State of M Basketball
As the year of infinite pain continues and nears its end, what can we look forward to with basketball?
After the MSU game at home this year - Michigan's last real chance to get a quality win and make an NCAA run - I told my friend that could have been a bigger loss than football's to Appalachian St. The effects of that loss, at least too me seemed entirely predictable - the beginning of a huge step backward for the program (specifically student attendance).
The MSU game was heartbreaking - a last second loss with more students in attendance than probably since the Fab Five days.
Now M Hoops is looking at the prospect of coming back next year with excitement gone, our All-Big 10 stud gone to the NBA, and the possibility of our All-Big 10 wing gone to the NBA. Student ticket sales will probably plummet and next year seems like we'd be thrilled to be at .500 at the end of the season.
No real questions or great insights here, but I just don't know what to think. Last year was amazing. This year must have been the most frustrating and disappointing season in a long time. Ground will break May 2 on the practice facility and that's obviously a huge step forward. But I can't help but to think about what a HUGE step back this season was and will be for the program.
Too soon.
All I know is, that was an embarrassment for my Alma Mater.
David Brandon takes over tomorrow, and I think we will see an across-the-board evaluation of all 25 coaches.
In fact, I'd go out on a limb and say that the AD probably reviews all 25 coaches EVERY year. It's sorta his job.
But who, exactly, should he fire? The basketball coach who brought us to the first NCAA tournament in 11 years? The hockey coach who invented hockey (and probably invented ice), and just missed the tournament for the first time in 20 years? The football coach who is undertaking the biggest overhaul since Fielding Yost, and has only been here for 2 years?
I'm pissed too. But if we start firing people just because "we're Michigan and someone must pay if we don't win," we risk becoming Notre Dame.
Um, hockey's still playing, man.
but unless we can win the CCHA tournament three times this year, the NCAA tournament will contain a distinct lack of winged helmets.
Or maybe you forgot about the Big Ten Tourney.
Manny's performance should guarantee that he returns.
I'll eat my (full-size) keyboard if Manny leaves early, makes an NBA roster, and plays meaningful minutes next year.
Not a knock on Manny (who seems like a generally OK guy), but I don't think he's anywhere near ready at this point.
We forget how much success Tommy Amaker brought the program? At least the Beilein regime has a proven track record of some success. A crap year, for sure, but an ALL CAPS huge step backward. Step back from the ledge, my friend.
everyone he wants to but Beilein just signed an extension and there is no way we are axing him anytime soon.
Loss #1: An unranked, average-looking Michigan team loses by 1-point to a top-10 team, in the midst of a 30+ game season that was already largely a failure.
Loss #2: A top-5 Michigan team with national title aspirations loses its season opener to a Division I-AA team, a loss that would later be labeled by several media outlets as the upset of the decade.
Yeah... roughly the same thing.
Who said we were comparing the two?
I told my friend that could have been a bigger loss than football's to Appalachian St.
Like I said, I was comparing the after-effects of the loss. I think that MSU loss will have more tangible (read not just embarrassing) negative effects.
The season sucked. It certainly was a huge disappointment. But in the big scheme of things I don't think it will be a huge step back. We're in position to put together a good recruiting class this year, and next year as well (with Carlton Brundidge already committed), and the practice facility will really help down the road. And I think Morris is ready to bust out next year. People just need to keep the faith. Beilein's won a lot of games; he knows what he's doing.
If certain things do not change it could be a long season next year. The size factor is huge, you cannot continue to start four shorter guards. Also we need to get stronger, you saw it today with the inability to finish the and one's underneath as well as getting the ball taken away easily. The last thing is make your stinkin shots, wide open threes cannot be missed all the time.
I think these things are going to change over time, Beilien is a great coach/great person, it will come together it just may take some time.
it's the total lack of athleticism. I would rather have a 6'9" guy with long arms that can run and jump than a plodding 7 footer. When your team can't shoot very well you need to be able to get some easy buckets off of the fast break. Which means either pressure D or rebounding and getting the ball out on the break. Quite frankly we're not very good at either thing.
Bringing in more athlete will definitely help which is why Trey Z. would be a great way to fill out this class. With Brundige coming in the following year with a big like Amir Williams things should improve drastically.
First off, we finished tied for 7th in the Big Ten last year, same as this year. The conference was stronger this year, our expectations were higher, and things didn't bounce our way in terms of national perception (an average team got a lot of mileage out of beating just-okay UCLA and Duke teams early on last year).
The team also struggled with the same talent-based issues, namely size and rebounding, along with a lack of one-on-one scoring ability outside of Sims and Harris. The big difference is that this team was flat out terrible shooting the basketball from the perimeter. Every single player saw a significant drop in his 3pt% and we lost guys who shot well last year in Grady, Merritt and Lee (though they may have fallen off the map as well for all I know). I really have no explanation for how an entire team can forget how to shoot from outside. It seems hard to blame the coach. Maybe someone with more basketball knowledge can offer some kind of explanation but I am really baffled by it. EDIT: Maybe replacing competent shooters like Merritt, Lee, and Grady with Morriss' 19% allowed teams to clamp down on the other perimeter shooters?
Looking at the schedule, this made a huge difference in the season. Making one or two extra threes in games where we shot a ton of them at a terrible percentage against Alabama, BC, MSU (home), and Penn State (home) could have dramatically altered perceptions. Make those shots (like we did last year) and the team is looking at a .500 record in a very good Big Ten, an 18-12 record overall, and is right on the NCAA bubble.
trying to be a dick here, but you're basically saying "if we played better we would have won more games"...which, like, yeah.
i know we're all trying to Stay Positive, but the fact remains this season represents a giant step backwards whichever way you cut it. this was major regression across the board, its hard to escape that fact.
