Time to Move On - 2014-2015 Will be a Fun "Transition" Year and 2015-2016 We're Big 10 Title Contenders Again
Hello everyone. Let's move on from this week of EMO (Lindsay! Mitch!) to look ahead
First we have one of the best staffs in college bball. Our players individually and as a team progress year over year and through the year. What a luxury. Second, we just sent our entire NC starting lineup early entry to the NBA - recruits not in the haze of UK, Duke, Kansas will notice. Our resume walking into any recruits house now is among the best:
- Great coaching staff
- 2 conference titles in 3 years
- 2 Elite 8s or better back to back
- NBA development of "non top 20" recruits best in the nation... so anyone ranked 30-100 listen up...
- Play in a top 2-3 conference for bball
- Did I mention our academics - aside from UNC and Duke, the best among the "country's basketball powers".
The 2014-2015 squad will struggle with size, and interior defense. We will have to rip off a redshirt off a player or two we'd prefer to "Donnal". That's the price of success. But let's fast forward 1 year after Caris is our 6th early entry in 3 years.
I am going to put on my maize and blue shade goggles and tell you about a young, athletic, and LONG team that is a nightmare to play against... of course with my glasses Irvin does very well next year but not quite well enough to be a top 20 NBA pick and comes back ;) Even if he doesn't its still very bright. I also assume Huff, who according to freep.com story yesterday, sounds very high on UM is headed our way.
“As far as Cole goes, it’s Michigan,” Parks said. “And when a school like Michigan calls…”
[EDIT - Looks like Huff is a "lean" per our MGoInsider]
So up front I bring you a front line of 6'9 RS SO Donnal, 6'10 SO Doyle, 6'8 JR Huff*, 6'8 SO DJ Wilson.
6'8 SO Chatman you ask? Well he might be a 2 by then (his dad mentioned Bielen could see him as a 1)....unless our 6'6 JR Irvin returns. Lack of length, size, rebounding you say - nah that was a 2014-2015 issue...this 2015-2016 squad has size everywhere. Oh did I mention we have a JR PG (been a while since we could say that) with a backup SR PG. Experienced PGs usually are a cool thing for long tourney runs. We've been making do with babies at that position for a few years.
That is our 8 deep folks. Oh and then you throw in "role" players such as 21 year old SO 6'4 MAAR at 2 and SO 6'6 Dawkins* at 3. Folks that is a 10 player rotation. I didnt even mention RS SR 6'7 Max Bielfeldt as the 11th man.
Did I mention our yet to be known 2015 freshman of which we can be sure one will be a top 30 type talent? Maybe even 2 in the top 50? Where are they going to even find playing time? Any elite talent will be pushing MAAR Dawkins type guys down to 11th or 12th men.
So yeah... 2014-2015, will have some nightmares versus the Kaminsky's of the world and our interior defense will be LOL but Beilein will find offense one way or another to make it an entertaining if "OMG why did you do that...oh yeah freshman" team. But that experience along with reinforcments coming in is going to lead to a 2015-2016 team which is going to be like...wow.
Onward. (edit - my title assumes Wiscy wins the Big 10 title in 2014-2015, and pretty handily)
April 25th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
Definitely what we need on a day like today. You keep doin' what you do, brother!
Go Blue!
April 25th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
We can be a big ten contender this year if we get a few more class of 2014 post players. Lets not concede the season. Last year we lost Burke, Hardaway, and McGary and still were big ten champs and almost final four bound. We still have Walton, Levert, Donnal, Irvin, Chatman etc.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
indicates that they're not going after post players. The 2014-2015 team are pretty heavy with frontcourt players like Doyle, Wilson, Donnal, and Biefeldt. Throw in Chatman and Irvin who could see time at the 4 position.
The coaching staff have been after the wing players like Dawkins and Huff.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
If Dawkins commits to us it sounded like Sam Webb said he is likely a fuy to take over GrIIIs role. He is more like 6'6 they are saying and I hope that is true.
People need to stop listening to Sam Webb's basketball projection.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
So now we can't even fall back on the basketball team if the football team stinks again?
