Reasons You Expect Michigan to Win on Saturday
Question for the board: Why do you expect Michigan to beat the bucks again on Saturday? My thoughts:
1) Controlling the LOS on offense and running the ball consistently. Michigan only threw the ball 2(!) times in the second half last year and the O-Line is even more talented this year. Cue the "it was Knowles' first year" complaints from OSU fans.
2) Michigan has the #1 total defense in the country. That includes the #2 rushing defense. OSU ran for only 64 yards in The Game last year. Sure Stroud will get his here and there, but I foresee some short drives for OSU because they can't establish the run. Rinse and repeat of their defense being bullied & tired, especially in the second half.
3) JJ will outperform expectations, and he'll have the help of an expanded playbook. Last year, Michigan ran the statue of liberty play on the first drive to cap it off with a Henning touchdown. The Wolverines are sure to unleash some unique plays on Saturday. The overwhelming thought is that Michigan is one-dimensional and they will only run the ball, but I expect some clutch JJ passes of 15+ yards.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
I expect UM to win if Keagan, Morris, Schoonmaker, Corum, Edwards and Henning are healthy.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Because when Jake Moody reaches orgasm with his girlfriend(s) he chants: "The Iceman Cometh", which of course refers to his love of Eugene O'Neill plays.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
Genius post. Well played.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
An overall sense of karma. To return balance in the universe.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Username fits.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
because......
That's why.
42-27 Go Blue!
November 21st, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
Because they are the better team..
November 21st, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
Because good usually beats evil in the movies.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
Not according to Lord Helmet
November 21st, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
November 21st, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
Expect?
Not sure I "expect" a win but I do know that there are so many matchup variables that I don't know what to expect beyond: MI looking to run the ball through as many open gaps as our O line can create and Minter looking for the right coverage deployments to hold Stroud's receivers in check.
I expect it to be a great game between two unbeaten teams. I know I will be exhausted when the game ends. Hopefully with a huge grin on my face!
November 21st, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
I guess it is different strokes for different folks but if this year's game is anything like last year's game it will be emotionally tense the entire time but instead of being exhausted I'll have the energy of roughly 14 meth heads at peak high when it is done!
November 21st, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
I park .7 miles south of the stadium.
After I came to terms with not getting down to the field after The Game last year, I began running back to the car. Not sure why, but i just started to run. Dodging and high fiving others and screaming on the joyous way back to the car. I beat my tailgate friends to our spot by a solid 45 min. and not because they made it down onto the field either.
I'm not in the kind of shape to be running almost a mile in the cold, and without even stretching. I'm not in the kind of shape to be running period. So I'm out of breath, dripping sweat and snow that was melting mid air a foot from my furnace like head. Then I'm undressing, down to jeans and a long sleeved t-shirt, red faced and breathing heavy still. I drank a beer. Then another. Friends started showing up back at their cars. We hugged. We cried. We made travel plans.
I want to feel that same energy this year, but run around my own block. Screaming.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
Here's hoping that you scream so long and loud with joy that your neighbors finally confirm just how crazy a fan you are. Good luck to us!
November 21st, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^
If everyone is healthy (seems like a big if at this point), this UM team is built to handle the Buckeyes exactly the same way as last year's team did.
OSU looks improved on defense but I think they can be exposed. Michigan will still be able to win in the trenches and if they can consistently drive the ball on the ground it makes their chances of winning go up exponentially.
The passing game has gone from an underutilized afterthought to a major concern, though. OSUs defense isn't that solid in defending the pass but it doesn't look like we will be able to majorly exploit that.
Michigan will need to get Stroud uncomfortable in the pocket consistently. They've largely been able to do that against other QBs this year and will absolutely have to do that to OSU again. The entire defensive gameplan hinges on it.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Both of these teams are battered with injuries.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
Sure, but us losing Corum and Edwards is the equivalent of them losing Stroud.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
They were mostly running their 4th string RB Saturday.
Granted he is a 4 star and might be their best back moving forward.
Charbonnet would be looking pretty good right about now.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Michigan will need to get Stroud uncomfortable in the pocket consistently. They've largely been able to do that against other QBs this year and will absolutely have to do that to OSU again.
The Illinois game was very concerning in this regard. I don't remember anyone touching Devito most of the game. I know Morris was out, but if that's all we got or it's infinite time in the pocket....we're going to have a bad weekend
November 21st, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
I don't think it will be the Same kind of defense this game. There will be different looks and looks that they have not put out there. Also, missing a key guy on defense can make a huge difference especially the one as important as he is. If we didn't have Olu our OL will not look the same. At least that is what I am hoping.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Because Corum will be back.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
I hope username doesn’t fit.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
1) I believe Michigan is better in the trenches on both sides of the ball and will be able to dominate the LOS.
