Reading the Tea Leaves: Running Back Situation
Bored at work - slow day on the board.
Anyway, figured this was worth discussing:
- Word is that Thomas Rawls is not exactly eligible to play this fall - YET. He has been taking a summer class (just one I believe) at Michigan that he has to pass in order to be eligible for this fall. Logic would state that it should be pretty easy to pass the class, and if he can't pass one class over the summer - how would he be able to take a 12-hour course load in the fall / winter at Michigan? I am not concerned, but it is something worth mentioning.
- Assuming Rawls is eligible, look for it to be a battle with Stephen Hopkins to be the primary tailback. Nothing really of substance to add here - just what people are saying. The Rawls hype train continues to churn down the tracks.
- There should be a position for "Third Down RB" this fall, most likely to be filled by Vincent Smith or Justice Hayes. Hayes has generated a lot of good buzz from the people watching, even if he could potentially use a redshirt year to increase his muscle mass. He'd have to be really impressive, IMO, because Vincent Smith is made for this role in our new offense. If V. Smith cannot get a strangehold on this role, I wouldn't be surprised if he transferred at some point.
- I wouldn't count out Fitz, Shaw, or Cox, either. Fitz is the most complete back - could handle the entire load himself if he magically became injury-proof. Word is Shaw has put in the work this offseason, unlike prior seasons. But his injury has put him behind others at the moment - and it remains to be seen if he's more 1st/2nd down back or a 3rd down back (the term "tweener" comes to mind here - and that's never a good thing). Cox needs to learn a playbook before he will see the field. Once practice starts, if he's learned the playbook - he could be a frontrunner.
Shaw secretly was more highly rated than Mcguffie. People just got excited about Mcguffie because:
A. SUPER FAST WHITE DUDE
B. Hurdling
If people weren't impressed with Shaw last year they weren't paying attention.It was easy to miss him; he only carried the ball 31 times combined in the last nine games of the season.
a couple days ago, but I'm hopeful for Shaw to stay healthy. It's his senior year, and I'd love to see him in there breaking the big runs he's capable of.
As an added bonus, I have a #20 jersey from the Hart era that would seem more current if Shaw gets PT.
Also, Shaw was a national champion sprinter. That's kind of neat.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^
But I have to say, I really doubt Rawls will get much playing time this year. Why? Because we've got a lot of backs with experience ahead of him and the coaching staff will likely want him to put some more muscle on and learn the schemes.
I fully expect Hopkins to be our "every-down back," Smith a mostly pass-catching and draw back. Someone mentioned Brian Westbrook--that would be awesome, but a more realistic example from the NFL is Kevin Faulk. Not as dynamic or exciting, but still very effective over the years for the Patriots.
I'd love to see more Fitz and Shaw, but they always seem injured, so we'll see. If healthy, though, they could both be really exciting players.
Cox could see the field too.
I'm sure Rawls is a good back, but to expect him to come right in and get a lot of carries as a true freshman is not realistic. We have a lot of backs with experience who are more likely to get the carries this year. Based on experience, you'd think Shaw, Cox, or Vincent Smith would be the most likely ball carriers. But, Hopkins is more the kind of back Hoke and Borges probably like. Fitz is an unknown because he's been injured so much. Hopefully, the fall practices will sort things out and a couple guys will emerge as the workhorse backs.
RB is by far the easiest position in Football to come in and contribute. I have no idea of the talent of Rawls, because I have never seen him play. But I know who our current crop of RBs remind me of; David Underwood. Every year we heard how Underwood was getting better and could be the man this year. And every year he was just meh. Thank god Mike Hart showed up his Senior year or we would have been in big trouble. The early games that year before Hart started getting carries were just painful to watch.
Aug
Good thing you sign your posts at the end. Otherwise we might be misled by your screen name as to who actually wrote your post.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
So basically what you're saying is... they are all awesome. Fred Jackson, is that you?
I mentioned everyone because I wanted to be fair. Since fall camp hasn't even started yet, no one has ruled themselves out. But I would be surprised if the "guy" wasn't Hopkins or Rawls. I'd give Shaw an outside shot because his running style reminds me of the SDSU RB's running style last year. Unfortunate that Shaw never treated college football as a year-round sport.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^
August 5th, 2011 at 12:43 PM ^
Yeah he would, if Odoms was actually a RB
It's only a label. Just because he lines up outside the tackle box doesn't mean he couldn't do it.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^
We have a logjam at RB because nobody is great.
Which is all the reason we need a 5-star RB in this next recruiting class.
In the meantime, I'm putting my money on Rawles or Hopkins being worked in as Hoke's desired feature back. Vincent will get his carries one way or another, with Shaw possibly being the odd-man out if he can't overcome Rawles or Hopkins.
I like what I've seen from Fitz, but what he hasn't shown is any consistency.
IMO.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:51 PM ^
The continued recruiting of CBs (Reeves, Wright, etc.) despite the staff previously indicating we were filled up in the secondary makes one wonder about T-Rich.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
Tom has repeatedly said that our pursuit of these guys has nothing whatsoever to do with T-Rich. If he believes that, well I sure as hell know I do, because he's probably the most trustworthy person on the board.
