OT--World Series Prediction Thread

Submitted by SFBlue on

It is clear from my handle where my loyalties lie on this one.  The World Effing Series is a pretty big deal in these parts, comparable to Ann Arbor on Gameday, with people being out on the streets, dudes getting stoked, and the bars packed.  VIVA GIGANTES!!!!!

This is a terrific match up if you like pitching and defense, and my prediction is Royals in six, based on the following metrics: Intangibles (favors Royals); starting pitching (draw); bull pen (slight Giants lean); defense (slight Gians lean); line-up (favors Royals).  

Hope I am wrong, but I think it comes down to the Royals swinging the hotter bats, and the series starting in KC giving them some juice.  So who you got?

MoJo Rising

October 21st, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^

But I would love to see The Royals win. The team has been a basket case for so long that having them win would be a nice thing to see and would give Cubs fans some hope that if KC can do it, so can the Cubs!

SFBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 4:39 PM ^

The feeling I get from media and/or social media is that America is generally behind the Royals, as they are a feel-good story (sort of like the Giants in 2010, when they had ofer-ed their last three Series appearances, and were the likeable by-product of good coaching, moxie, and Tim Lincecum).  According to some calculations, the Giants are 46% less lovable without Tim Lincecum. 

The Dude

October 21st, 2014 at 5:26 PM ^

for all Cubs fans, but I do not have any hope for the Cubs in the near future. It is a feeling that is similar to how I feel about Michigan-Michigan State this weekend. Thankfully I have the Blackhawks and Packers...

Anyways back to the topic...I would like to see KC win, but I think the Giants in 6. 

MoJo Rising

October 21st, 2014 at 7:22 PM ^

1. The OP is rooting for San Fran

2. I would think there are more UM alums in SF than in KC. 

3. I know more SF fans than KC fans. For awhile, some would probably scratch their head if you told them KC had a baseball team. That is how bad they have been in the past! 

 

But, I am seeing that there are many pulling for KC so my initial speculation was wrong. 

BOX House

October 21st, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^

Was thinking the same thing - the best teams haven't been winning the championship of late. Heck, the Giants have won 2 out of the last 4, and I certainly don't think they've had the types of seasons that would suggest they've been worthy of that feat (not to take anything away from them). But how do you even fix that? It's not like the baseball playoffs are any different than the other major sports'.

SFBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^

Baseball has become more like hockey over the last fifteen years.  Speaking purely as a baseball fan, I think the best outcome would be to watch Scherzer pitch to Puig; to watch Kershaw pitch to Cabrera; or to have a freeway series. 

What the MLB intended in expanding the post-season was to increase the TV revenue draw by having more games and expanding the season.  I love watching the Giants, and they have earned their two series victories, paid off by tragedies in '62 and '02, among other things.  However, the Series matchups were a lot better, and more exciting, before the Division Series.  

BlueinOK

October 21st, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^

SF in six games. I live in Royal country and the fans are crazy here. After 29 years I don't blame them, but they are hard to stand right now. 

SFBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^

Yes, Holland, Herrara, and Davis have been historically good throughout the regular season, and pitched well into the playoffs.  But the Giants bullpen is hot too, with Petit, Casilla, Affeldt, and Lopez all at 0.00 for the postseason over 23 combined innings. 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/sf/san-francisco-gian…

Add to that Romo and Strickland (who got banged around a bit this post-season, but he's good).      

rob f

October 21st, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^

Royals have been playing not like the 9th or 10th best team (as someone else above says), but like truly one of the best teams in baseball over the last 2 months or so.  Only reason it doesn't end in 5 or 6 is that Ned Yost is the modern-day equivalent of Mayo Smith, a manager who just happens to be in the right place at the right time.  Royals are just good enough to overcome a  head-scratcher of a move or two by Ned.

LSAClassOf2000

October 21st, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

The base matchup (i.e., if you played a random game) on Massey's simulator actually slightly favors the Royals, but if you keep running the best of seven simulator the Giants actually win most of the time in their simulations interestingly enough. As for me, I would tend to lean with the Giants based on the numbers (probably in six), but part of me is at least interested in seeing if the Royals can chuck the numbers and pull it off. 

Rico616

October 21st, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

SF in 6. You say Royals get the intangibles edge but this will be SF third trip in five years. The experience has to mean something. KC was on a hot streak but they haven't played in a week. Also will the games in SF play a big role not because of home field but because of pitchers hitting. Madison Bumgardner has 4 homers this year I believe. That's a pitcher helping his own cause.

