Predicting the West
The B1G West appears to be a free-for-all this year, with 6 teams at 1-1 and only
Wisconsin at 0-2. Below, I have listed all the teams (alphabetically), along with their B1G results to date, as well as their crossover schedule. Who do you think will ultimately prevail, and why?
TEAM RESULTS X-over Schedule
Illinois (L) @ Ind., (W) Wisc. (L) @Ind., MSU, @Mich.
Iowa (W) @ Rut., (L) Mich. (W) @Rut, (L) Mich., @OSU
Minnesota (W) @MSU, (L) Purdue (W) @MSU, PSU, Rut.
Nebraska (L) NW, (W) Ind. (W) Ind., @Rut., @Mich.
Northwestern (W) Neb., (L) @PSU (L) @PSU, @Md., OSU
Purdue (L) PSU, (W) @Minn. (L) PSU, @Md., @Ind.
Wisconsin (L) @OSU, (L) Ill. (L) @OSU, @MSU, Md.
I'm going out on a limb and picking Purdue. Tight loss to PSU. Throttled Minnesota on the road. Reasonable crossover schedule remaining. Lost a heartbreaker on the road to a pretty good Syracuse team. But, it's wide open. Who do you like, and why?
October 5th, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
If you're on your phone, rotate to landscape for best view.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Rotating my phone makes the West look less like trash? I mean, the fine people at Tim Apple are magicians, I'm just not sure if they're THAT magical.
October 5th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Please note a couple of errors in my post:
Illinois' win over Wiscy was not at home, it was in Madison, and, more importantly,
Minnesota plays PSU in Happy Valley, not at home.
Thanks to several posters for these corrections.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:15 AM ^
I like Illinois and Purdue but think both only win 1 of their 3 crossovers.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Preseason I had PU bc of O'Connell and their x-over schedule. Now that they gave up the PSU game and MD looks better than MSU, that pick is shakier. But I'm sticking with it. I think IL may well be the toughest team on that side. They may be ranked when we see them in Nov. EDIT: 6-3 with 3 teams (IL, PU, MN?) seems about right. Tie breakers decide.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:21 AM ^
Feels like a three-loss B10 schedule team, whoever that might be. I'm inclined to pick Brett B and the Mighty Illini. Seems like he's got things pointed in the right direction there, and they don't have any more tough crossovers than anyone else. Purdue seems too flaky to go the distance. Perhaps Minny if last week was a true outlier.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^
Id laugh if Nebraska won it. But I think it will be Minnesota
October 5th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
smitty, Herbstreit predicted Nebraska prior to the start of the season. Do great minds think alike?
October 6th, 2022 at 8:28 AM ^
Nebraska is not impossible. They're tied for the division lead with a new coach and momentum after a win. Stranger things have happened.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Not sure Purdue beats the Gophers if Ibrahim wasn't out. If he stays healthy, I think MN takes the west.
If not, watch out for the Fighting Berts out of Champaign
October 5th, 2022 at 8:29 AM ^
If the Gophers get Ibrahim back I like them to win the west they have Penn State and Rutgers @Home. They'll be at least 2-1 vs the B1G East. they should be able to handle the rest of their west division foes.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
I'd pick Minnesota if Ibrahim doesn't miss any more time. Their crossover has 2 winnable home games, which would make them 3-0. Everyone else should have at least one loss. Then they have to just take care of business in their division.
October 5th, 2022 at 8:41 AM ^
Illinois is the best team. Minnesota has the best chance. Purdue is dangerous. Crossover doesn't mean loss. Some upsets are due. The West is weaker but not by as much as people think on any given Saturday.
This week will say a lot. I'm not sure what.
I need to understand the tie breaks...it is going to be crazy.
B1G needs ranked based championship or power based scheduling. The current system does not reward good teams.
Just win...Go Blue!
