Tate's future... A poll.
Simple:
Your gut feeling about whether he will break through, stay about the same or regress next fall?
Just curious about the general feeling of confidence in the guy...
i think he'll progress, but still make a lot of mistakes
another question, i suppose, if whether you think tate will be a 4 year starter for UM?
January 11th, 2010 at 5:00 AM ^
He will progress tremendously. With continuity all the way around, look for Tate to have a great season. Still he needs to get some fundamentals down, like ball security and throwing it away. All this comes with experience.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:26 AM ^
I agree...Ball security is #1. Turnovers will kill you. He will get better with experience.
January 11th, 2010 at 5:14 AM ^
I think he'll progress and be a 4 year starter.
Tate struggled in the 2nd half of the season, but he still had a decent year for a true freshman starter. I think the shoulder injury and the lack of protection played a huge role in Tate's performance during the 2nd half of the season. I expect that a healthy Tate, along with a healthy and more experienced offensive line, will lead to progression next season.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:26 AM ^
With a better more experienced O-Line, he should be more comfortable hanging in the pocket and making a pass, rather than running around and freaking out and throwing a pick or fumbling. I think this will be his biggest area of improvement and that we will see that he has progressed nicely next season. Also his shoulder should be better.
January 11th, 2010 at 6:12 AM ^
I think he'll look about the same as he did through the first 4 games. Tate is a pretty complete QB who only needs minor improvements in his ability to read and to throw from the pocket. Look for him to put up a solid 65% completion rating this year, and possibly higher next.
January 11th, 2010 at 6:14 AM ^
I believe Forcier will progress. He's not a person who showed promise in high school and never fulfilled it. He's already played above expectation at the college level.
The players are still young. It would not be an unheard of event for Denard Robinson or a future recruit to surpass him in a few years -- wouldn't it be great for Michigan if one were to. Forcier has a solid head start and I see no solid indication of him relinquishing the lead at this point.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:13 AM ^
I think he will progress this year but I also still see him splitting time with D-Rob, and depending on how good Devin is Devin may see some time as well. I just don't see how he can leave someone as fast a shoelace and as big and fast as D-Rob on the bench. Tate will be better in terms or turnover ratio and his pass completion percentage should be in the 65 to 70% range, and when it does improve along with the offensive line and the defensive secondary not giving up deep balls all the time the wins will go up as well.
January 11th, 2010 at 8:40 AM ^
There is a 100% chance of Redshirt in DG's forecast.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:52 AM ^
DG will be a redshirt sophomore when Tate and Denard go unbeaten as seniors. He'll get a lot of playing time that year (Tate and Denard won't need it), and Michigan will start his redshirt junior season ranked #1 in every poll.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^
I don't know how you can say there's a 100% chance of DG redshirting. Decent chance? Sure. 100%? No way.
Tate was hands down an improvement from '08, but he certainly was far from perfect. Obviously the shoulder injury hurt him, but he has to improve his decision making and ball faking (as has been thoroughly discussed).
Denard was, if we're being honest, almost completely ineffective as a QB. He was intercepted on 12.9% of his passes and lost fumbles on 4.9% of his carries (not to mention at least a few that UM got back) for an overall turnover percentage of 7.6%. Those numbers don't seem that awful now that I've calculated them, but he still seemed like a walking turnover all year and after the initial thrill wore off, he was pretty ineffective.
So... If Tate goes down or doesn't progress, I think it would be hard to sit Gardner on the bench if there was even a glimmer of hope that he could have success. Let's be honest, this regime can't afford to bank Gardner for 2013 and 2014 if he presents even a chance of better success this season.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:37 AM ^
I still think he redshirts. Tate is going to get all of next season to show he can win in the Big Ten. It's quite possible that Gardner could replace him as a redshirt freshman in 2011 if we still have a losing record in the Big Ten in 2010 and it's clear that Tate is limited in what he can do. I mean, at that point, Rodriguez knows he has only two years left (at most) to turn it around and Tate isn't going to get it done. You're right that Rich won't be able to wait -- but I don't think that affects Devin's redshirt status next year.
I agree that Denard isn't really a factor, but for different reasons -- he is the 'wildcat' quarterback and will stay that way. I believe he'll improve dramatically in that role next season and beyond, but I don't see him as the starter.
