Off-season stay/go decisions
Yes, it’s a little early for this, but it is a message board after all. And if you don’t like the topic you can move on. With that being said, the Covid year has caused a lot of players to have some eligibility remaining that otherwise would not. And it will lead to some interesting off-season decisions. Taking a look at how these break down by position.
QB: JJ is not draft eligibility, thank goodness.
RB: Corum can leave after this season and he will likely do so. Even if he isn’t a top round pick, i think more often than not a RB will choose to move on. Next year we will likely need to hope that DE can become the feature back. Maybe he will be a guy who gets 15 carries a game and also 50 receptions. I think it’s far more likely we are a more pass heavy offense next year.
WR/TE: Draft eligible but with eligibility remaining guys include Schoonmaker, All, Johnson, Wilson, and yes…Ronnie Bell. This will be an interesting group. Nobody on this list is likely a top NFL draft pick, but there are also many that probably would not return for a fifth or sixth season. Bell is an interesting case. Maybe not an NFL draft pick but not sure if he would be interested coming back for a 6th season.
OL: Hayes, Keegan, Zinter all could return. Assuming Hayes will go for sure, would be nice to return a guard or two.
DL: Mazi and Morris will go obviously, Okie I assume will go. Jenkins is only in his third year and we need to really hope he stays. Seems likely he would.
LB: I swear that Michael Barrett has been around since the Hoke years, but he could get a 6th season. I wouldn’t mind that at all. On a separate note, it appears a redshirt year is all but certain for NHG.
Secondary: Assuming Turner and Sainristil will go even though they have another year. Gemon Green is a 5th year guy, who could come back for a 6th season but has probably shown enough to move on and give the NFL a try. Too bad, would be nice to go into East Lansing next season with Green and McBurrows as the corners.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
I think your thoughts are pretty spot on...if Okie blows up against OSU and/or CCG/playoff/Rose Bowl than maybe he goes, but he is one of the few on the list that could earn waaaaaay more $ if he stays. Edge pass rushers get 1st round money all the time sometimes 5-6 in 1st round
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Could earn more if he stays? Not sure how much you think he’ll make in NIL vs. an NFL rookie contract. He’s also in his 5th year of CFB, so he probably wants to move on. He was on draft boards prior to even joining UM so I’d say you can pencil him in as gone.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Think he means he can play himself into the 1st Round next year with a great showing as the feature rusher (vs. this year where he's basically spot duty and only shown flashes vs. subpar competition).
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:58 PM ^
Okie is gone
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
Okie is not coming back. Not sure why the writers here even insinuate that. He will be 24 in June, he was already a guy on draft radars before transferring here just based on his sheer potential and talent. He's already shown enough this season (on field and from a maturation standpoint) where he's a lock to be drafted, and probably higher than most people assume.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
24! I did not know that, I assumed he was 21 or 22, that very well could change the math on stay vs. go.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, Okie didn’t show much against MSU.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^
They didn’t play him against PSU or MSU cause Okie is pure pass rush and UM was focused on QB contain over sacks He is basically Ouche 2.0
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
The thought of DE + Cabana and Stokes gets me excited for more Lightning and Lightning or Lightning and Thunder.
November 3rd, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
As someone who has stood next to Cabana, he may return punts, but he needs a lot more calories and gym time before he is at RB.
slso, I think Morris goes too. His sack numbers are pretty good
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Think Johnson is a lock at one corner next year !
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^
Most assuredly yes
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:25 PM ^
Based on what I saw live Saturday, not least of which including his physical domination of Coleman on a few reps, Johnson may finish this season as a starter depending on how long Green is out. Johnson looked that ready.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
I was wondering about that. Could he possibly defend Marvin Harrison Jr (6' 4") in The Game? That's probably too much, too soon.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:18 PM ^
Well that is how legends are made.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
Charles Woodson says hello … yeah yeah I know but ya never know lol … Chuck shut the bucknuts up quickly !!!!
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
Maybe OP forgot about our 5-star freshman CB.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I think OP was making a point about the two guys who were assaulted in the tunnel. Will Johnson is clearly a stud.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
While UM might be more pass heavy next year, it seems a bit relative.
Harbaugh seems pretty pleased to have finally stamped his identity of a run heavy, TE heavy, play action guy. They may pass more, but I doubt they pass a lot.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Would love to see more play action with our run game.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
I just listened to a recruiting podcast that was intimating that while no one's openly complaining, there could be guys in the WR room who might be considering transferring. That would obviously be a shame if true. But it does tend to make me wonder whether the Stay-Go discussion ought to be considering not just draft-eligible, but also those on potential Transfer Portal watch.
In the WR room, among others, there's:
- Andrel Anthony
- Darrius Clemons
- Amorion Walker
- Tyler Morris
EDIT: do as I say and not as I did, and keep scrolling. There is a more extensive discussion of this issue below. Also, add Cristian Dixon to that list of WRs.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
JJ would be silly to go to the NFL even if he was eligible. He needs a solid year of 30+ passing touchdowns next year.
Corum looks like Austin Ekeler +10 pounds. Excited to see what his 40 yard dash will look like.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Senior season Andrew Luck is the only Harbaugh QB to throw 30+ TD's.
