Some context on quarterback recruiting and development
In a recent thread, a poster lamented Coach Harbaugh's recruitment and development of quarterbacks. Certainly, there have been some misses. But, there's not quite an exact science to it. Not only have recruiting ranking agencies terribly missed, but some of the better coaches in college football have missed. Further, there have been some dynamic quarterbacks who have won big, and been drafted high, who didn't register a blip on recruitment sites or coaches radar.
From 2014-2017, here are quarterbacks (pro style) ranked in the top 100 overall recruits -
2014 - Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Keller Chryst, David Cornwell
2015 - Josh Rosen, Blake Barnett, Deondre Francois, Brady White, Jake Browning, Ricky Town, Drew Lock
2016 - Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason, KJ Costello,, Malik Henry, Feleipe Franks, Brandon Peters, Dwayne Haskins
2017 - Davis Mills, Hunter Johnson, Jake Fromm, Jack Sears
Now, how many of those guys became great, or developed into NFL talent. These 22 players were the highest ranked Pro-Style quarterbacks for 4 recruiting cycles. Basically EVERY head coach missed on these guys. There's one Heisman Finalist in the bunch, two 1st round picks, 9 who were drafted, ZERO franchise quarterbacks, and a half dozen or so that only the most rabid of college football fans would remember.
Even the GOAT Saban has 2 misses in there! There are a handful of qb stars in each class. How they turn into stars is not necessarily about ranking or development. Something has to be inside of each guy, and there is no formula to detect it. For example, here are some successful NFL quarterbacks, and some successful college quarterbacks and their overall recruit ranking.
Russell Wilson - 1102
Dak Prescott - 601
Patrick Mahomes - 398
Joe Burrow - 280
Baker Mayfield - 1029
Josh Allen - Unrated
Justin Herbert - 659
Mac Jones - 399
Marcus Mariota - 491
October 7th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
From 2014-2017 many top teams missed on their highest rated QB recruits.
From 2014-2017 many top teams ended up with great QB play.
From 2014-2017 Michigan did not have great QB play.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Define great? Harbaugh quarterbacks in 2015 and 2016 were very good! Would you be happy if Harbaugh took a chances on 3 star quarterbacks ranked in the 500-600's and just tried to coach them up. Or, would you complain that he was setting the bar too low?
October 7th, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
Like almost everybody, I'd be happy as long as it works. So far it hasn't.
Despite the small handful of people on the internet you may be responding to who are conflating recruiting and development, 99% of fans have no problems with recruiting rankings of QBs under Harbaugh. They've generally been decently high. The problem is with development, which has been undeniably poor. Right now your argument seems to be that QB recruiting rankings are an inexact science (a point no reasonable person denies) and therefore something something Harbaugh is being treated unfairly even though we've had poor QB play for the last 4 years (sure, '15 Rudock and '16 Speight were solid). Maybe I'm missing something but I don't understand your argument.
October 7th, 2021 at 10:21 PM ^
Is there a formula for good qb development? If it's an inexact science (just as recruiting rankings are) then what's the primary cause of a quarterback developing? I'd say it is a certain intrinsic trait that no coach can put a finger on. You can't coach what Russell Wilson has, what Brady, and Mahomes have. You can't coach what Heisman winners Mayfield and Mariota had in college, despite being ranked as lowly 3 star recruits.
Harbaugh coached Rudock to his best college season. Harbaugh coached Speight, a recruit in the 400's, to a very good season. Harbaugh coached Shea Patterson, a wild gunslinger, into an efficient playmaker. Shea was averaging more than 1 interception per game with Mississippi (12 in 10 games). Under Harbaugh, Shea threw 15 picks in 26 games.
My argument is quite clear. The criticism of Harbaugh's qb development at Michigan is misguided. No, he hasn't recruited a qb who has been drafted. No he hasn't coached a qb who has become star in college. But, has he had a quarterback who could be coached into stardom? Who has had that certain je ne sais quoi possessed by the college greats?
Further, the only years where Harbaugh has had bad qb play was 2017 and 2020. And we damn near beat OSU with John O'Korn!!!
