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Recruiting Streak Ending?

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Last post
January 21st, 2011 at 1:38 PM
#1
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2226
Recruiting Streak Ending?

In light of this recruiting race to the finish, I thought I'd review the history of recruiting.  I'd already known Michigan has been a dominant recruiter but I wanted to clarify my opinion.

Below is a table showing Scout's recruiting rankings for the Big Ten since 2002 (all the data they had):

Things to consider:

  • Michigan hasn't ever had a class ranked lower than 19th Nationally.
  • Michigan has never had class ranked lower than 3rd in the Big Ten.
  • Only Ohio St. and Penn State have ever had classes that ranked higher than Michigan in the Big Ten.
  • Michigan classes ranked on average in the top 10 for the period.
  • Over the nine classes before this one, Michigan had 4 top classes, 3 second ranked classes, and 2 third ranked classes in the Big Ten.

While I realize this data is limited, I think it's safe to say that it is reflective of our history.  I'm sure we all agree that recruiting rankings aren't perfect, however they do correlate to success.  Let's hope Hokes race to the finish allows us to try to keep our top three streak alive and our streak of beating State for recruits.

BTW- I reviewed Rivals rankings as well and the results are nearly identical.  Their data wouldn't copy and paste well so I stuck with Scout.

Also - Indiana is pathetic.

Edit - I replaced the table with an image of the table for size.  I hope you can still read it.

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:40 PM | This class is faaaaaaaaaaar (Score:1)
DGDestroys
DGDestroys's picture
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 18193

This class is faaaaaaaaaaar from over

Twitter // Recruiting Work// Email

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:43 PM | FAAAR? (Score:1)
BlueUPer
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1321

What would dumba$$ Corso say?  

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:44 PM | Hokeamania (Score:1)
brewandbluesaturdays
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Joined: 01/23/2009
MGoPoints: 3738

Nuff Said...

Don't call it a comeback

David Cone is my homeboy...

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:59 PM | I've been here for years (Score:1)
iawolve
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Joined: 11/03/2008
MGoPoints: 2491

Rocking my peers and putting suckas in fear

Making tears rain down like a monsoon

Listen to the bass go boom

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:25 PM | You don't (Score:1)
DrewandBlue
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Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 983

have to wear a patch on your arm to have honor.

-Tom Cruise to Lance Corporal Dawson A Few Good Men

You don't have to be in the top 25 to have respect!

Knowledge without wisdom is a load of books on the back of an ass.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:32 PM | do you not think we will fill (Score:1)
white_pony_rocks
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Joined: 02/16/2009
MGoPoints: 947

do you not think we will fill all of our spots?  Maybe im wrong but i think we have 20 scholarships for this year, we have 11 right now per rivals.  if we can get 5 4* and 4 3* then that gives us 8 4* and 12 3* recruits.  looking at the team rankings, sure we might not pass south carolina and arkansas just because of our disadvantage in numbers but we should be able to pass louisvill, ole miss, and stanford

Soon to be the #1 fitness and training center in AA

http://www.annarbortrainer.com

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January 22nd, 2011 at 9:36 AM | do you think we will fill the (Score:1)
white_pony_rocks
white_pony_rocks's picture
Joined: 02/16/2009
MGoPoints: 947

do you think we will fill the class though?

Soon to be the #1 fitness and training center in AA

http://www.annarbortrainer.com

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January 22nd, 2011 at 5:58 PM | After today, we now have 14 (Score:1)
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2226

After today, we now have 14 commits and we're still recruiting a dozen more players to fill 6 more spots.  I think we have a good chance to fill the class. Unfortunately, even if we fill the class, it will probably be one of the least impressive ever.

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:44 PM | we would have been fine (Score:1)
hailtothevictors08
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Joined: 06/11/2009
MGoPoints: 877

with a top class had we keep rich rod ... he had 2 rivals 5 stars locked in with hart and frost along with the others we have lost out on

i also believe if we had gotten harbaugh in early december we'd have been stacked

the truth is you cant change to a non super famous coach in mid jan and get a good class

Just Win Baby

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:34 PM | sorry (Score:1)
kfullenkamp
Joined: 06/22/2010
MGoPoints: 55

Harbaugh was going to coach in the orange bowl no matter what, and see was long gone unfortunately

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January 21st, 2011 at 5:37 PM | Great point... (Score:1)
Sven_Da_M
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2023

... I can't stand the moronic "we could have had Harbaugh if..." drivel.

