Steven Threet vs. Tate Forcier
Ok, this argument has gone on so long in another thread, I can't even follow it anymore. I created this one to start over. Everyone who wants to argue this, come with your argument for or against Steven Threet over Tate Forcier (or Beaver). Here's my argument to start.
Now, to preface this, I like Threet, think he's a good kid, that works hard. I just don't think being smart will help his ability. I've said that the star rankings once you get to the 4 and 3 stars, are blurry sometimes. If you look at who they've been offered by, it will give you a better feel for what coaches think of their ability. Here are Steven Threet's numbers and offers:
4 Star QB 9th ranked pro style QB in the country. Looks good so far right, well here's the problem. Here's the top 10 quarterback's that year:
1: Jimmah Clausen - Notre Dame
2: Ryan Mallett - Michigan
3: John Brantley - Florida
4: Mike Paulus - North Carolina
5: Peter Lalich - Virgina
6: Pat Bostick - Pittsburgh
7: Jarrett Lee - LSU
8: Robert Marve - Miami
9: Steven Threet - Georgia Tech
10:BJ Coleman - Tennessee
Threet had offers from:
Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, N.C. State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Central Michigan, Miami of Ohio
So tell me how he compares to Tate Forcier who has Michigan coaches and receivers comparing his arm to Chad Henne, with offers from major programs across the country. A kid that runs a 4.5 40.
My argument to the accuracy claim is that there will be more options with a kid (tate) who knows when to run, and when not to. A kid that, at the college level, is fast enough to make defenses respect him.
I like Threet, but he doesn't have the talent to keep his job for all of next year.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:08 PM ^
Threet has shown the ability to find the open receiver and not throw into bad coverages (throwing TO the open receiver has been a problem though) as a redshirt freshman. He's clearly, when protected even slightly, demonstrated being comfortable with the speed of the game, and has moved well in the pocket to avoid being sacked.
If he can just stop overthrowing every ball I feel he's a really good fit for this offense and I'd be happy to watch him start next season.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:37 PM ^
Threet is "a really good fit for this offense".
This is sarcastic, right?
November 30th, 2008 at 5:22 PM ^
three star, four star doesnt matter. Tate already has more ability than threet does for this offense. Tate ran a spread like offense in high school and will have a good idea how to run RR when he gets here in JANUARY. He'll have a lot of time to study RR offense because hes coming early and to be ready to start next year.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:10 PM ^
...at least outperformed Marve and Lee this year.....i think.
My take: Remember how many of us were drinking the kool aid back in the spring that a kid like Feagin may take over half way through the year a la Pat White?
In actuality, we'll see that play out next season....the question is will it be Beaver or Tate.....I just dont see RR keeping a talented kid on the bench. If he could be swayed to go with Sheridan over Threet, then if either of these recruits can come close to living up to their billing, they will play. A lot.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:19 PM ^
Why is everybody assuming that Forcier is better than Threet? Why are we even assuming Forcier is better than Beaver? Give me game college experience over some "4 star" high school player any day. After looking back several years at some of these 4 and 5 star recruits and how they do absolutely nothing when they get into the mix, i'm going to assume that the kid that has seen the field in front of 110,000 is much better than a high school kid. I'm just so f'ing sick of all this hyped up ranking BS.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:52 PM ^
Several FCS teams played in front of 100,000 people this year (since no one plays in front of 110,000 I took the liberty of appropriately lowering the number). Are you really saying that you would take them and their experience over someone with the talent of either Forcier or Beaver? You would have taken one of them over Tebow coming in as a freshman? That is afterall what you said by saying "[I]'m going to assume that the kid that has seen the field in front of [100,000] is much better than a high school kid." Come no now, that's a bit simplistic, don't you think?
November 24th, 2008 at 10:11 PM ^
I would absolutely take someone with game time experience over a highly touted recruit IN THE SAME SYSTEM any day. I'm going to wager that Threet starts next year and Beaver or Forcier gets mixed into the fold, slowly with limited plays and gets built up from there. I'm not saying they won't be good, but right now people are arguing over nothing.
My point was more to say that stars next to a recruits name doesn't mean a damn thing. Sam Bradford was a three star, he turned out well. So did Max Hall (2 star).