January 11th, 2010 at 11:52 AM ^
spot on. I don't think RR can afford to gamble with another true freshman QB in 2010. And I don't think he wants to burn Devin's redshirt for five (?) snaps per game in non-critical situations. Hopefully Denard makes decent strides this season with his passing game and taking care of the football. This would make Devin's redshirt a no-brainer.
Tate progressed well when he wasn't injured. He should be better suited for the B10 grind this season if he adds 10 to 15 lb of bulk in the off-season. He has a year of valuable experience under his belt. I think Tate is our guy this season and next season.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
But I like the completion % tossed around. This year the keys are protection and health. We'll be throwing it more this year until the running game develops.
He's going to have a monster season.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:31 AM ^
As he gains experience the game will slow down and he will speed up his decision making. With better protection and more weapons around him he has a chance to be a four year starter but he will have plenty of competition.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:31 AM ^
If he can put together a full season like his early season last year, that'd be stellar. And that said, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:39 AM ^
All of you are crazy if you don't say "he will progress". Tate played the last 8 games injured in one way or another, and was a TRUE freshman. Look at what the QB for Texas (a top 5 program) did for the first half of the game: in short, he looked terrible. If Texas' #2 can look bad after a month of preparation and a year learning and completely healthy, then I'm not too worried about our young QB. Give him time folks; you were all just spoiled by his stellar start last year.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:49 AM ^
Tate will certainly improve and increased competition with DRob can only make him a better player. Playing without injury (as he did early) will also help.
On the plus side, if Tate does get injured this year DRob's read progressions and happy feet will hopefully have improved as the game slows down for him and he will be a viable option to pass the ball as well as run it.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:04 AM ^
I think Tate will improve as well, but he is going to have be able to play through the injuries you spoke of in the future too. He is a small QB and the liklihood that he will have those types of injuries throughout his career is high.
His ability to play at a high level despite injuries will be what determines how successful he is. There can't be excuses. At this level you simply have to get results, and I think he will.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:09 AM ^
He DID play through. Were you not watching last season?
Or do you mean he will have to have no fall off in production at all from injuries?
Because that's unfair.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:25 AM ^
What I mean is that he will have to have significantly less fall off than last year.
My point is that injuries are going to be commonplace for a QB his size, and the one he had last year was, in my medical opinion (assuming the reports of his injury were accurate, which isn't always the case), not a significant one and the fall out shouldn't have been as drastic.
There are some who post on this board that think excuses negate reality, and I am not one of those. We can't continue to use injuries as excuses, they are part of football.
I don't personally think his injury had a lot to do with what we saw during the second half of last season. I think what we saw could more likely be attributed to the fact that he was a freshman and making poor reads.
So in short, I think being a freashman was the main cause for his problems in the second half coupled with the fact that the competition improved a lot as well.
I guess I should retract my entire previous post and say I think he showed a lot of grit playing through his injury, and disagree that had a whole lot to do with the problems he had in the second half of the season.
To be a success in the future and hold onto the starters role for his time at UM he will need to improve in the mental aspects of the game (mostly), and I think he will do that.
January 11th, 2010 at 12:41 PM ^
We could also include Oklahoma and USC to the list of programs that tanked when a true freshman QB was inserted into the lineup. USC went from a possible shot at the NC (with Sanchez at QB) to barely ranked and a trip to the Emerald Nut bowl.
All things considered, Tate did a remarkable job last year and I have nothing but total confidence in his ability to kick ass next year and beyond.
The future is very bright for UM with this kid at the helm.
January 11th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
a redshirt freshman? Your point is made either way though
January 11th, 2010 at 7:43 AM ^
Huge steps forward in the coming year...and I think this is where DG not enrolling early is a great thing. I know Tate does not fear competition, but in terms of defining his role as the leader of the offense, not having to answer a single question about Devin or split reps (that he is already sharing with D-rob) over the next 8 months...I think this is hugely beneficial to Tate's progress and focus.
Physically we can assume he takes steps forward as we all know he was a stranger to the weight room before coming to AA, coupled with getting his shoulder back to 100%, I hope to see some deep balls in the spring game that he throws with relative ease...akin to the deep ball to Hemingway against WMU prior to his shoulder bruise.
O-line improvement (helllooo molk!) and the 2-headed slot monster Roytavious Odotree becoming his go two (intended) guy...Tate has a stellar year (just short of great) and firmly entrenches himself as the unquestioned starter of this team.
