Please post Rose Bowl factoids/stats
I need to keep feeding this high and can't wait for MGoContent. Just saw this one on Facebook. Recall the match up between Bama's top WR and Will Johnson was supposed to be the key matchup:
Will Johnson:
-Played 33 pass snaps
-was only targeted twice
-gave up zero completions.
Complete lock down, should improve his draft stock.
What other great stats have you seen from the game?
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:55 PM ^
MICHIGAN 27 ALABAMA 20
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:01 PM ^
End of line.
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:57 PM ^
This probably isn't what you're looking for, but number of my family members who got engaged during the first half: 1.
That is a personal family record, actually, for Rose Bowl proposals. Best wishes to Leah and David!
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:57 PM ^
The whole "Bama is 66-0 when leading 7-0 in the first quarter" was pretty shocking.
Correction: 66-1
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:03 PM ^
And apparently not accurate. The statistic was for the last seven years. But Clemson Boards said: "WRONG!!! Bama led Clemson by a score of 7-0 on 1/9/17 and even led by 14-0 five minutes into the 2nd before our comeback." https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/thread/rece-davis-just-said-according-to-their-crack-team-of-statisticians,-this-2322060
January 2nd, 2024 at 11:35 PM ^
Rece should have said last 6.98 years
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:04 PM ^
Number of Michigan bowl games I've attended: 1
Number of bowl wins Michigan has with me attending: 1
Please help me get to Houston!
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
Same!!!
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:17 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh has exactly the same amount of wins over Nick Saban as Kirby Smart.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:19 PM ^
Hall of fame coach Nick Saban doesnt know how to coach the center /QB exchange.
GO BLUE
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:30 PM ^
What has not been mentioned enough is that Michigan’s defensive line had a lot to do with those bad snaps. The Alabama center was understandably terrified of what was about to happen.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:33 PM ^
Well he was shaky already this season in prior games so...you're not wrong. But.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:49 PM ^
Please don’t wreck my narrative with unnecessary facts.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:20 PM ^
Alabama's 288 total yards was their lowest total yardage in a game in SIX YEARS. And they still beat Clemson 24-6 in that previous low-yardage game
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:23 PM ^
My main observation of Will Johnson (and Rod Moore) is that when Bama threw deep against them they had utterly dominated the routes. If you had told me on 1/1/20 when Bama’s receivers carved through our defense like butter that this would happen in four years, I would have… yeah, you know the rest.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:36 PM ^
Real test comes Monday.
I thought we were going to get Washington in the 2/3 game in the Rose Bowl, so I went back and really studied them. (Georgia and Texas in the 1/4...sorry FSU, I never thought you were getting in).
If Washington only had Odunze, I'd be like fine. Even Odunze and McMillan in the slot. No problem, we have Johnson and Sainristil.
But then Polk started going off and then what really changed was they started running the ball with success.
Mason Graham is going to have to deliver another MVP performance. Penix isn't nearly as good when you move him off his spot and that requires pressure up the middle. And we have to be able to stop the run without committing extra bodies.
I think Washington is going to see Alabama and assume we're going to blitz Penix to get him off his spot. I see a lot of short quick passes. We have to be ready for tips and overthrows and we have to be able to get pressure with 4.
Colson and Barrett had a blast flying up to stop Milroe. Now they're going to have to cover zones, swing passes, etc.
Odunze is more physical than Harrison, so Johnson is going to have his hands full, Rome will push off without extending.
Anyone know if Makari Paige is going to be back? We're going to need him in the worst way. All hands on deck on the back end.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:37 PM ^
Sorry for the thread hijack.
Michigan won. Most wins in school history. Michigan no longer has a losing record versus Bama.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:42 PM ^
I have to agree. Warshington is what we expected OSU to be with MHJr, Egbuka, Fleming/Tate/Inniss.
If Dillon Johnson doesn't play, we can focus more on the pass than we were probably going to. I know Penix and Co™️ are the bigger threat, but Johnson has been putting in work.
January 3rd, 2024 at 9:58 AM ^
Since Coach Harbaugh started in 2015, he has led Michigan to worsening their records from positive-to-even or from even-to-negative against 5 teams.
- Florida State (2016 Orange Bowl) 1-1
- South Carolina (2017 Bowl) 1-2
- Alabama (2019 Bowl) 2-3*
- Georgia (2021 Peach Bowl) 1-2
- TCU (2022 Bowl) 0-1
He's improved from negative-to-neutral-against 3 teams. Yes, Alabama is on both lists, as the loss in 2019 dropped to negative, and this year's win made things even.
- Alabama (2023 Rose Bowl) 3-3
- Army (2019) 5-5
- Brigham Young (2015) 1-1
In almost every respect, Harbaugh has put Michigan in a better place than it was when he arrived; however, "unfinished business" is a heck of motivator to stick around. His team will have at least one opportunity next year, against Texas (0-1), and maybe another one or two in a bowl game against Georgia, FSU, Tennessee (0-1), or Oklahoma (0-1). It might take a few years to even the mark against USC (4-6). Better put a few extra years on that contract extension.
