South Korea tops OECD’s growth rate forecast for 2020
You actually can have your cake and eat it too.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200811000764
This shouldn't be a shock at all. In general, the countries that have done the best at containing the virus (testing, tracing, and isolating, and wearing masks) have been the ones able to keep their economies running smoother.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-s-GDP-falls-surprise-0.73-in-Q2-as-global-economy-slows
Taiwan's economy barely shrunk in the second quarter, and a lot of that probably has to do with the rest of the world than Taiwan itself struggling.
By comparison, Sweden contracted 8.3% in the second quarter.
Of course, this has been the argument all along. If you're worried about the economy, you should be worried about controlling the virus, not letting it run rampant. Restaurants and bars never closed in Korea. Only in the last week or so was there a small outbreak in Seoul because of evangelical right-wingers protesting, and so cafes were takeout only for a few days and restaurants couldn't have in-person dining after 9 p.m. Things look like they're trending back down already. When people are safer, they're more likely to go out in public. Trying not to be too condescending here, but it's not a difficult concept.
Not to mention the human cost. Only 324 people have died in South Korea from covid, in a country of 50 million that's very densely populated.
August 31st, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
It might hypothetically be argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic has been very poor and not great at all.
September 1st, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
Tesla is doing fine
September 1st, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
Large corporations have made out so, so well during the pandemic in this country. Small businesses/mom-and-pops have been absolutely hammered. This pandemic period has been the largest upward wealth transfer in our lifetimes.
8.2.3September 1st, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
And they're going to be doing even better after that stock split yesterday. People who wanted to invest but didn't want to drop two grand for just one share will now get to have a seat at the table.
September 1st, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
Their stock is doing well...
"Tesla said revenue in the second quarter fell 5 percent, to $6 billion. Total sales of automobiles declined 5 percent, to about 91,000 cars, an update to preliminary figures it released earlier this month."
August 31st, 2020 at 10:58 PM ^
Also, it helps too that South Korea is the same in land size as Minnesota. In my opinion, the geographical size it’s an important factor, too.
not being snarky, but I do believe land size has impact too.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:00 PM ^
yeah but wouldn't you think smaller and more compact is worse for infectious disease?
August 31st, 2020 at 11:13 PM ^
A smaller population is much easier to control. I at least think it would be a lot easier to enforce quarantine and other guidelines
September 1st, 2020 at 12:20 AM ^
Although on a peninsula shared with North Korea, South Korea is essentially an “island” and able to control its borders much more effectively as well.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
We only share borders with 2 countries and Canada locked things down a long time ago. It wasn't the land travelers that brought COVID, it was the plane passengers. Because of economic impact, US resisted shutting plane traffic down (including China, where thousands of US citizens flew back).
August 31st, 2020 at 11:15 PM ^
I think that is logical but it’s also worth considering the virus is “quarantined” by the lack of land area. What’s interesting is NYC was the epicenter earlier on, while Arizona didn’t experience a spike until June.
im sure someone smarter than me can give credence or shot this observation down
September 1st, 2020 at 8:55 AM ^
China has a much larger population than the US with the roughly the same land size. They controlled it as well as anyone after the initial outbreak. They share borders with more countries than the US do. Land size is not nearly as important as a strong federal response. The Trump admin dropped the ball, it's not really controversial to say so.
September 1st, 2020 at 9:36 AM ^
If by strong federal response you mean they are an authoritarian dictatorship that has the means to control the behavior of their people through coercion, yes China has us beat.
I'll take the American response over that any day.
China hasn't got the new improved version we have in the US yet. They are doing their best not to get it too. If it gets loose uncontrolled inside China, then we can compare strong federal responses a little better.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^
Korea basically locked down the city of Daegu where the COVID infection originated, which is why Seoul was spared from the initial outbreak. US could have done the same...
September 1st, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
Two things wrong with that.
By the time the US acknowledged we had a real problem, it was more than New York, it was the whole Northeast and Detroit, and it was widespread. Then we DID lock down. But instead of just the affected areas, we locked down practically the whole country, not just the affected areas. People aren't going to respect being locked down when they don't have a problem. People who have a problem will respect the need.