There's no way he would jam Andrew Luck like that.

RichRod recruited highly-ranked, fast ninjas who got their asses kicked by MSU, PSU, tOSU and Wiscy.

Hoke-a-mania, Baby!

 

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:44 PM | Things to consider:  1.  (Score:1)
MGoPHILLY
Joined: 04/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1920

Things to consider: 

1.  Quantity doesn't equal quality.  The recruiting services rank based on a point system.  Therefore, teams are punished for taking smaller classes, and schools who oversign are rewarded.  IMO, a better indicator of the class would be average star ranking.

2.  A lot can happen in between now and signing day.  I expect to see us add another 7-9 recruits in this class.  This will give us a huge jump in the rankings.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:41 PM | 1.  Quantity correlates with (Score:1)
Tha Stunna
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Joined: 10/13/2008
MGoPoints: 963

1.  Quantity correlates with quality.  When you have stars and no depth, you're extremely vulnerable when you get JT Turner or Cissoko.  Oversigning helps a school even if it's immoral.  Average star ranking is only part of the picture.

2. 7-9 more recruits with the same star average would be a miracle.  RR had a great track record and an exciting new offense, and I don't think he got 9 recruits.

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:14 PM | A slight correction (Score:1)
Derek
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2390

You're vulnerable with Justin Turner when he doesn't work out and you have JT Floyd as your best cornerback.

LSA, Class of 2009

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January 21st, 2011 at 4:11 PM | Justin Turner went by JT as well. (Score:1)
OMG Shirtless
OMG Shirtless's picture
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1505

 I remember it being very confusing during their recruitment.

Scout had him as JT - http://michigan.scout.com/a.z?s=162&p=8&c=1&nid=3270407

Rivals had him as Justin - http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/football/recruiting/player-Justin-Turner-73234;_ylt=AlT14dl8Xtpxq.FIR2E8WMtmspB4

I put up a tough front, but deep down I just want to be held.

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January 23rd, 2011 at 1:11 PM | Touché (Score:1)
Derek
Derek's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2390

Not sure why I got the down-vote. I think this reply sufficed to set the record straight.

LSA, Class of 2009

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January 23rd, 2011 at 1:35 PM | Surprisingly, it wasn't me! (Score:1)
OMG Shirtless
OMG Shirtless's picture
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1505

 I neg tons of shit, more than most, but I didn't neg your comment.

I put up a tough front, but deep down I just want to be held.

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January 24th, 2011 at 6:01 AM | Heh (Score:1)
Derek
Derek's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2390

Well, I feel all better now. It's amazing what one MGoPoint can do.

Also, I figured it wasn't you, but the commenter I replied to.

LSA, Class of 2009

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:47 PM | Wisconsin (Score:1)
travelingblue
Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 49

Pretty crazy how this past Wisconsin team that went to the Rose Bowl never had a recruiting class higher than 4th in the Big Ten and 26th nationally.

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January 21st, 2011 at 4:47 PM | Enough Said (Score:1)
GoBlue007
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Joined: 02/16/2010
MGoPoints: 292

Thats because they are Wisconsin. 

"I want to express my thanks to you, as a graduate of the Michigan of the East, Harvard University." - John F. Kennedy, 1960 Michigan Union

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:47 PM | Look at who's in front of UM (Score:1)
mgoSk
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Joined: 06/09/2010
MGoPoints: 1153

Look at who's in front of UM at this point though. At the end of the signing period I expect that we'll recover a fair amount relative to the Big Ten simply by getting more guys, quantity counts for these rankings and UM's class is like 2/3's filled. Nationally, though, I'd be surprised if we made inroads there, say crack the top 25 (which right now, only has one big ten team in it according to your research, although I'd imagine Nebraska is in there).

Leaders and Best

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:47 PM | fwiw, were not 2010 again (Score:1)
Skiptoomylou22
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Joined: 11/29/2008
MGoPoints: 1327

whatever freshman we get shouldnt even be playing this year (unless ya know, theyre good) so the size of this class doesnt bother me, especially with the core of our team being Soph-Juniors

Bo' Money Bo' Problems

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:48 PM | This. Is. Michigan. (Score:1)
Mich_Faithful
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Joined: 11/08/2010
MGoPoints: 6467

This. Is. Michigan.

How 'bout I punchisize your face, for free.