August 5th, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^
Full Back: Stephen Hopkins
Tail Back: Michael Shaw
It was actually by Chris Balas, but who cares. Beavis should start calling these threads "Reading the Rivals Premium Board"
Not sure who the lead back will be. I dont have any words on the street going
But, if MICH gets Vinnie Smith 10-15 touches a game, good things will happen
If by good things you mean getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage, going down after first tackle and going down with the weakest of arm tackles, then yes good things will happen.
I don't think that Smith was fully recovered from his injury last year when he would be stuffed by those tackles. From what limited things I saw in the spring game, he seemed to have that extra wiggle back from freshmen year which will make him perfect for limited carrires and being the 3rd down back(behind Shaw who I think will be the starter).
I think you should probably go back and review Smith's season carry by carry and touch by touch before commenting. He was pretty effective in a lot of situations
Is this because its the 4th quarter and we have a comfortable lead and thus are playing our second and third string backs? If so, then I agree. Otherwise, I think we are in big trouble if Smith is getting those touches in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd quarters.
Edit: Unless he is the 3rd down guy as folks elaborated above, then you are perhaps right (and based on the number of touches you cited, that's perhaps what you meant).
You should probably review Smith's season carry by carry and touch by touch. He was pretty effecitve in a lot of situations throughout the game. I stand by my comment. 10-15 touches and good things will happen. I mean, good things have already happened for the team when he gets touches like that.
"I mean, good things have already happened for the team when he gets touches like that."
Yeah, after some thought I realized there was more implied in your statement than I initially inferred. Smith would be a good situational back, as your 10-15 carries indicates.
lol, not sure if I was implying or infering, I always get those two mixed up.
But, yeah, he had a good season. If other backs had performed accordingly, we'd be calling Smith underrated. But, since he was the only one who lived up to any billing--and he was overused at times, and Rodrigo I think just forgot about the other backs or something--we're pissed at his production
But, I have done the touch by touch breakdown. I think most people would be surprised by how effective he was, especially on first downs and the number of touches that moved the chains or kept the O on schedule. Not to mention, my favorite stats of how often he scores on a per touch basis and how he rarely has negative plays. But, we just want to cry that he got stoned on a few third and 1s, which, while valid, barely paints the full story on his season.
I will put those together for a diary. If I can ever break out of this lazy mood towards blogging I've been in recent months. So, no promises, lol
Sounds like an interesting read. I think you are right that our perception of Smith is colored by his overuse and misuse, which was the fault of coaching, as well as injuries. I wish there was some way to capture the effectiveness of the O-line in relation to Smith's touches. That would be an interesting analysis, would capture more of the story, and would perhaps shift some of the blame. Such as, what happened on those plays in which Smith seemed to go down at first touch of a defender? Was it overuse? Or bad O-line play? (letting a defender get a b-line on Smith) As always, I am eager for the broader picture, but the broader picture is always tougher to paint.
More of one of the most mind-numbing manias here at Mgoblog - speculation that a true-freshman is going to beat out everyone else, some with 2 and 3 years of experience, and be THE badass back. Why prognosticate that the most surprising outcome will be the one to actually happen? By definitoin, its a dumb move. You transpose your hope for a good story with what is the likely story.
and I tend to agree with you that mgobloggers are always overhyping frosh (read morris), howeva, RB is a position where a freshman does have a somewhat decent chance at making waves. And its not like we have a stable of upperclass backs who have proven themselves.
My thought exactly. Until we see what Hayes or Rawls can actually do on the field, they're just numbers on the roster. From what I saw in past years, Shaw is a very talented back. And if he stays healthy, he will be as good as anyone in the conference. Hopkins is the guy I'm looking at to have a breakout season. He got a few carries last year and I see a lot of potential. As for Smith, I love the gutsy little guy but I'm just not sure he fits into a pro-style West coast offense like Hoke plans to run. The unknown is Toussaint. He could be another breakout player or a waste of a scholarship. Of course I'm hoping for the former.
I think it's a little harsh to call a guy a "waste of a scholarship". I mean we haven't really heard anything negative about his work ethic(feel free to correct me if I've forgotten something) and he's stayed eligible and out of trouble. He has just had really poor luck with injuries. Sometimes stuff happens.
And realistically, on a team with 85 scholarship players and only 24 starting positions (including kicker and punter), you're going to have quite a few guys who don't see much playing time. That doesn't mean that they aren't valued members of the team.
I'm still thinking that Mike Cox will be the starter. He's one of the older students and is a bruiser with good speed. Sounds like prototype Michigan ball carrier to me. I guess we'll have to see what happens. Should be fun to watch, though.
What makes everyone think that a big back will be the #1 back when SDSU's starter last year was 5'10" 175 lbs? Have the coaches said they want the starter to be 220+ lbs or is this just MAN BALL speculation?
Well they're not offering the smaller backs, and the ones that they are known to be recruiting are the big Wyatt Shallmans (6'1 230+) type of running backs.
We'll only see him if all the backs in front of him have failed. It would be like the emergence of Mike Hart.
Also, if he had academic problems in HS, it would be nice to let him have a year to adjust to UM.
Shaw is injured again? Is this new, or was this the same mysterious injury that had him "day to day" for half of last season?
Shaw was was wearing a club on his wrist during the SG, so he got limited carries. I believe he sprained his wrist or something minor like that.
Just looking at highlight tapes, Fitzgerald Toussaint is the second coming of Barry Sanders. I'll hold off on Rawls until he actually gets to college.
Does that make Barry Sanders, Jr. the third-coming of Barry Sanders?
...Yes... Yes it does.