SP+ Predicts UM 27-Iowa 16
Title basically says it all.
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1466022511334805506?s=20
Also, since someone will inevitably ask, SP+ is the best prediction metric out there. Using it to bet against the spread would win you a lot of money most of the time. As it turns out, the SP+ predictions for this week align with the spreads really closely.
It has Georgia, Cincinnati, and OKSt all winning, in which case I think those would be the other three playoff teams.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
Must stop their run game (hope Hinton is good to go).
Must run (hope Corum is good to go).
Beat Iowa.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
Would like everyone healthy. Haskins Edwards Corum. Hutch Ojabo Smith Morris Jeter Hinton.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
Maybe I’m missing something but are these guys hurt or supposedly hurt?
December 1st, 2021 at 9:23 AM ^
What was its prediction for our game vs. OSU?
December 1st, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
OSU 32
Michigan 26
Which, given Connelly's metrics, was a fair prediction.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
I mean, that's pretty good. They got OSU's points almost right and no one was expecting Michigan to pave OSU's defense all day
December 1st, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
They’re basically just predicting that the margin closely matches the Vegas spread in both the OSU and Iowa games along with the O/U total
December 1st, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
That's because the model is so good that it closely correlates to Vegas. That's a sign of the model's strength.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
...and then it snowed and put a wrench in the prediction.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
I feel like people are giving the snow too much credit. Michigan's pass rush and run defense affected OSU far more than the snow, IMO. When CJ Stroud had time he still threw the ball well and the receivers still had good days.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
I mean, not really. They were five points off on OSU's score, so the difference was what, one of their two FGs being a TD instead? Maybe the snow factored in there, but I'm pretty confident the snow had nothing to do with their D's complete inability to stop our running game...
December 1st, 2021 at 9:24 AM ^
My heart would appreciate a score more like 37-16 please, pretty please!
December 1st, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
Same. Objectively, an 11 point win is pretty comfortable but it probably wouldn't feel like it for most of the game.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
Yeah a 27-16 final means it's probably a very uncomfortable 10-6 at half or something. Michigan usually pulls away late
December 1st, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
Same. Objectively, an 11 point win is pretty comfortable but it probably wouldn't feel like it for most of the game.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
I think it is critical to get up early. Even by 10 you will push Iowa and Hutch and Co can tee off.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
Whichever team is forced to activate the air raid offense first will surely lose.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
I would like to see more - Iowa has come back from down a couple scores on multiple occasions this year. Nebraska up 21-6, Iowa scores 19 in 4th quarter. Penn State up 17-3 loses 20-23.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
Those Iowa comebacks were smoke and mirrors.
Nebraska is notorious for being mentally weak. Hell, Iowa had to rely on a blocked punt to tie it up. Penn State easily beats Iowa with Sean Clifford.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
The first quarter does not a game make. That PSU looked great early doesn't mean Iowa wouldn't have crept back. I've seen them eerily creep back into many, many games. It's the classic Ferentz win.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
Yeah, but it sure helped that PSU spent most of the game fielding a backup QB who couldn’t do a thing on offense.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Roberson was terrible that day. At one point I think Penn State lost yards on three straight plays. Iowa still needed all three remaining quarters to come back.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Iowa has a good defense so as long as they're not too far behind any single big break gets them back into it.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
You're both right. Yes, PSU being forced to play a very much not ready QB played a leading role in their collapse, and Neb is Neb, collapsing is what they do. But Iowa didn't quit, and their propensity for big plays on D and ST means they can turn around a one or two score game in a hurry.
Priority #1 will definitely be taking care of the football. Make their O score their points (not their strong suit as of late), and hopefully get a nice lead early and let Hutch and Ojabo go to work on their QBs...
December 1st, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
I would love to see Iowa in a position where they have to pass to come back. I'll need to double-check my schedule, but I'm pretty sure they haven't faced Hutchinson and Ojabo yet.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
Michigan should win this game if they play a sound fundamentally focused game. The biggest thing Iowa has going for them is UM coming off the most emotional win in 20+ years. That isn't a small thing.
