Record Number of Out of State Commits?
We are all well aware of the number of commits recently from out of state.
It looks like Michigan has 17 commits, with only THREE from in-state and ZERO from Ohio. This is not only not typical, it seems bizzare based on our history. I assume it is a record breaking number of OOS commits, but I think it may be shattering the record.
Does anyone know?
Also, it seems this might be the most OOS commits for any school in the Big Ten. I looked back at Meyer's classes at OSU (with his focus on Florida) and he still relied heavily on in-state talent. I don't think Ron Zook took that many Florida kids (but he did recruit well).
Part of it is Michigan is very far behind the in state recruits and has needed to reach down a bit for players who don't have established relationships with local coaches. Easier to do that when you have a much wider base to recruit from. Look at Meyer's 2013 class of Ohio recruits (4 of the top 10) vs his 2014 class (6 of the top 10 including all 5 of the top 5). It takes some time to build relationships in new areas and Michigan is behind both MSU and OSU with these kids and they are better programs now.
You can already see a lot more local kids with Michigan as their leader in 2016 where the staff is closer to starting at the same time as the other local programs. The satelite camps were a way to kick start Michigan's recruiting, find kids still early in the recruiting process, and build in roads for the future. But there should definitely be more local kids in future classes once the staff is established.
It's not that out of the ordinary for UM. I remember one year back in the Lloyd Carr days, at his signing day press conference, we had signed nine instate guys that year and he said it was the most we had ever signed. Obviously nine is more then three but it still suggests that we don't often take a lot of instate guys.
Didn't recruit Ohio much this year. The Harbaugh staff didn't re-offer some of the recruits that the previous staff offered(Ferns, Kraemer, etc.).
According to 247:
Out of the Top 10 in Ohio, only Luke Farrell, Justin Layne and Liam Eichenberg held offers from Michigan.
If they get just one guy from there this year it won't be worse than 2007 when Michigan came away empty handed which is something, IMO, you just cannot do.
That state has the best HS talent in the Midwest. Even the guys that aren't ranked that high are good football players.
Willie Henry is an example I use often.
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Don't forget Jake Ryan!!
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He obviously hasn't punted on Ohio; one of the camps was there.
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He obviously hasn't punted on Ohio; one of the camps was there.
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Fair enough, but what good did that recruiting approach do us?
Bob Chappius
Jim Mandich
Dan Dierdorf
Dennis Franklin
Gordon Bell
Rob Lytle
Jarrod Bunch
John Kolesar
Elvis Grbac
Desmond Howard
Vada Murray
Ricky Powers
Marcus Ray
Charles Woodson
Shawn Crable
Prescott Burgess
Mario Manningham
...and a bunch more
It's all about relationships, MSU and ND have been recruiting Ohio for years and this Michigan staff has very little history there. Takes time to get going as recruitig has gotten earlier and earlier.
OSU has unsurprisingly had their pick, though this year the two top OL were Catholic school kids that went to ND.
MSU have done fine, mainly with guys that weren't high choice guys for Meyer and co. but it's puzzling to me that there are a handful of top Ohio guys that it seemed like Michigan never even made an effort toward.
We'll never know if any of these guys would've been real options but as an opposing fan, I don't see the virtue in effectively conceding a talent-rich state to your 2/3 main rivals.
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I don't think they are conceding the state to OSU/MSU, but realize they are way behind with the kids there are don't think they have a good shot for 2016. Meyer was similarly much more nationally focused when he came in the first year and then got a lot more from Ohio the year after that. When you don't have the relationships the other local schools do you need to broaden your base because you will have a lower hit rate overall no matter where you recruit.
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OSU is also the only Power 5 program in state. That means the vast majority are OSU fans growing up.
Not true. Ted Ginn Sr was VERY pro-Tressel but he definitely changed his stance re Michigan when Hoke arrived. While he didnt "encourage" his kids to go to Michigan he absolutely did nothing to stop them and was very supportive of Michigan's efforts down here. The fact that the "A" kids, as you put it, want to go to OSU has much more to do with thier upbringing and the fact that the Buckeyes are the only game in town if you're a talented HS player here in Ohio.
I don't know what the relationship is like between Harbaugh & Ginn but it would not surprise me if Jim's public persona rubbed Teddy the wrong way. He liked Hoke because he was "one of us" coaching-wise and if Ginn percieved Harbaugh as thinking he was better than him he would definitely not make things easy on us recruiting-wise.
I know we're in the "summer of Harbaugh" but if we have really pulled the plug on Ohio recruiting that's pretty short-sighted IMO because any good player we get does NOT go to MSU or OSU and now we're on the outside looking in. It's one thing to lose out on players it's quite another to make a decision to not recruit a state - especially one as close, with players as good and as historically important to Michigan as Ohio has been.
I doubt its a "decision". Most of 2016s OH guys are spoken for - we're late to the game and we dont have a guy on staff who is a bad ass presence in OH. We tried to get a guy like Marrow who has been plumming "MSU" type recruits for Kentucky but we didnt get him. 3 years ago UK and MSU were in battles for all sort of OH 2nd level type kids - it was a funny thing actually But now obviously MSU took it to another level on the field with results the past 2 years and they are getting a higher caliber OH kid. (#1 RB last year, #1 WR, QB this year) Dantonio was a DC there, Narduzzi is a Youngstown guy etc etc.