October 7th, 2021 at 11:29 PM ^
Your argument is essentially that because it's an inexact science it's all luck and Harbaugh is unlucky that he hasn't brought in anyone innately good and that he's unlucky because none of them got better under him and that he's not responsible for either of those things because luck. QB development doesn't exist. QB coaching is all about stumbling upon 3 stars who are preordained to be NFL hall of famers or Heisman winners without development. That's what you're saying.
You use Shea getting worse under Harbaugh as if that reflects positively on him. You mention JOK nearly beating OSU.
Look I've been a fierce defender of Jim even after last year, but your argument doesn't make sense.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
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Inexact science =/= luck. There are countless things that are inexact sciences and people get paid to be good at those things. A coach can be great, terrible, or somewhere in between at identifying those "other traits" and a coach can be great, terrible, or somewhere in between at developing the physicals traits into the best possible version of that QB.
We can argue forever about where JH falls on that spectrum, but the idea that coaches somehow have no role in this, which is what the OP's claim boils down to, is nonsense.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
No, I didn't say it was all luck. However, the critics seem to discount the heavy role that luck does play in "qb development". Is Belichick a genius because he drafted Tom Brady? Did he watch his tape and interview him, then say "I'm winning Super Bowls with this guy"? Or, did he luck out? Did Bill Walsh see Montana and say "let's wait until the 3rd to draft this guy, he'll take us far"?
Don't you think that if Oklahoma valued Baker Mayfield so highly they would have given him a scholarship instead of making him walk on? Finding the right guy is more luck than skill. You still have to develop him, but you can't develop a bum into a star.
Further, I need to correct the record, I didn't say Shea got worse under Harbaugh. I said he got better. Shea was a wild gunslinger, interception machine at Mississippi. Harbaugh coached him into being a more efficient passer. Turnovers lose games.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:10 AM ^
"Harbaugh coached Rudock to his best college season. "
Yes... but it wasn't some phenomenal jump over his past seasons. It was pretty in line with expected improvement.
October 8th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
I don't think you're wrong in terms of it "not working," yet with Harbaugh - but I do think that perception plays as much into this than anything else. For example, let's take a look at the QBs that have transferred from M during Harbaugh's time here: Morris to CMU; Peters to Illinois; Malzone to Miami (NTM); Speight to UCLA; Milton to Tennessee; McCaffrey to No. Colorado. Of these guys, only Speight was below a 4 star. All others were high 4's and all went on to new schools and put up essentially the same numbers (or worse) at their new destinations. You could make an argument that Morris improved slightly, but he still threw 17 picks during his one year at CMU. Speight is probably the best of the bunch and his play also deteriorated once he left Ann Arbor. Point being that Harbaugh probably wasn't the reason for their average play. And in Speight's case, he might have been the reason their play improved given the deterioration at the next stop.
Now, compare that to the guys that have transferred in to Michigan and have gotten major playing time (Rudock and Patterson). In one year under Harbaugh's tutelage, Rudock had a career high in yards thrown and TDs, resulting in a passing efficiency rating 11 pts higher than before he came to AA. Patterson's Efficiency Rate at M is also 3 pts higher than his time at Ole Miss - harder to compare other stats given his limited playing time in Oxford. Again, you could argue that Harbaugh raised the ceiling for both players compared to their previous stops.
Finally, through 5 games, Cade McNamara's Efficiency Rate is 157.9. That is 40 points higher than Rudock's first 5 games in 2015 (117.4) and 12pts higher than Speight's first 5 games in 2016 (145.8). Conversely, it's higher than Trevor Lawrence's first 5 games in 2019 (143.7) and almost identical to Andrew Luck in 2010 (157.5). Is Cade going to have a better year than Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck? Probably not, but again the argument could be made that through 5 games, Cade could be Harbaugh's best prospect since he's gotten to AA.
