Three-way tie breaker rooting interests
There are two weeks of B1G play left. We all know there is potential for a three-way tie for first place in the B1G East division between UM, MSU, and OSU. The tie breaker will likely come down to opponent B1G West conference record. UM’s opponents are Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Northwestern. MSU’s opponents are Northwestern, Nebraska, and Purdue. OSU’s opponents are Minnesota, Nebraska, and Purdue. Those five teams win totals are as follows:
Wisconsin – 5
Minnesota – 4
Purdue – 4
Nebraska – 1
Northwestern – 1
Adding these up, you find UM’s opponent total wins are 7, MSU’s are 6, and OSU’s are 9.
This leaves UM two games behind OSU. Can UM catch up?
Here are the remaining schedules with ESPN’s percent chance to win.
Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2 New Wins
Wisconsin Nebraska (70%) Minnesota (65%) 2
Minnesota Indiana (68%) Wisconsin (35%) 1
Purdue Northwestern (82%) Indiana (83%) 2
Nebraska Wisconsin (30%) Iowa (57%) 1
Northwestern Purdue (18%) Illinois (31%) 0
If you assume the favorite wins, this leaves the new totals at
Wisconsin – 7
Minnesota – 5
Purdue – 6
Nebraska – 2
Northwestern – 1
Unfortunately, this stretches OSUs lead (UM – 10, MSU – 9, OSU – 13).
In order for UM to catch and pass OSU to win this tie breaker, UM needs some upsets. Here is one scenario that does this. If Northwestern wins against Purdue, Indiana wins against Purdue, and Northwestern wins against Illinois.
Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2 New Wins
Wisconsin Nebraska (70%) W Minnesota (65%) W 2
Minnesota Indiana (68%) W Wisconsin (35%) L 1
Purdue Northwestern (82%) L Indiana (83%) L 0
Nebraska Wisconsin (30%) L Iowa (57%) W 1
Northwestern Purdue (18%) W Illinois (31%) W 2
Wisconsin – 7
Minnesota – 5
Purdue – 4
Nebraska – 2
Northwestern – 3
New hypothetical total wins (UM – 12, MSU – 9, OSU – 11).
The odds are low (.18 x .17 x .31 = 1%), but now you know who you must cheer for over the next couple weeks. Of course, the work of this post on a boring Wednesday morning at work will be meaningless if OSU wins against MSU this weekend. Probably best to just root for that.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
We all know there is potential for a three-way tie for first place in the B1G East division between UM, MSU, and OSU.
How, exactly, is there a realistic potential for a three-way tie? Michigan and MSU already each have one loss, OSU has none in conference. OSU plays each, so there are two more guaranteed losses, for a total of four losses among the three teams. One of them will end up with two losses and out of the potential tie situation.
I guess Michigan could lose to Maryland, MSU to PSU, and both beat OSU, for a three-way tie at 7-2. But the chances of that are somewhere between slim and none.
EDIT since I think my snark obscured what I wanted to say: this is an irrelevant post and waste of time. The three-way tie scenario isn't going to happen. OP should go back to work, or at least thoroughly examine the basic premise of the post to confirm it is, in fact, possible and reasonably likely.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Your last sentence is the only way there can be a three way tie. While not impossible, I'd say very very unlikely.
Two team tie breakers are just head to head, so if Michigan wins out, MSU needs to lose one more game. Doesn't matter which one unless we're trying to get Michigan to an outright B1G East title in which case you actually want MSU to beat OSU and then lose to PSU.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
There isn't a possibility of a 3-Way tie that goes any further than the 1st tiebreaker which is...
1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
(a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.
If Michigan loses to Maryland and beats OSU. OSU loses to MSU and Michigan. This means it's a 3-way tie but OSU gets knocked out because of their 0-2 record against Michigan and MSU. MSU's head to head then takes the tiebreaker over Michigan.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
While reading the OP, my first thought was that the East teams would first follow a tie-breaker between them and then look records against West opponents (if necessary).
Thanks for clearing this up!
November 17th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
You are not obligated to read and respond to every post. If you someone exploring some (remote) hypothetical is irrelevant/waste of time, then.... oh, idk.. just keep scrolling.
You don't have to shit on his/her morning.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
I guess posts like this one are the reason that you've been a member for almost 4 years but only have 138 MGoPoints.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
And you do not have to respond to their response. There is nothing wrong with calling out shit posts.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
Yes and then in that case MSU would win the head to head tiebreaker since they would have beat both UM and OSU.
November 17th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
That's a LOT of discussion about an "irrelevant post."
November 17th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
Pretty sure the 3 way tie scenario went out the window when MSU lost to Purdue. Just need OSU to beat MSU
November 17th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
Dammit. And I thought I was being clever. I wanted to see where this actually stood and didn’t think about what has happened since this first came up. Neg it.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
That would be brutal. Don't shit down your leg this weekend, fuckeyes.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
Would really appreciate not rooting for Northwestern for the next two weeks. Would rather bite the bullet and hope the buckeyes pull out the win this weekend
November 17th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
I actually dont think it's possible to have a 3 way tie breaker.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
It is, just not one we can win. Only way there is a 3 way tie is if all teams have 2 conference losses. It is not possible (since OSU plays both teams MSU and UM) to have a 3 way tie with all three having one loss.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
Yeah, said it before I'll say it again. We are definitely losing to Maryland based on our posts about "the game" and it scenarios lately.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
The reverse jinx, I see what you're doing
November 17th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Seems like a three way tie is note too likely either going to be tied with oSU with a head to head win, sTATE with head to head L, or be 3rd place again.
random though: is this years state team akin to 2016 UM great season and in the drivers seat that derailed with 2 tough oppnonents at the end
November 17th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
We all know there is potential for a three-way tie for first place in the B1G East division between UM, MSU, and OSU.