Second, the virus the far east had and the virus the "west" has had is not the same. This has been known for some time, and we even have someone who has been infected by both the original "Wuhan" and the mutated "western" version now. No one has managed to lock the "western" version down once it's got inside their borders.
I'm using "western" here, although we have no idea where D614G came from, it affected the western world first (probably Iran, but who knows).
September 1st, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Your only argument is that officials were too slow to react. I agree. But reaction time has nothing to do with whether or not your government is authoritarian or not. It is just a function of competency.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
You can take emergency federal measures in times like this and not be an authoritarian dictatorship. I would also have taken the response were 183,000 and counting have not died over this any day.
The other reason China handled this so well is that their culture values whole over the self. You do what is good for everybody not just what you want. They took to wearing masks and making sacrifices immediately.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
If by authoritarian dictatorship you mean that all the Chinese provinces weren't forced to get into bidding wars with each other for life-saving basic supplies, I think in this instance I'd take a strong centralized response, rather than 56 different bureaucracies in one country fighting and trying to outbid each other over for masks and gowns and tests and ventilators. Great article on the front page of today's Wall Street Journal - that lefty fake news outlet.
September 1st, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
This is where I wish people were capable of nuanced thinking about the government and whether it should be allowed to do anything on a large scale. Everyone agrees that we shouldn't have an authoritarian government. With that said, in times of extreme emergencies, it is okay for the government to take action to prevent hundreds of thousands of American deaths. You need to act quickly and decisively with something like COVID. I despise almost everything about our current president, but this was a rare time when I wish he would have actually utilized the power of the executive branch.
September 1st, 2020 at 9:56 AM ^
Yes, China has a "strong federal response" to many "issues" in their country. The US hasn't done a great job, but I think the federal government along with several state governments share the blame. However, I don't think I would like to see the US implement most of the tactics that are employed by the Chinese government.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
China can control it "as well as anyone" because it has a one party government, and what the party says, goes. There is no debate, no compromise, no "hey, let's try and find a middle ground that works best for everyone." The Chinese government can order the entire country to be shut down overnight and there is nothing from a political standpoint that stands in their way to do that. Unlike here.
If they wanted to, they could round up everyone who was/is infected, send them out to labor camps in the Gobi Desert, which effectively isolates them from the healthy population, and work them to death or just shoot them on sight when they get there. And that would be a perfectly legal action. And if their people don't like it, who are they going to complain to?
China is a bad example because of the total, absolute authority the government has, in this situation, compared to what the US Government can do. They don't have to worry about the rights of their people because, effectively, their people don't have rights. You might as well tell us that Russia is able to contain the virus as well as anyone.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:08 PM ^
No scientist here but help me out. Restaurants and bars never closed in South Korea? When there was an outbreak they said restaurants couldn't have dine-in after 9PM? This seems at odds with Chapter 1 of the How to Control the Virus Handbook.
Restaurants and bars open. Economy growing so people are working. KBO has fans in the stands. The schools are open. Hunh?
August 31st, 2020 at 11:12 PM ^
South Korea quickly recognized the seriousness of the virus and implemented a regime of testing, tracing, and containing. We could have had a significantly better outcome with better organization and better societal buy-in.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:14 PM ^
People actually wear masks in SK. Masks are not a fashion statement, civil rights depravity or chin straps over there like they are in America. Add in the fact that they have competent governance leading to prompt test kit manufacturing and mandatory testing w/ swift containment and you get a comfortable autumn.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
This is not true. The city of Daegu, where the COVID initially spread, was effectively shut down. All the shops and restaurants were closed for awhile. Seoul stayed relatively open, but with no large gatherings with karaoke rooms and school closures.
This is what heavy testing and tracing allows.
September 1st, 2020 at 7:49 PM ^
Let me add that the KTX (high speed train) was shut down as well. So the lovely people of Daegu could not travel freely. I have been to Daegu dozens of times and vehicle travel to Seoul is awful.
