Confused as to why so many are high on a Florida team that basically has no quality wins
So now that we know the matchups, how far do you have Michigan going?
ESPN said so. Duh.
Although ironically I'm pretty sure just picking the higher seed to win each matchup will give you a better bracket than what KenPom would predict if you use it for past years. Can't model madness with a computer, it seems
is #1 in KenPom ranking. If you look at recent national champions, they all have one thing in common which is they're all ranked at top 10 in both offensive/defensive efficiency. Florida is the only one who are in top 10 in both catergories. However, the season is a weird season with a lot of upsets and no elite team, we could see an outliner for the first time.
Don't you think Michigan would have top ten in both categories had they played in the SEC? I think it's a legit question
Defense, I'm not so sure. We allowed Penn State to torch our defense and it's not like they would have gone 17-1 in the SEC
The AdjustedO and AdjustedD numbers are basically just PPP on O and D adjusted for strength of schedule and then normalized against an average team. So that ranking for Florida already accounts for their easier schedule and the SEC. I believe it is based off of an adjustment just for the opponents corresponding O or D. That is to say, our AdjO is our PPP altered in some way by our OppD. I don't know what the actual formula is but if you use AdjO = PPP*(100/OppD) or the very similar PPP*(100.6/OppD) you will get something that is pretty close to AdjO. The constant 100.6 being the D1 average efficiency this year.
In any event, Florida is that highly ranked moreso because they have crazy high margins of victory in their wins rather than because of their soft schedule. They also played a pretty decent non-conference schedule with Wisconsin, Marquette, Middle TN St, Arizona and Kansas State so their overall schedule is respectable. No doubt though that Kenpom has them rated too high based on some blowouts because if they were really that good they would have to be insanely unlucky to lose 7 games.
based on his conference rankings and team rankings.
The KenPom rating is definitetly worth consideration. So is the fact that Florida has not won a single game this year in which the final margin was in the single digits (that has to be one of the craziest stats ever). Their closest win was in the SEC tournament, when they beat Alabama by 10. Their losses are by margins of 1, 6, 11, 3, 6, 4, and 3.
Now I think much of the analysis of "clutchness" is overblown, but is it all overblown? Don't you think Florida's players are going to get a little anxious when their second round game is tied up with 3 minutes left?
In short, KenPom may believe in them, but I'm going to be very skeptical until I see them win a close game.
As opposed to our plethora of quality wins?
We have beaten OSU, MSU, KSU, Pitt, Minnesota and Illinois, and were a layup away from beating IU.
All the way.
Because I'm a Michigan fan. And I'm in a pool full of non-Michigan fans who probably won't be picking Michigan (and probably will be picking Louisville). I like rooting for my bracket, but I like rooting for my own team even more. Go Blue.
Rational (yet slightly pessimistic) me says losing to Kansas in the Sweet 16.
What have we seen recently that makes us think we can beat Kansas?
Now it's certainly POSSIBLE that we could beat Kansas, but to flat out say we WILL do it...heart and head part ways.
Agreed. Teams that are on a slide heading into the Tournament always have a very hard time of turning it around. Kind of like my grades going into my junior year . . .
That's actually not as true as people think. How a team fares in its last 10 is not that strongly correlated with tourney performance.
You may be right - I've heard the opposite but have never seen data either way . . .
and my parting ways depends if the bracket I'm entering is for money or pride. But we all know how often upsets happen and not many people gave Rumeal Robinson and crew with an interim head coach much of a chance either. Not a fair comparison, I realize, but it just proves that anything can happen in this cockamamie world.
God Bless his Maize and Blue heart...
It's not recent, but I watched that Kansas - TCU game. A team that shoots that badly in one game can have a repeat performance, particularly when it's a game in an arena with really poor spatial arrangement for basketball (ie Jerryworld and domes in general).
Now that doesn't make it likely enough to make me say we will do it, but it's not in the realm of the totally crazy. (I think Withey will be the biggest problem if we get that far).
has the same thing, actually.
I have them losing to duke in the finals
I would rather lose in the first round than lose to Duke ever.
So you would have wanted the Fab Five to lose in the first round in '92?
I have them winning it all, because I feel like they can if they can get past VCU. But I really have a tough time doing that. VCU has the better coach I hate to say and will be tough for Michigan.
Losing to Georgetown in the Elite 8.
This is where I've got them too. I don't think Kansas is that great, and in my experience watching them Withey is great defensively but won't give us fits offensively like a lot of bigs. I'm not as worried about them. And VCU's press means we get to run all the time. We're best when we run, so that's fine.
But Georgetown seems like a more talented Wisconsin, which is a bad matchup for us.
Bracket is national title. Realistic bracket they lose to Kansas
As I fill out the bracket, I see us having more difficulty with VCU than with Kansas; if we make it past VCU, I see a decent chance of a semifinal rematch with Indiana.
