Superstition OT No Politics: Obama's Bracket has Michigan Final Four

Submitted by MGoneBlue on March 18th, 2021 at 9:50 AM

Bad news everyone.  Obama's famously-bad-at-predicting-the-final-four bracket has Michigan to the Final Four.  Enjoy our Sweet Sixteen exit.

On the bright side, he has Illinois losing in the championship, so you can pencil them in for a round 2 upset.

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1372533275709820936

UMFanatic96

March 18th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^

His daughter is a student at Michigan. I'm sure that's the basis for this. 

EDIT: His Elite Eight is also all the 1 and 2 seeds minus Alabama and his Final Four is just the 1 seeds. 

1VaBlue1

March 18th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^

Chalk never holds in this tournament.  If you find yourself selecting all the 1's and 2's, well, you aren't applying any logic.  Sounds like he has a turrible bracket based on name recognition and lack of time to have actually watched the teams involved (which, coincidentally, would also conflict my bracket, were I to have one...).  He gone lose his money.

LJ

March 18th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^

Au contraire, my friend.  Picking all 1 seeds is probably the most logic-based decision you could make.  They reach the final four at double the rate of 2 seeds, and almost four times the rate of 3 seeds.  I'm sure a person who just picks the 1 seeds all the time gets more final four entries correct over a long period of time than a person who picks and chooses among other teams.  Here's a good way to test it: do you get 40% of your final four picks right in your brackets?  Because if you just picked chalk, that's what you would be getting.

The reasons not to just pick chalk are not because chalk is illogical.  Instead it's (1) just picking chalk is no fun, and (2) while picking chalk is a good way to do well in a pool, it's probably not a good way to win the pool, since you need to differentiate yourself from other brackets and probably be the one person backing a surprisingly successful team or two in order to win.  And since usually the only rewards in a pool are for finishing in the top few, it's worth it to take risks, even though that means your overall expected point total is lower than it would be if you just picked chalk.

L'Carpetron Do…

March 18th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^

Eh, I feel like O always picks a tame bracket. I recall other years his bracket was a lot of chalk, not a lot of madness - come on Barry O! But, I'm psyched he picked Michigan and I imagine, with his daughter at U of M and his Chicago background, he's a huge Juwan Howard fan. 

MGoBlue96

March 18th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

I know there is alot of doom and gloomers on here after the Livers injury, but UM to the FF is still a very reasonable position to take with the potential matchups in the region. Of all the teams in the region I would still give UM the best odds to reach the FF, though they are not as high as they were with Livers. Honestly on paper it looks like a pretty chalky type of tournament to me with the matchups overall, with probably all 1 or 2 seeds in the FF.