My co-worker from Daegu tested positive and he could not leave his apartment. The "get off my lawn guy" watched him to make sure he did not leave his apartment. He was branded and the Health Inspectors visited him every day until he tested negative for 2 consecutive days.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:14 PM ^
Why would Sweden's economy suffer if they did not lock down? The 6,000 people who died of covid in Sweden were likely not in the workforce. Maybe it's because their economy is more dependent on trade with Europe and the U.S., which did lock down, than South Korea. Too hard to draw any conclusions from this data.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^
How many countries are more dependent on exports than South Korea?
September 1st, 2020 at 12:16 AM ^
The type of products south korea trades, such as electronics mayhave been less affected by the virus. Many possibilities
You would have to look at the data more closely to draw a conclusion that Sweden's approach negatively affected their economy. You still haven't proposed an explanation for why Sweden's economy suffered from the virus.
September 1st, 2020 at 1:06 AM ^
'the 6,000 people who died weren't part of the workforce.' Nobody's making the argument that the loss of economic input from those who die is does major direct damage to the economy. One of the dumber statements I've seen on here.
Sweden had a very high early infection and mortality rate, which has a tendency to scare the crap out of people and slow down an economy.
Reasonable conjecture that controlling infections through testing, contract tracing (of an intense variety in S. Korea), and minor precautions like mask wearing can lead to low population risk and continued economic activity.
September 1st, 2020 at 1:22 AM ^
The 6,000 deaths did not affect Sweden's economy, so what did? The OP doesn't provide any evidence of why sweden's economy contracted more than South Korea and neither does your post. More data is needed before conclusions can be drawn from the economic data provided by OP. Sweden's economy shrank less than the Eurozone average by 3%. Also Sweden has achieved herd immunity and will not have viral outbreaks going forward, while South Korea will likely continue to have periodic outbreaks and shutdowns until herd immunity is achieved. South Korea is not out of the woods, while Sweden is.
September 1st, 2020 at 1:51 AM ^
"Sweden achieved herd immunity"
We're done here. You're speaking nonsense.
September 1st, 2020 at 2:05 AM ^
Your comment will not age well. Sweden had a spike at the beginning of the outbreak and now they are down approximately 0-1 deaths per day and that has been the case for weeks. That's what herd immunity looks like. Sweden has done nothing differently since the beginning of the outbreak. Google covid deaths and sweden. The graphs and data are clear.
September 1st, 2020 at 8:49 AM ^
You are wasting your time here. This board has already made up it’s mind and facts aren’t going to change it.
When this is finally all done and gone, a lot of people around here are going to be pissed that they fell for all the group think for so long.
September 1st, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^
I can come up with at least 180,000 people that *would* be pissed that people fell for "group think"...
September 1st, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
And I think there are two different opinions on what herd immunity is too now.
One group thinks it's like when we get a vaccine for Polio or Measles and no one ever gets sick and dies.
The other group thinks of it like the Flu and other cold like viruses. Enough people get this virus that it's no longer really Novel, it's just another virus. Just like the Hong Kong Flu or the Spanish Flu, it becomes part of society. Yes, people die from it, but people die from common colds and the Flu every year.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
Who is noone?
September 1st, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^
Someone not social distancing is who! I'll edit it.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
By all means share these facts you have that rebut the argument that Sweden didn't, in fact, reach herd immunity. Oh, and explain how most other countries found ways to stem the spread of this disease far better than the US. Oh, and that the 180k+ dead somehow were tricked into not being able to breath and dying because they listened to a bunch of libtards on MSNBC.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:43 AM ^
Sweden's closest neighbors are Denmark, Finland and Norway. Like Sweden, they are only seeing 0-1 daily deaths from Covid now.
One difference between those countries and Sweden is their death total is around 1200 and their combined population is quite a bit higher than Sweden's.
Sweden took a much different approach than their neighbors to handling the pandemic. Comparing them to S. Korea or the USA makes less sense than comparing them to their neighbors.
Suggested they have achieved herd immunity is based on what exactly? Did their neighbors achieve it as well without sacrificing so many of their citizens to achieve it?