People overcomplicate things. UM has not been a good program for most of these kids lives - or at least the part where a 16-17 year old follows sports. You are asking them to turn down an in state program which has beat UM 10 of 12 and has had a near historic run the past 3 years with what is considred 1A or 1B best NCAA coach in the nation for a program that in their lifetime usually goes 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 but has a cool helmet. Or we are competiing with MSU who in the past half decade has mauled UM on the field and in the W/L column with a bunch of coaches who are OH pedigree.
Kids want to win. Their "timeline" of historic relevency is at max 6-8 years. UM has mostly sucked in that window. While 2 key rivals have not - even ND was in a NC game a few years back. It's not complicated to understand. It's got to change on the field and its going to happen with less OH recruits than in the past. Once winning happens, more OH kids will come.
I don't mind the strategy. I mean, it's okay for Ohio to have a down year in talent if that's the case. I think we'll always have a natural pipeline to Ohio, so if we can get similar or better talent down south and establish some new pipelines, I'm all for it.
Florida kids are better at football than Michigan kids.
I'm all for crootin the south.
This idea that we have to recruit mostly kids from Michigan/Ohio is horseshit.
Harbaugh is going to win
But it's good to get a few players from each state each year.
Define good. Good because it makes some kid's mommies and daddies happy? Or good because it helps us win. I hope we are finally over the "take the kid from Michigan over a better player to keep up appearences" bulllshit.
It's only good to take a player if the player looks fits what you are trying to do. I dont care where the kid is from. If nobody in Michigan fits the mold of what Harbaugh is looking for I hoope he doesn't take a single one. I would like to win football games again instead of being every high school coach in Michigans best buddy.
For recruiting Ohio, selling jerseys is a good start.
And I do believe the Harbaugh must recruit Michigan as his number one priority, and lock down the best players in the state.
Has that ever happened before?
Have we ever gotten that many recruits from Florida and Alabama?
Here are the raw numbers of in vs out of state recruits since 2002. This does include recruits that signed but didn't play like Demar Dorsey of 2010.
Fortunately, I still have some of this data from an old diary. Cumulatively (not year-to-year per se), nearly 70% of Michigan's incoming freshmen since 1960 came from either the state of Michigan, Ohio or Illinois with states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Texas, California, New Jersey and a couple others rounding out the next 20% - the remaining 10% are basically from all over the place including places outside the United States.
From that perspective, it's unusual certainly for us not to have someone from Ohio in a given class, but it doesn't really mean anything other than maybe a shift in strategy under Harbaugh (and I assume they still work Ohio for its deep talent base). The reliance on in-state talent diminished considerably over starting in the 1970s and going into the 1990s and began to increase again in the 2000s while there was alway a constant hum of activity (and consequently, players) from Ohio.
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care about Ohio after reading this thread. The lack of offers to Ohio kids mysifies me, and to me it's an issue/may be an issue because it just seems obvious that given A- the talent rich nature of the state every year, and B- the proximity, that we stand a better chance with kids in Ohio than we do anywhere else outside MI. I mean, all things being equal, it's much easier for us to pull a kid from Ihio than from CA or FL. So why not be throwing offers out there?
Because at this point its a waste of time to go after them.
Only 4 of the top 20 kids in OH are not committed. And we are not getting any of those 4 - one is Michael Ferns brother. Not coming. The next 2 are massive OSU leans. The 4th is a MSU v OSU battle.
http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeRecruitRankings?Stat…
2016 was already lost so there is not much of a good reason to waste resources trying to flip kids who are not coming. Unless you are flipping kids from Cincinnati or Kentucky or Pitt down in the 20s or 30s.
People are saying this year was lost, but was it the same way in February when Harbaugh could start throwing offers out? If so then point made.
February was signing a class for 2015
Feb 6 thu Apr 14 is a "quiet period". Then Apr 15 thru May 31 opened another evaluation period.
Doesnt mean you cannot land a guy in Feb-mid Apr but its mighty tough when you are starting a relationship, your entire coaching staff doesnt have one guy who is a beast in OH and you are competing with a NC and a team who has decades of coaching in the state plus two back to back top 5 appearances. UM was basically really starting mid Apr for these guys that OSU didnt want. And ND won 2 head to heads vs OSU because as someone else said they went to catholic HSs.
The top 6 guys OH landed had commit dates of: 3/15, 11/14, 1/15, 6/14, 10/14, 4/15.
So 3 were committed before Harbaugh was hired, and the other 3 were Jan, March, April 2015. And probably recruited for 18+ months by the time they said yes. The MSU guys were DeWeaver and Justin Layne. ND got 2 guys.
By that point you are down the list to guys like Tony Butler who committed to Pitt and people think can flip to UM but has called OSU a dream offer and if he gets that offer (which I bet Urban will if he flips to UM...but only then) he'd probably go to OSU.
The next tier of guys are people Kentucky and Northwestern are landing.
So long story short - MSU is basically getting the OH kids we used to. And we need to start winning and stop looking like a goofball team.
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I moved to Texas a few years ago and after watching four years of Texas hs football I'd only recruit a Michigan kid if he's a can't miss.
I don't think an all-star team from the state of Michigan could beat the Texas 6A champ Allen HS.