OT (sort of): NLI Day - Recruiting - general conversation

Submitted by Amazinblu on February 1st, 2023 at 12:09 PM

Today is "NLI Day" (National Letter of Intent) - not to be confused with NIL, the early signing day has made this a lot less exciting than it was in years past.   This being said, there's still a LOT to talk about when it comes to recruiting, class ranking, what is working, or isn't working with identifying and pursuing prospects, etc.   

A few perspectives which reflect my thinking and opinion.

First, recruiting starts "much earlier" than it did a generation or more ago.   Coaches talk about meeting players when they are in middle school - 7th or 8th grade.

Second, the midwest and, specifically, Michigan - has talent.  However, other parts of the country are "deeper" in talent.  The generally recognized areas of the country with "greater depth" of talent include the southeast, Texas, California, and Ohio.

Third, Michigan's approach when Harbaugh was first hired, was to reach out and conduct / participate in camps across the country to spread the visibility of Michigan, the staff, and identify prospects who would be mutually beneficial to keep in contact.

Fourth, the NCAA decision to "restrict" the geographies where Michigan could participate in / conduct camps noticeably impacted Michigan's ability to gain "mindshare" of prospective players.  This was, IMO, the most detrimental decision which impacts recruiting.   Candidly, I think this decision was egregious and impacts good players significantly - with the number of schools they could be exposed to - and scholarships they could be offered.

Fifth, Michigan's performance the last two seasons and participation in the CFP have increased the visibility of the program around the country.   And, this will help with the "more outward" classes, but players in the next class or two - especially current juniors, have been in the recruiting process for several years and, probably have a short list of five or eight schools already.

The players in the pipeline for the 2024 and 2025 classes, should be strong.   Those players were in early in high school for Michigan's first run in the CFP.  So, they'll have seen more of Michigan playing well.

Finally, people think Harbaugh's discussion about NFL openings has been detrimental to recruiting.  Respectfully, though I understand that perspective, I think the decision to not allow Michigan to participate in / conduct camps in talent rich parts of the county is far more detrimental to recruiting.

So, what do you think?

Rickett88

February 1st, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^

Thought it was interesting that Jaden Rashada signed with ASU, which was the university his father attended, after the whole mess with Florida and Miami (YTM). 

The more interesting thing will be if there was a signed contract and if it can be held against either Rashada or Florida, depending if anyone is in breach. 

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SBayBlue

February 1st, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^

I actually think that ASU will eventually be a second tier power, maybe in 3-4 years. It's location is great ("It's a dry heat"), they are locking down the Valley which has a ton of talent, and Dillingham's age (32) is a draw for a lot of kids. Plus with USC and UCLA going to the Big 10, those are two teams they can't lose to. The Pac 12 will be weaker without those two teams.

They have the highest number of players from the transfer portal, with a number of recruits coming from USC, Texas, and a former 5 star recruit from Oklahoma.

Disclaimer: My kid goes to ASU so they're my second favorite team right now.

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Mercury Hayes

February 1st, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

I know this has been discussed, but I'm still so surprised to not have seen a larger recruiting bump these past two years. I do love the action in the transfter portal and overall am enthusiastic about where the roster/talent will be next year and beyond. But, it would be nice to have a top-3 class to go along with where we are in terms of overall talent/performance on the field.

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matt1114

February 1st, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^

JH flirting with the NFL hurts recruiting. The different approach to NIL has hurt Michigan. Seems like we always have some sort of scandal every year lately with some assistant coach, or we find out a main one doesn't like to recruit. That being said, it isn't about the top classes. We had a top class in 2017 and is just full of people who didn't pan out, transferred, and never heard from ever again.  

 

I think we get held up hoping for a specific player every year and we all get upset we don't land them. This year it's Harbor and Dante Moore, last year it was Walter Nolen, Domani Jackson, and Josh Conerly. 

 

That being said, we have developed so much better than others. Most of our big-name contributors are/were not the top in the class. Haskins, Wilson, Jenkins, Morris, Turner, Sainristil, Gray, Barrett, Schoon, BELL. All 3 stars, and out performed it.  Even Corum was the 12th ranked RB in his class. 

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TK

February 1st, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^

To expect a top 3 class is just wishful thinking. Go check out the classes of those top 3 schools and tell me if Michigan has ever come even remotely close to a class like that. More realistic to hope for classes in the 6-10 range like we have had in the past. 

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blueheron

February 1st, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^

By most classifications Ohio is in the Midwest. It's vulnerable to the same population trends as other Rust Belt schools. Urban Meyer still thinks it's at Georgia's level as a job. :)

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VintageRandy

February 1st, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

The structure of your post is weird. To your point about satellite camps being the most detrimental to Michigan recruiting, I would disagree and say that not having a proactive and coherent NIL approach is the most detrimental. 

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Jkidd49

February 1st, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^

Whole lotta "cope" happening in this thread.