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:50 PM | T I M (Score:1)
DrewandBlue
DrewandBlue's picture
Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 983

T I M

Knowledge without wisdom is a load of books on the back of an ass.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:53 PM | . (Score:1)
Moofis Footbone
Joined: 01/11/2011
MGoPoints: 230

.

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:51 PM | How did those top ranked (Score:1)
mfandet
Joined: 08/01/2010
MGoPoints: 29

How did those top ranked classes work out?  Find the right talent get it here, dont worry about number of stars, in my opinion I think looking at the other schools offered mean more then a star rating.

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:13 PM | Recruit ranking is irrelevant.. (Score:1)
swaglikeM
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Joined: 11/02/2009
MGoPoints: 187

it's all about how you play with the talent you have.  TCU may get 4 4*'s a year if that and they beat our conference champion.  We get 5 * players who end up kicked off the team and performing terribly when they are on the field.  It's nice on signing day for hype for the coming season but that's about it until they perform on the field.

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:52 PM | I could possibly see us (Score:1)
aaamichfan
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Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14220

I could possibly see us getting to third in the B10, but even that seems like kind of a stretch.

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:53 PM | correlation does not equal (Score:1)
Team Douche
Team Douche's picture
Joined: 01/17/2011
MGoPoints: 235

correlation does not equal causation

 

 

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:53 PM | I don't want to close the (Score:1)
Magnus
Magnus's picture
Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 27790

I don't want to close the book on Michigan's recruiting just yet.  Michigan's looking good for several recruits, and you never know what might happen in these next couple weeks.  I think Mattison is going to be a boon for Michigan, if not now, then in the next couple years while he's here.  We might pull a few 4-stars before all is said and done.

Twitter - Recruiting Update: June 17

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:54 PM | Another name to look for. (Score:1)
Moofis Footbone
Joined: 01/11/2011
MGoPoints: 230

Antonio Poole LB from Ohio.

 

BobLichtenfels Bob Lichtenfels
 
According to Bill Greene, Winton Woods (Ohio) 4-star OLB Antonio Poole is undecided on (1/28) visit it will be Mich or Pitt

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:55 PM | Interesting (Score:1)
PhillipFulmersPants
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Joined: 01/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1177

final two choices, considering late coaching staff changes (and one fairly ugly PR problem with the hiring-no-wait-firing of Haywood).  

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January 21st, 2011 at 1:57 PM | I thought 2007 would have (Score:1)
bluenyc
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Joined: 06/25/2010
MGoPoints: 7030

I thought 2007 would have been better following a strong season.  Thanks for the work.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:02 PM | Remember everyone last year (Score:1)
mejunglechop
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Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6423

Remember everyone last year emphatically saying recruiting was not down and that it was a good class? People who pointed out how many middling three stars we took became the "3 star mafia" and Ray Vinopal was lionized. It was easily Michigan's biggest class since the recruiting sites started and also easily the lowest ranked. It's amazing how in the tank some people were for Rodriguez. And before OSU it's not like this class was shaping up to be great either. When he wasn't riding the massive hype train in 2008, Rodriguez just didn't get results recruiting. And don't get me started on  the roster imbalances.

Galileo was also chastised.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:29 PM | I agree that 2010 was a bit (Score:1)
Magnus
Magnus's picture
Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 27790

I agree that 2010 was a bit of a downer, but I still like what we got in 2009. 

Denard Robinson, Tate Forcier, Quinton Washington, Cam Gordon, Taylor Lewan, Craig Roh, Fitzgerald Toussaint.

There are a few role players in the rest of 'em, but that's a pretty solid crew.  Everyone but Forcier from the above group could turn out to be very good.  Lewan might be a superstair, Roh could be if used correctly, and I think Toussaint will be a stud whenever he's healthy.  Obviously Denard is already in the Heisman discussion, and Cam Gordon could be All-Big Ten as long as he's not playing free safety.

Twitter - Recruiting Update: June 17

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January 21st, 2011 at 6:17 PM | I agree with that - hopefully (Score:1)
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 18039

I agree with that - hopefully we can add Mike Jones, Will Campbell, Michael Schofield and Je'Ron Stokes after this year.  All of those guys (outside of BWC) haven't had a chance to really shine yet since they've had good players ahead of them, but I think all of them have potention to be more than role players.