Simply put, the perception is that Harbaugh should be developing guys into Heisman candidates yearly. I think that's probably fair given the success he had with Luck and Kap a decade ago. He hasn't done that yet, but I do think the narrative that Harbaugh hasn't developed anyone since he walked in the door is also patently false. It's something that the Finebaums and Cowherds of the world have spewed and we as a fanbase have foolishly lapped up when things aren't going well.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
Musing aloud, but I wonder if Dual-Threat QB prospect rankings are more accurate than Pro Style because it's easier to evaluate the speed and athleticism of a high-school QB - as oppose to mental processing and making the correct reads.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
Top 100 Overall Recruits Dual Threat QB
2014 - Deshaun Watson, Jarrod Heard, Brandon Harris
2015 - Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham, Brandon Wimbush, Travis Jonsen
2016 - Jarrett Guarantano
2017 - Tua, Tate Martell, Kellen Mond
Dual Threats have faired better, but it's a small sample size. A couple of Heisman's and National Champs!
October 8th, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^
This is exactly what I was thinking as well.
October 8th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Agree and disagree. I think that dual threat QBs are actually more inclined to fail because their legs make up for the key qb attributes they lack. People fall in love with the athleticism, and in some cases it works out and the guys develop.. and in others (milton, braxton miller), not as much.
The rare dual-threat that has both athleticism and running ability AND can sling it seem to be the best lock to make it, to me. Kyler murray + Lamar Jackson types.
This is a new phenomenon. For years Elway and Randall Cunningham were the prototypes for qbs that could run. By today's standards, not nearly the same, though cunningham ran for a ton. Its been an evolution.
But, i agree in that there's a chance that these QBs can turn out to be TEs or RBs or WRs and still be considered successful.. whereas the slow pocket passers will not. Thomas on the WFT, Tebow, and a few others are examples, but... there arent a ton.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
Counterpoint: Trevor Lawrence. #1 ranked overall player in class of 2018 (which you mysteriously exclude from your analysis, ending at 2017 for no apparent reason). #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
I’m not the OP, but for every Trevor, we have many busts. Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett, Tate Martell…
October 7th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
Ryan Mallet had a strong college career.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
And a pro career too!
Granted, it mostly consisted of watching Brian Hoyer take his job, and also missing team meetings, but still. Dude got paid for years to be a backup QB, which ain't a bad job.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
You just lumped together Tate Martell with two QBs selected in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, respectively. How are Mallet and Clauson “busts”???
October 7th, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
Jimmy Clausen carried a NFL clipboard for a boat load of years. Why? Beats the hell out of me - I have no idea why.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
It’s too early to call Martell a bust, he could break out this year or next. He will be pushing 30 when he graduates.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:20 PM ^
I stopped at 2017 because the 2018 class of quarterbacks still have 2 years of eligibility left (if they redshirted). Throwing them in would be a tad bit premature. There were 5 guys in the top 100 who were pro style quarterbacks, and several still have a chance to be special. Trevor Lawrence is a unicorn.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
FauxMo - Think the OP did a great job, and is allowed to pick a solid 4 year period at 2014-2017, especially when you consider that while top 2018 recruiting class QBs had Trevor Lawrence (a QB mutant prodigy) and Justin Fields, at the other end of the range, the top QBs in the 2013 recruiting class (per 247) were Christian Hackenburg, Max Browne, Brice Ramsey, Mitchell Trubisky - and of course, Shane Morris.
You are nitpicking and wrong - the OP has made a strong point, no matter the sample...
October 7th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
Fair enough! I concede defeat.
October 8th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
Fuck the Cornholes!
October 7th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
I'm with OP here--still too soon to do this for the 2018 class.
It's not news, though, that some high-ranked prospects will do well in college and make it to the pros. Wasn't Andrew Luck also a highly ranked recruit? That has nothing to do with the*rate* of hits from high school recruits.
Looking at it from a different perspective, remember Jeff Tedford? He's the guy who turned Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, Trent Dilfer and Joey Harrington into first round picks. People used to say that these guys couldn't function outside of his system and that's why they struggled in the NFL. The best of them, Trent Dilfer, was a journeyman and let's not get started about Joey Harrington.
This is a good part of the reason why Tedford-coached Aaron Rodgers fell to 24th in the draft.
So maybe it is hard to develop quarterbacks consistently.
