OT: Tigers' playoff rotation set
Per the Tigers' official Twitter feed, via BYB, the Tigers have set their playoff rotation:
Game 1: JV
Game 2: Fister
Game 3: Sanchez
Game 4: Scherzer
Game 5: JV (if necessary)
That's a scary rotation, if you ask me. If our offense wakes up, we could make a very solid run. Speaking of the offense though, I haven't heard anything about Martinez possibly joining the team. Earlier in the season, I thought the word was that he would be good to go for a postseason run, as long as we made it. But I haven't heard anything about his status for a while, which makes me think he's not going to play at all.
How are you feeling about our series against the A's?
October 5th, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^
I've been saying for the last month: WORLD SERIES CHAMPS! BOOK IT
October 5th, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^
Per HardBallTak anyway, he was officially ruled out for 2012 back in the middle of August - (LINK)
Rand had said back at that time that Martinez had run out of time in rehab and would focus on being ready for 2013.
As for that rotation, I think we have the advantage in the first two games, with the third being a toss-up perhaps and the fourth being a good performance by Scherzer. It makes me go with the Tigers in 4.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^
For as good as the A's rotation looks on paper, I'd have to give the nod to Detroit at least those first two games.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
We actually have the best rotation in the AL (of the qualified playoff teams). Patrick OKennedy, over at BYB, did a piece on the rotations for all the AL playoff teams, and we're pretty far ahead of the pack. Here's the link to his article.
These are the most interesting pieces of his research:
Ranking American League Rotations, 2012
| FIP Rank | Team | FIP | ERA |
| 1 | Detroit | 3.56 | 3.76 |
| 3 | Oakland | 3.98 | 3.78 |
| 4 | Texas | 4.02 | 4.26 |
| 6 | New York | 4.16 | 4.07 |
| 8 | Baltimore | 4.51 | 4.44 |
American League Starting Pitchers, Playoff Rosters *
(Min 140 innings, thru October 1st)
| Rank | Pitcher | FIP | ERA |
| 1 | Verlander (DET) | 2.95 | 2.64 |
| 2 | Scherzer (DET) | 3.28 | 3.82 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish (TEX) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| 4 | Fister (DET) | 3.32 | 3.38 |
| 5 | Sabathia (NYY) | 3.34 | 3.38 |
| 6 | Parker (OAK) | 3.44 | 3.47 |
| 7 | Colon (OAK) | 3.83 | 3.43 |
| 8 | Kuroda (NYY) | 3.90 | 3.34 |
| 9 | Porcello (DET) | 3.92 | 4.59 |
| 10 | Milone (OAK) | 3.93 | 3.74 |
| 11 | Wi Yin Chen (BAL) | 4.43 | 4.02 |
| 12 | Harrison (TEX) | 3.26 | 4.04 |
| 13 | Hughes (NYY) | 4.57 | 4.23 |
| 14 | Nova (NYY) | 4.61 | 5.02 |
Obviously, Oakland's whole team has been on fire, but our rotation really stands out compared to the competition.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
what about the bullpen though? they havent been as solid...
October 5th, 2012 at 4:07 PM ^
seems like a pretty pointless stat here. We're going to be using the same fielders we've been using all season, it's not like that's changing. ERA, or any other number of statistics could be more useful, though, the Tigers still probably have the best rotation among that group.
Now our bullpen on the other hand...
October 5th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^
Short series are a coin flip(ask my Braves about that in 2000 or 2001 or 2002 or 2003 or 2004 or... well you get the point) The important thing is (as the Tigers have done) to get a seat at the table. Anytime you have the best hitter and pitcher in baseball you have a puncher's chance. The A's look to be the easier of the two opponents the Tigers could have drawn, but they've been red hot for two solid months. I'll say Tigers in 5 with a masterful JV performance in Game 5.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:23 AM ^
Would be very Braves-esque if they somehow managed to end Medlen's streak today
October 5th, 2012 at 11:39 AM ^
Oh I'd been trying to figure out how they could dong-punch me this year and one up 2010 (POSEY WAS OUT DANGITT) or 2011(well that) and this streak is just the absolute perfect thing. I'd almost wanted him to lose so they couldn't set up this situation.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^
Hey at least they can't trot Brooks Conrad out there to play second base today
October 5th, 2012 at 11:59 AM ^
True. And if you remember that Giants series in 2010 was the same weekend we lost to MSU in football...so yeah not a fun sports weekend.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:52 PM ^
The Tigers got shelled in game 6 of the ALCS after the MSU game last year, I know the feeling.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^
Colin Cowherd picked the Tigers to win it all yesterday.