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January 21st, 2011 at 6:56 PM | Big Will may shine in a 4-3 next to Martin... (Score:1)
Brightside
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Joined: 02/17/2010
MGoPoints: 353

Someone commented that we should expect a 3-4 from GM, but I am hoping that is not the case...  I guess we'll see

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January 21st, 2011 at 8:11 PM | They've been telling the (Score:1)
Magnus
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Joined: 07/17/2008
MGoPoints: 27790

They've been telling the recruits that they're going to be running a 4-3, so I'm going to operate under the assumption that the coaches aren't liars.

Twitter - Recruiting Update: June 17

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:16 PM | What? Michigan was #2 in the Big 10 in recruiting last year. (Score:1)
robpollard
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Joined: 06/03/2009
MGoPoints: 601

According to chart above, Michigan had the #12 class in the nation class last year, 2nd best in the Big 10 - better than OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. The other two RR years were #14 and #6, which is pretty darn good.  How was recruiting "down? B/c you don't like Ray Vinopal?

And before OSU this year, we had commitments (silent or otherwise) from 5-stars Hart and Frost, 4-stars Crawford, Fisher and Bryant, 3 star Lucien, and a top K (I'm probably missing one or two others).  Who knows what would have changed (e.g., Dee Hart), but that class would have certainly been Top 20.  Now we'll be lucky to be Top 30.

The biggest recruiting problem on the above list was that #2 class in 2005 was an absolute time bomb.  That class had so many flameouts and injuries even before RR set on campus (Bass, Forcier, Germany, McKinney, Richards, Schifano, Sears, Simpson, Slocum, Zribel, and even Grady if you count his off the field problems) that it might be one of the most overrated classes in the history of college football.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/football/recruiting/commitments/2005/mi...

It only ends once. Anything that happens before that, is just progress.

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:24 PM | The signees in February 2010 (Score:1)
Magnus
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MGoPoints: 27790

The signees in February 2010 weren't bad, but by the time the season started, Michigan had already lost 5 of those guys - most notably the best recruit from the entire class, Demar Dorsey.  It was kind of a weak year when all was said and done.  A few guys will probably be good (Gardner, Marvin Robinson, Hagerup), but I think that ranking was a bit inflated.

Twitter - Recruiting Update: June 17

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:48 PM | Agreed, but two things (Score:1)
robpollard
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Joined: 06/03/2009
MGoPoints: 601

1) Yes, that ranking is def. a little inflated (e.g., Dorsey), but I have no idea if other teams lost their top guy (e.g, MSU just lost their #2 guy, Boisture) as well.  I will assume they did not lose as many as we did, though, so perhaps the ranking falls 5 or so places in reality.  It's still a top 3 Big 10 class.

2) The much bigger point, of course, is it is WAY too early to tell how good the 2010 class is. All we can talk about is how it was ranked at the time, which was the point of the post.  In the end, it almost certainly won't be an all-timer class, but who knows how good or bad Furman, Pace, Avery, Black etc will be.

It only ends once. Anything that happens before that, is just progress.

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January 21st, 2011 at 5:20 PM | According to Rivals it was (Score:1)
mejunglechop
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Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6423

According to Rivals it was our worst year. They had us at 20th. That number is inflated because it's the biggest signing class we've ever had and it counts 5 guys who didn't make it through fall camp- also easily the biggest number since '02. I have no problem with Ray Vinopal, I just think it's silly how many people were saying he was a stud for no discernable reason other than to defend Rodriguez's decision to offer him. Compare that class to our others and look at the percentage of 4+* and the percentage of middling (5.6) 3 star recruits or worse. But that doesn't tell the whole story- we took 5 receivers last year, no nose tackles and one olineman! Look at how many slot receiver/running backs scholarships we've spent and we don't have a game breaker at either.

Galileo was also chastised.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:13 PM | Remember last year the class (Score:1)
Umichmadness
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Joined: 12/03/2010
MGoPoints: 223

Remember last year the class was good but not great, then RR wrapped up real nice with Dorsey (even though he didn't show) and others. It helped save the class, so give hoke a chance, he's doing pretty well for coming in so shorthanded.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:18 PM | Mattison will at least get (Score:1)
Umichmadness
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Joined: 12/03/2010
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Mattison will at least get these 4* 5* recruits on campus, and you know what they say, "during a visit to the UM campus, anything can happen"

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:22 PM | also (Score:1)
jaggs
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Joined: 02/03/2009
MGoPoints: 2470

I don't know why the sites don't do this, but Nebraska should IMO be considered BT for this years class. These players are coming to Nebraska knowing they will be playing in the Big Ten. They currently have a great class and push M even further down.

