SB Nation: Michigan and Iowa projected for the Big 10 Championship
SB Nation has an article up this afternoon entitled,
LINK: Projecting the Big Ten race, in which . . . Iowa and Michigan have the upper hand?
The article looks at the S&P+ numbers through Game 5, and is very positive about Michigan's chances. Here are severalhighlights:
Ignoring preconceptions, Michigan has clearly been the best team in the East so far. The Wolverines have had by far the best defense in a great defensive conference, and their résumé features two of the division's most impressive performances. A dominant shutout of BYU that beat Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA, and a tight loss at a Utah that destroyed Oregon in Eugene (which happens to be the most impressive Michigan State home victim).
While we wait, the numbers suggest the division is Michigan's to lose. That changes if Michigan State takes the Wolverines down in Week 7, but it would take a significant upset for us to learn much this weekend. Michigan's 83 percent win probability against Northwestern might feel high, but Ohio State's (88 percent against Maryland) and Michigan State's (88 percent against Rutgers) do not. The Buckeyes and Spartans should cruise, and Week 7 will be when this race begins to truly take shape.
To me, the question isn't whether Michigan's for real. It's whether Ohio State and Michigan State are ready to look the part. Scoff if you want, but they haven't. Michigan and Iowa in the Big Ten title game. That's what we all expected to see, right?
October 7th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
After all these years, I can't believe I don't want Michigan getting so much positive press. Yet.
key word. yet.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
I'm good with pregame hype and postive coverage. So is Harbaugh. To wit,
October 8th, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 7:58 PM ^
The counterpoint to "letting it get to your head" arrogance is that, when you expect to win because you're confident in your abilities, it's harder to accept losing, so you tend to grind it out a little harder. After the last couple years, an ego boost is probably good for this team to be able to play up to and increase their capabilities.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^
they went 5-7 last year and the losing hurt and impacted them more than it did us, they realize they haven't erased that yet I am sure.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
Depending on the score this weekend, I might be predicting irrational things like "We will beat Michigan State 28-0"
October 7th, 2015 at 6:59 PM ^
...don't affect my irrational prognostications nearly as much as drinking does.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^
If the defense was flat in the 1st half I'd agree with you about the buying hype crap. Also if Harbaugh was not the coach.
Since the defense remained stellar and it was the same offense that goes long stretches in most games looking flat, I just chalked it up to "that's our offense without Smith" thing. rudock can't / won't stretch defenses so stacked lines it is the rest of the year. Isaac and Green can't do anything with stacked lines. So Smith + Johnson it is. And one was gone in this game and the other still getting into his top form.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^
Also, the beauty of having good coaching is that the 3 phases of the game are fluid in nature game to game as the season progresses. The old adage exists for a reason, defenses are going to be ahead of the offenses early on. It takes a lot of repetition on offense as offenses are based on precision and 11 players hitting all cylinders at the exact same time. The offense will come... Now i'm not sure that we'll have an A+ offense this year, but you need an average to decent offense with this elite level defense. Defense wins championships. Lets goooo
October 7th, 2015 at 10:59 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 7:36 AM ^
And you often did not see it even then.
There is no doubt that our coaches wanted to run the ball down Maryland's throat. Just like WVU and a MAC school did. But for some reason, we couldn't, even though the weather was not a large factor and had minimal impact.
Maryland's defense is not extremely talented, but they are very quick, especially side to side and in filling gaps. When ever a Michigan RB got to the LOS, somebody from Maryland was there, already with a running start.
When it became clear Plan A was not going to work - no matter how good it looked in practice - they did not dwell on it. They adapted to what they could do. They exploited Maryland's quickness and reckless pursuit and got them out of position with screens and a jet sweep to score three quick TDs.
There was no 27-27. There was a Plan B and a Plan C, already practiced and ready to go. That's one of the biggest differences from the previous regime.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:46 PM ^
if this D puts up another goose egg
October 7th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
Yep. In fact, I wouldn't mind if we had a "Moon" quarter. Just not a moon game.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:44 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
we can't score "R" points.
