importance):
- I actually like Rutgers. I think their team is really fun to watch but we need Iowa to beat them today and big if possible. Rutgers has a gaudy 6 Q-1 wins (we have 5) but their NET ranking is still a problem at 77 as they have 2 Q-3 losses and a dreaded Q-4 loss. Lunardi has Rutgers one slot above us. Not counting conference champions, Bracket Matrix has Rutgers 6 spots behind us. Gotta have an Iowa win here.
- Staying in the Big Ten, we need Illinois to beat Indiana today. With their win yesterday that will never be mentioned again, they are now 41 on the NET ranking. Lunardi has Indiana as his last team in, Bracket Matrix has them as their 2nd team out, and Torvik has them as his first team safe from Dayton. ILL-INI (barf)
- In the Mountain West (which by the way, is likely to get at least 3 teams in the tournament), we need Boise State to beat Wyoming. Wyoming is up to 44 on the NET ranking are their last second win over UNLV last night.Bracket Matrix, Lunardi, and Torvik all agree that Wyoming is one of the last 4 teams in. A loss for them tonight likely pushes them out.
- We need Miami to lose to Duke today. Miami is an interesting case. With their last-second win against BC yesterday, they actually dropped to spots on the NET rankings (to 63). Miami has 3 Quad-3 losses. Lunardi has them 2 spots above us. Torvik has them one spot above us and Bracket Matrix has them 3 spots below us. A Duke win can actually help a Michigan team, who knew?
- This one will be easy for me because I've always thought Richmond had one of the cooler mascots (plus Beilein coached there) but we need Richmond to beat VCU today. This should actually be, on paper, an awesome game. Torvik and Bracket Matrix are believers in that VCU is one of the last 1-2 teams left off the bracket. Lunardi thinks they're a little further back than that. Either way, we need one less team to worry about. Go Spiders!
- Another big one in the AAC. We need Tulsa to beat SMU. Tulsa is interesting. They were playing awful but have pulled off some decent wins over the last 2 weeks. General agreement here that SMU is right on the cut line. NET ranking of 48, Bracket Matrix has them as the last team in, Lunardi has them as the first team out, and Torvik has them as his 4th to last team safe. We're big Tulsa fans today.
- We'd love it if UMass beat Dayton. This one is probably a pretty tough pull as UMass hasn't been great this year. Dayton winning this game isn't going to help them much but losing would be bubble death. Dayton is 52 on the NET ranking. Little bit of disagreement here, as Torvik and Bracket Matrix have Dayton as the 7th and 5th team out of the field respectively but Lunardi has them as his 2nd team out. Go Minutemen!
- North Carolina did us a solid yesterday and we need them to do it again. We're rooting for NC against Virginia Tech. Speaking of a solid, VT beating Notre Dame was a huge gift but your run needs to be over Hokies. They are now 33 on the NET ranking (one above us). Torvik has them as his first team out, Lunardi thinks they're the 3rd team out. Bracket Matrix is a touch behind with the games from yesterday and says 6th team out. Go Heels!
- We need Oklahoma's run to end, they're moving up quickly. Their NET ranking is now 38. Bracket Matrix and Lunardi are in agreement that Oklahoma is the 4th team out, Torvik thinks they're the 6th to last team in the field. Either way, we're rooting for Texas Tech to beat the Sooners.
- One more case of the bid stealer, we need Auburn to beat Texas A&M today. A&M's net ranking is now 55 and climbing. But a loss today officially knocks them out. Some general agreement here with Torvik and Lunardi. They both have A&M about 6-7 spots off the cut line but a win over Auburn would change that drastically. We can't risk that. Go Tigers!
Wins by SDSU, Arizona, and UCF would also be helpful for our SOS but I won't be greedy ;)
There you have it! Let's move up that seed line! Go Blue!
Garza's feet were so slow he held them back defensively. This team might be the real deal in the big ten at least.
I really can't blame Iowa's struggles on Garza. Dude was an absolute scoring machine.
It's just their system. Like Wisconsin, it will never translate to long-term tourney success.
The only time Wisco made a deep run was when they were stacked with talent (Kaminski, Dekker).
Keegan Murray is legit.