2) Osu back seven is still not great and LB's will still struggle to be in the right place
3) Michigan has been very disciplined all season as one of the least penalized teams in the country. They also rarely turn the ball over on offense - something OSU has relied on from other teams this year at times to win games.
4) Michigan secondary is faster and more athletic than years past and they rank 6th Nationally in pass defense.
5) OSU run game is bad and will get shut down, as stated by OP.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
I remember Bo saying that your #1 was his reason to predict a victory in 2006, and it was true. But that didn't end well for anyone, especially Bo. We made some bad gaffs in that game but still had a shot late. Unfortunately, Crable took that shot on Troy Smith out of bounds and cost us any chance. Team played its guts out though, under difficult circumstances. Crable (or maybe Burgess) also missed a 1:1 TFL on Chris Wells on a great defensive run blitz which would have ended an OSU drive, and instead Wells escaped and bolted 60 yards for a TD. That was our worst play of the game, IMO
November 21st, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
please stop saying 'we'. it's a bad look for a troll.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
The Henne overthrow of a wide open Manningham on a bomb bruised my dong as well. I just may turn off the game on JJ's first overthrow just to guard my soul.
November 21st, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
None of these are correct. We will win The Game because the officials will be totally biased in Michigan's favor, just as they always are in big games against OSU.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
I have my great Aunt Stella's lucky rabbit's foot which I think should come in handy. She actually got struck by lightning on a sunny, blue day and was carrying the good luck charm with her at the time. So... it's not really that lucky.
I guess I just have a regular-to-slightly unlucky rabbit's foot. That'll help the team.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Play as a focused and disciplined team. Execute. Score Touch downs. That's all Michigan needs to do to win in Columbassl
November 21st, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Go Blue. Beat tOSU!
November 21st, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
I believe that Ohio State is soft
I believe that Michigan is not soft
I think Michigan will pound the ball down Ohio States throat just like we have against every single defense we've faced this year.
I think we'll control time of possession and keep the nuts offense off the field.
You're going to see all kinds of counters off of plays we've run all year. It's going to be amazing.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
It's been a meme in the past, but I actually think Michigan is sitting on a lot of stuff. They've rolled out extremely vanilla gameplans in the back half of the season. Seems like Michigan has just been running their base stuff as much as they can and Harbaugh always has a few things cooked up for OSU. We'll surprise em with a few things this weekend
November 21st, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
OSU fans know their team is soft. They've complained about it themselves
November 21st, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Expect is way too strong of a word for me anyways. I'm "hopeful" we will win but if Corum is out or much less than 90% of himself things change in a hurry.
I'll get back to you on this one in about 72 hours once reports start trickling in on Corum, Edwards and all the rest of our wounded warriors. In the meantime I'm in wait & see mode.
Now if we can just get that rain on Saturday to stick around a few more hours in Columbus.......
November 21st, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Haha injury reports on our players this week. Harbaugh is going full Belichick with the injury status of his players.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
That's not what I mean. What I'm referring to are the unofficial "reports" that inevitably end up here via posters connected to the program or students who have the players in classes. Something will get posted here or tweeted elsewhere if Corum, Edwards or any of the other key players hurt are practicing, in a walking boot or cast or anything else regarding their probable status for the game Saturday.
Just watch - I'd bet anything on it.
EDIT - It just happened. https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/minor-injury-update
November 21st, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
MGrowOld, you have perfectly expressed my feelings about Saturday. I think OSU probably wins this game more than 50% of the time only because it's in Columbus. If we were at home, I'd put us as a slight favorite. I do think it will be an absolute dogfight either way.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Because for the past 365 days the players have been beating ohio every day in the weight room, in practice, and in their head. They now know it's do-able and the pressure is off in that regard. They know they are stronger, tougher, and are in the bucks heads. We shouldn't just win, we should bully them again.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
We win the game because the passing game clicks.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
I think this is a very similar matchup to last year with Michigan having a great rushing attack, mid to ok passing (please JJ and receivers, get it together), and surprising defense.
Ohio is all high octane flash but until just last game no real running game to speak of and the defense is better but still looks like the weak point (relatively).
Illinois showed Michigan's O Line can be moved and even though they were one sided, there was no Edwards who is Corum light but with A+ receiving skills. I think that this game won't be 42-27 but I think Michigan matches up ok depending on no busts in the secondary and Minter coming up with a good defense to keep their receivers in the parking lot.
tl;dr I think Michigan uses a near identical game plan as last year: pressure Stroud and keep OSU's receivers in the parking lot - make them earn their scores in the red zone, and play as clean as possible. God knows M won't get fair whistles.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Expect is a strong word.
If we win, it will be because our O-Line was dominant and our Defense played contain. I doubt we sack and pressure Stroud heavily because we haven't done that all year, but if we can collapse the pocket and keep contain, I think we can keep him off-schedule enough to limit their offensive output. Keep the WRs in front of you and make them work for points.