April 25th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
You get downvoted for already making us non-contenders next year.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
I will accept that as a penalty. I see our 2014-2015 squad as one that is fun to watch, full of offense, but scary on defense and challenged as a rebounding group (although I think we have upside to the rebounding if Chatman is the 4, and Doyle and Wilson play more than I think). I don't see anyone beating Wisconsin for the Big 10 title next year but I am open to being wrong.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
Trying to look on the bright side (tough, because Mitch is such a talented player) we should have an upgrade in size/defense/rebounding at the 4. GRIII has been the guy there the last two years and Novak the year before.
Chatman, Donnal, and Wilson are all bigger guys. They also still bring quite a bit of offensive skill to the spot. And we have options.
To me, Doyle becomes a big key. If he can be a somewhat similar player to Morgan/Horford (set screens, play D, grab boards, finish when you get a wide open opportunity) the actual drop-off from last year may not be that great (when we didn't have Mitch either, and still made the Elite 8). Hopefully he is dining on glass and rusty nails and will be a mean son of a bitch come November.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
I think Donnal can bring us what Morgan did on offense and Doyle can do what Horford did on offense. I think both will be worse on defense than those peers - defense comes with age if you are not a jump out of the gym type and neither of those players are jump out of the gym types who are imposing shot blockers, etc. They are more like Matt Costello athleticism from what I can tell on tape.
I have looked at Doyle more than Donnal to be honest because he is more of a mystery. He is not an "over the rim" type of player, despite being 6'10. Hence Beilein's comments about how he might have to recruit some of those type of players in the future after this NCAA tourney. If you put GR3's athleticism into a Doyle or Donnal - well then you'd have a UK type big. Or heck, even Mitch! :(
But overall - I think the offense won't suffer ... but people generally when they think about replacing players dont think about defense. Morgan was easily the best interior defender.
And I agree with you on the 4 - we replace 6'6 GR3 with 6'8 Chatman and potentially some 6'8 Wilson. Hence why I think there is 'upside' to rebounding versus the consensus view. But I expect a lot of foul trouble across the board up front, because that's just what first year bigs do.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
No one who plays the four or five for Michigan next year has played a minute of college basketball other than Irvin (not a natural four) and Bielfeldt. I really like the potential of Donnal, Doyle, Chatman, and Wilson down the road. But next year? All signs point to major trouble. Many a Big Ten game may be like the Kentucky game, with Michigan being murdered on the boards.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
is who, Stauskas? McGary at one point considered the #1 overall, GRIII finished ranked top 15. Even Stauskas was top 50-60 or so. We'll have to wait to see where Caris lands before we start this narrative.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
Mitch finished 30, Nik was 70ish, Caris was nowhere, THJ was a 3 star, Burk was a 3 star.O
Only Irvin and GR3 were 5 stars.... and "top 25"
April 25th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
I will add that it's ridiculous that McGary got a one year ban when Derrick Nix didn't get suspended at all for driving a vehicle under the influence of weed and the Honey Badger only missed one game because of it.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
Just saying we have 3 possible candidates would aren't absurb to think could go pro.
LaVert, Walton and Irvin......so let's not assume anything yet until this time next year.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
I will get downvoted but I dont see Walton Jr as an early entry next year even if he averages 14 ppg. Go look at Monte Morris at Iowa State stats as a freshman and they are as good or better than Walton Jr (he was asked to do more) and no one talks about him as an early entry.
People are freaked about due to Morris and Burke but Morris had size and averaged 18 ppg as the center of the offense as a SO... and Burke was well...once every 20 year type of player. Walton Jr looks like a solid to very good Big 10 player who will improve every year but next year will be option 3 so won't have the stats and doesnt have the advantage of size like a Morris did. Not every guy who averages 6 ppg is going to be an early entry after his sophomore year....especially PGs. With Walton JR I am hoping for a 3rd team Big 10 type season next year.... I expect Caris as option #1 and Irvin as option #2 and Donnal and Walton Jr shaing scoring load as option #3 next year.
