SuperBook puts out line for Ohio St/Michigan game: Ohio St -13
This was a couple days ago and this is obviously going to change based on how tomorrow's games play out, but I found it interesting...
We'll get a good idea what it will be with the major books on Sunday afternoon when CircaSports is the first to put out their lines, and then the major books often times will follow pretty closely in the evening time with a line within a couple of points of that either way
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
If OSU blows Penn State out, that line will probably go up to around 15. If Penn State wins or keeps it a one-score game, it will probably come down to around 10.
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
Ohio St this season has been a lot like the Pats the last 18 years where the Books have been taking a hit each week with all the money , mostly public, on Ohio St each time but they just keep on covering. I guess up until last week against Rutgers...
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
Yeah, OSU is 8-2 ATS this year. I think their point spreads are being inflated slightly by what you are saying - a heavy public team that just keeps on covering.
That 8-2 record is tied for the best ATS record amongst all FBS teams. U-La-La and OK State are also 8-2.
OSU's only ATS losses were FAU (favored by 27, won by 24) and Rutgers (favored by 52, won by 35).
They are the hot hand and they are hard to bet against - but 18.5 tomorrow and 13 vs. Michigan both seem a bit too high. We'll see.
(FWIW, on the other side of the spectrum, MSU is 2-8 ATS. But several teams are worse. Nebraska is among 4 schools with only 1 victory ATS. The Huskers are 1-9. Slightly better than the dead last Akron Zips, who are 1-10, and got that 1 win just earlier this week vs. Miami)
November 22nd, 2019 at 7:41 PM ^
Except they're not inflated and the proof is in the results. I have been betting seriously for over a decade and have never power rated a team as high as this year Buckeyes team
November 22nd, 2019 at 8:08 PM ^
I know their power rankings are sky high.
And these Buckeyes might be the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers or 1972 USC Trojans. A team that never has a sustained challenging moment, not even once, on their way to a National Title.
But those sort of teams are once in a generation for a reason. The exception and not the rule. Even 2001 Miami (BC, Va Tech) and 2004 USC (Cal, UCLA) were challenged, and had close games.
If one is betting OSU to cover 18.5 and 13 in these next 2 games - one is essentially betting that they will go the entire regular season without one game like that.
We'll see, but I tend to doubt that happens. It's still a team with a first-year coach, a first-year starting QB. Day and Fields don't have the pedigree that Osborne and Frazier had in 1995, another reason to doubt these are the 1995 Huskers reincarnated.
November 22nd, 2019 at 9:23 PM ^
Totally agree, right now they paper tigers.
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
If youn have watched Ohio State at all this year, the first team starters have not even played in the fourth quarter and usually just the first series of second half. GET REAL! The Buckeyes have the best offense, defense and special teams when you look at combined stats. Chase Young is back along with 4 other starters on defense. This game won't even be close.
November 23rd, 2019 at 8:45 AM ^
And Nitty just explained how maybe two teams in the last 50 years have coasted its way that easily to a title, this OSU team will either be challenged and show something they haven't had to yet, or they're about to take that L to somebody, hopefully to UofM, or PSU or both :)
November 23rd, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
The 1969 Buckeye team steamrolled through its competition until one notable Game.
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^
Username definitely checks out
November 23rd, 2019 at 5:30 AM ^
We know the lines are based on exacting criteria. But if people didn't they they had insights about such spreads they wouldn't bet. A rising Michigan, a game at the Big House, and some perceived vulnerabilities that OSU brings to the game make me think that Michigan keeps this game closer than that.
One further thing that gives me hope for a fun game: I think that Harbs and Co. know that they have to play a pretty daring game to have a chance to win. Seems very unlikely that the game plan is conservative.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:38 PM ^
Osu has failed to cover the last 6 years though in the game before Michigan. Smart money says OSU doesn't cover this week.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
Not so sure about that. PSU is banged up (might be down Hamler and their starting center), and Franklin has a pretty rough record on the road against quality opposition.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:46 PM ^
I'm not saying PSU will win - but PSU hasn't been this big an underdog in ANY game in the Franklin era.
I know OSU looks like the DeathStar, but that stat in itself makes me think PSU is the value play. PSU has certainly had worse teams than this one under Franklin.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^
I'll give you UM +10
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^
Depends on what Michigan does too. I don't think it'll come down to 10 unless Michigan blows out IU and OSU struggles with PSU (the latter of which, I don't think it is going to happen).
November 22nd, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^
Osu by 31 tomorrow
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
Holy shit that's insulting.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
To who?
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
POTY material here.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
The game is usually decided by one or two scores, with some noteworthy exceptions. We probably shouldn't have been favored in 2018, but to have us as a 2 TD dog, at home, seems crazy to me.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
Then take the points and place your wager.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
I was just about to post this same thing. Hatter seems super confident, so he should definitely bet UM to cover or win.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Gambling is the one vice I've never really been into.