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:34 PM | Transition period (Score:1)
Mlegacy
Joined: 02/04/2010
MGoPoints: 51

This is a transition period and needs to be taken in to account. Even if this class finishes outside of the top 20, I wouldn't consider it the end of a streak, whatever that entails. Its really just a hiccup based solely on recruitng sites which is another argument I won't get in to. I've got faith in this class and we are filling positions of need which is the important thing.

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January 21st, 2011 at 2:36 PM | A few points in Michigan's favor (Score:1)
oakapple
Joined: 02/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1319

Yes, it’s true that Michigan is highly unlikely to have a top-20 class this year, and is highly unlikely to continue its streak of finishing among the top 3 in the Big Ten.

There are a few points that make the situation a bit better. It’s not just who you sign, but who you retain. Michigan’s class last year (12th nationally; 2nd B10) included two four-star kids (Demar Dorsey, Austin White) and a three-star (Antonio Kinard) who either weren’t admitted, or who didn’t stay. The two best kids in the 2009 class (14th nationally; 3rd B10) were Justin Turner, who never played a down; and Will Campbell, who hasn’t played anywhere near the five stars he was credited with.

Despite recruiting classes that were always 20th nationally or better, Michigan has finished the season unranked for three consecutive years. That is because Michigan under-performed in relation to its talent. This is particularly true on defense. Michigan had roughly the 110th-ranked defense in 2010, despite having nowhere near 110th-ranked talent. Even allowing for injuries and youth, Michigan's defense and special teams should not have been anywhere near as bad as they were. Coaching was the difference between Michigan's performance, and what would have been expected given the talent on the team.

Given the 85-scholarship limit and attrition, most schools sign close to 25 kids per year. Even had Rodriguez stayed, Michigan was probably going to sign around 19 or 20, because the graduating class was small. If you’re going to have a bad recruiting year, the year when you don’t have as many to give out is probably the right time to have it. I mean, imagine if Michigan had 25 vacancies instead of 20. The problem would even be worse.

Stanford finished 4th in the final AP poll this year, and their classes over the last five years average out to around 32nd, and they never had a class in the top 10. If Stanford can play that well without ever notching a top-10 class, Michigan can survive one bad year.

Marc Shepherd
New York, NY

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January 21st, 2011 at 5:48 PM | Personal foul... (Score:1)
Tater
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Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10491

...15 yards for piling on. 

The team didn't underachieve; it was playing boys against men on defense.  I don't have the charts, but the teams they lost to had almost all upperclassmen at all positions.  If anything, the team overachieved.  It managed to beat everyone to whom it was close in talent, and its BT lossses were to three teams that won eleven regular season games and two that won seven, for a total of 47 and an average of 9.4 regular season wins. 

I really don't know how you expected a defense with 8 freshmen and RS freshmen in the rotation to beat teams with upperclassmen that were all ranked at one point.  I have a feeling that if the defense does better this year from age alone, you will be one of those who is still pissing on RR. 

Lastly, except for me, almost everyone predicted Michigan to win six or seven games last year.  They won seven.  How can that possibly be considered "underachieving?"

 

 

 

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January 22nd, 2011 at 5:46 PM | And I have a feeling that if (Score:1)
braylon8500
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Joined: 08/04/2009
MGoPoints: 85

And I have a feeling that if the defense does get significantly better, you'll be one of the people here claiming that better defensive coaching had nothing to do with it and that it was all a result of an extra year in the system.

It's no secret that Obi Ezeh couldn't figure out where to line up for 3 years. Even with Demens, we consistently saw him lining up too close to the DT and getting swallowed by an OL. We saw the defense constantly taking bad angles, missing lots of tackles partially due to poor technique, and not communicating coverages properly. I would argue that most of that has to do with poor coaching than youth. Over RR's tenure, we've unquestionably struggled to develop our defensive players (please don't bring up Mike Martin as a counterexample).

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January 21st, 2011 at 3:15 PM | Wow, I only just realized we (Score:1)
MGoRob
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Joined: 03/14/2010
MGoPoints: 2288

Wow, I only just realized we only have 2 offensive recruits currently.  RB Hayes and OL Posada (who is a soft verbal?).  I find this unbelievable but obviously necessary.

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