I assumed LeVert was gone per my analysis already - he is not listed in that lineup. Irvin I assumed would be back but I winked meaning I think there is a 50/50 chance he goes - even if he goes we're going to be something like 11 deep in 2015-2016 if even 1 2015 freshman plays. That's sick.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
I'm no scout so I really don't know, but apparently all guards make dramatic jumps from Freshmen to Sophmore years and wouldn't be insance to see Walton or Irvin do that. I just want people to consider that before imagining banners raising up again in 2 years.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
as an early entry after next season, but the ISU folks are pretty geeked about Morris--and I'm pretty sure that they are concerned he might leave early with another good season. Walton and Morris have played at such a comparable level for so long.
Other than as a buffer against players leaving early, I don't really care too much about being 11 deep. Beilein historically plays only 7-8 anyways--the 9th is like Beilfeldt this year and Vogrich last year.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
Yes I am actually thinking if it might hurt our 2015 recruiting since you seriously can make a case for a 10 man rotation even BEFORE any 2015 freshman joins in. Elite 2015s are going to want to play right away and unless Irvin leaves (which of course I would not want) and Chatman goes down to be the 2, there is going to be a logjam at quite a few positions.
Again I am not down on Walton. Burke was a special special player and Morris was a 6'4 guy who was the center of the offense his SO year just like Burke was. Walton Jr will not be the center of the offense and while I liked what he did as a freshman (freshman PG is difficult), he is 6'1 and not every guy who plays at UM will be Burke. Usually 6'1 sophomore PGs dont go early entry....unless you are just very special.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
upward move in his game next season. He should get a lot more minutes, which should really help him by itself. He's a very good player with a lot of upside. To be ready for the NBA, he'd need to get a lot better at driving the ball into the paint. He seems to be able to do it, but just needs to do it more often. Overall though, I'd see him staying at least through his junior year.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
Burke was a 4 star if I remember correctly. Walton and Morris were 4 star.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
Burke was 3.5, and so was Morris.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
How about we stop assuming that transfers are coming to Michigan and just let things play themselves out?
April 25th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
The good thing is that most of the big ten teams will be down next year.Wisconsin should be good. I have no idea what Ohio will be like.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
If we take both Dawkins and Huff, and have no attrition after the 2014 season (we'll have no seniors on the roster next year), we'll have no room for any 2015 recruits. Obviously, that could change if (1) Caris leaves early, (2) Bielfeldt gets a firm handshake after four years and doesn't use his redshirt fifth, (3) Hatch receives a medical after a year on the roster, and (4) transfers. Should be interesting.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
If there's one certainty about basketball right now it's end of the year attrition.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
regardless of McGary. I expect them to be a top 25 team with LeVert leading the way and improvement from Walton and Irvin. They will be difficult to defend because of Beilein's offense and the ability to space defense with shooting and motions.
Michigan will finally have 5 players who can score from anywhere at any point which is a good thing.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
Yeah, our interior defense and rebounding will be questionable. The good news is that we don't play in the same league as Kentucky, Kansas, or Duke. Frank Kaminsky is a great center, but he's hardly the physical type that could take advantage of our size. In fact, Donnal might be athletic enough to give him a good fight. AJ Hammond, and a few 7' freshmen (Maryland and Purdue) are the only giant bodies who return to our league. OSU has some trees, but they haven't been all that impressive in 6 combined years. State has veteran bulk with Costello, but beyond that it's Schilling and strech-type Kaminsky.
I don't think this changes our outlook for the conference that much. We'll thrive off guard play like we have been, and might even be a little better on the glass with overall better size (1-5), even if our 5 guys are young/smallish. We'll have trouble against the blue chip centers in March, but I don't see any reason why Sweet 16 shouldn't be par for next year. We'll be cool
April 25th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
Doyle would be very young and doesn't come with high recruiting pedigree, but he's a big dude already. Luckily, he doesn't seem like a guy who has to add a bunch of weight. Not saying he'll be ready, but he seems more likely than a lot of other guys to be able to bang physically.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
I like this post, and have upvoted it because the core point that we're still in good shape for MBB is one worth remembering, especially after today's McGary charlie foxtrot.
Howevah, I'm curious for the basis of this assertion:
Did I mention our academics - aside from UNC and Duke, the best among the "country's basketball powers".