October 5th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
I think you get college credit for understanding the tiebreaker - link
October 5th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
Bullseye. Thanks much.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
The two big games between West Division foes last weekend were Purdue over Minnesota, and Illinois over Wisconsin. In both games, turnovers by the losing team made a difference - and, perhaps not coincidentally - both home teams lost.
So, who is "out" - that seems pretty easy. Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Iowa's lack of offense will prevent them from winning divisional games on the road - or - in Columbus.
That leaves three - Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois (in reverse alphabetical order). It's going to come down to the last weekend of conference play - and, as noted, might require the tiebreak criteria to determine.
Which means - a three way race with the Illini, Gophers, and Boilermakers (again, in reverse alphabetical order).
I like Illinois. Their win in Madison was very good, they seem to be the most balanced, and they have both Purdue and Minnesota at "home" in Champaign.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
I think this is the most likely outcome. If Illinois had closed out that Indiana game they may have won it outright.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
I agree on Illinois. They seem to be pretty balanced on both sides, and I just don't trust Minnesota or Purdue to be consistent enough to win it unless everyone just ends up at 5-4 and one wins on a tie-breaker.
I could see Iowa winning it honestly. The offenses in the west are meh enough that I could see Iowa choking all of them out and winning a bunch of 17-10 type games. They'll lose to OSU, but I could see them going 6-0/5-1 against the rest and stumbling into Indy at 7-2/6-3 in the west which probably wins it this year
October 5th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
The funny thing about this post -- I also tend to think Wisconsin is "out" but, looking at their schedule, I don't see any games where they would be clear underdogs. Maybe Minnesota -- SP+ puts it at Minnesota minus-4 right now -- but they get them in Camp Randall at the end of the year, when things could look very different depending on how Leonhard does.
The only one who is definitely definitely out to me is Northwestern, who will be large dogs in all their remaining games. (I say this in part to tempt fate, as a 5-4 in the Big 10, 5-7 overall Northwestern winning the west would be completely hilarious.)
October 5th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
It's going to be difficult for Northwestern to win a single game. Their crossovers are PSU, MD and OSU. Gulp. It'd be a miracle (or in the Big Tent West, normal?) for them to get to 5 wins.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Based on my calculations the winner of the East has a 99.8% chance of winning the BIG. I'm hoping it's M. At the moment, not sure how our LBs and DBs are going to hang with OSU's passing attack unless there's some dramatic improvement but... any given Saturday...
October 5th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
A 7 way tie in the west at the end of the regular season and they have to go to the "unwritten rules" final tie-breaker...a rock-paper-scissors showdown.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:41 AM ^
Is there a 7-item version of that? We would have to have at least one instance where they all pick differently.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Two approaches:
1. Everybody throws; if all 3 are present, then rethrow until only 2 are thrown, and remove losers. This might get stuck for a while for large groups.
2. Everybody throws; select the largest 2 groups and remove the losers. If there's no clear "largest 2 groups" (like if it goes 3 rock, 2 scissors, 2 paper), then rethrow. Still a chance to get stuck but easier to get out of stalemate than approach #1.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
My ACC Coastal dream for years was all finish 4-4. I think one year it was in play going into Thanksgiving weekend, but never happened.
New dream: all Big 10 West teams finish 4-5, with 4-8 overall Northwestern somehow winning the tiebreaker
October 5th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Based on crossovers, I'd say Minnesota has the advantage right now, but their margin for error is slim.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Too early, but the home games for Illinois (Purdue, Minn., Iowa) could be the deciding factor as well. I'm with you on advantage Gophers.
Michigan will be challenged not to look past Illinois as that may be a make or break game for them. Bielema will have all his Wisconsin fans rooting him on at this point. He basically fired Chryst out of sympathy.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
With all of the financial resources the B1G has, it's crazy this division continues to be complete garbage. Are any of these teams even decent? Calling them mediocre is being generous. The East has 3, possibly even 4 (Maryland) teams that will be ranked when the first playoff rankings are revealed. The West likely won't have 1 even close.