The only way there is a 3 way tie is if OSU loses to both MSU & UM. If OSU beats either MSU or UM but loses the other game, they still win the division because they'd only have one conference loss. Their other loss was to Oregon out of conference which doesn't matter for the B1G. I don't see OSU losing both games.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
This isn't quite right. If OSU beats MSU, but loses to UM there is a two way tie between UM and OSU at 8-1 in conference (assuming Michigan beats Maryland). In that scenario, UM has the tie breaker of head to head since they beat OSU.
Edit: In my scenario I guess OSU is technically co-champs with Michigan (similar to UM in 2018) but I don't think anyone gives that type of co-championship when you lose the tie breaker much respect.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Edit: Totally edited my previous post.
I guess it does in fact matter which game OSU loses, huh? This is why I hate this "what if" scenario rehearsal. There are too many moving parts. We just need to cool our anxiety with the what ifs and just let it play out. There are still lots of teams in it and lots of scenarios that could happen. Just enjoy each week.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
lol, touche.
Basically, whichever of UM, OSU, or MSU wins their next two games will win the division. The chances of all three losing a game are very low, so someone will win out and they will be the rightful champions.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Appreciate the effort that went into this post, but the only way we could have a 3-way tie at this point is:
- M loses to Maryland and beats OSU, finishing with two losses.
- OSU loses both their remaining games, finishing with two losses.
- MSU beats OSU and loses to PSU, finishing with two losses.
That seems extremely unlikely.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
And we lose that 3 way tie anyway because MSU has wins over both us and OSU.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
it feels like Michigan is the only team that is unlucky enough to go 11-1 and still not make it to the B1G title games.
11-1 teams ALWAYS go to the B1G Championship. Unless it's Michigan.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Except for 2016 when OSU lost to PSU and finished 11-1 and went to the CFP
November 17th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
A 3 way tie in the west is unlikely and as stated would require us to lose to Maryland. If we do that I'm mad no matter what.
But in the west, the old BCS rule of "always root for chaos" totally applies. So, if Illinois and Nebraska can win out, Purdue drops one of is next 2, and Minnesota loses to Indiana but wins the Axe...ok that's a lot of ridiculous.
But Wisconsin is looking scary right now so I'm rooting for them to get caught. And passed. Come on Scott Frost, beat the Badgers on the road! Come on Biele-...oh dang. Well Brandon Peters can lead the Illini to a win! And if Purdue and Minnesota were to take care of business this weekend, that would lead to a 4-way tie for the Big Ten West heading into Thanksgiving. Don't care who you are, that's just good fun. No matter what Wiscy gets in if they beat Minnesota, so we've all gotta be rowing that boat.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
The original 3way tie scenario was before msu lost to Purdue. In that situation it was assumed msu loses to tOSU but wins the rest, Michigan wins out, and tOSU wins until they lose to Michigan.
Purdue beating msu means they would now theoretically have 2 losses and Michigan and tOSU are deciding it head to head.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
Didn't a three way tie go out the window once MSU lost to Purdue?
If MSU loses this weekend, they'll have two conference losses, OSU will have none. If MSU wins this weekend, they will both have one conference loss, but then Michigan and OSU play each other the following weekend and one of them will have absorbed another loss by that point, giving one of them two conference losses.
There can be a tie for second place, but no three way tie at the top.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
“Just win, baby”
November 17th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
If you look at the standings, you'll see the real opportunity for a 3-way tie is in the B1G West. Two teams are 5-2, two more at 4-3 and Illinois is technically alive at 3-4. I want chaos there and a winner take all situation at the Big House next week.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
The likelihood of a three way tie went out the window with MSU loss to Purdue. Most likely scenario creating a tie is only one of Michigan or MSU beats OSU. If both beat OSU then only MSU and Michigan would be tied. Only a crazy scenario where they both beat OSU and both lose their other two games Maryland and Penn State gives three way tie.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm not even worried about tie breakers. OSU will beat MSU and it will be up to Michigan to beat OSU if they want to head to Indy and beyond.
November 17th, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm not even worried about tie breakers. OSU will beat MSU and it will be up to Michigan to beat OSU if they want to head to Indy and beyond.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
Ill say it again. Best case scenario is
1. Michigan winning out
2. OSU losing all games and MSU losing to PSU
Until OSU starts to crumble we will find very little breathing room. Beyond us winning out that is the single best thing that can happen to our program. If OSU falters our entire program changes.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
What's funny about this is that I had delved deeply into this subject and written up a post about all the tiebreaker possibilities on another forum. I took a final look at it before posting it and realized "oh yeah, actually, that can't really happen the way I had imagined" and hit Delete. I'm glad I did.
November 17th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
These kind of mental gymnastics are fun for some people. I prefer to sit back and just think about :
1 - beating Maryland
2 - beating ohio
November 17th, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
Win both games.
No tie.
Beat Wisconsin.
Win two games in the playoff.
Celebrate.
1-0, 5 times in a row. Starts now.