Sorry for about the attendance thing, for whatever reason I thought Michigan held the record at 112,118.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:48 PM ^
I completely agree with you about the stars. That was part of my point, if i didn't get that across well enough I apologize.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:06 PM ^
You preach it all the time. I was merely reiterating that fact because we get people on here all the time that say they saw a high school kid play a game on TV and he was a beast. I just hate speculation that's all.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:23 PM ^
And I wasn't talking about the number of stars either. Did I mention that anywhere in any of my analysis of this subject? The answer is no. Hell, my analysis has more to do with Threet's shortcomings and my knowledge of the system than either Forcier's or Beaver's subjective abilities, but obviously I don't get the benefit of the doubt on that one like you're so willing to give to others... Awesome.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:22 PM ^
I hear ya. This is all a guessing game until it actually happens. In Shavodrick Beavers mind he's the starter. Tate's mind, he is. Same with Threet. I don't want to attempt to get into Sheridan's mind, who knows what's going on in there...."so the guys with the same colored shirts as me, those are who I should throw to?"
November 25th, 2008 at 9:49 AM ^
It's really shitty to take pot shots at Sheridan. He's a former walk-on. He was put into a situation that was more than he could handle, but he did everything he could. Give the kid a fucking break.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:44 PM ^
Did you mean FBS? I don't think any FCS teams play in front of near 100,000 people. More like 10,000.
November 25th, 2008 at 1:44 AM ^
I'm pretty sure he was saying that there are FCS teams that have experience playing the likes of Florida or LSU once a year and their players therefore technically have more experience playing in front of 110,000 (sic) than a guy coming right out of high school, and that experience is always 1000% more important than what recruiting rankings would otherwise indicate, even if you're comparing Matt Barkley (who has no experience but is projected to be excellent) to Armanti Edwards (who has tons of experience but the only good team he's ever beaten is Michigan), which is obviously pretty tardo.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:28 PM ^
Forcier or Beaver they have more options and a larger playbook. plus when nothing is there they can run to get the first down.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:52 PM ^
Because running for a first down hasn't exactly been a given this year for anyone.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:55 PM ^
That would change in large part just by having a quarterback that is a credible running and passing threat (or even just one of those) because it would make the defense respect it.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:57 PM ^
Is it really true that Forcier has Henne-like arm strength? If he does that is a ridiculous combination with his speed. If he can be anywhere close to as accurate as he was in HS he can be great college QB.
November 25th, 2008 at 1:46 AM ^
If I remember correctly, it was Fred Jackson who made this claim. Fred Jackson is obviously a smart guy and a pretty damn good RB coach, but I'm not sure I'd trust his evaluation on a quarterback. But then again, Mr. VanHaaren (did I spell that right?) seems to know pretty much everything under the sun about the recruits, so I'm tempted to take his word for it.
November 24th, 2008 at 9:58 PM ^
I think there are two main reasons why Forcier or Beaver will probably end up being the better option next year.
1. Speed. I think the biggest display of why this will be huge is Threet's looooong run early in the season, whatever game that was. He ran a long way, but eventually got tracked down. I think in that situation Forcier or Beaver takes it to the house. Just like cpt20 just said, they always have the ability to run it for a first down, and that frees up a lot of other things. Too often this year with Threet and Sheridan there didn't have to be a defender waiting just in case they ran, because it wasn't that big a threat.
2. Experience in this type of system. Like Tom said, Threet's a smart kid, but making decisions on the run doesn't seem to be his strong suit. I obviously haven't seen Forcier or Beaver play in person, but from the videos it looks like both of them (especially Forcier) are very good at scrambling while keeping their eyes downfield. That's what makes a dual threat QB so dangerous, IMO. Even if he starts to scramble, you need to continue to cover all of the receivers. Once again, there were a lot of times this season where the pocket collapsed, and it seemed to me that if Threet wasn't getting sacked, he was tucking the ball completely and running for 2-5 yards. With Forcier or Beaver, those plays can consistently turn into larger gains.
This is all assuming that they're prepared to play at the college level, which we won't know for some time yet. I hope they can. It'd be nice to have an established freshman quarterback (or two) that will be around for another year after Threet is gone... makes building the rest of the team an easier task.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:03 PM ^
for the credit.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:46 PM ^
i totally agree.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:23 PM ^
all this speculation about who will be the game 1 starter is making me head hurt. i'm just taking solace in the fact that the qb play SHOULD be improved regardless of who it is because of a full year of experience for threet or better fitting skill set with forcier/beaver.
OT for TomVH: any word from Mr. Lewan about his weekend visit to Minnesota and his next steps? I'm assuming the Gophers throwing up a goose egg to Iowa's 55 couldn't have made the best impression...