As for who wins the division, it's such a toss up. Minnesota might have the best path. They get PSU and Rutgers at home and they've already beaten MSU. If Ibrahim gets healthy, they'll win 2 of their crossover games and an outside chance of upsetting PSU in Minneapolis.
October 5th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
jwk - would you prefer the B1G return to the days of "Leaders and Legends"?
October 5th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
I prefer "Leaders and the Best" along with the alternate "Champions of the West".
If the SC UCLA thing happens - give me a power ranking based schedule with the final 3 games played in playoff fashion. But we will eat what we are served.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
Possibly something similar, or go to no divisions. It'll be interesting to see what they decide to do once UCLA and USC join.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Minnesota is @ PSU. B1G East teams host 2 of 3 crossover games this year/B1G West travel 2 of 3. That game is at Sad Valley the week after our matchup.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Ah, OK - thanks for clarifying. The Ops post makes it look like that's a home game for Minny. Unlikely they'll pull the upset in Happy Valley.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
jwk - I think the Minny at PSU game is the White Out that PSU has scheduled for this season - and, it will be a night game. Though I like Minny - not sure how well they handle that environment. It's by far the rowdiest Penn State gets.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
Was going to comment that Minnesota has PSU at home, but that's actually a mistake on OPs part.
October 5th, 2022 at 11:28 AM ^
Oops. My bad. I also had Illinois's win over Wiscy as a home game, but that game was in Madison.
October 5th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
I did not realize it was Night White, hmm...but I don't think it matters. PSU is over-rated and Minn. is under. Minnesota has already lost where they should have won. They are going to understand the need to execute.
One of the crossovers is going to go West's way. Hoping it isn't against Michigan.
October 6th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
Why wouldn't psu schedule osu as the white out? Because they're a bunch of pussies?
October 5th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
With all of the financial resources the B1G has, it's crazy this division continues to be complete garbage.
Well, that's because financial resources don't directly correlate to being able to recruit well unless we think TV contracts go right to some players NIL. The teams in the west exist in a fairly sparse recruiting area and none are really blue bloods except sort of Nebraska
October 5th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Ascending - thanks for posting this. It made me think - what are the most interesting crossover games based on current records. Here's my list.
Illinois at Michigan
Minnesota at Penn State
Purdue at Maryland
October 5th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Minnesota over PSU. Michigan over all others. Purdue could beat Maryland, but I don't think so.
October 5th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Purdue is too sporadic for me to go with them. If they’re not killing themselves with penalties (like in the Syracuse game) their lack of running game is going to keep them struggling
It will probably be like last year. We won’t know until thanksgiving weekend who wins the division.
October 5th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
I agree. Purdue is a great spoiler, but too inconsistent to win a division (sans a total chaos/tiebreakers situation, which I guess I can't rule out)
October 5th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
I think people are too quick to write off Iowa. Their offense is junk but their defense is more than good enough to throttle every offense in the west. I could see Iowa winning most of their games and Minnesota, Purdue, and Illinois being just inconsistent enough for Iowa to win it
October 5th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
Iowa's remaining schedule is:
At Illinois - October 8th. I'll pick Illinois
At OSU - October 22nd. I'll pick the Bucks
Host Northwestern - October 29th. I'll pick the Hawkeyes to win at home.
At Purdue - November 5th. This is a key game - probably a toss up.
Host Wisconsin - November 12th. I'll pick Iowa.
At Minnesota - November 19th. Again, a key game and toss up.
Host Nebraska - November 26th. I'll pick Iowa in their regular season finale.
So - looking at the schedule, Iowa plays the three "consensus" contenders - Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota - on the road. I know that defense travels - but, Iowa will have to score to win any of those games.
October 5th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Something would have to develop or change for Iowa.
They are too Petrified at the moment. They need a new Brian to figure things out.
Lachey and KA Johnson will have to carry the load. I don't know... maybe?
October 5th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Illinois is certainly playing like a team that can win it, but Minnesota seems to have the clearest path.