I can see making an argument for Duke > Michigan academically (I'd disagree, but maybe I'm a tad biased), but UNC? It's not often I see someone posit that UNC is academically superior to Michigan. It's a good school, but it's no Michigan (or Virginia or UCLA or ...) academically.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
I think among public institutions UNC and Michigan are considered relatively comparable. :) It is not a yawning gulf as it would be versus say OSU or Kansas. I probably worded it wrongly - I meant to say UM is on par with those schools in academic reputation... so among "basketball powers" those are schools you cannot walk in and say "well our academics are far and beyond the school you are considering". I wasn't implying any of those 3 schools is better - just that they are all on a pretty even playing field when you walk into a recruits house and talk non basketball.
I know US News and World Report is not the end all be all but they have UM as the #4 public institution in the country and UNC as #5. You named 2 schools (UCLA and VA) they named as #2 and #3. So I don't see why its an affront to consider all 4 near equals.
http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/na…
| Rank | School |
|---|---|
| #1 |
University of California—Berkeley
Berkeley, CA |
| #2 |
University of California—Los Angeles
Los Angeles, CA |
| #2 |
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA |
| #4 |
University of Michigan—Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor, MI |
| #5 |
University of North Carolina—Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC |
| #6 |
College of William and Mary
Williamsburg, VA |
| #7 |
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA |
| #8 |
Pennsylvania State University—University Park
University Park, PA |
April 25th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
I know the loss of McGary stings right now but I don't see why next years team can't compete for a Big Ten title. They should have the best backcourt in the conference and there is definitely talent in the frontcourt, though it will be very inexperienced. Defensively the team should be similar to last year, perhaps with a bit more shot blocking ability. Irvin was a terrific defender in high school and I expect to see that type of player next year as opposed to the kid that looked lost on the defensive end at times this past season. I see next years team as being in the #4-#6 seed range for the NCAA tournament with another top 3 finish in the Big Ten.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
Indiana and Ohio State may quarrel with that, depending on how legit their freshman are.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
I very much respect your opinon on MBB matters, but don't you see a problem with the following depth chart?
Center: Donnal (never played a real game), Doyle (3 star true freshman who played against poor competition), Bielfelt
PF: Chatman (true freshman), Wilson (very skinny true freshman), Irvin (will have to play SF most minutes and is not a natural four)
At best, that's a lot of unknowns. At worst, it's a bunch of kids who won't know how to play defense or bang with the bodies they'll run up against in the Big Ten without being called for a foul every other minute.
All of that said, I hope you're right.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
We just went to the title game with three freshmen and a sophomore in the starting lineup. If guys are good, we'll be fine.
I see a superb backcourt (Walton and Irvin should be improved and LeVert is already a top-notch player). I see three top-100 guys competing for time at the 4, all with much better size than what we've had in GRIII, Irvin, and Novak at that spot the last three years.
The question is at center. And it isn't like we need a lot there. If Max and Doyle (who may also be underrated because of his competition and lack of camps) can just not get killed defensively and on the glass (and occasionally throw down a wide open dunk), we look a lot like the team that was so good this past season.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
The frontcourt is definitely going to be a concern, especially at the beginning of the season. I probably am a bit too optimistic and will admit that. As far as defense goes, I see the loss of Morgan as the largest blow to the team. I think Chatman and Wilson will be able to make up for whatever we lose with the departure of Robinson, at least defensively. The center position is by far the weakest spot on the team but luckily there really aren't many quality centers in the Big Ten. I think the offense will be elite again and the defense will struggle, but by the time the postseason rolls around the team should be peaking. At least I hope.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^
I think the loss of Jordan Morgan on defense will not be realized until you see the team's defense without him. Maybe I was the only one whose butt was clenched every minute of the last 15 games when he was out of the lineup ...watching guard after guard slice through our perimeter defense and get to the hole unabated. Yes it happened when Morgan was in too but less.
I see Big 10 officials giving little benefit of the doubt to the Doyle's and Donnal's of the world and calling a lot of fouls on tick tack shit. Donnal will be playing 22 minutes a game I assume (Mitch played 19 as a freshman) and Doyle maybe 10? So when they sit or get foul trouble, then what? 6'7 Bielfeldt is your center.