October 7th, 2015 at 9:59 PM ^
Borthwestern vs. Bichigan
October 7th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
Auburn 2012: 3-9
Auburn 2013: 12-2
October 7th, 2015 at 8:20 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 7:45 AM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 8:00 PM ^
There should be a lot of hype about us. We're Michigan.
October 7th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 11:07 PM ^
This. Precisely.
Watched Northwestern, they are good on defense, they're small but quick, sideline to sideline, and disciplined. Their offense is attrocious and will not score on our defense unless our offense hands them a freebie turnover.
We'll find out this weekend, but this weekend is going to be a fantastic measuring stick. I think their secondary is better than state's and while they may not have the talent of the MSU/OSU defensive squads, at this point of the season they may be the best disciplined defense we see. If we can get our offense going well enough, which I truly believe we do running downhill right through the teeth of their defense (between the tackles), I think we cruise and then the hype levels we will have to just accept as is. Get ready for the hype Ladies and Gents if this happens.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
I'm sure when the Spartans get their guys back from injury they'll be playing like the 1972 Dolphins. WMU is just really good.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
to drink the Kool-Aid as much as the next fan...but this seems outrageous at this point.
We take down MSU and I'll start drinking...even if this guy is serving:
October 7th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^
too late
October 7th, 2015 at 5:25 PM ^
I really Really REALLY wish I could un-see that picture.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
I think Iowa and UM have 2 quality wins between them at this point out of 10 games. BYU Wisc. I guess you can give Iowa Pitt if you want.
It's a bit over the top but what the hell. Iowa does avoid UM MSU OSU so I can at least see the logic statement there. NW avoids MSU and OSU so I still like them to win the West at this point even if they lose this week. Defense wins championships ?
By the way both Conklin and Kieler practiced Tuesday for MSU so looks like they will have both tackles back for the UM game.
Schedule gets tougher from here save rutgers so it will be interesting to see how the team reacts.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^
fuck really? full-on practice? great
October 7th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
let Rudock go to M. Could make for some good drama.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:41 PM ^
After almost two years of lurking you were compelled to post this??
October 8th, 2015 at 1:01 AM ^
Do you really look up the last time every user posted to make a comment on it? That's weird.
Or should a follower of this blog post all the time before you will deign to care about their post?
October 7th, 2015 at 5:52 PM ^
I like a good drama. That would be the favorite drama of the year for me.
October 7th, 2015 at 11:16 PM ^
Nice drama but that is very far away.
My favorite drama of the year however would be the Shakespearan (dare I say Greek?) tragedy if we beat State after they finally get the respect of being ranked in the top 5 after clamoring for respect all these years. They finally get ranked high for a team that honestly doesn't have nowhere near the defense of the past few state squads.
October 8th, 2015 at 7:49 AM ^
I never understood why we would let Rudock transfer in-conference.
Nobody expected an Iowa - Michigan matchup in the B1G Championship, but strange things happen. Why take any chances?
October 7th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
Lots of running the ball, average QB play, and some hot punting action. Its as the Big Ten should be
October 7th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
The media will be full crazy next week when we roll on NW and if Sparty wins.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
I don't care what the numbers say. I don't care how good our defense looked. If we can't put up points, we can't win the game. The first half of that Maryland game scares the crap out of me. If I see us consistently moving the ball against NW, I will feel much better about our chances with the rest of the schedule, but I'm preparing myself for M00N part 2.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
Technically it will be N00M this time around!
October 7th, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:36 PM ^
HAHAHAHa
October 7th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^
This offense is still working out the kinks. It may be awhile before it runs as well as it can, and who knows what that will look like. But I can assure you of this, Michigan is better equipped to deal with Northwestern than it is with Michigan. And that is because it has better athletes and the coaching to make that athletic edge a winning one.
Unless the offense implodes, I look for Michigan to win all three phases of Saturday's game and come out with another solid victory.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:35 PM ^
We won by 28.