I truly believe we find out how much the culture has changed this week. It has changed a TON...but we see if we have found the ceiling. This is gong to take a hell of a job from coaches and team leaders to refocus and play a sound game. They won't be able to match the intensity of the osu game and that's also ok. You can only do that a few times a year. But you can get refocused and play sound, mistake free football.
I'm an athletic trainer that has worked in college for years and my buddy who works for Iowa is saying they are 100% using the typical motivation you'd expect "Michigan isn't even focused on us", "Michigan thinks they already won", "Michigan doesn't respect us". All the stereotypical things any team would do...they are doing it. They are going to try to do exactly what Michigan did to osu. Punch UM in the face to shock them, and see how they respond.
UM has to be focused and not turn the damn ball over to this Iowa team. I will be as impressed as I've been from any game this year if they come out and play a clean and crisp game.
It's championship week now boys!!!!!
December 1st, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
It’s going to require the team to walk the line between letdown and playing tight. Yes there’s a risk of a letdown, but there’s also a risk of playing tight given the circumstances.
The pressure is on us, just like it was on OSU last week. Iowa can play like they have nothing to lose, because after all, they didn’t even expect to be here.
What gives me a lot confidence is our leadership. Hutch, Haskins, Cade, Vastardis, Hawkins, etc. Those guys feel like they can will this team to victory. I’m counting on it.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
i think we've had big comeback wins, including saturday vs. ohio (down 10-7 late in the second quarter), and i'm not worried about backbone for this team in terms of playing tight or not responding well to pressure.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
My pre-season prediction was for losses to Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU, and if we had too many injuries, losses to IU and MD as well.
24-23 Iowa.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Are you predicting an Iowa win?
December 1st, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
Don predicted losses to PSU, OSU, W, IU, MD
Now predicting a loss to Iowa.
I am sure he is trying to keep his track record intact.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
I think he also predicted a MSU loss. So, I am hoping for him to be wrong this time.
December 1st, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
No, I had the MSU game as one of our victories.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
Jerk.
December 1st, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
On top of my abysmal preseason predictions about the Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU games, I also had the MSU game as one of our victories.
Me predicting a Michigan victory would not be good juju.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
Could not agree more. I almost think it's best to focus on the x's and o's and getting yourself mentally sharp (film study, knowing your opponent, etc) and go into it more "neutral" to avoid exactly what you are saying.
Make it a business trip.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
Yeah if Michigan comes out and plays a disciplined game I'll be 100% in on them as a title contender. Either way it feels great to just be in the championship game and I'm very proud of this team. This season has been a wonderful surprise
December 1st, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
The mental make-up of this team seems stronger than any I've seen in my ~15 years following Michigan. They've taken haymakers from all sides and haven't crumpled like we've all come to expect that Michigan teams will. You won't get that same emotional high you got for OSU, but they're going to be focused
December 1st, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
The difference is that Michigan built up to last week's performance against the Buckeyes. The victory over Maryland was just as dominating as last week's performance and featured the same kind of all around effectiveness, which means to me, this team is on a mission.
In watching them celebrate afterward, their body language wasn't so much an indication of Mission Accomplished, but as hurdle cleared to reach bigger goals. What did our coach say, it feels like the beginning. We did it! Now do it again.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
I have not watched Iowa at all...not a single game. Is this the type of game for Hutch and Co to feast?
Assume the Iowa o-line is good but is their qb play as bad as people say?
December 1st, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
Their QBs are mediocre. Petras' stat line is 58% completions, a little over 6 YPA, and a 9:6 TD:INT.
Their Center is probably the best in all of college football and their RB is good, but the rest of the OL isn't very good. They've given up 1 less sack than PSU on the season, putting them at 2nd to last in the conference. Their TE is their leading receiver (no shock) but even then he isn't a Hockenson level Iowa TE.