I think people are forgetting just how easy it was for any teams with decent guards to get to the rim the last 10-15 games of last year. Morgan was literally the only thing stopping them so unless our guards get a lot better at defense (it's possible!) that is my worry. I am not "as" worried about a guy like Costello going in there vs Donnal... I am way more worried about dribble drive penetration which was killing us last year.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
I'm remembering the same thing, and looking at it in a positive light (or at least trying to). With as bad as the situation you describe was, we still won the B1G easily and just missed the Final Four.
I assume we'll be better defensively at the other 4 spots (Walton better with experience, LeVert still solid if not improved, Irvin > Stauskas, and Donnal/Chatman/Wilson > GRIII/Irvin and with more fouls to give). Max/Doyle and maybe a little Donnal just have to not get obliterated and we're as good or better than last year. If one or more guys surprise, we'll be in great shape.
I can buy that at 3 of the positions - Walton Jr because age, LeVert a wash with old LeVert and Irvin > Nik. I didn't see "plus" defense out of Irvin last year but I assume he can be a slight upgrade. I think GR3 defense was underrated - he seemed to do very well against Stokes for example...guy was athletic. Maybe defensive effort lagged at times.
I think Donnal will be playing almost every minute @ 5 next year due to complete lack of depth at 5, so its basically Chatman/Wilson vs GR3 and I guess its a question of does 2 inches of height make up for complete inexperience at the NCAA level. All 3 players should be athletic.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
I refuse to believe our defense will be bad enough to keep us from a 4 seed or better. If our defense is weak, Coach B will simply go to a zone like he did at WVU. No excuse the offense next year doesn't put up strong numbers once again. Early prediction: 26-10 and a loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
Give me a week, and I can probably come up with a bracket that gets us to the Final 4 with LeVert winning POY.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
I'm kind of sick of the 2-years out projections. They always look good (in football or basketball) because they don't account for attrition or recruiting disappointments. If you take every kid that hasn't played and assume a reasonable best-case scenario, things look good. Nobody thought we'd have so many early entry guys 2 years ago. Nobody expected Horford to transfer. Etc.
All the glowing thoughts about the program and coaching staff are well-deserved though. When Darius left we thought death was imminent at PG, but his replacement did more than admirably. Donnal can do some things. Doyle has some promise. Bielfeldt is gonna grind. We'll survive. Beilein's done good things without having a force at center before...
The one bit I disagree with is Bielfeldt. I think there's a very decent chance he assumes the Jordan Morgan make-the-most-of-what-you-have leadership and role-playing position on this team. He's now the vet. Until proven otherwise, I'd pencil him in as the starting C for the next couple years. I certainly wouldn't use pen though. Even if he doesn't start I'd be shocked if his role isn't promoted from 11th man over the next couple seasons.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
I'm just going to assume that multiple guys will leave the program every offseason from now on. Somehow John Beilein is competing with John Calipari for coach who loses the most guys to the NBA every year.
I wonder if some of this relates to the tendency of Beilein-coached teams to have outstanding offenses and so-so defenses. The NBA probably values offensive production and potential more than defensive production and potential. An Izzo or Ryan team usually wins with good defense and imposing its pace. Putting players in front of NBA scouts who are stout defensively - or who work well in those coaches' less-than-sexy systems - probably doesn't get those scouts drooling like seeing our guys run transition beautifully, shoot extremely well, etc.
I'm not saying I'd change anything. Beilein & co. are amazing. I just wonder if that burns us a bit with NBA early entry decisions.
That makes a lot of sense to me. I believe you're on to something.
Welp I guess we can assume Donnal, Walton, Chatman all go too. And we're Kentucky except that even they are bringing back almost all their top 20 ranked big men not named Randle for sophomore years. And one for a junior year.
UM has been hit with a nearly unprecedented run of early entries. I don't even think Duke or Kansas has seen this level of attrition the past few years - so I am not going to extrapolate losing 3 players every year early entry when its atypical for any program not named Kentucky.
Don't assume anything. Projecting out 2 years always looks rosey, so there's not much point in it.
That said, if you must do it, if you're talking about 5 guys who have yet to play, you might assume 1 is gone after next year to the NBA, 1 is gone due to bad attrition, 1 isn't very good, and 2 others meet expectations are your average 4th-7th rotation guys. Something along those lines is more reasonable than just assuming they're all good players who will be back for their 2nd/3rd years.
April 25th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^