November 25th, 2008 at 12:07 AM ^
I read that he really liked it. I'll talk to him and find out. But remember his dad played at Minnesota, so I think, and they haven't said this, it's me speculating, but I think they're the team to beat right now. I'll let you know though.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:12 AM ^
i'm going to pretend i didn't read your first and third sentences and say thanks for your hard work!!
November 25th, 2008 at 12:21 AM ^
I just read a rivals article saying the O-Line coach, Phil Meyer, for Minnesota just resigned.
This could be the edge Michigan needs with Taylor Lewan.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:26 AM ^
all the LB coaches of all the schools that offered Jelani Jenkins could resign soon? Thanks Tom.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:29 PM ^
Threet's just not elusive enough. Had he been, he could have avoided multiple injuries.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:39 PM ^
1) Same height as Drew Brees who is currently torching the Packers on MNF. Evidence here: http://www.qbforce.com/main.html
2) Also on the page is the 'Golden Gun' award for accuracy.
3) 50+ offers don't lie (That is a TON Threet had like 7)
4) Think Chad Henne arm and accuracy on Sam McGuffie
5) Threet repeatedly, repeat, repeatedly missed (and we're talkin' by YARDS not inches) open receivers and 15 yard throws - like bubble screens and long hand offs that are essential to this offense. It seems someone very accurate with a strong arm could make these throws immediately. We saw that these are effective when completed right like non-death sheridan @ Minnesota.
6) I watched part of the televised game Beaver played in and he was wild man, wild. definitely would not start over threet and will probably be third on the depth chart. Most schools recruited him at receiver as opposed to QB. Tate is a much much more polished passer right now on video.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:44 PM ^
Threet's mechanics were terrible all year and he never showed any accuracy on simple throws, like bubble screens. Supposedly Forcier is an extremely accurate passer HS. Even if Forcier is just as good as Threet in terms of accuracy, he will start ahead of him because of Forcier's speed and ability to throw on the run.
I think Forcier starts from Day 1.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:55 PM ^
Short throws is what really killed threet. His accuracy on the short swing passes to running backs and wr's was not good at all. those passes require almost pinpoint accuracy cause the whole point is to hopefully hit the target in stride so they can catch the ball, turn up field and hopefully kick it into overdrive real quick. When the target has to slowdown, stop or dive for the ball it kills the timing on the play.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:54 PM ^
didn't bother to read any other comments, but i think threet will get the start in the opener and from there we'll see if he keeps it. forcier will probably be seeing significant playing time by the end of the non-conference schedule. but also, why will our #1 freshman qb be forcier. why not beaver? maybe he'll have a good camp or something
November 25th, 2008 at 12:04 PM ^
1. is he really thin and will probably need to redshirt to put on some more weight.
2. He has been hurt for most of this season, so its pretty unlikely that he will be ready to go.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:27 AM ^
All throws seemed to kill Threet this year.
Tate has been groomed to be a qb his entire life. He's always working on his mechanics, and they are flawless. He's got a very quick release, and has great arm strength to go along with that accuracy. He also able to make time with his feet. The only time Threet was able to make was the time it took him to hit the ground.
Shavodrick had surgery on his arm and will be extremely limited in practice. Threet/Sheridan have had an entire year to develop in this system. Let's just face it, this offense is not for them. It is a great fit for Tate though. He will be the starter from Day 1. I think it would be a major mistake if he didn't.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:30 AM ^
that RR will give the job to the guy that deserves it. I like that he has no problem benching upperclassmen that have apparently been beat out by underclassmen. Experience is not the be-all end-all.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:28 AM ^
He should retain the job until he loses it on the field. If he can't be a 60% passer next year - I'm not saying that is likely, just saying that's my target for him (I think it would singlehandedly bring the offense up to respectability) - you move on and start trying the freshmen. But because of his experience, Threet deserves the first chance to show that he can be a solid QB next year.
__________
Tom: I think the point about offers rather than star rankings has merit - good point. However, in this particular case, I don't think looking at offers is an apples-to-apples comparison since *only* pro-style teams would offer Threet while both pro-style and spread teams would offer Forcier.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:42 AM ^
You don't think he's lost it based on his lackluster performances the entire season??? RR's going to go with the guy that is best suited for the offense and is the long-term solution. I'm sorry, but Threet is not that guy. I respect him for as hard as he worked this past year, but he doesn't fit the offense.
November 25th, 2008 at 12:57 AM ^
You realize the coaches can't comment on recruits, right?