January 11th, 2010 at 8:42 AM ^
+1 for Roytavious Odotree... Martoy Roundoms is his brother.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:13 AM ^
Roytavious Odotree for the win!
Is it just me, or does that sound like a Star Trek character?
January 11th, 2010 at 8:24 AM ^
I'm kind of surprised at the assumed ranking of our QB's this year. Most people seem to assume that shoelace will be third. I wouldn't be surprised if shoelace emerges as the best QB. He didn't get spring practice last year. He showed flashes of brilliance and ability. He lead a late TD drive against Iowa and nearly sparked a win.
I believe Tate will still have an edge over shoelace, and I believe Gardner will be amazing after his redshirt year, but I'm not about to discredit Shoelace. If Tate gets injured, it's possible he'll lose the starting job for good.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:16 AM ^
His name is Denard Robinson.
I have no problem with the nickname "Shoelace", but like... once per post. Eesh. We get enough of that from the ESPN announcers.
"And here's Denard Robinson. As we noted on the last three drives, he doesn't tie his shoes, so they call him shoelace."
"Yeah, that's right. He's got velcro in there to keep them on. So that he doesn't have to tie them."
"Exactly, that's why they call him shoelace. 'Cause they're untied."
January 11th, 2010 at 9:58 AM ^
Will be a slot/WR/Wildcat hybrid by his senior season at UM. He lacks the skills to throw the ball and that makes him far too predictable. We saw in the TUOS game where his role will be in the following years. He'll still play some QB this season as they will try to redshirt DG but if for some reason they can't then you'll see him start getting more plays at other positions. In further years when you have Tate and redshirted DG on the QB dc then you will see Robinson all over the field. I'd like to see him return kicks ala Josh Cribbs.
January 11th, 2010 at 1:04 PM ^
how you can say he lacks skills to throw the ball. He was a freshman with no real QB coaching in HS, he redshirts in almost any other situation. Unlike Tate who had all the coaching in the world it seems. He has an arm on him, and can make the throws. He needs coaching in his decision making and recognizing defenses. I don't consider this a lack of skills needed to throw a ball. I consider it lack of skills, experience and coaching necessary to be a QB at this level. I think Denard being coached up and learning to be a QB instead of an athlete taking snaps is a nightmare for DCs around the league.
Maybe we mean the same thing and are just wording differently.
I dont know if he will ever be this but if not I think he ends up all over the field like you say. Esp if Tate shows that he is the man this year. Denard is too good of an athlete to have sitting on the bench.
January 11th, 2010 at 4:11 PM ^
ANY true freshman can be expected to improve his sophomore year--so to answer the OP the answer is that it's a lock Tate will improve. Will he improve enough is a better question. I think he will, but couldn't possibly venture a guess as to whether he'll start all 4 years. Clearly DG has the potential to challenge him later in their careers.
As to Denard, I agree with this rebuttal to his "passing skills" comment. Anyone that flat out says that a true freshman QB "lacks" the passing skills to succeed HIS WHOLE CAREER is really close to not knowing what they are talking about. When I read a line like that it brings back bad memories of that dude who always says Tate is too small, too slow, and too weak to ever succeed at Michigan. When in fact, given true freshman status he already succeeded last year. I've got to stop now, that ignorance is annoying me all over again...
January 11th, 2010 at 8:33 AM ^
Yep, it will be competitive.
But this will bring out his best.
If he avoids injury - he will light it up.
January 11th, 2010 at 8:39 AM ^
Between the shoulder injury and the "Molk-lessness" he had a long Big Ten season. More importantly, after the ND game, everybody had seen pretty much what to defend for the rest of the season.
Tate's got skills and moxie, with a full 18 months under his belt, he will also have a much expanded playbook.
As for how he will line up against Devin and Denard -- we'll have to see. I think Devin's chances are unfortunately diminished now that he will not be able to enroll early. Besides, who wants to go through a third season in a row with a QB in the first year of this offense?
The first one of the three able to fake a hand off as well as say Juice, is going to get a lot more looks. (Steve Threet faked handoffs far better than Tate or Denard did.) We were seriously missing the element of surprise in the conference schedule. We were not fooling any defenses when Denard stepped into the huddle, and Tate was pretty readable after the first three games as well. This is where Denard could surpass Tate. If he can master this, imagine a defense trying to figure out if Denard is keeping, or Vincent Smith is going to emerge with the ball?