I think he's as full of shit as anyone, I get it. But he picked my team, so this time he's a national sports treasure and clearly knows what he's talking about.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^
Jason Stark of ESPN today picked the Tigers to lose in 7 to the Giants. So he is clearly knows what he's talking about and has keen insight and perspective on the upcoming games EXCEPT FOR he's obviously being a homer and a completely misinformed, biased idiot when it comes to the last game of the Series.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^
What would happen if Drew Sharpe picked the Tigers to go all the way?
October 5th, 2012 at 12:06 PM ^
He'd still be an asshole. He'd be an insightful asshole but he'd still be an asshole.
October 5th, 2012 at 1:12 PM ^
I'd check to see if he was feeling well, poor guy would probably have a fever or something.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^
A's have really good pitching which is scary, but so do we if Scherzer can get it back. I like this Tigers team because they have all pretty much been in the post-season at this point (although Yankees have too LOL) which makes me feel better about not shitting the bed with nervous errors.
As to V-Mart I would let him sit even if he was "ready." Let him join the team next year from the beginning and get his timing right. Don't want to fuck up a good... errr decent thing on offense by shifting it up at this point.
All I can hope for is that we take pitches early and wear into that staff (they sure are planning on doing that to us). The more you take in the beginning of a series the more you are comfortable with later in a series. We just can't drop a game by giving them extra chances by making errors. And I sure hope we don't run into any buzzsaw mode teams this year like Texas was when we got to them last year. Fucking A.
Oh and God, the Master, Flying Spahgetti Monster, whatever... if it isn't too much to ask can you not rain delay BOTH games Verlander is set to pitch this post season like you did to us last year? It really fucked us in the asshole. KTHNXBAI.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:32 AM ^
October 5th, 2012 at 12:12 PM ^
Hoping the winner of this series goes all the way
October 5th, 2012 at 11:35 AM ^
Slightly off topic, but why did we get the noon start on Sunday for game 2? I thought we'd get a 4 PM at least to make it an afternoon game for the Oakland fans. Now I have to leave Purdue at 5 AM to rush back to Detroit to go to the game. Jerks.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:38 AM ^
Nicely played humblebrag there bro....tickets to both the Purdue game AND game two for the Tigers I see.
October 5th, 2012 at 2:40 PM ^
He must read your posts.
October 5th, 2012 at 9:07 PM ^
This has gone on long enough. I graduated from Michigan in 1981, started my career, worked hard and over the course of 30+ years of employment and countless moves and relocationss was fortunate enough to make a pretty decent living, have a beutiful and loving wife and children and now I enjoy following Michigan sports.
Obviously that really bothers you for some untold reason but that's your problem, not mine. Your blog name translates to "know theyself" and it would be my suggestion to focus more on your life (whatever that might be) and quit being angry at mine.
October 5th, 2012 at 9:12 PM ^
You have to admit that it's kind of funny that the person who calls him out for the humblebrag is the same person who slips in the fact that he has/had season tickets to the Browns, Cavs, Indians games on a regular basis.
October 5th, 2012 at 10:58 PM ^
Except I don't have season tickets to the Indians (and have never claimed to)....I USED to have season tickets to the Cavs but gave them up and now have Michigan football and the Browns.
BTW..you're still #1 in my book for your RTD outing no matter what you think/post about me. And I always upvote you (even now when you're basically sniping me) because of it
And Nosce nas had a major issue with me for some time now and I have no idea why. It's like the guy lives to see anything I post and then goes after it. If his life sucks that's not my fault nor it is my problem.
Edit: And exactly how is having season tickets to shitty teams like the cavs and the browns a humblebrag anyways?
October 6th, 2012 at 8:23 AM ^
I don't have any problem at all with you telling people you have/had season tickets to anything. It normally adds context to your comments about whichever Cleveland team was the topic of your comment.
I admit I didn't know the history between you and Nosce.
PS: I feel your pain. I went to over 30 Tigers games in 2003. It helped that tickets were about $5. I think I saw at least 20-25 losses. It was a fun year.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^
October 5th, 2012 at 11:39 AM ^
Game times are 12:07 PM Sunday (MLB network only) and 9:07 PM Tuesday. Sort of interesting that Sanchez is going before Scherzer. Maybe Leyland wanted to give Scherzer an extra days rest (Wednesday will be 6 days rest).