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:40 AM ^
Washington is the fourth-best team Michigan has played this year.
Michigan is the best team Washington has played this year.
People are losing their mind over UW's offense. UW's offense is really good. But so is Michigan's. And whereas Michigan has the best defense in the country according to SP+, Washington... has the 44th best. They're the Iowa Basketball of college football.
Look, I'll be the first to admit that you need to be careful with raw stats. But consider this for one moment. UW's admittedly great offense has scored 37.6 points per game so far this year, good for 10th in the FBS. However, they've ceded 24.1 -- their average game is approximately equal to Michigan's worst. Meanwhile, Michigan has "only" scored 36.0 points, a mere 14th in the FBS. But they've only allowed 10.2. UW's margin of +13.5 is very good. Michigan's margin of +25.8 is elite. It's among the top 2 or 3 in the country (slightly ahead of Georgia, slightly behind Oregon, and the NCAA site doesn't pre-compute it so I stopped at that point.
The fancystats say much the same thing. Michigan is a pronounced favorite in this game -- even more so than the Vegas line would indicate.
January 3rd, 2024 at 7:40 AM ^
Washington is not the 4th best team Michigan has played this year. That just bullshit.
Washington would mop the floor with PSU, just like Ole Miss did. PSU is not elite. They beat up on a shitty B1G and looked below average against Michigan, OSU and Ole Miss. I don't care what numbers say, the B1G offenses are terrible...PSU is just "the best of the rest." PSU is not on the level of Michigan or OSU.
Washington may also be better than OSU as a team, it's just when you play OSU, there is the added rivalry stuff that makes shitty Michigan teams of the past hang with OSU during some of those years. Or Auburn/Alabama this year.
Who did OSU play this year? Michigan. Washington played Oregon twice and Texas and won all 3. Oregon and Texas are both better than Penn St.
Washington, IMO, isn't necessarily better than Alabama...but they're a worse matchup than Alabama, and that's all that matters.
They key to beating Washington, IMO is the thing we haven't shown this year.
We have to start CRAZY fast, I'm talking first two drives, two TDs. Washington is equipped to pass and score quick, but Minter against any one dimensional offense is advantage Michigan.
If Michigan is trying to defend an elite passing attack + the run game. That's a tough ask.
In all 3 OSU games, we're playing from ahead (although we didn't start fast in '22). We need Monday's defensive effort paired with the best parts of JJ vs. TCU (which was probably his best and worst game passing). Couple that with Blake running and controlling the clock...and that's a recipe, IMO, to beat anyone. A better way of saying it is...we need everyone's best game/best effort.
January 3rd, 2024 at 8:51 AM ^
"Washington, IMO, isn't necessarily better than Alabama...but they're a worse matchup than Alabama, and that's all that matters."
Gonna disagree here... Washington's offense is what OSU wants to be. It's what the Michigan defense practiced for all year - even against teams where it wasn't the best defense. I worry about Penix dropping dimes, but I'm hoping he won't be dialed in like he was Monday. That was an other-worldly experience - he didn't miss ANYTHING, and I'm betting he can't duplicate it. (Actually, I do recall one overthrow late because hooted and hollered about it.)
I don't fear UW's running game, even if Johnson is healthy. I was suprised, honestly, that UW won the Joe Moore Award for best OL - I don't see it. I also do not fear UW's defense. I can see JJ and Blake feasting while owning the ball for long stretches of time.
Michigan is going to ToP this game to death to keep Penix off the field. And other than Michigan shooting itself in the foot by getting too cute (ie: the Alabama offensive game plan), I can't see UW having a lot of defensive success.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:50 AM ^
Washington isnt going to be easy but a one man show vs Michigan Ill take it. Alabama has an NFL ready roster and Nick Saban. I wouldnt want to play them over anyone other than maybe Georgia.
Washington is TCU with CJ Stroud as my comparison. If we lose the fucking yips and the refs dont swing several touchdowns their way we look good. In my mind I think if Penix gets hot and throws 4 bombs thats still only 28 points. We cant have running issues like TCU or give up big chunk runs like we did vs TCU. Penix will get some but keep them in the 20s in scoring that will be key.
No more multiple shaky pants shitting plays.
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:06 AM ^
If the last few years of college football haven't taught you that non-Playoff bowl games depend greatly upon motivation, I don't know what to tell you.
- SP+ -- PSU is better than Washington.
- Sagain -- PSU is better than Washington.
- Massey -- Washington is better than Alabama (!) and PSU, but Michigan is 71% likely to win anyway.
- ESPN FPI -- PSU is better than Washington.
- FEI -- PSU is better than Washington.
I could keep going. There are a few things driving this narrative:
- People have a bias toward offense. High-scoring offenses are more fun, so we overrate that side of the ball. Remember how giddy we were to see Denard carve people up in September every year?
- Salience and/or recency bias. UW's most recent games, and most memorable games, have been great offensive performances against good teams. Nobody's thinking back about their lackluster performances against teams like ASU. (Meanwhile: name Michigan's worst game -- is it the shutout of Iowa?)