Couple of positives lately with Iowa starting to go against Rutgers and Cincy losing to Houston. Did not need Cincy winning that game.
Yep, non bubble teams taking auto bids is the other thing to root against.
Illinois gacking it up against IU hurts a bit but UM still has a road win over IU so that doesn't hurt as much as if the Hoosiers had swept UM. Houston and Iowa looking good helps as well.
As long as A&M doesn't win the SEC they probably aren't in the field, so that's not a huge issue yet. Colorado making a run in the Pac-12 would be rough but it's still early there.
Honestly if Rutgers loses today and doesn't make it, it would be bizarre for the team that finished 4th in a tough conference to not get in but they definitely would not deserve it with their losses and net ranking. Which is why I think UM should feel somewhat decent at that point because I think the committee would see the Big Ten as at least an 8 bid league barring absolute craziness in other conferences to change that.
The old Nebrasketball special
They beat us out for the double bye in 2018 despite them being on the bubble and us comfortable in the tourney. They desperately needed any win to feel good, but instead of playing an average Iowa team in the first round like we did, they had to play us in their first game, got promptly destroyed, and left out of the tournament. Michigan ended up having a pretty good run after that game…
I understand most experts have us in, but that's with everyone that we need to lose to lose. Teams no longer playing will only fall down the ladder. I think we're fucked.
According to most projections UM doesn't need everyone to lose though, some have them still clear of the last 4 in all together. Like I said there is no way the Big Ten gets less than 8 barring alot of things happening in other conferences. And if Rutgers loses today and it comes down to UM or Rutgers for the 8th you would like UM chances. Though play in game would definitely be a very real possibility.
True Blue 9 probably shouldn't say we need these things to happen. We want them to happen. Only if all or the vast majority of them happen, plus a bunch more tomorrow go against us, we're fine.
Rutgers kind of falling apart here. Get that game to fall our way and we're right back on track. The next big games are tonight for sure.
one other bad thing about yesterday's game besides the obvious loss is that we'll never have a big enough lead in a game to relax. up 17 with 12:53 and we choked. unless we're up 30 at the under 4 minute TV timeout, it's a nail-biter.
God damn, you're right. This will take a long time to get over.
It was the shittiest of all shit sandwiches. It is the kind of loss that feels worse 24 hours later. That was Michigan’s “run”. Coach was back, they had momentum and a sense of purpose and belief. Yesterday they bet on themselves and allowed themselves to finally play like the confident favorite. It was the guy who doesn’t think he can find a date who summons the courage to ask out a girl who laughs in his face. They might make the tournament, but any chance of them playing like we thought they could be vanquished yesterday. That was the season ender, whether they are in the tournament or not.
Well, if they are in the tournament, it's not the season ender.
The most average of teams can and have made deep runs in the tournament.
This team is a mental basket case. They are incredibly fragile. It is as much about belief as it is anything else. Yesterday they started to believe and were told very loudly not to. I don’t think they can repair their psyche in time. Could be wrong, just my take.
This is a take that has a lot of components that don't add up.
Lol--I was reading it and thinking the same thing. A shit sandwich, also kind of like asking out a girl, and also maybe the end of the season. Couldn't quite figure out how it all fit together.
Refs in the tournament would never let IU (or another team) get away with the holding, tugging, slapping, and shoving they did against Dickinson in order to deny him post touches. Now, we still missed wide-open shots, but that shit that they allowed in the 2nd half was absurd.
Rutgers is making this a game. Is Iowa about to do a “Michigan” and collapse?
WOW.
The Rutgers S&C coach has two techs. There's no way that's happened in the history of basketball.
That was one of the strangest/funniest techs I've seen.
To be fair Bo Boroski pisses alot of people off. What an awful official he is.
to be fair
This Rutgers-Iowa finish is the highest leverage kenpom time I think I've ever had the discomfort of watching.
There was a good chance that if Rutgers kept it close even in a loss, they could still move up into the NET top 75. This is because losing close to a good team can help your ranking, especially that far down. As an example, Fresno St lost to SDSU by 7 last night but still moved up from 75th to 74th.
This game went from 8 with 6:27 left to 18 (ugh!!) with 1:23 complete with crazy technicals (!!), but miraculously, in that last minute and a half Rutgers got it back down to 10. I don't know if it'll be enough to move them up but if not, we're probably talking about them only being a couple points away from passing one more more teams ahead of them.