I give the advantage to the Tigers because the A's in general do not hit well for average, strike-out more frequently, and rely on big extra base hits (mostly HR's). Feeds into the Tiger's starters hands, who are all (somewhat) strike-out pitchers.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^
Last month, the Tigers officially announced V-Mart was done for the season. They want him to make a full recovery and be 100% for the start of spring training next year.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8279025/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-return-season
October 5th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^
That's exactly how I figured it would go. I would love to see Scherzer earlier but I understand the injury kind of messed up the rotation. I think having JV-Fister-Scherzer 1-2-3 could end this thing in a hurry, but Sanchez stepped up to close the season and could be just as scary. Man, I actually have a good feeling about the Tigers' chances for pretty much the first time all season. Maybe I am just drinking the Kool-Aid.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:57 AM ^
I haz a sad for Porcello. He had such a great rookie season, and seemed to be progressing back to that great form when Sherzer was brought in, but now his era is climbing closer to 5. Hope someone works with him to get his good stuff back. He's shown he can do it.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:10 PM ^
Alright, I don't want to get into the whole traditional vs. advanced metrics debate again... ok, I guess I do. Porcello is essentially the same pitcher today as he was in his rookie season. He actually set career bests for strikeouts and walks allowed this season. His FIP has improved each year, and he was under a 4.00 for the first time in his career this season. The biggest difference between his rookie season and this year is his BABIP: in 2009, it was .277. With a 54% GB rate, he was probably lucky to have a BABIP that low. This year, his BABIP was .344, with a 53% GB rate. Again, that's probably unlucky to have a BABIP that high, but it's hard to say with the quality of the defense behind him.
His rookie season was an abberration. It was probably the worst thing that could have happened to him. We saw "success," plus the hype that he was a future #1 caliber starter, and we thought "We've got a stud young pitcher." But the reality is, he got lucky that year, and we put erroneous expectations on him. He'll never be more than #4 or #5 starter in Detroit, unless they really spruce up the infield defense, or he all-of-a-sudden becomes a more dominant strikeout pitcher.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
That's a really good breakdown. I don't have data to back this up, but it seems like he has a propensity to give up multiple hits in succession and have the big inning (3+ runs).
I think Porcello would be an above-average pitcher in the NL with a great defense behind him.
October 5th, 2012 at 1:32 PM ^
I never thought Porcello was going to be a first choice pitcher, or a world beater, nor did I ever say I did, so that's on you I guess. I'm sad that he's regressed enough that the Tigers had to go out and get guys to replace him, and he's not in the playoff rotation. His HR and BB numbers are down slightly, granted, but I'll give you the two relevant stats that I worry about with him. In his 4 years in Detroit both his Hits Allowed and Runs have climbed steadily from 176 to 226, and 75 to 90+. His WHIP has climbed from 1.34 to 1.53 despite his strikeouts improving. Some of that is on our infield defense, but that's been bad ever since we lost Polanco, and IRod, and Guillen and Inge traded All Star seasons for surgeries. That decent infield defense had been gone for all of Porcellos career, though. He could've used more run support this year, but all our pitchers could. Hopefully next year he can get his ERA back under .400, and stops getting rattled when he gets in a jam. It seems like once he starts getting hit, his confidence goes, and he keeps getting hit. Maybe, like Rodney, he's better off in the bullpen than starting.
October 5th, 2012 at 2:26 PM ^
His BABIP will be perpetually high in Detroit because the infield defense is terrible and has next to no range. On the right team, Porcello's #s would be a lot better.
October 5th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
Secondary to his lack of a strikeout pitch, Porcello's bigest problem is that he has no stamina.
His velocity decreases and he falls apart after 75 pitches.
For his career his K/BB is 1.38 from pitches 75-100, whereas in the first 75 pitches it's 2.40.
This year his K/BB from pitches 76-100 was 1.31 as opposed to 2.97 in the first 75 pitches.
It's kinda baffling how somebody of his size and with now 4 full MLB seasons under his built doesn't have the stamina to consistently throw 100 pitches in a game. After he reaches the 75 pitch mark, he shouldn't be allowed to face a new batter.
I think they'll try and trade him to a NL team this offseason for a RFer, he does still have some trade value, and we could get a solid stop gap RFer until Garcia/Castellanos is ready to take over.
October 5th, 2012 at 3:39 PM ^
His velocity decreases and he falls apart after 75 pitches.
Maybe Porcello and Fister need an off season regimen similar to JV's? If they don't already.