On the other hand, why do I even venture into these unpredictable waters?
Well, I damn well don't have them going out in the first round again, that's for sure.
Winning it all, because I cannot in good conscience pick against my team, as that would cause a very small part of me to be slightly happy if I were right about them losing. Can't do it, I am a, always optimistic homer, and have no problem admitting it.
Otherwise you've lost a LOT of money on pools.
(Maybe if you were around in '92. Had someone win my pool by having Michigan win it all, even though they didn't. Just so many points by even having them there. The next year that wasn't a unique strategy).
...Final Four, MSU beating OSU. Michigan beating IU and defaeting sparty in the final to maximize couch burning and crocodile tears.
That if we beat MSU in the finals it'd be real tears. Assuredly real couches though.
I also have them losing in the Elite 8 to Florida. Some point during the season I convinced myself Florida was a great team despite not finding much statistical data to back it up. I'm worried about VCU but also think VCU could lose to Akron.
Akron will lose big time.
How far will they go? They will be crowned The Most Glorious Champion For All Time Amen at the end of this tourney.
An Indiana, MSU, OSU, Michigan Final Four isn't the craziest idea when you go through the bracket. I think Indiana and OSU are virtual Final Four locks, or as much as you can be given the craziness that can be the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and MSU are much less likely, given that Michigan will probably have to go through Kansas and Florida/Georgetown. MSU also has it tough with Duke and Louisville. While I don't think this outcome is likely, I think it is more reasonable than I initially thought.
To actually answer the question, my heart says Michigan all the way, but my brain says Michigan probably falls to Kansas in the Sweet 16.
I got Michigan and Ohio State in my championship game
I have them winning the NIT
Let's say Michigan wins it all... and I don't pick them. I feel like an asshole. Do I think they'll win it all? Sadly, I don't. However, if they get hot - I think they can beat anyone. They're ranked in the top 15 overall and as such, I feel it's my duty as a lifelong Michigan fan/alum to have them winning it all.
How far down on the list of things you'll think about is who you picked to win it?
I'd take all my pool entry fees I've paid in my life and donate them if it meant we win the title.
Michigan has one of the top pair in the country, if they both get hot, look out.
Guard play could also be what brings down Indiana. They have a Freshman at the point and a short 2 that can shoot, but is slow and does not defend all that well.
To Florida. Their ability to make 3s is what will doom Michigan. I also had UNC upset Kansas in the 2nd round. UNC is one of the hottest team and Kansas is just unfortunate to draw UNC in the next round as a potential matchup.
but you live and die by the 3, and FLA has been dying hard. I actually have them losing to Minny in some of my brackets.
Florida is hard to stop. Michigan 3 pt defense has been bad, even team who don't shoot 3s well shoots 3s well against them. I hope I'm wrong and hope that Minny upset Florida.
Not sure why everyone is really worried about VCU, I know they're pressure D but I feel like press D like that will allow us to run, which is when our game is our best.
I feel like many on this board (and in the media) are taking their turnover margin as them having a great defense. VCU lives and dies on forcing turnovers, and with the exception of the MSU game, UM simply does not turn the ball over. As most know, the tournament is all about matchups and I think UM got pretty lucky with their forecasted matchups all the way to the Elite 8. I believe UM matches up very well with SDSU, VCU, and Kansas, but not so much with Georgetown. I have Michigan losing to Georgetown in the Elite 8.
also, the Full-court press is nearly impossible unless you make your shots. If VCU can't produce on offense, they can't stop a transition team with their pressure if said transition team doesn't need to inbound.
A half court press? I think Trey can do fine almost single-handedly in getting across midcourt.
haha, why don't you give me $5 bucks, i'll kick you in the nuts & we'll call it even?
about 50% Sweet 16 and 50% Elite 8.
as far as they should go, IMO, which is the Sweet 16. I just do not see them going any further than that based off their last 12 games.
I have reached the point where I predict nothing. I have been crushed too many times over the last month to allow for positive outcomes. If they happen, great,
On a purely intellectual level, on a good day, we can play with anyone, at least if Indiana is the gold standard, but who knows what team will show up?
Sweet 16 to Kansas
After that...who knows who will be left? I give Michigan even odds against Kansas...Probably even odds every matchup after that. Don't really see the handwringing over VCU....You really think they're going to turn Trey over? Pessimistic is Sweet 16, optimistic is elite 8, nobody would be surprised if Michigan won it all.
You guys seem to think NCAA officiating is even lazier than B1G officiating. Got news for you: Nobody allows more holding, grabbing and pushing than the B1G. Other B1G teams are going to have to adjust to that, while Michigan has been playing low-contact throughout. GR3 is not going to believe how EASY it is to get to the rim. How much more effective Beilein's offense will be.