October 7th, 2021 at 9:29 PM ^
I once hoped that Tedford would come to Michigan. A long, long time ago.
October 7th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^
Justin fields too
October 7th, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
Counterpoint: I love tacos
October 7th, 2021 at 7:25 PM ^
You lost me @ "prostyle" Maybe that's the point?
October 7th, 2021 at 7:33 PM ^
Okay, add in Dual Threats and the hit/miss ratio doesn't get much better.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:59 PM ^
Nvm. I just saw you posted them earlier, I missed it.
October 9th, 2021 at 6:18 AM ^
It does actually. Someone posted above.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
Honestly, I think Michigan’s lack of QB development is due to not sticking with an offensive philosophy. Harbaugh came straight from the NFL, pretty much literally. Perhaps if he had a bit more time to reflect on the modern college landscape before coming he might’ve tried to run a more contemporary system out of the gate. There has been major philosophical changes year to year. Shea ran two different systems here in two years! Harbaugh let The wrong guy go in Jedd before that.
I do believe that what they are doing now can really work, finally. And JJ is the guy who can really make it work. And if that happens you might get Dante Moore, and so on. I’m hoping we’re almost out of the wilderness.
Regarding all the players you list, they all were in or ended up in systems that worked with strong supporting casts, just like all the QBs (or many) from Bo to Lloyd.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
This all day plus with every switch of offense that also causes a switch in recruiting philosophy
October 8th, 2021 at 8:06 AM ^
Bingo. I totally agree with you here. Things started to go off the rails a bit with the changeover to Pep. They fixed a few things the following year and the QB, Shea, improved throughout the year. In 2019, the beginning of the Gattis experience, another brand new system for the offense and Shea. There have also been some growing pains for a first time OC.
2020 was a turd sandwhich from the jump and I struggle, as frustrating as it was, to really take too much from the season. We have at least seen a culture shift which was probably necessary. If this season progresses well, 2020 would be a distant memory, except for the msu loss. It’s also clear Joe Milton isn’t Michigan-specific. Heupel started him too and the same results occurred, and in a, presumably, more QB friendly system.
Bottom line, philosophical consistency is a big deal. Hopefully, they have it now.
I also go back to a comment Jim made shortly after he was hired. Something to the extent of Michigan being an additional NFL team. I wonder if he has realized that part of his culture shift was not running this quite like a business-like NFL team.
October 8th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Agree completely on nothing other than feelingsball.
Junior Shea Patterson had me drooling about the prospects of senior Shea Patterson. I have to think the shift in offensive philosophy had a lot to do with Shea's lackluster senior year. Or maybe golf. Or injuries. Or all of the above. Probably all of the above.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:39 PM ^
OP - You are making a great point here. Think we forget that college recruits are 17-18 year olds, and many peak at that age, or are late bloomers and just getting started.
It is obvious that guys like Josh Rosen and Jacob Eason were studs in high school and early college, but maxed somewhere at 19-20. But with your list of guys like Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen, their development was just getting started at 18-19.
To always blame coaching on a QBs lack of development is ludicrous. Hopefully - a coach just uses his best judgment to get a great QB while evaluating his current performance and future potential. In Harbaugh's case - truly hoping we have two QBs with upside in Cade and JJ, and that his coaching makes them stronger.
Go Blue!
October 7th, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
Absolutely love this post. But for many posters, "don't let stats and facts stand in the way of a good narrative."
It was a broader review here at mgoblog, but I remember someone, possibly Seth? looked at the star ranking of college players, and then tracked the correlation to success in the NFL. IIRC, there was *some* correlation, but not nearly absolute. I vaguely recall that 5 star recruits were somewhat more likely to be successful proportionally in the NFL, but that roughly the same number of successful NFL players came from 3 star rankings as from 4 & 5 star rankings. It's just that there are a ton more 3 star players.