I was disappointed with Fister's physical readiness to pitch from day one this season
As far as an outfielder, I wouldn't trade for one or spend a nickle on one in the off season. Between AJ, Dirks, Q Berry, A. Garcia, Boesch and Castellanos, the Tigers can come up with three OF's on a daily basis. The fact that Avisail Garcia is going to play against lefthanders in the playoffs speaks volumes of the Tiger's belief in him. Let's go with some speed and youth in the OF, if needed another OF is an easy commodity to obtain.
October 5th, 2012 at 3:59 PM ^
I hope they have a better plan than that.
Garcia/Castellanos will both need to take huge steps forward to be ready to hold down a regular spot.
Boesch sucks and will hopefully no long occupy a spot on the 25 man roster.
Berry, if he even makes the team, should be used as a pinch runner, not be given regular playing time in the OF.
Jackson is a beast.
Dirks, I'd be fine with him starting in LF/RF, but only if they improve one of the other OF spots, I view him as more a 4th OFer type long term, but he could prove me wrong and be a solid 3rd OFer.
Fister, those might have just been freak injuries, injuries happen, hard to blame him for that.
Porcello, he needs to change something, because it's annoying watching him lose velocity every game after 75 pitches.
October 5th, 2012 at 4:05 PM ^
You really said everything I was thinking as I was typing, I agree the OF has to be addressed this off-season, but let's not talk off-season yet we play tomorrow night!
October 5th, 2012 at 6:26 PM ^
Mother of god, the Tigers cannot afford to march Delmon and Boesch out there defensively next year. They are quite possibly the two worst defensive players on the team.
The Tigers need to find one, maybe two, plus defenders for their outfield in FA. They don't have to be good, or have bats, but they need to be able to defend (utility guys). VMart coming back will be a huge boost to the offense and make up for any deficiencies there.
The Tigers essentially have minus defenders at every position except CF, SS, 2B and C. They can't afford to have the entire left and right sides of the diamond/field being patrolled by bad defenders with limited range.
October 5th, 2012 at 9:06 PM ^
I'd say they have a minus player at SS.
I'd also say that Cabrera isn't a minus player. He may not have ridiculous range, but he makes the plays he needs to and he's shown that his size can take away some potential frozen ropes down the line.
October 5th, 2012 at 4:03 PM ^
The Tigers desperately need corner outfielding next season, they have next to no power when it comes to the outfield. Jackson is legitmently the only starter there, other than him you're look at guys who are probably 4th outfielders at best (although I haven't seen enough of a sample size to judge Garcia yet, and Nick C is a year or two away still.) Dirks is a fine player to keep and possibly play left field most of next season, but the Tigers need a RF badly and preferably one that has decent power.
October 5th, 2012 at 5:06 PM ^
Tigers do not desperately need a RF. They have won the division without one the last two seasons and two promising prospects are on the horizon. I would be fine with Garcia in Right learning on the job. He has great speed and a plus arm. Let youth be served.
Who knows Castellanos may be ready next April, why invest long term in an OF? If Tiger's are looking for a one year gap filler, then go with Garcia or hope Boesch bounces back. Anyway, corner OF is a marginal need with only marginal improvement likely over what we already have, unless you're talking about big money on Josh Hamilton or some other unlikely scenario.
October 5th, 2012 at 4:09 PM ^
like Porcello to be the #4 guy in the Tigers rotation for the next couple years, especially if he's our Smoltz/Avery when we have Maddox/Glavine in the lineup.
October 6th, 2012 at 2:30 AM ^
October 5th, 2012 at 11:59 AM ^
If Sanchez keeps playing at a high level like he was at the end of the season, this rotation is going to be very, very scary. Man I'm pumped for this series to start!
October 5th, 2012 at 12:10 PM ^
That's a pretty sick rotation for the Tigers. The one area the A's dominate is the bullpen. It all depends if the A's can get the Tigers' starters out early enough to face their bullpen. Oakland is red-hot right now though so anything can happen! Let's hope for a good series.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:22 PM ^
The main area the Tigers are lacking is the bullpen. If the A's can get to the Tigers starters early on, that's going to be their best chance to run up the score. The Tigers are a mystery in terms of scoring runs. Some games they look like they can knock in 12 against good pitchers, while other games, they can't manufacture a run for the life of them. It will be a good series.
October 5th, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^
At this point, I'd rather Martinez just get healthy for next year when Delmon is gone. I wouldn't want to replace Garcia with a 75% healthy Martinez.