Realistic season outlook
2-1 on the season (an embarrassing effort yesterday and to be quite honest won a game we should have lost vs Army)
30/70 games.... can't call them 50/50 because when we play a near equal or better opponent we lose. (could very easily go 0-5 here)
Iowa, PSU, ND, MSU, OSU
60/40 games .... games we probably should win but never know
Maryland and Indiana
80/20 games ..... games we most certainly will win
Illinois and Rutgers
My guess is we end up 7-5 somehow but it is also very possible to end up with a sub .500 year. This season really has the feeling of the bad Hoke and RR teams. We aren't utilizing the talent on the roster. We don't develop talent.
I don't know how at this point in his tenure with the season going the way it is going he keeps a job. It seems as if this season he has lost complete control of the team. The tough defense we once had is now flat footed and getting dominated. The promised uptempo modern offense looks worse than ever. It really begs the question of if there is anyway that this coaching staff can right the ship for this year and beyond ... it seems highly unlikely.
I am thinking we will end up 7-5 with the usual waxing by OSU and a coaching search in the off season.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
Running table - <1%
10 wins - <5%
9 wins - <20%
8 wins ~50%
7 or less <20%
JMO
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
8 wins would be miraculous.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
This team will win 8 or more. People are overreacting. When we beat Iowa, some people will start to believe again.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
My challenge to that statement is what is there to believe in? Year after year we are mediocre with no realistic chance of beating OSU or making the playoffs. There is nothing to look forward to here.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
2016 and...really...2017 is calling
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
And by calling you mean getting your dick kicked in by OSU and losing a bowl game to an inferior opponent?
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
It is impossible to say that after yesterday man. The team that played yesterday isn’t beating Iowa. If there are not vast improvements made very quickly this could be a 6-6 football team.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
Eh, I disagree. The only teams that have the capability of blowing things wide open like that are PSU, ND, and OSU. We could play poorly and have a chance against every other team. Iowa and MSU have good defenses, but their offenses have almost no explosive playmakers. Think we beat them because it’s at home. And I think we beat the teams we are much better than. JH has beaten almost everyone he should have beaten. Just because we got pooped on yesterday doesn’t mean we are Going to lose every other game. This is probably going to be like 2017 IMO.
September 22nd, 2019 at 5:03 PM ^
Are you serious? Iowa produces multiple elite TE's every year it seems like, they have the only DE outside of OSU that looks super elite and Stanley has been there at QB for 10 years. I am most definitely worried about Iowa
September 22nd, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Did I say anywhere that they shouldn’t be taken seriously? They can absolutely beat us. But they also haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 2015. And I haven’t seen anything from them this season to make me think that we shouldn’t beat them at home. JMO
September 22nd, 2019 at 7:22 PM ^
You’re clearly just a terrible person for posting an opinion that regardless of the subpar performances so far, this team can actually still win a game this year. You should feel so ashamed
September 22nd, 2019 at 7:52 PM ^
Correct.
I took Jeff Sagrin's Week 4 Ratings (there are others but this one is the easiest to make game predictions) and ran the calculations on the rest of M's schedule. Here they are, Bold = win (a calculated spread of less than 1 = a loss):
Rutgers, M is favored by 30.8
Iowa, M is favored by 0.84
@ Illinois, M is favored by 13.5
@ PSU, PSU is favored by 13.95
ND, ND is favored by 4.5
@ Maryland, Maryland is favored by 5.16
MSU, MSU is favored by 0.34
@ IU, M is favored by 6.51
osu, osu is favored by 17.47
Things change weekly with Sagain and all the ranking systems but as of right now, M will lose 6 more games and finish the 2019 season 5-7. I think that is clearly the floor and I did my own thing with a spread of < 1.00. Those would probably be considered toss - up so, let's give us a "chance" for M to win those two (MSU and Iowa) and go 7-5. I also happen to think that is probably a realistic record. People thinking we are going to win 8 or more games are waaaaaay off blowing rainbows out their asses
While it's true that fancy stats like this are so objective that they defy the "shit happens," and "you will win/lose a game on a refs call," and "randomness" laws.
Read it and weep.
September 22nd, 2019 at 8:28 PM ^
14-1 !
and i'm dead fucking serious.
let's goooooooooooo!
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^
6-6 or 7-5 is my guess. Several high profile players transfer and Harbaugh resigns. Harbaugh is a turnaround guy - not a program builder.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
I will give you he did sort of turn it around the first few years and now we are in a nose dive.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
Snowflakes threads are still pinned...
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
And predictions have been posted in no less than 6 other threads.
September 22nd, 2019 at 8:09 PM ^
So, one more isn't going to kill you.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
PSU, ND, OSU will all be routs. Can’t see us scoring over 10 points vs MSU so we’ll probably lose that one. Iowa is 50/50 and the rest I could easily see us slipping up at least once. I’ll go 6 or 7 wins.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
6 and 7 is really just unacceptable at this point. I would see your 6 or 7 and raise you to firing and the mass chaos of a coaching search.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
Will lose to PSU, ND, OSU and Molester State. 2 more WTF losses for a 5-7 finish.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
5-7 really feels like the end of a coaching staff... very similar to the way RR and Hoke went down the tubes.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
No, RR went from 3 wins to 5 wins to 7 wins to fired. Hoke started out with 11 wins and in year four he had 7.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
Can't dispute that statement. FACTS.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
In year four, Hoke had 5 wins. 7 wins was the year before.