Intangibles: SF
Coaching: SF
SP: SF
Bullpen: KC (barely)
Hitting: SF
Defense: KC
Speed: KC

I have SF in 6.

DK81

October 21st, 2014 at 5:38 PM ^

in 6. I really hope the Royals don't win. The last thing Tigers fans want is the defending world champs in their division. If the Royals lose we have a much better chance of signing James Shields if Max leaves via FA.

JBE

October 21st, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^

I highly doubt the Tigers go after Shields. If anything, they throw that Max money at Price. As a Tigers fan, I would love to see a team from the Central win the WS, especially a team that hasn't been there in a while like KC.

bronxblue

October 21st, 2014 at 6:01 PM ^

Giants are going to win this, probably in 6.  Royals got hot and have been playing great recently, but it's a flawed team that has gotten by with a good deal of luck.  I don't see that continuing.

skurnie

October 21st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^

Good luck to the Royals. I really want them to win. Giants have won often and recently and would love this for KC fans. That said, i do think the Giants win in 6 or 7

Subrosa

October 21st, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^

And I have been for 25+ years. I've lived in SF for 20 years. I work here. I watch 90-95% of the games each season. I mentioned Buster Posey in my wedding vows. I once threatened to quit my job if my boss didn't let me go to Opening Day. You get the idea.

To the OP, I think you've got your leans all wrong. Our lineup is significantly better than theirs, even with Ishikawa in LF. Their bullpen is significantly better than ours. Their defense is a bit better than ours. Our starting pitching is a bit better than theirs. Our manager is a lot better than theirs. To the extent that experience matters (which it usually doesn't), we obviously have it over them in spades.

As for a prediction, I have no freaking clue. I keep thinking that the Giants are definitely, obviously, for SURE going to lose this series and I keep being wrong. NFW we were better than the 2010 Phillies, or the 2010 Rangers, or the 2014 Nationals, or the 2012 Reds (sorry, even as an AL Tigers rooter, I think we were the better team in 2012). But we beat all those teams. We also beat some teams that weren't all that much better or were significantly worse (helloooooo Cardinals!) but the media didn't see it in advance so we weren't favored.

This series FEELS like a straight-up push. Which, given that I'm usually terrified because we're going to get creamed, makes me even MORE terrified. Sort of. IDK. The NotDodgers won the World Series this year. The NotCardinals also did. We won the pennant. If we lose this series, I won't be crushed. I certainly won't be surprised.

(I don't think we will, though. Giants in 6.)

SFBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 7:48 PM ^

I hope you are right that the Giants will grind it out.  A lot rides on whether we get the September/August Peavy, or the May/June/July Peavy. 

I agree with you re the bullpen, batting, and starting pitching based on regular season stats alone, but the Royals line-up has been better in the post-season, even considering the DH, in terms of average and power stats.  That may change if Morse can DH all games (he's hitting seventh today), but I am not sure he has much more in him than that Kirk Gibson like HR in game 5.  He hasn't been in the lineup since August....  You could argue the Giants have had better post-season starting pitching, but Vogelsong and Hudson have been leaky.  As for the bullpen, see the link in my earlier post, the Giants pen is the reason they are still playing right now, Petit and Casilla in particular. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 7:02 PM ^

Would like to see the Royals in 7 on a miraculous last play but in reality it'll likely be Giants in 5 or 6.

I don't understand how people don't like this series and argue these aren't the two best teams. Who SHOULD be in this game then?? The fucking Dodgers or Nationals and...the teams the Royals just rolled over? Umm, No Thanks. The Giants have proven how great a team they are over the past few years and this Royals team is just flat out brilliant. A good series to have. I'm a Braves fan, unfortunately.

Rico616

October 21st, 2014 at 8:02 PM ^

Well they're saying that because over the course of 162 games they weren't the best teams. They just happened to get hot at the right time which is key in sports playoffs. I personally think KC is under matched here. Their speed, defense, and bullpen make them difficult come October baseball, just don't think all around they are as good as SF. That's why you play the game though.

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 8:44 PM ^

Yea I get that they weren't the teams with the best records but again, the Giants don't have to prove anything (2 Titles in 4 years) and the Royals have THEE best record in baseball since the AS break. I just feel like these teams are majorly under-appreciated. It's not like the NBA where 8 teams make the playoffs. Again, if they're not LA or Boston, they're "lowly" teams who just got hot. In reality, they're just really good. They're a few games off the leaders over 162 games, are we really disputing they can't be considered the best?

*I don't direct all of this at you, just more of my opinions in general on the teams.