If Michigan can get them off schedule and force them to drop back (and not get caught with misdirection), it could get ugly, fast on that side of the ball.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
This, and I think you could argue their QB's are less than mediocre. Against top 30 defenses, their production falls off a cliff. This is not an offense can hit on explosive plays with any consistency really at all. I could see them putting together a nice scripted drive to start the game that will make us all pucker a little bit, but they won't be able to sustain it, and their offense will bog down quickly.
They have a pretty solid rushing attack, and their defense is excellent. But over the course of a 4 quarter game, really their only option will be to drive the field on our defense. I really don't like their chances there at all.
For Michigan, I think the key will be to not let their defense or special teams make any game changing plays. The first quarter could be a little suspenseful for us, but we can grind them down with our running game mixed with RPO/play action to keep them off balance. Our guys have demonstrated all season they don't panic in tight games and have the mental fortitude to stick with the game plan throughout the ebbs and flows of a competitive game. We should be fine as long as we don't turn it over or make a plethora of mental mistakes. Even if we come out a little flat after a big emotional win after last weekend.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
"A pretty solid rushing attack"...oh my no. Iowa at 121 per game with a 3.3 ypc would be well below mediocre. Michigan at 225 per game and a 5.3 yards per carry average-now we are talking better than "pretty good".
It is most difficult to envision Michigan lacking emotional and psychological engagement for this contest.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
I've only watched Iowa twice this year. Penn State was dominating them until they lost Clifford. Then PSU's offense was non-existent and that was just enough for Iowa to barely to squeak out the win.
When I checked scores on my phone, it said Purdue was kicking Iowa's ass at Kinnick so I watched the entire second half.
Despite Iowa's coma inducing style of offense, they're one of those pain in the ass teams that will play you annoyingly close the majority of the time. And I don't think it's going to be easy for Michigan to just come off the most emotional victory in forever and just pick up where they left off. Hope I'm wrong.
Many people seem to think this will be a 21-13 type game.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:26 AM ^
Agree...I think this game is going to be closer than most fans expect. KF is a smart head coach and likes to lay in the weeds to capitalize on mistakes other teams make. Their defense is pretty good and we've seen middling QBs turn in Heisman performances against us at various times for some odd reason.
I think we win but I'm going to keep some Tums handy for this game.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^
They're gonna run, they're gonna throw screens, throwbacks, wheel routes to rb's (like Nebraska did), end-arounds, TE pop passes...anything and everything to avoid Aidan and Ojabo and to keep our defense off balance.
Their defense is very good, they'll sell out against Haskins and switch up coverages on passing downs, baiting McNamara to throw over the middle. It's going to be a long, annoying grind it out game. Michigan could create some space early by hitting a deep shot against one on one coverage and capitalizing on an Iowa mistake, but I wouldn't count on it.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
Of the Iowa games I’ve watched they rely entirely on their defense. At least earlier in the year when they moved to #2, they would have one 5-10 minute stretch in the game. During this time they would score on defense once or twice, and play suffocating defense. The remainder of the game would be sitting on the lead. Best bet for Michigan is to stop their opening scripted drive, and not turn the ball over. Michigan should win a field position game based on how abysmal Iowa’s offense is.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Michigan should win a field position game based on how abysmal Iowa’s offense is.
My biggest concern is that Henning is still a bit shaky in the punt return game. The weather obviously played a roll against OSU, but he's had a few muffed punts and tries to catch punts off the bounce. Iowa's special teams are really good so I worry that field position battle could flip given 1 or 2 bad returns.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
Iowa special teams are second only to Michigan's. Henning hasn't been perfect but he makes up for slight shakiness with a lot of excellent returns. He was really good against OSU. The one he caught off the bounce bounced right into his chest. That should be, and looked like it was, easy for him to field. The one he muffed was a blow-by that should have been flagged for interference.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
Yeah I'm not so concerned about the muff that should have been flagged. He's dropped 2 others I think this year though.
And yes the bouncing punt landed right in his chest, but footballs aren't round and that's a huge risk. It bounces 6 inches lower and he doesn't field it cleanly and there are problems.
That's kind of my point, his returns are high variance. Could go for 20 yards on a clean catch and run. Or he could not field it and it's a turnover or loses 20 yards of field position.