September 22nd, 2019 at 6:34 PM ^
His teams could at least compete with OSU, at least twice that I recall.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
No, we were 5-7 in Year 4 of Hoke. That was his last year. We lost to Maryland and Rutgers, and got stomped by Minnesota in Concussiongate.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
They put Harbaugh on meds after 2016 and he went from JMFH to Jim Harbaugh.
The passion is gone, team has followed.
After an 8-4 season, JH will not be fired, but instead will “resign”.
Hopefully we can pull off a Bob Stoops type hire, or fire the $ cannon at a Lincoln Riley.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:57 PM ^
Definitely looks medicated. There is no passion. Just doing pressers saying we got outplayed and outcoached. Teams follow their leaders. Playing like they have no heart.
September 22nd, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^
Why would Riley ever drop down to a program like Michigan? He has it made at Oklahoma.
September 22nd, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^
He had a reality check on life priorities after the premature birth of his baby.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Eh. I'm feeling pretty apathetic about M football. It doesn't look good right now, certainly. Going to work out then shoot some pool.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^
Go drink some Michelob Ultra with Dick Jones after your workout.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
You're right, OP, the first three iterations of this thread weren't executed well enough.
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
I don’t think what you put up is “realistic.” It’s a state of recency bias after 3 horrible games. You have to ask yourself: did UM play horrible the past 3 games or is this just how good we are? The answer should be much closer to the former than the latter. We obviously are still much more talented than what we’ve put out. Therefore, it is fair to assumed there will be some improvement from the last three games over the course of the season. How much? I don’t know, but some for sure.
Rutgers: 95%. Iowa: 65%. Illinois: 90%. Penn State: 40%. Notre Dame: 40%. Maryland: 65%. MSU: 60%. Indiana: 85%. OSU: 35%
If you think this is optimistic, take a look at how much even these projections have changed from the start of the season, where we were favorites to win EVERY game. These are realistic projections IMO, because they don’t overreact to 3 games, and they still take into account that we’re overrated.
Upon calculation, this gives us slightly over 1% chance to win out, which seems accurate. 8-4 is my guess using these projections. We’ll win one that we aren’t supposed to win (ND, PSU, OSU) and we’ll lose one that we’re supposed to win (MSU, Maryland, Iowa)
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
Keep in mind the spread reflects the amount of action that a school like Michigan generates. I think after 3 games where we look undisciplined, uninspired, and ineffective we are starting to be a team that is just that, not good. I do see your optimism though. I hope u r right.
September 22nd, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
We're gonna win one that we aren't supposed to win? Doubtful. When do we ever do that?
September 22nd, 2019 at 5:34 PM ^
Lol when has Michigan ever won a game we weren’t supposed to win? Do you remember the last time that happened?
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
does this change if next week Wisconson beats down NW by 40?
I think we played bad but I really think Wisc can beat OSU with what they have shown in 3 games. and camp randle is a hard place to play.
People bring up 2016 PSU and although I don't agree in the comparison they came into our house and we led 35-0 only allowing a TD in garbage time with 2 minutes left . before they were competitive and eventually won their final 7 games vs Wisc/OSU/MSU.
Next week will be a good guide to what the rest of the season looks like. Come out beat Rutgers by 50 and maybe there is still hope and @Wisc was a fluke like Clemson losing by 30 to Lousiville in the year they Made their first playoffs
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
I hear you but the measuring stick should be how we play against good teams rather than lesser opponents.
September 22nd, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Wisconsin plays msu and osu, i hope they beat them both
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
6 - 6 is my guess at this point. Not being sarcastic.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
I believe that the response of the next week will determine a lot about the rest of the season. If we play poorly against Rutgers and play up to their level, we could easily have a 5-7 season. Indiana always gives us fits and I'm counting PSU, ND, MSU, OSU could all easily be losses. Also, Maryland is an iffy game as well. If we struggle against Rutgers, we know how the rest of the season is going to go...
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
Hard to tell. We may be down to starting a third string QB and third string RB for the foreseeable future. LT is a complete mess as Runyan is about 70% and Hayes is a next year guy. Our WRs clearly do not fit the Gattis system. Need to play the frosh slot bugs and see if that works - Collins and Black just are not fitting the scheme and getting enough targets. This could really unravel with more injuries.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Good coaches scheme and coach to their talent.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
6-6 if McCaffrey cannot start in the next two games.
8-4 if he can start after Rutgers
September 22nd, 2019 at 11:11 PM ^
Your certainty that McCaffrey is two games better than Patterson is pretty ridiculous. Even in his small sample size, McCaffrey has looked arguably worse than Patterson. He's thrown like 3 near interception in his last 9 passes.
Especially if you're implying that without McCaffrey, we'd lose to Rutgers, I don't know what to say to you.
Also the fact that Patterson hasn't cost us a win in his time here at Michigan makes the fact that you think he'll cost them Rutgers, or just two other games, pretty ridiculous.
I bet you thought O'Korn would win a few extra games for us if he took over for Speight too.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
I don't think there's going to be an easy game the rest of the way. I think next week against Rutgers will be close.
This team lacks an identity. Last year's team had an identity. Then they get blown out by Ohio State, lose a relatively meaningless bowl game, and Harbaugh hires Josh Gattis, which is looking like one of the 5 worst hires in program history.
I think the players want to play like they did last year. The offense wasn't bad last year. They averaged 36.8 points per game in the regular season.
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
Good lord people. Stop it
September 22nd, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Well it does look like it may be setting the table for Revenge Tour 2!
How else could they get some of their draft eligible players to come back?