Projecting Our Chances of Making the NIT

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

An NCAA berth is a pipe dream, and if Beilein can pull this off, it'll be a better coaching job than making the final in 2013. So let's get real and look at our chances of making the NIT.

Last year, the worst records in the NIT field belonged to Georgetown (17-14) and West Virginia (17-15). So, for the sake of argument, let's say we need to get to 17 wins to even have a shot.

We're 12-7 right now with at least 12 games remaining (11 regular-season and at least one in in the B1G tourney). So we need at least five more wins.

I only see three likely wins: home against Nebraska and Rutgers, and at Northwestern.

There are four more possible wins: home against Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa, and the Big Ten tourney opener.

There are five that are extremely unlikely: home against Wiscy, on the road against MSU, Indiana, Illinois and Maryland.

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ak47

January 21st, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^

The talent still has to be there.  He didn't teach athletecism to robinson, Stauskas was one of the best shooters in the country before he ever stepped on a college court, burke was already one of the hardest working players (his videos of working out in high school before getting to Michiganw was crazy), etc.  Obviously he did a great job, though I wish he would have suspended his two foul rule in the championship game and used Burke to stop the late second half run but whatever. This team doesn't have the same elite level of talent to be coached up so it will significantly more tactical prowess and actual coaching to get them wins.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

ckersh74

January 20th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^

Gotta have four, minimum. That would leave us at 16-15, assuming we're one-and-done in the B1G tournament. Adjust accordingly from there for conference tournament success. 

We've got an awful lot of hay to put in the barn yet. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 41763

Gobgoblue

January 20th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^

I think this team still has the ability to pull of a couple "quality" wins.  If we get a bit lucky in the BTT and win a game or two, we are in business.  

The NIT would be nice for the team-- extra practice/experience and such.  

Joined: 07/07/2012

MGoPoints: 21206

rob f

January 20th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^

even though we're 5-2 in the B1G right now, a .500 conference record will be a decent accomplishment and should be enough to easily get in the NIT.

But what if we finish above .500 in the B1G and then win our conference  tournament opener?  I'm still not completely giving up on the NCAA Tourney, with Coach Beilein and his staff, it's far from impossible.  Improbable, maybe, but NOT impossible.

Joined: 11/11/2010

MGoPoints: 195676

The Denarding

January 20th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^

We need one of three things to happen to get into the NIT:

 

1)  Derrick Walton to make a miraculous recovery and be able to hit two point baskets while absorbing contact 

2)   Zak Irvin to be able to hit jumpers off of curls or even an open corner three

3)  One of the bigs (either Donnal or Beilfeldt) can hit threes at a meaningful rate (around 40%)

 

If two of those things happen - we can pull off a few upsets and actually make the tournament.....especially if the zone continues to be effective...

Joined: 11/29/2010

MGoPoints: 1679

BursleyHall82

January 20th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^

But an NIT run every so often during a down year can be fun. As long as we make the NCAAs nine our of every 10 years, one of those injury-ridden NIT years can be fun.

You get those wacky games on Monday and Wednesday nights where you get ESPN all to yourself, you get an occasional home game that you weren't expecting, and you get that trip to Madison Square Garden at the end. Tim Hardaway Jr. will show up for  pep talk.

Back in the day, the NIT used to do wacky shit just for the case of doing wacky shit. During one of Tim McCormick's years, they made the guys use one of those red-white-and-blue ABA balls - just to be different.

So yes, I wanna be in the NCAA. But I've got big love for the NIT, too. It's one of those parties that you aren't bragging about having been there, but damn, you sure had a blast.

Joined: 07/14/2013

MGoPoints: 27280

Team 101

January 20th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^

I was thinking about this earlier this evening and thought we needed at least 4 wins to gain a NIT berth so we are above .500.  I thought Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern and Illinois were the four most likely wins.  You usually win games you think you won't and lose games you think you'll win.  A lot of will depend on whether Beilein finds a line-up that plays well together. He tried a lot tonight.  We got a victory but I don't know whether he found an answer.  If we could sweep State I don't care about the rest.

Joined: 04/15/2013

MGoPoints: 38608

LSAClassOf2000

January 21st, 2015 at 6:44 AM ^

On the few sites that I know that even predict the NIT bracket, you will definitely find Michigan in that discussion depending on the model used. I believe DRatings, for example, had Michigan as a 5-seed in their NIT prediction, although that data does not include games played in the last two days or so, which for us means our data does not include Rutgers. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130793