No one else has ever even hit 25.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
Fair, but JJ is the best Harbaugh QB since Luck IMO.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^
Blake Corum is an interesting one because typically guys his size are more involved in the passing game. Michigan to me hasn't shown a huge desire to get running backs involved in the pass game. At draft time that may be a question scouts ask. It's not to say he can't of course.
JJ McCarthy with his current usage or lack thereof I could see starting lower on the draft boards and then flying up to the top 10 after the combine.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^
Edwards has a big role in the passing game
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
I have a feeling Corum will end up on the Ravens.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Michael Barrett will be running NASA, saving the vaquita dolphin, and inventing the REAL hoverboard we all pined for in Back to the Future II, among other things.
He gone!
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
WR - Sam is eluding to it, but if we do not start to utilize them more, you may see a few walk. Its even harder to recruit them, so this is a concern.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Yep. I have no inside information but just a hunch. I think we'll see several WRs leave after the season and at least one who would be a starter.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
I certainly wouldn't blame them - who'd want to stay in an offense in which you might get 2-3 targets a game?
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
Andrel Anthony, Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, and A.J. Henning would kill for three targets per game.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
You're right - I should adjust my targets down: 1-2 max :(
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
I could see Dixon for sure leaving.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
I can see some guys at the bottom of the depth chart (like Henning and Dixon) going this route but not guys like Anthony or Wilson who will be starters next season. There are plenty of WRs with modest college numbers who get noticed by the NFL (Damaryius Thomas comes to mind) and plenty of big production college receivers who don't get any love from the league. It seems pretty clear the priorities next season should be Anthony, Wilson, Clemons, and Walker. Really young guys like Tyler Morris will get a shot as well. I do think, assuming Corum leaves, that we could be a pass first outfit as I am not sure Edwards will be as good in the lead workhorse role the as Haskins and Corum are.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^
This is why Ronnie Bell will go. Harbaugh will thank him for all he's done for the program, but not invite him back for a 6th year. If guys like Johnson or Bell come back, Andrel is going to be catching 60 balls for USC or Tennessee next year.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
Wth? Bell will be back if he wants to be back. But he has a chance to be drafted and he will go pro. His draft stock will only improve once he goes to the after season bowl and combine. He is a pro prospect. Guy can jump out of the gym and can get open all the time.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:39 PM ^
Yes, I agree w you..
and I doubt its so simple as number of targets.
I mean, some might prefer to go to a middle of the pack team and get more action but also play on a much smaller stage and end up just hoping to get to a decent bowl game...but I'm sure others rather get fewer touches but have those touches come on a significantly bigger stage for a team w a legit shot at a conference championship if not more.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
These guys #1 interest is: What is going to get me drafted the highest.
All the guys will prefer to go to a middle of the pack team and get more action but also play on a much smaller stage and end up just hoping to get to a decent bowl game - if it means they get drafted noticeably higher.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
"If that means...." but of course if one has a crystal ball.
However..
It's not nearly that simple...if so then UM would never have signed the many outstanding WRs it has over the years. I mean just last year they brought in some highly coveted talent at WR and the offense was much like this years.
I'm not saying number of touches is irrelevant bec of course it is but that it's not the only consideration. The weight placed on this is going to vary.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
I love the success, but it’s getting harder to see why top QBs or WRs would choose Michigan. Even with a 5 Star QB on the field, the passing game remains a conservative afterthought.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:18 PM ^
A true sophomore is starting for a Top-5 Michigan team, getting tons of experience and exposure (in a pro-style offense). I don't think JJ is regretting his decision at all. He's getting a great opportunity even if he throws less passes than some other starters. Other recruits may have the same opportunity.
November 4th, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
NFL teams throw it more than they run it and throw it down the field.far more often than Michigan does, so it really isn’t a pro-style offense, at least not a modern pro-style offense.
November 4th, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
We DO NOT have a pro-style offense.
We have what was a pro-style offense in the 1980's-1990's.
The LEAST passing NFL team throws the ball 50.1% of plays.
Michigan this year has thrown on 38.1% of plays.
November 4th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
I really should have scrolled down before posting above on this same topic. Here is the link to the Sam Webb Michigan Insider podcast that was mentioned.
I hate following recruiting because it's such a rollercoaster and, IMHO, in the end a crapshoot regarding what decisions 17- and 18-year-olds will make. But also IMHO Sam raises an excellent, and presumably informed, point that the coaching staff can't take all these star WRs currently on the roster for granted.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
Kiper doesn't have Corum in his top 10 draft eligible running backs for what it is worth. Maybe NIL brings him back for another season. He seems to really enjoy college.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
If he can make it in the league he should go...RB's have limited shelf life - T. Davis, L. Bell, and many others come to mind. Only so many hits you can take at that job...even with NIL, I would assume Corums best business decision is to go pro - he could do Brighton Ford commercials for the rest of his life EVEN if he flames out in NFL.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
I agree. RB's get used up in the NFL. He should take his money and get as many years as he can. He just seems like the type of kid that might surprise everyone and return to school.
I couldn't believe he wasn't in Kiper's Top 10. I'm not sure who has been better this year.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
Love Corum but I would be sad to see him return.
He needs to go earn his retirement. Thankfully Harbaugh isn't Izzo. He won't guilt trip anyone into staying.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
He will never have a higher draft stock than now - he should absolutely go to the draft after this year