Really? Nobody? Vegas has their odds at 18-1 to 22-1. And as SaveFerris detailed in his diary, exactly one 4-seed since 1985 has won it all. There's nothing wrong with optimism, but considering how we ended our season, more than a few people would be pretty surprised if we won six in a row.
But there's no Kentucky this year...Literally and figuratively. Has anybody got odds better than 5-1?
Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook:
Ohio State: 15-1
Michigan State: 18-1
Miami Florida 14/1
Ohio State 16/1
Michigan State 18/1
New Mexico 22/1
Why do MSU and OSU keep going to Final Fours?
Because their teams are composed of well-coached 4 and 5 star athletes...?
Only a lack of talent is. So you just discredited your whole point. Gotcha.
I would be shocked. That's not the biased talking, either.
I seem to remember a team that you don't seem to think has a chance coming back pretty well against your team on the road and beating them in Crisler. Wisconsin is playing well. they held you guys to 50 points...Think they led for a good bit of the game. Didn't PSU beat them in Madison? Basketball is a crazy game. I wouldn't be surprised if OSU won it all either.
As has been mentioned here before, anyone who dismisses the effect of B1G officiating on wins and losses should look at Wisconsin's conference record this year versus their OOC record (or tourney performance last 5 years).
Since Michigan is pretty much opposite Wisconsin (both in style and OOC success versus conference record), the officiating differences should help them.
Wisconsin's record in the NCAA's is almost exactly what you'd expect it to be, if not slightly exceeding expectations, both during Ryan's tenure at large and in the last 5 years. Since Ryan took over, they've made the tournament every year, have only lost in the first round once, have made 5 Sweet 16s and 1 elite 8. 3 of those Sweet 16s are in the last 5 years and they haven't lost in the 1st round during that time.
Their OOC struggles this year can be attributed to Bruesewitz being hurt, Gasser being lost for the year, and having to break in a new point guard after that guy who was their star last year graduated (the nature of being a star on a Bo Ryan team is that no one can remember your name when you're gone. Bruesewitz, we'll remember. And Brust. Fuck him.)
Assuming we win Thursday, what time would the game be on Saturday?
They won't be announced until after some of these games happen. They need to wait to see who is playing. Notice Michigan is playing in prime time again this year. If they win, I'd guess they'll be playing in the evening on Saturday as well.
then losing to VCU.
I have them beating both Kansas and Florida to make it to the Final Four to play Indiana where I cant decide if they win or not. Its hard to see Michigan losing a 3rd time with the way the last 2 games went being close losses and this one on a neutral site.
I have them beating Indiana in the Final Four, then defeating OSU in the NCG. If everything plays out like I think it will, this will be the best tourney ever.
This team should get to the second week. After that, anything can happen. I would project Kansas to be the next opponent, and they aren't exactly an easy game. As for Florida, I think UCLA will emerge from the bottom half of the bracket. Michigan vs UCLA for a trip to the final four would have the potential of being an epic game.
but what the crap do I know. I hope they they make it to the Elite 8, I hope I am wrong of course and that they win it all, but they are so damn unpredictable and I fear the VCU defense. On the other hand, they are a way better team than VCU and could make Shaka look foolish???
I think Louisville will win...but then again, I truly think there are about 10 teams that could win it.
But my brain says ?????
I can't ever remember any Michigan team with such a large variance in what could reasonably be expected. I wouldn't be shocked if they went out in the 1st weekend, but a Final game appearance would not be a complete surprise either.
Going match-up by match-up, assuming a Thursday win, I see every other potential opponent as a 3pt or less spread.
I'll say final game, beating Indiana in the semi-final, losing to Louisville in the final.
set the expectations low, never be disappointed
I have Michigan Beating OSU in the final game. Pride be damned
VCU is the wall.
The real question, god forbid, what happens if we lose in Auburn Hills? Does Beilein start to get heat for not winning more than one game in the b10 Tourney and going out in early in the Big Dance primarily because jump shooting teams that don't play lock down defense are generally not successful in tournaments?
yes indeed zoltan. yes indeed
I have Syracuse beating IU in the elite 8...I'm playing odds of everyone having IU going to the title game
Michigan loses to Gtown in the elite 8
ALL. THE. WAY BABY.
I think there's reason to think M can go far.. they have been ranked #1 this year, are the top 4 seed, and the only one outside of the 1 and 2 seeds to be ranked #*1. Probably should be a 3 seed. POTY at the point. Consistently no TOs, rarely in foul trouble. Forgiving bracket, with a weak 1 in KU and GT as a historically weak Tourney team. Destiny awaits IU and M in the FF.
*Florida is a strong 3, but hey... you gotta beat SOME good teams on the way to the title game!