November 25th, 2008 at 7:27 AM ^
Threet's progress was hindered by the coaching change, he transfered to michigan thinking that he would learn the pro offence. unlicky for him he would have played in either paul johnson's system or RR's system. the kid would have been good if he started later in his carrer.
November 25th, 2008 at 8:59 AM ^
There is evidence that RR will hand over the reigns to the best guy, regardless of experience. Wasn't Pat White a true freshman starter when they beat Georgia in the BCS game? Not saying that any of our guys will be Pat White (or need to be) but RR has had success w/ young players.
November 25th, 2008 at 9:02 AM ^
Remember RR started Sheridan over Threet against Utah. What can we take away from this? Any theories?
November 25th, 2008 at 9:11 AM ^
1. Either Sheridan showed more promise in practice and earned the start, RR valued mobility over all else (unlikely bc Feagin didn't play), or RR had some specific schemes tailored to Utah that Sheridan seemed to do better with.
2. It shows that RR will start whoever earns it. This means no undeserved deference to experienced players and people are pushed to earn their PT, which is a good thing. In the long run it should produce competitive players and attract the most competitive types to our side.
November 25th, 2008 at 11:33 AM ^
No. It means RR loves little scrappy white guys. Guys with a lot of heart.
That was supposed to be a joke.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:18 AM ^
My biggest fear with the transition to the spread is that the player that RichRod calls the "most important on the field," the QB, will be regularly exposed to Big 10 sized defensive linemen and linebackers intent on killing him.
Keeping that QB functional, let alone at 100%, is unlikely over the course of the season. Getting two a point where we have two or three guys capable of truly running this offense is the goal.
Maybe Forcier's physical tools help compensate for one less year of experience and running the Michigan system. Either way, having two guys who are ready to go, and capable of making good things happen would be great. Maybe they aren't carbon copies of each other, but that isn't a bad thing either.
As to who is starting... If we start WINNING I don't care who is STARTING.
November 25th, 2008 at 2:35 PM ^
However, it can be done. Rick Leach, for instance, survived four years starting as a (mostly) running quarterback.
Pat White's also done it so gar at WVU, and I really don't think there's anything all that special about the Big Ten versus the Big East in terms of defense.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:38 AM ^
My only point in "arguing against Forcier" has been this:
-All virtually any of us has seen of Forcier has been highlight reels. Highlight reels are, by definition, the best a player has to offer. To us, Forcier does nothing but dodge tacklers in the backfield en route to throwing a 60 yard TD. We don't see him airmail a throw over a guy's head or double-hop a swing pass in his highlight films.
-None of us are talent evaluators, but we play one on the internet. Our opinion (and I include my own in this statement, so I'm not flaming anyone) is useless.
-We HAVE seen Threet. Threet, pre-injury showed a good arm with accuracy issues. After his injury, he had more accuracy issues, but lost the "good arm" part of the equation. He has, in my opinion (again, see above - worthless) shown pretty good judgement this year. His "moxie", I think, is unquestioned. Having seen QB's like Henne and Navarre dramatically improve in the accuracy department from Freshman year to Senior year, I feel like accuracy is something that CAN be improved.
-Finally, I merely look at the history of freshman QB's. Henne is virtually the only successful true freshman QB I can think of. Michael Vick, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford were successful as Reshirt-Freshmen.
Finally, Tom, I find your analysis a bit reductive. You diminish Threet's ranking by showing the QB's that were in his class - most of whom haven't yet played, and those that have haven't stood out. The simple fact is, Forcier's class could pan out the same way. We don't know that he's ranked behind world-beaters or busts. ALSO, the fact that the vast majority of the QB's in Threet's class haven't been called upon to start prevents us from judging how good they really are. Most teams don't start RS Freshman QB's. The fact that many on the list haven't started yet isn't an indictment.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:41 AM ^
for being like the most accurate HS passer? Yeah, it doesn't always translate to college blah blah blah but your worry that his highlight reel is not representative seems unfounded.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:43 AM ^
No highlight reel, in the history of highlight reels, is representative of what a player does on a play-by-play basis. This is not an indictment of Forcier.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:47 AM ^
I am calling into question your claims that maybe Forcier secretly flubs swing passes and has a friend named Tacopants. It's hard to square that with his accuracy awards.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:52 AM ^
If you're going to argue that a highlight package isn't the best he has to offer, I don't know what to say.
My point is this - this year, at least 35% of this throws have gone for incompletions, and more have been little dump-offs. We've seen none of these. We've seen his very best throws.