I'm saying that if the team shot from the outside at a just okay clip, the team would have won 4-5 more games. Basically all of the regression in terms of record can be accounted for by a huge drop in three point field goal percentage.
Agree completely los barcos - these "what-if" scenarios are so lame - "if we had just changed [x] aspect of the system, then things would have been soooo different". Its not called a "system" for no reason. Systems are composed of interworking parts. You never change just one thing. And any change by us would have made for changes in who we were playing (part of a greater system). We change, they change. Who knows what the hell would have happened.
If you look at the stats year-over-year (and I know, stats should be viewed with a major grain of salt), the teams are basically the same save for about a 2 point drop in offensive scoring as well as scoring against. But whereas last year 67 pts/gm was good enough for 181th in the country (out of 330), 65 pts/gm this year is 256th. The 3 pt shooting really regressed, but that was about it (though the one missing 3pt/gm was offset by less points allowed per game). By virtually all other metrics that usually lead to a regression - more turnovers, less turnovers forced, rebounding margin - the team either improved or basically stayed the same. This team certainly "underachieved" on a macro level, but I think that has more to do with the unrealistic expectations hoisted on them in the preseason than any major failings of the team.
Swapping Grady/Lee/Merritt for Morris/Vogrich was certainly a net loss in 3-point percentage, but I think our problems went deeper than that. It didn't seem to be a struggle for the other guys to get an open look. For much of the season, teams were collapsing on Sims inside and giving up the shot from the perimeter. Douglass, Novak and LLP had many, many good looks that they bricked. Maybe it became a psychological thing after awhile.
Great points. Whereas last year the team benefited from a couple of huge breaks (the Indiana game, beating UCLA and Duke when people still thought they were awesome), this year they never really got on track. The lack of shooting is disturbing, but it was also so bad that you have to figure the team will rebound a bit next year. I mean, statistically D-1 players should be able to hit more open shots - and there were many this year - than they did. So add 6-9 points to some of these scores and UM is right back in the tourney.
I think losing Sims will be tough because Beilien's teams work best when there is at least some inside-outside action, whether it be via slash-and-kick or more conventional post play. Without an established inside presence coming back, inside scoring will be at a premium and they'll likely keep chucking up even more shots. Maybe some of the young guys will establish themselves inside or bring some slash-and-kick back, but it will be a transition next year.
As for Harris, he hasn't really evolved as a player and he just doesn't seem to work in this system. That might be an issue with the player (not buying in), the coach (failing to guide him), the system, or some combination of those factors. If he goes pro this year, he'll probably wind up in the D-League playing for the Kansas City Whatevers and maybe getting a call to the NBA at some point. If he stays, he may mature a bit and improve his shot a bit, but he might also become even more free-shooting because he knows it is his last chance to impress scouts. Either way, I don't think his return will drastically affect next year's ceiling as much as improvements amongst the shooters.
"First off, we finished tied for 7th in the Big Ten last year, same as this year."
This takes some of the sting out. I wonder if the FB team hadn't stunk to high heaven for two years if people would really be this upset about basketball. Seems to me that BB has carried our hopes and dreams for two years and came up short this one.
Next year, we go to a major bowl and make sweet 16 in NCAA. We're doing our metaphorical 40 years wandering the desert right now. Keep the faith and we'll be rewarded.
Vogrich needs to step up in a big way next year. Sam Webb hyped his shooting accuracy in endless recruiting roundup's on par with a Delta Force elite sniper, yet in the games I saw him in he wasn't hitting much and was a liability on defense. Now, given he is a freshman and I'm not ragging him, I just expected more based on his pedigree and reputation. Hopefully he makes a huge frosh-soph leap, we need him.
I also wonder what a game like today's does to Trey Zeigler's decision process...does he see the immediate need and playing time available at Michigan, or would he want to play for a perennial winner at MSU?
Step 1: eat a sandwich
Step 2: repeat
With everybody else struggling outside, I'm surprised he didn't see a little more floor time (e.g. more than Wright). In his defense, he led the team shooting 37% from 3. The next closest guy hit 31.3% (national average is a little over 34%).
This wasn't a reactionary post to the loss today, rather it's more of a bunch of thoughts that I've been talking about with my friends since the end of a very disappointing non-conference season.
The thing that this season does - and was the main point of my original post - is puts a halt to all the student excitement that was generated last year. Last year student ticket sales went up 500% to 2,500. Judging by attendance of students this year, I think we'd be lucky to get to 1,250 next year. That is a HUGE (Yes, capital huge) step back.
I remember having student tickets in the 2002-03 season when we started 0-6 and literally no one was at the games. The team got better and beat State in front of a packed house. The next year the student section filled up during the NIT run.
If the team plays well or the games are big, people will show up. If the team isn't any good, people won't (M basketball does not have a particularly loyal following among students or the general population). At the end of the day, though, things have been a whole lot worse than they are right now as far as interest level goes (SEE 0-6 and Chris Kaman ripping down the rim while a few dozen students meekly try to drown out one drunk screaming "Fire up Chips!").
a streak of bad luck with regard to the big men he has tried to get thusfar. Ben Cronin was (unfortunately) a bust, Epke Udoh transferred, and the big German kid he tried to get a while ago had NCAA qualification problems. To me, this is the main reason that his teams have struggled. Now, he has lost time and is still in the position where he has to find some big men. I think you have to give him more time. I don't like the fact that his teams are inconsiistent but it is understandable given the personnel. I know it's hard to watch but I think you need to take into account the bad luck he has had with the big guys he's been trying to get.
Subtract Sims, Wright, and Gibson (and maybe Harris)
Add in McLimans, Morgan, Hardaway Jr., and Smotrcyz
You heard it here first, next years squad will be better than this years.
Add in Ziegler (and/or Harris) and you will forget this season even happened.