When you buy drugs you get to feel good immediately, or at the time of your choosing. With betting, you pay money now for the chance to feel better later? Or feel worse?
I prefer a sure thing if I'm spending my own money.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
I agree with you about gambling. It's not my thing, either. I have a bunch of friends who bet on sports so often. They win more than lose, but I just cannot take that risk.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
They say they win more than they lose, but those casinos don't build themselves.
November 22nd, 2019 at 7:27 PM ^
Haha! I was going to say the same thing. I like to bet and I definitely talk more about the wins more than the losses. I usually lose more than I win, but I’m a small time for entertainment bettor.
the OSU line makes sense, considering we were pretty even with PSU. Home field is a six point swing with switching home fields. OSU at home vs PSU -19, at Michigan-13.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
But when you win, you feel so good about yourself because of the copious amount of time that you have spent observing, analyzing, digesting & forming really strong opinions. And then you get even more drugs.
November 22nd, 2019 at 6:36 PM ^
I see what your POV is, but from a gambler's perspective (or any addict's POV) it's a misunderstanding.
Feel good now vs. Feel bad later, is how a "rational" (in quotes, as no one is truly rational) person would think.
But for gamblers--and all addicts alike--the payoff is in the "Now". Gambling is about the thrill, aka the stiumlation, aka the "hit" (thus the cormorbidity with drugs/alcohol abuse). It's not about the money, the sports, the skill, etc.
The "high" is not found in the actual winning or the losing. They language they use is, sure, but as crackheads stories (rationalizations) are irrelevant, so is the gambler's story (rationalization). The "hit" comes from the thrill itself (and anticipation of the thrill), the "moment" of being in the middle of the "gamble" itself, or the anticipation, e.g. "Gimme just one more chance! The Jets are going to pull the upset!" It's what happens when you fry your reward-circuitry. You become totally de-sensitized from over-use. Don't believe me, just fast for a full day and the next day eat one single egg, notice how phenomenal it tastes and how full you feel. We acclimate, no matter how much or how little.
The general theory is that the high from gambling (and all substance abuse), is utilized to fill the lived, conscious experience with highs/lows/stimulation and stress/assurance that the addict would otherwise get in living their ACTUAL, real life--which is why so many cliches of the deadbeat parent exist, they are avoiding their ACTUAL life, and retreating into a fantasy life, but still require the normal ebbing and flowing "experiences" of life, which they achieve through their addictions/fantasies (fantasies, because they are not confronting ANY of their reality, and thus live a life in their head unchecked), instead of confronting their actual life. Addiction is about distraction from reality.
Time-until-payoff is huge in addiction. The stories that come after the fact, are largely irrelevant.
If it was really about the gamble of being happy in the future, they would be investing in stocks, or growing a vegetable garden, building a deck, buying a house, or raising children (kidding!).
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
Doesn't seem crazy at all to me, it is the best team in the country that hasn't lost by less than 3 scores
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
to whom*
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
I guess you figure Ohio St is favored by 18.5 now vs Penn St but it being at OSU. Michigan and Penn St are ranked very close to each other, and then subtract about 5 points for the nice homefield advantage Michigan has had this season. Just my two cents.
If Michigan wins comfortably tomorrow, I see the line opening closer to 10 on Sunday. Just a guess, though.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
That's some bullshit.
I generally don't think players need bulletin board material, but this may be an exception.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
If this team needs bulletin board material against an OSU team they haven't beaten in forever, they are doomed no matter what the betting line is.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
It's reality of you watch both teams closely.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
Thanks. I hadn't noticed.
?
November 23rd, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^
No problem
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
All your reality are belong to us.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
Every year since 2011 at this point in the season I’ve convinced myself THIS IS THE YEAR we turn the tables on OSU and feel very confident. This year is different, not confident enough to take 13pts. Which means TNIS IS THE YEAR
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
But this is the year.
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
It's gotta be the year. Almost any other time under Harbaugh if we beat OSU we would have went to Indy, not this year of course so it has to be our year!
November 22nd, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
Throwback machine:
Bless you boys, this is the year!
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
Yikes. Almost a two TD dog. At home.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
Disrespekt
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
Ryan Day has never beaten a Top 10 team.
(Saying that now because it might be my last day to do so.)
Ryan Day has never beaten a ranked team on the road.
(That's the ticket!)
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
That's a lot of points for a home rivalry game. Then again, if you consider last year's game, you can understand the large spread. Many people probably think Day, with his history going against Brown every day in practice at BC, and with Mattison's help, will have Brown's D and typical adjustments figured out.
Stating the obvious, it will be major key to the game if one side will be able to stay one step ahead of the other.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
Good. Make us huge underdogs, and let the talking heads blow smoke. And then we shove it right up their ass.
Fuck them and the Buckeyes! Go Blue!
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^
We obviously smoke the same strain of weed.
There is no rational reason for me to be optimistic about the game this year, but I feel like we're going to win it.