For the O-Line, we need to grind, convert third downs and score TDs. The #1 reason we won last year, in my opinion, was about how we stayed on the field thanks to Haskins. If you can put together 8-12 play drives, move the sticks, and pay it off at the end with points, you keep them off the field, eat clock, and wear their D down.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
Ohio State has a larger range of outcomes. They can be the most lethal team in college football when they're on, and they can get outplayed by Northwestern. Weather affects them more because it increases the variance of results from Ohio State's main offensive attack vector, which is using the superiority of their receiver talent to win one-on-one battles for big passing yards.
Michigan has a lower range of outcomes in all facets except pass defense, where they are susceptible to being absolutely shredded, but also capable of shutting down a team like Ohio State, because they have the athletes to be in range of passes but not the pass rushing to give those athletes any kind of break.
Both teams have injured guys who are certainly going to play for this no matter how hurt they are. Michigan's injuries are more severe: if Morris is not himself they don't have a replacement-level replacement for him, and if Corum isn't himself, well, that's the Heisman candidate. Henderson, Williams, and Smith-Njigba are game-breaking talents but Ohio State has RBs and WRs coming out of their ears.
I think Michigan can run on these guys, but OSU will bring blitzes and play more Cover 1 and Cover Zero than ever before, since Illinois just demonstrated that the Wolverine passing game isn't clicking well enough to pass their way out of there, or interested in doing so. Michigan will have to punish the Cov1 with McCarthy's running game and hopefully get some explosives out of that, like they did against PSU and only PSU. If Keegan's back I like their chances better of cracking a blitz and finding nobody left in the secondary.
So this game is going to come down to OSU's passing game vs connecting. Michigan's CBs have to play out of their minds. Minter's pressures have been less than mediocre these last few weeks but I think (hope) some of that is saving the nastier, faster-hitting Amoeba stuff for The Game. Michigan can't get away with an RPS tie on that side of the ball--the coaches need to pick up the players, since there's no way Upshaw or Harrell is getting near Stroud vs a pair of NFL-bound OTs. All the looping and late-coming LBs lately has only served to give the offense a few beats to get the ball out before there's any danger. The fact that the DEs are no threat nerfs Michigan's blitzes because opponents are able to save help blocking for stunts and blitzes, trusting an OT or even a TE alone is plenty to erase some of Michigan's edge rushers. Against a modern NFL passing offense that's courting disaster.
One thing going for us here is OSU doesn't like to use its RBs in protection. Day really wants them to be in the pass pattern, since they're great athletes and he doesn't want to give defenses the luxury of doubling Harrison Jr. et al. One reason Illinois was so effective at picking up pressures was Chase Brown was the best back we've faced at pass pro.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
If they play more aggressive defense, wouldn't they be susceptible to more screens like we saw on Saturday?
November 21st, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
My thoughts on Saturday,
1. Corum, and Morris need to be healthy. Edwards at 100% would be a massive help/bonus.
2. JJ needs to hit wide open recievers (duh) but a WR is gonna have to make a damn catch! at some point. That ball to Anthony was on the money and it was painful to see him miss that ball.
3. Dline is gonna need another great game. OSU has some huge weapon WR's and the best way to mitigate them is to pressure Stroud. Hope Minter calls a great game.
4. As you mention above, as we have most of the year, control the ball for most of the game which keeps Stround & company off the field and wear down the D.
5. LFG!
November 21st, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
Because this kind of sinister, abominable evil cannot endure forever
November 21st, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
There are 2 keys in my view....1) Pound the ground / control the clock, 2) Get in Stroud's face. Success in those 2 areas could yield a victory.
One thing I am concerned about though is the emergence of this new RB Hayden. For some reason, Williams and Henderson just seem like plodding RB's who we are capable to stop. Hayden seems a little more elusive which concerns me. Lets see...T-minus 5 days.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
I guess I just don’t understand this idea that all of a sudden Ohio State has this great running back who is a true freshman and had one good game against Maryland. I would love to see them rely on a true freshman running back to give them an “edge.” As we saw last year in the MSU game with JJ as a true freshman, these are high emotion environments and not for anyone who isn’t 100% ready or prepared for it. I only brought up JJ because it seemed like his fumble last year against MSU just seemed like he got lost in focus for that moment.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
I don't expect to win. You don't go into Columbus facing a playoff-level OSU team with one of the most talented rosters in the country and 'expect' to win. I wouldn't even 'expect' to win playing Penn State in Happy Valley.
I think Michigan has a chance, but it's going to be the toughest game of the year by far. Michigan usually faces an uphill struggle in Columbus, and of course after last year's game there's zero chance of OSU not being 100% keyed in on this game.
In order to have a chance Michigan will need to perfectly execute the game plan - no turnovers, no mistakes, no big plays given up on D, finish drives. This whole "FG from red zone visits" act isn't going to fly.