September 1st, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
I think the argument is still going to be Sweden believes that by their actions they have achieved "functional" herd immunity. In other words, they will never have to lock down, ever. They can have free and open borders from their end forever, and continue life pretty much as things were before.
Other countries that went into severe lock downs, like their neighbors, will have to be ever vigilant until there is a vaccine. If there is never a vaccine, Norway can never ever relax their borders without risking another outbreak. Perhaps years from now even!
So arguing right now, 9 months into the pandemic that one way or the other is a better approach is futile.
September 1st, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
Sweden has NOT attained herd immunity, as noted by this article from New Scientist. "Achieving herd immunity was one of Tegnell’s original aims – but antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected, similar to levels in London and New York. That is far short of near the 70 per cent level estimated to be needed." It's funny to see you say "more data is needed" for some things, but then see you ignore data when you make baseless claims about herd immunity.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/
September 1st, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
Antibody tests have turned out to be pointless as the antibodies don't stay in the system long enough to give a true idea of functional herd immunity. Very annoying.
It turns out the T-cells that make the antibodies just need to be trained enough to recognize this Covid and you are effectively immune, antibodies are not needed. There are other similar coronaviruses that also may train T-cells well enough to give you protection, thus the asymptomatic carriers. I have no idea how you test for adequately trained T-cells.
Those would better technical knowledge feel free to correct me, but that's my understanding of how this all works.
September 2nd, 2020 at 8:26 AM ^
Neither "KingJames" nor you have pointed to any evidence that Sweden has greater immunity based on T-cells than do New York and London. The hard data we do have documents that Sweden has had a significantly higher Covid-19 death rate than the other Scandinavian countries (which did undergo harder lockdown) without compensatory economic benefit compared to those countries. The assertion by "KingJames" about Sweden having herd immunity--based on no evidence at all--is ridiculous.
September 2nd, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^
This won't be read as it's 17 threads down now, but the needed "evidence" is Sweden is basically a normal society with very little in the way of social controls in place to combat the spread of the Covid, yet the Covid is not spreading.
Ergo, you have "functional" herd immunity, by definition. The evidence is staring us in the face.
September 1st, 2020 at 12:16 AM ^
The type of products south korea trades, such as electronics mayhave been less affected by the virus. Many possibilities
You would have to look at the data more closely to draw a conclusion that Sweden's approach negatively affected their economy. You still haven't proposed an explanation for why Sweden's economy suffered from the virus.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
Electronics are in fact less affected by viruses since they are mostly metal and not biological life forms.
So you got that one right I guess, but otherwise what the hell are you saying? I’m sure you’ll make a new account soon to enlighten us.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:56 PM ^
Even if the government didn’t formally shut down Sweden, people stayed home out of their own free will. Individuals act in their own best interest, so some will have decided to stay home and not spend money, and let everyone else deal with the virus.
September 1st, 2020 at 12:35 AM ^
Sweden's CoronaVirus response was praised by a high-ranking WHO official just today.
A lot of folk want to write the CoronaVirus post-mortems NOW. That is silly. The post-mortems will be written in 2025. We'll be better able then to judge whether South Korea or Sweden did a better job. And hopefully those post-mortems will inform future decisions.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
I agree that the post-mortems will be written around 2025. However, I do not think that inhibits our ability to look at the current outcomes for South Korea and Sweden right now and judge who is doing better.
This is like saying that we are unable to make general judgments of team quality in the NCAA after 3 games into the season.
It would be dishonest to say we are unable to make judgments between say an Alabama who beats South Car., Miss St., and Mercer by an average of 50-7, demonstrates a disciplined offensive attack, speed all over the field, and is gap-sound and sure-tackling defensively and a team like, say, Rutgers who does none of the above.
Sure, after 3 games we may not be able to tell if UM or Notre Dame are paper tigers or if Duke will surprise for 9 wins, but we can tell the difference between really good (South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Canada) and really bad (U.S., Brazil, Russia), both by their outcomes and by the discipline of their approach.