- Tendency to overrate the opponent as a shield against disappointment. If Michigan loses, "see? I told you UW was better than people thought."
We've had 14 games to know who these teams are, and the unbiased sources are clear: Michigan is a large favorite to win this game. It doesn't guarantee they will -- I don't have to remind anybody of counterexamples -- but it's UW who absolutely must play their best game of the season to win. Michigan would be well advised to do the same -- but they just beat Alabama with an F special teams performance and a B+ offense. If both teams bring their A game, Michigan should win by multiple scores.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
(Meanwhile: name Michigan's worst game -- is it the shutout of Iowa?)
A 7 point win vs Maryland.
Michigan would crush ASU and Washington would blow the doors off of Maryland. I do agree with everything you put down. If Corum can light up Alabama on the ground we should have a good feeling vs Washington. The running game can seal games where the passing game can be less reliable on a down to down basis.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:29 PM ^
Not a rose bowl fact but the Washington Huskies team defense ranks in the 90s.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:36 PM ^
Don't get cocky
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:50 PM ^
I'm simply passing along NCAA stats. They give up over 440 yards a game. They have given up 44 TDS to Michigan 16. It's not cocky, it's just stats.
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:43 AM ^
Although I agree that raw NCAA stats are useless, 27th is still not championship quality.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:39 PM ^
According to SP+, Washington's defense is worse than Minnesota and about equivalent to Michigan State (#44 vs. #45). I know SP+ is kind of a gold standard in many places but I just flat out refuse to believe that a team could win 14 games if their defense is only as good as Staee's
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:47 AM ^
Am I somehow the only person who watched both Oregon and Texas receivers run through the UW secondary for seemingly 60 yards with nobody inclined to so much as breathe on them?
The main advantage of the computer stats is that they're unbiased. UW's defense really isn't good. It's not abject -- but frankly, neither was Staee's, except against the best offenses they faced. And keep in mind, SP+ is garbage-time adjusted, so the fact that MSU spent most of the UM and UW games in garbage time isn't held against it.
I'm not saying Michigan will put up 49 points, like they did vs. Staee. I am saying they could.
January 3rd, 2024 at 8:55 AM ^
I do agree with you about UW's defense - they don't scare me. But I also think you're not giving UW any credit at all for being 14-0. This team is GOOD. They didn't beat Oregon twice, USC, Utah, Arizona, and Texas because they're not good. C'mon, dude - show a little reality!
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:36 PM ^
Here's a sweet fucking picture I took from my seats. And by "took from my seats" I mean found on the internet.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:36 PM ^
Charles Woodson has said that if this team wins the next game, they are the greatest team in Michigan history.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:17 AM ^
Modern history? Yes. I have a hard time accurately comparing them to the eras of Crisler and earlier.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:35 AM ^
Could the eras of Crisler and earlier possibly compare? Players continue to get bigger, faster, stronger. Offensive and Defensive schemes have never been better or more complex. Could schedules and opponents then have possibly been this difficult? The NFL was not even a viable option for many college stars after school ended, let alone the juggernaut of elite athleticism it’s become today.
I’m guessing this Michigan team (144) would make any National Championship team from 1948 or prior look like a very good High School team now.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:40 AM ^
It's an entirely different game. That's why statistical caveats are always used.
Pre-Integration, for one. Many Negro League players would have dominated MLB had they been allowed to play. And many did while past their prime.
EDIT: I was agreeing with you in thought, but the english may not have cooperated.
January 3rd, 2024 at 9:42 AM ^
I hadn’t even thought about the integration component. Great point!
January 3rd, 2024 at 8:56 AM ^
No worries - Craig Ross will do that for us on a RoundTable in the near future...
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:40 PM ^
6 sacks for 57 yards.
Take that from the passing game (like we should), and the Alabama passing game generated 59 total yards.
Yes, this means that the rushing total was actually 229, but this makes the stats reflect the reality of the game better.
More to the point: it means that Washington now has to face a team that held Alabama's passing game to 59 total yards.
And their running back just got hurt.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:44 PM ^
A broken Penix is right 2 times a day.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:07 PM ^
i believe I heard 6 sacks was the most a Saban lead Alabama team has ever giving uo ?
January 2nd, 2024 at 11:07 PM ^
If you add Ohio State and Michigan State's bowl game scores to Bama's score, Bama still loses.
Tommy Rees competed against Denard Robinson (again) and lost (again).
January 2nd, 2024 at 11:57 PM ^
That's the quantitative analysis that sets this website apart!!! +1
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:29 AM ^
We gave up zero sacks and recorded 6. To me that was the game.
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:03 AM ^
End of regulation, the game was at the under. If OT featured only a FG, the under still would have hit. But because of the TD, it went over.
Still waiting to see the final tally, but the books needed Michigan to win.
January 3rd, 2024 at 7:02 AM ^
This is the first time in the history of the CFP that Alabama has missed the championship round two years in a row.