January 11th, 2010 at 8:46 AM ^
One would have to think he will cut down on turnovers in the coming year, and that would equate to a great deal of improvement just by itself. I also look forward to having fewer long stretches where the offense is completely inept at moving the ball. If just these two things can be fixed, I see an improvement of 2-3 games in the overall record.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:03 AM ^
Tate will have a great year if a running back emerges from the spring. He will also have to have the protection from the O-line. If those two emerge watch out! Easy 3 game improvement. DR will have to touch the ball more out of the backfield or slot and maybe a kickoff or a punt return or two. That would mean DG will not redshirt.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:16 AM ^
Why does that mean that Gardner will not redshirt?
January 11th, 2010 at 9:06 AM ^
after winning two Heisman trophies he will go to the NFL as the #1 overall pick after his junior season.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:07 AM ^
...the ND game. Why? Most likely his brother Jason left A2 after the ND game because UM didn't accept him in grad school. Having Jason around might have been the calming affect that would have kept Tate focused. So, blame the admissions dept on UM football's bad season! :P
January 11th, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^
i'd say this is the biggest reason for tate's dropoff in productivity.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:30 AM ^
Think of Denard's as the 'wildcat' offense and Tate's as the standard. I believe Rodriguez made a decision to develop them both going forward when he saw just how gifted a runner Shoelace is. Having a separate wildcat package is increasingly common these days, even in the NFL -- Bill Parcells drafted Pat White just to run the Dolphins' wildcat. Rich's stroke of brilliance was the following thought: "We're going to develop a wildcat package from the start, in tandem with our main spread offense. By next year, it will be good. By the year after that, it will be great."
Ten years from now, half of Division I will be doing this.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:13 AM ^
Fuck. Shit. Up.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:35 AM ^
Tate make big strides in staying in the pocket. In high school, he learned some bad "run like hell and make something happen" habits. Some of these plays are really big gains because he's buying time. In most, however, the pocket really hasn't collapsed. The safest and best place for his launch point is 5 yards behind center. If the integrity of the pocket crumbles, that is one thing. However, if he just takes off when they are providing him enough space to get the ball off, it is counter-productive. Learning the difference between when to take off and when to step up into the pocket will be Tate's big challenge this year. How well he does this could mean the difference between a good and bad year for him/us.
He's got tons of good coaches around him, a whole spring/summer to watch film and break down good and bad things from last year, and some new guys coming in to push him. This should be the perfect storm for his improvement, and it'll be fun to watch. I am just glad to be starting a QB that has taken a snap in college this year. Go Blue!!!
January 11th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^
I'm not certain you are wrong either, but it has been something I have thought about for a while.
Tate is listed at 6'1", but many say he is closer to 6' even. The guys in front of him are a lot taller and the defenders have their arms in the air trying to knock passes down.
I think Tate scrambling is likely to open up passing lanes because he can't see when he is in the pocket, so staying in the pocket for long periods may be more counter-productive than moving outside of it.....Just MHE.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:45 AM ^
I thought it was pretty obvious last season that he was by far more accurate while running for the edge, even on deep routes.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:42 AM ^
where's the poll? (that's what she said)
January 11th, 2010 at 9:59 AM ^
hmm i can't decide. is it cool if i get back to you in about 7 - 8 months?
January 11th, 2010 at 10:03 AM ^
No. You must choose now, and we WILL hold you to your choice.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^
Tate improves if the running game improves. Last year he looked good early and that's a combination of things. Schedule, Molk, and team was fresh. As the year progressed UM looked wore out and was manhandeled in the 2nd half of most games. So much goes into the success of Tate and UM but it will come down to execution, depth and if can we compete physically the entire season?
January 11th, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^
He will progress greatly. I believe he will play the entire season as well as, or even better than, the way he played the first 4 games last season.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^
I think it's reasonable to expect him to be noticeably better; most talented guys do so in their second season. But what does that mean for the team as a whole? If our defense regresses next season—not an impossible thing—then Tate could have a great season and we could still finish with a losing record. If our defense somehow, against great odds, manages to play better than last year, then simple incremental improvement from Tate will probably be enough for 8 wins. I'd much rather have the latter.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:45 AM ^
This is a poll right? I didn't see "Bright" as an option but that is what I would like to vote.