I also think it would be interesting to see which positions are easiest and hardest to predict success at. I vaguely recall that the OL is a real crapshoot in terms of determining success. (exhibit 1: note the transfer out of Rumler, a supposed 5 star talent on the OL who apparently has been passed by a number of guys who were not ranked as highly.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:08 PM ^
Keep in mind how many times NFL teams miss on their evaluations of quarterbacks. They are investing literally millions of dollars in their quarterbacks, so they leave no stone unturned. Nevertheless, think how many times a first round choice turns into a bust. Colleges recruiting high school quarterbacks is no where near as sophisticated, so there are going to be recruiting misses. I consider Milton, Peters, and McCaffrey to be recruiting misses more than failed development. None of them have done particularly well after their transfers. I think the “Harbaugh doesn’t develop qbs” is a bit overblown. Rudock improved during the season, and he made a serviceable qb of Speight, who was nearly devoid of athletic ability. Admittedly Patterson regressed, probably due to a change in offensive coordinators. As for starting Milton, he’s not the only coach that’s been seduced by a strong arm-Heupal just went through the same thing. In regards to McNamara, according to Sam during banter with Devin Gardner a couple of weeks ago, Shea’s Dad predicted that Cade would be better than Milton or McCaffrey.
October 8th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
" I vaguely recall that 5 star recruits were somewhat more likely to be successful proportionally in the NFL, but that roughly the same number of successful NFL players came from 3 star rankings as from 4 & 5 star rankings."
...but what about COLLEGE success? I don't give a whit how they turn out in the NFL.
I'll take college Vince Young over college Warren Moon.
October 7th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
The reality is that the hit rate of blue chip QBs (those with an 80 or higher grade) is only around 30%.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
Yeah, not sure what to make of this in the current context. Either tOSU's massive recruiting advantages are getting water downed, or alternatively them and Bama and the like have a massive advantage because they're buying a huge percentage of the lottery tickets.
October 8th, 2021 at 7:41 AM ^
Yeah, not sure what to make of this in the current context. Either tOSU's massive recruiting advantages are getting water downed, or alternatively them and Bama and the like have a massive advantage because they're buying a huge percentage of the lottery tickets.
A few things. One, OSU is recruiting more. They have 6 of them compared to UM's 4 in the last 3 cycles alone. I'm sure that will continue to pan out if you keep going back further. Two, UM has had terrible luck with their transfer rate on all positions and QB is not immune. They've lost Speight, Peters, Milton, & McCaffrey. OSU only lost Burrow & Martell. And, OSU brought in more from the transfer portal as well. And, to be honest they've done better with their development and scheme. They've also recruited better at the offensive skill positions to help the QB, not to mention the o-line. Bama I'd have to go back and look into, but I'd guess they also recruit at a higher clip as well and retain their guys better as well. It's always easier to keep blue chip players around when you're in the playoff mix every year. So, if you recruit more, develop better, have better skill players around them, and have a better QB friendly scheme you're chances are better. Even if your scheme sucks, you can't develop, and you aren't recruiting elite skill players and o-lineman, you should be taking at least 1-2 blue chip QBs every cycle and retaining most of them for depth.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
This doesn't really excuse Harbaugh's poor QB development. You list Shea as a miss but he's also the best QB we've had here under Harbaugh. So what does that say?
For every miss Alabama has, they also have guys like Tua and Mac Jones. For every miss Clemson has, they also have guys like Watson and Lawrence. That's what separates the championship programs from, well, us.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
I would argue Wilton had a little more success than Shea given his expectation when he came to Michigan and obviously the team around him helped in 2016…a little off before being injured in 2017, but 2016 was a pretty solid year with no complaints (outside of a dumb TO vs. OSU)
He was about 6 or so points away from being undefeated in 2016
October 7th, 2021 at 10:30 PM ^
Rudock and Speight performed as well as Shea, IMHO.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
I’d rather have more QB recruits in the Caris Levert career trajectory than the Mitch McGary career trajectory. My 2 cents.
October 7th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
Michigan isn’t in the championship game without McGary and LeVert.
If I’m a college coach, every year I’m recruiting a high ranked/best talent guy and a “needs a little development” guy. From there see what happens. By getting both every year you give yourself more options and make yourself somewhat immune when the inevitable transfers happen.
October 7th, 2021 at 9:03 PM ^
Kind of like what we have now with Cade (development QB) and JJ (highly ranked).