UM recruiting is bad right now and JH flirtation and lack of pay for play NIL are overwhelmingly the reason why. 

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Jkidd49

February 1st, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^

I think you know you're making a ridiculous strawman argument since the total team talent # for Bama and Georgia is wayyyy higher than it is for ND so no I don't think ND is either of those two program but neither is UM and ND is recruiting better than UM despite being a worse team and with the same geographic and academic disadvantage.

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goblue2121

February 1st, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^

I thought your original point was that it was all NIL and coaching related. My point was there are a lot of other factors. We will see how ND's class performs. No one is going to compete year in and year out unless you have a lot of talent in your region. Ohio still produces but it's on the decline. Michigan will have top 10 classes mixed with some top 20. The state producing more talent would help tremendously.

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Magnus

February 1st, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^

I don't know how much the limitations on camps have really affected Michigan recruiting. Michigan's big "advantage" there was identifying under-the-radar recruits, as in 2- or 3-star kids who could contribute at a place like Michigan. But for the most part, Michigan was not gaining a ton of ground with 5- and 4-star kids. Most kids with that kind of talent are going to go to their dream school if they get pursued. In other words, a 5-star kid with a dream of going to Florida is probably going to go to Florida if that interest is reciprocated.

IIRC, Michigan was identifying guys like Antwaine Richardson, Rashad Weaver, Keith Washington, Kingston Davis, Dytarious Johnson, etc. at those camps in Florida, Alabama, etc. Those are not the kids who make or break your program (well, Rashad Weaver was pretty good but also had some troubles). 

It's definitely a disadvantage to be in the midwest at this time, because talent is geographically in the south. But I'm not so sure that a few camps in the south would change the distribution of talent to colleges very drastically.

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TeslaRedVictorBlue

February 1st, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^

That's true - however, we didn't do those camps coming off 2 trips to the playoff and 2 blowouts of osu. We did those camps off 15 years of malaise, mediocrity and shitty everything.

I'd argue that if harbaugh did them now, it would have much more impact and even more so, should we win a National Championship.

It doesn't change his message or the camp itself, but it would attract a lot of interest beyond those 2*s  you mentioned.

Many of the elite guys the past few cycles grew up with Michigan football being a joke, so its unlikely, unless there was some connection, for Michigan to ever be a 5 star's dream school - and even when they've said that, we seem not to get those guys anyway.

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RobM_24

February 1st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^

Fifth, Michigan's performance the last two seasons and participation in the CFP have increased the visibility of the program around the country

I don't think this is true -- at least not to a significant degree. Teams like Michigan and Notre Dame can make runs at the CFP and they still stay in the same recruiting tier as always. Just like the Beilein tournament success never led to a huge upswing in recruiting. IMO, the relevant factors are clearly NIL, geography, and red tape (or lack of red tape) at the institution. Head coach and success are behind that. That's why Harbaugh can be a huge name in the football world, make CFPs, and still not recruit as well as Hugh Freeze recruited at Ole Miss, or as well as any Texas coach with a .500-ish record recruits at Texas. 

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Blue Balls Afire

February 1st, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

I think you’re right, but I also think the last two years was an opportunity for Michigan to change the narrative but Jim’s flirtations with the nfl keep getting in the way. Along with whatever NIL fiasco is hampering Michigan, we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot every time we try to step out. 

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RobM_24

February 1st, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^

I don't think it really matters enough to significantly impact our recruiting. With no NFL talk and hitting the absolute ceiling in recruiting, maybe we have the 16th ranked class instead of the 18th or something. For example, Penn State and Florida are only a few spots ahead of us, but they have 17-18 4*s to our 10. I don't think 7 or 8 extra 4*s were coming our way if Harbaugh never flirted with the NFL. It's clearly NIL, geography, and red tape that holds us back and allows others to prosper. Looking at the top 8 in recruiting:

  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Texas 
  • Oklahoma
  • OSU
  • LSU
  • Miami 
  • Tennessee

It's the same old teams who are always at the top. All with good geography and/or NIL war chests -- but about half of them have had minimal success on the field (and have unproven HCs). While CFP teams Michigan and TCU, with successful coaches, are 18th and 19th. My main point being, you are who you are in recruiting, regardless of HC and success. You can move within a certain range within your tier, but you aren't going to jump tiers (without money). I'm trying to think of exceptions to this (with sustained recruiting success), and I'm not coming up with much. Maybe Gonzaga basketball, but they haven't won a championship, and it took a long, long time. 

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BoCanHam15

February 1st, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^

This Damn horse must have iron lips!  Over, and over and over again!  Harbaugh, Warde, nilifications.  Our AD sucks.  Harbaugh sucks.  BACKICH sucks.  Please get rid of Hutch.  Fire Juwan, NOW!  Sam Webb will never get his gut feelings back.

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