It's going to be very interesting to see where Rutgers ends up.
A big loss by Colorado (70th) would potentially help them but they need to pass two teams. Root also for a loss by Toledo (72nd).
I think that potentially was a game for Dayton. If Rutgers wins, Michigan goes to Dayton. Now the opposite happens, assuming some games go our way tonight.
I'm talking about how the margin of that loss will impact their NET ranking which is pretty important for Michigan. We want them to finish top 75 and they could have still done that with a close loss. We'll see whether 10 is close enough.
Understood. I think you think we're a little more clearly in the field than I do. The bubble today (at least before the Rutgers game) was pretty brutal. I'd say my odds of making the tourney right now are like 70-30. But A LOT of that comes down to Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M for me.
I do think we're pretty safely in (although starting to get a little worried about OU, A&M, Vtech, etc) but that's irrelevant to things that can still help our resume.
I want us to have the best resume possible. I am not talking about a Rutgers win or loss here. I am merely talking about the margin of their loss and how it (absurdly) has pretty significant implications for Michigan and that they are on a razor's edge as far as being top 75 or not. Like literally one point of margin in the Iowa game could be the difference between them passing Oregon or not. An 11 point loss might not have been enough, but 10 might be, or perhaps they needed to lose by 9 or fewer.
And with Akron's win over Toledo just now (nice!), passing Oregon would be all it takes for Rutgers to be top 75 (for the time being). We absolutely want Rutgers to be top 75, especially if it happens despite them also losing today.
Another game just went our way. St. Louis just beat St. Bonaventure. Lunardi had them as the 8th team on the cut line. A win in the Semis in the A-10 against Davidson and they could have been a bid stealer. We'll take it! One less team for contention. Just need Davidson to beat St. Louis tomorrow and we're in good shape there.
Well, well, well. It seems we're not the only ones having trouble with IU.
Of course Wisconsin starts 3 for 16 and 0 for 4 from the line.
I tried. I really tried rooting against WI. I just can't wish for anything good to happen to Staee. Their level of suck in this first half is like a balm to my soul.
Creighton beating the crap out of Providence at the half and Miami beating Duke. Can this weekend just get over already?
Creighton is a lock- they aren't stealing a bid.
It's tied at half- I trust Duke will out-talent Miami in the 2nd.
Yeah for some reason I thought they were on the bubble line. My bad. Now, Miami needs to lose.
This is bad basketball
All I know is that I'm rooting for Staee against Wisconsin - specifically because that Davidson kid for Wisconsin is such a dick.
I'm rooting for the team playing against Wisconsin
Rooting guide changes game by game. I am thinking short term pain leads to long term gain for this team. In other words, NIT this year (humiliation that comes with that) to motivate the coaches and players to be better as this year there is obvious dysfunction in the schemes at times and lack of hustle as well.
Also, at the time I am posting this, MSU is looking good and that makes me want to puke.
I can't even begin to comprehend this logic that a team will "learn" to play better by playing in a worse tournament instead of playing better teams with more at stake.
March 11th, 2022 at 11:17 PM ^
Teams that miss the tourney are more motivated (and hustle more) the following season than teams that made it? Am I missing something here? Are most of the projected 1-4 seeds teams that missed the tourney last year or something? Lol
C'ya Brad - Sparty, your balls can come out now.
I feel sick cheering for MSU! but nothing beats Davison's in full meltdown mode after missing a FT and then Fouling out
Cmon finish them Sparty. Davison is crying to his cheap shot mentor Krabbenpuff after fouling out. Guard the damn 3 ball, no fouls
Conflicted watching Sparty and Wisconsin play. Too bad both couldn't lose the game
I know, I feel like I gotta take a shower and/or go watch some welding at close range with no goggles
Duke doing it's part. SMU is crushing Tulsa but it feels like the AAC is going to get 3 teams regardless so I'm not as bothered by that outcome as some.
EDIT: I didn't realize SMU was as lowly rated - I thought of them as more safely in and less like IU of probably in but apparently they're on the cusp.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:06 PM ^
According to the “Experts” right now. Are we in or out Sunday?